# PROFILE: The F-35 depends on China — Beijing's rare earths time bomb

> Every F-35 Joint Strike Fighter contains more than 400 kilograms of rare earth elements. Dysprosium, terbium, neodymium — chemical elements whose names

- Author: Maxime Marquette
- Publisher: MadMax (https://mad-max.co)
- Section: Profile
- Published: 2026-07-01
- Canonical URL: https://mad-max.co/en/article/portrait-le-f-35-depend-de-la-chine-la-bombe-a-retardement-des-terres-rares-de-p

## Introduction: The magnet that holds the war together

### One F-35, more than 400 kilograms of rare earths

Every **F-35 Joint Strike Fighter** contains more than **400 kilograms of rare earth elements**. **Dysprosium**, **terbium**, **neodymium** — chemical elements whose names evoke science fiction but whose reality is entirely concrete: without them, the **actuators**, the **electronic warfare systems**, the **missiles**, and the **permanent magnets** that give this aircraft its lethal precision would simply not function. And **China** controls roughly **85% of global rare earth processing** and more than **90% of global magnet production**. This reality, documented by the **Center for Strategic and International Studies**, represents one of the deepest strategic vulnerabilities of the **United States** and its allies.

In **June 2026**, this vulnerability entered a new critical phase. Chinese rare earth **exports to Japan** fell by **34% year over year** between **January and April 2026**. Exports of **dysprosium** and **terbium** to Japan dropped to **zero starting January 2026**. The **NDAA 2026** requires the United States to ban Chinese-origin rare earths from its defense systems by **2027** — a deadline industry experts consider nearly impossible to meet.

### What the numbers reveal

In **2024**, the United States still imported **80% of its rare earths**, according to the **US Geological Survey**. For certain elements — **dysprosium**, critical for magnets, **samarium**, vital for military applications — China's dominance in processing reaches **99%**. Not 85%, not 90%: **99%**. **China** does not merely produce rare earths — it controls the chemical processing that makes them usable for the Western defense industry.

For **Japan**, the data are even more stark. In **March 2026**, Chinese rare earth exports to Japan had fallen by **88%**. In **April 2026**, still **82%**. **Yttrium**, used in anti-corrosion coatings on many military systems, dropped by more than **90%**. These reductions are not accidental — they are part of a deliberate strategy by **Beijing** to use its dominance as a geopolitical lever.

*The United States spent trillions building the F-35, the most sophisticated combat aircraft in history. And a magnet — the size of a palm — could render it useless if Beijing decides to turn off the tap. That is the paradox of the technological superpower dependent on another superpower for its critical raw materials.*

## Beijing tested the rare earths weapon — and it works

### The 2025 trade war as a dress rehearsal

In **April 2025**, in response to the trade war launched by the **Trump** administration, **China** imposed export restrictions on seven types of rare earths and magnets used in the defense, energy, and automotive sectors. The American response? A partial capitulation. According to **Foreign Policy**, "the absolute dependence of the United States" on raw and processed rare earths from China led them to "back down completely to the status quo ante." In **June 2025**, during negotiations in London, both sides reached a truce: China would approve rare earth exports in exchange for American trade concessions.

That truce remains fragile. Chinese customs data show that exports of several critical resources to the United States remain roughly **50% below** pre-April **2025** export-control levels. Beijing has reduced the flow without cutting it entirely — a sustained, calculated pressure that maintains American dependence while avoiding a complete rupture that might accelerate Washington's diversification efforts.

### The NDAA 2026: an unrealistic deadline?

The **NDAA 2026** states clearly: starting in **2027**, American defense systems may no longer contain rare earths of Chinese origin. On paper, it is a firm decision. In industrial reality, it is near-impossible within the timeframe. Opening a mine, building chemical processing infrastructure, training a skilled workforce — that takes **ten to fifteen years**, not twelve months.

The **Pentagon** became the principal shareholder of **MP Materials**, the operator of the **Mountain Pass** mine in California, with the ambition of creating an American "mine-to-magnet" supply chain capable of producing the magnets needed for **F-35s**, drones, and submarines. But even with that massive investment, the United States cannot, in the short term, do without China for heavy rare earths. As **Tom Moerenhout** of Columbia University put it: "Reconstituting American ammunition stockpiles will require heavy rare earths — exactly where China holds a near-monopoly."

*The NDAA 2026 sets a deadline that industry leaders themselves consider impossible. Is this real policy or political posturing? I think it is both — a sincere declaration of intent, but unrealistic in its timeline. The intention is good. The execution will be painful.*

## Japan, the first victim of rare earths geopolitics

### Zero dysprosium, zero terbium: the strongest signal yet

**Japan** is the world's largest rare earth importer — and also the ally most exposed to Chinese pressure in this domain. The January-to-April **2026** data are unambiguous: Chinese exports of **dysprosium** and **terbium** to Japan fell to **zero**. Both elements are indispensable for high-performance magnets used in Japanese weapons systems and components supplied to the American defense industry. Without them, industrial production halts — not immediately if stockpiles exist, but inevitably if the blockade persists.

**Japan** had already lived through this scenario in **2010**, when China reduced its rare earth exports following the **Senkaku** islands dispute, sending global prices soaring. The **US-Japan bilateral deal** worth **36 billion dollars** for critical mineral projects signed in **February 2026** reflects exactly that urgency: both countries understand they must act quickly before their maneuvering room disappears.

### Japan's F-35 fleet in Beijing's crosshairs

**Japan** is one of the largest **F-35** operators outside the United States — Tokyo has ordered more than **100 F-35s** of various variants. If deliveries of Chinese heavy rare earths remain at zero, the production and maintenance of these aircraft would eventually be compromised. That is precisely what **Beijing** wants Tokyo to understand: China can affect the defense capability of a key American ally without firing a single shot.

The **Quad** grouping — the United States, Japan, Australia, and India — has begun working on alternative critical mineral supply solutions. **Australia**, which holds significant rare earth reserves, is central to this strategy. But Australia's chemical processing capacity remains limited, and building a full supply chain takes time. In the meantime, the dependency persists.

*I understand Beijing's logic. By blocking rare earths to Japan, China sends a clear message: your defense capability depends on our goodwill. That is unprecedented geopolitical coercion — with no obvious short-term response. What do you do when your supplier is also your strategic adversary? You diversify, slowly, painfully, insufficiently.*

## The race to diversify: too little, too late?

### Alternatives exist but are not yet sufficient

It would be inaccurate to say that the **West** is not responding. The United States, **Australia**, **Canada**, and several countries in **Africa** are exploring and developing their rare earth resources. US Treasury Secretary **Scott Bessent** presented in **November 2025** the first rare earth magnet produced in the United States in **25 years**, manufactured by the South Carolina company **eVAC**. Symbolically, that matters. But one magnet does not make an industrial supply chain.

**Brazil**, which holds the **world's second-largest known rare earth reserves**, is a target of interest for American and Japanese investors. But even alternative extraction sources often still need to pass through Chinese processing infrastructure. The chemical processing of rare earths remains the hardest control point to replicate outside China. **China** controls **90% of global processing** — that is not a figure you reverse in a few years.

### The Ukrainian lesson for Asian security

**Russia's** invasion of **Ukraine** in **2022** showed what it costs to depend on an autocratic power's goodwill for your security. Dependence on Chinese rare earths creates a structurally similar risk for Asian democracies: a single control point, held by a strategically adversarial actor. Beijing can act without firing a shot, without a formal declaration of war, without violating a treaty. It simply withholds export licenses.

President **Zelensky** has actively positioned Ukraine as an alternative supplier of critical materials to the **West** — one dimension of the minerals deal with the United States concluded in early **2025**. **Ukraine** holds significant reserves of rare earths and critical minerals. If the agreement holds and investment follows, Ukraine could become a player in the West's supply chain diversification — benefiting its own reconstruction and the strategic resilience of its allies.

*The West has known since 2010 that this dependency is a major strategic risk. Sixteen years later, that risk is sharper, not less so. We have reports, analyses, laws like the NDAA 2026. What is missing is the sustained will and funding commensurate with what is at stake. Bureaucracy and political immediacy continue to take precedence over long-term strategic resilience.*

## The Xi doctrine: turning monopoly into a weapon

### A strategy planned over decades

In **2020**, President **Xi Jinping** publicly declared the need to "strengthen the dependence of international production chains on China," thereby creating "a powerful countermeasure" against adversary nations. China's dominance over rare earths is the textbook case of that doctrine. China's massive investments in rare earth extraction and processing since the **1980s** were not driven by purely economic logic — they responded to a long-term strategic vision: to transform processing leadership into an instrument of geopolitical coercion.

In **2010**, China cut its exports to **Japan** in response to a minor diplomatic incident over the **Senkaku** islands, sending global prices through the roof. In **2025**, it imposed global restrictions in response to **Trump's** tariffs. In **2026**, it maintains targeted pressure on Japan. Each episode refines the technique. Each Western capitulation confirms the weapon works.

### What Russia cannot replicate, but China can

**Russia** used natural gas as a coercion instrument against Europe — with mixed results, ultimately overcome at considerable economic cost. But Russia does not hold a global monopoly on gas. **Saudi Arabia**, the United States, and **Qatar** were able to substitute, at the price of a painful transition. For heavy rare earths and their processing, China holds a near-monopoly with no equivalent. There is no **Saudi Arabia** of rare earths ready to compensate.

Chinese Defense Minister **Dong Jun**, during a video call with his Russian counterpart **Andrei Belousov** in **January 2026**, called for "strengthening strategic coordination" between Beijing and Moscow. Both powers understand that by combining Russian energy dependency with Chinese rare earth dependency, they create a pressure system on the **West** that is harder to circumvent than either threat taken separately.

*Russia and China play on two different but complementary fronts. Moscow kills Ukrainians and depletes Western weapons stocks. Beijing is gradually strangling the raw material supply chain that would allow the West to rearm. It is an asymmetric coordination that NATO has not yet fully integrated into its strategic planning.*

## Solutions: a decade of work to escape a decade of neglect

### The necessary investments are known

The answer to dependence on Chinese rare earths is not mysterious — it is simply long and costly. The United States needs a full "mine-to-magnet" supply chain: active rare earth mines, chemical separation and processing capacity, magnet factories, strategic security stockpiles. The Pentagon is investing in this direction with **MP Materials** and other initiatives. Europe is working on its own critical mineral projects. **Japan** is diversifying its supply sources toward Australia, Canada, and other countries.

But the pace of these investments remains insufficient given the urgency. Analysts estimate it will take between **ten and fifteen years** to build alternative supply chains capable of replacing China for heavy rare earths. In the best case, a complete supply chain will not be operational before **2035**. Until then, the **F-35**, missiles, drones, and all the defense systems that depend on those magnets remain vulnerable to Beijing's goodwill.

### The role of allies and multilateralism

No country can solve this problem alone. The **G7**, **NATO**, and Indo-Pacific partners must coordinate their investments, share the development costs of mining and processing infrastructure, and create collective strategic stockpiles. Former **NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen** argued in **June 2026** that democracies must act collectively against emerging threats — including strategic economic dependencies. Dependence on Chinese rare earths should be at the top of that collective agenda.

**G7** deliveries to Ukraine are an example of what multilateral coordination can achieve quickly when the political will is there. The same will is needed for rare earths. The problem is less visible than burning tanks — but it is potentially just as decisive for the outcome of future conflicts. An **F-35** without a dysprosium magnet does not fly. It is that simple.

*There is a remarkable irony in the fact that Ukraine, a country at war, could become a supplier of critical minerals to the armies helping it defend itself. The geopolitics of raw materials is rarely this circular. If Ukraine survives and prospers, everyone wins — including the West's defense industrial security.*

## The American industrial response: promising but insufficient

### Mountain Pass and the American mining renaissance

The **Mountain Pass** mine in California is the only active rare earth mine in the United States. Its operator, **MP Materials**, in which the **Pentagon** became the principal shareholder, aims to build a complete magnet production supply chain on American soil. The project, called **10X**, targets the production of magnets for **F-35s**, drones, and submarines. It is a serious ambition, funded by the American taxpayer, driven by a national security rationale.

But Mountain Pass is primarily productive in **light rare earths** — neodymium, praseodymium. Heavy rare earths — dysprosium, terbium — are far rarer on American territory. Measured US reserves are estimated at **3.6 million tonnes** by the US Geological Survey — versus **44 million tonnes** in China. This geological asymmetry is fundamental: even with the best investments, the United States will not become self-sufficient in heavy rare earths without access to resources from partners like Australia, Canada, or India.

### China has decades of head start

Since the **1980s**, **China** has systematically and massively invested in rare earth extraction, processing, and magnet production. It has developed unique industrial expertise, a skilled workforce, and complex chemical infrastructure. Replicating that ecosystem takes time — not because the technology is secret, but because large-scale industrial mastery is difficult to transfer and requires years of learning.

The first magnet produced in the United States in **25 years** by **eVAC**, presented by Secretary **Bessent** in **November 2025**, is an important symbolic milestone. But it is a milestone — not a solution. Between the first demonstration magnet and the millions of magnets needed for American defense systems lies an industrial gulf that neither political enthusiasm nor current budgets will bridge within the deadlines imposed by the **NDAA 2026**.

*I keep returning to that 2027 date imposed by the NDAA. It will pass. And F-35s will continue to carry magnets with Chinese rare earths inside, or they will be grounded for lack of alternative magnets. Both options are unacceptable. Either we need a real plan with massive accelerated funding, or an honest revision of the deadlines. Policy cannot change the laws of industrial geology.*

## Ukraine as a piece in the West's strategic resilience puzzle

### Ukraine's reserves and the minerals deal with the United States

In **2025**, the **United States** and **Ukraine** concluded an agreement on critical minerals, recognizing that Ukraine holds significant reserves of rare earths and strategic minerals. This agreement is more than a commercial arrangement — it is a strategic recognition that Western security also depends on diversifying critical raw material supply chains. A sovereign **Ukraine** integrated into the Western economy could, over the long term, play a role in reducing dependence on Chinese rare earths.

That is one of the reasons why supporting Ukraine is not merely a matter of democratic values — it is also an investment in the industrial and strategic resilience of the **West**. Every Ukrainian resource that remains under Ukrainian rather than Russian or Chinese control is one less resource in the autocracies' coercion arsenal. And every joint production agreement between Ukraine and its allies strengthens the collective capacity to respond to **Beijing's** geopolitical pressure.

### The convergence of threats and the urgency of acting together

The threat of Chinese rare earths cannot be separated from the Russian threat in Ukraine, nor from the North Korean threat in the Pacific. These pressures are linked in a coherent strategy to weaken the **West**: **Moscow** consumes Western weapons stocks in Ukraine, **Beijing** strangles the raw material supply chain that would allow their reconstitution, and **Pyongyang** threatens stability in the Indo-Pacific region. The **West's** response must be commensurate with this convergence.

The agenda of the next **NATO** summit should include, prominently, a collective strategy on critical minerals — with measurable objectives, coordinated investments, and a realistic timeline. The war in Ukraine has demonstrated that the **Atlantic Alliance** can act collectively under pressure. The rare earths pressure is less visible, but it is real. Are we waiting for an **F-35** to be grounded for lack of a magnet before acting?

*I end with this image: the F-35 covering Ukraine from Poland or Romania, its magnets manufactured in China, on a production line that Beijing can shut down by administrative decision. That is the fundamental contradiction of Western security today. It is surmountable. But it demands a political will I do not yet see at the required level.*

## Conclusion: The F-35's magnet tells a war nobody declared

### A dependency that conditions military sovereignty

Dependence on Chinese **dysprosium** and **terbium** is not a technical problem — it is a sovereignty problem. As long as the United States, Japan, and their allies do not control the supply chains of the materials that power their fighter jets, missiles, and air defense systems, their military posture remains conditional on **Beijing's** goodwill. This is not a hypothetical future vulnerability. It is a **2026** reality, documented in Chinese customs data, in **CSIS** analyses, in **Tom Moerenhout's** statements at Columbia.

The **NDAA 2026** states clearly that this dependence must end by **2027**. Industry leaders state clearly that this is impossible within that timeframe. What **Beijing's** rare earth policy reveals is that China has planned this situation over decades. It succeeded. The question now is not whether the West should diversify — that is obvious. The question is whether the West will find the political will and sustained funding to do so before the next crisis reveals the full extent of the accumulated vulnerability.

### The priority the West must set

A coordinated, ambitious plan, sustainably funded over twenty years, is necessary — not political declarations whose horizon ends with the current mandate. The war in Ukraine proved that democracies can act quickly and collectively when they perceive the threat. The threat of Chinese rare earths is real. It is documented. It has already produced its effects in **2025** and **2026**. The urgency that is called for is needed now — before dependence becomes capitulation.

*I end with an uncomfortable thought: Beijing does not need military invasion to constrain Western democracies. It just needs to control the magnets inside their fighter jets. That is twenty-first century warfare: invisible, silent, difficult to explain to voters, but potentially more decisive than any land battle.*

**By Maxime Marquette, columnist**

## Columnist's transparency note

### Editorial stance

I am not a journalist but a **columnist and analyst**. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies.

I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. **I claim analytical clarity**, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events.

### Method and sources

This text keeps the basic distinction between **verified facts and interpretive analysis**. The rule never changes: a factual claim is published only when a verifiable source supports it, and the sources this article actually used are listed under **Sources**, never here.

**Primary source families** used by the publication, when the story has them: official statements from governments and international institutions, public statements by political leaders, reports from intergovernmental organisations, dispatches from recognised international news agencies.

**Secondary source families**: specialised publications, internationally recognised news media, analyses from established research institutions, reports from industry organisations.

When an article cites statistical, economic or geopolitical data, it comes from the institutions that produce it (intergovernmental organisations, central banks, national statistics offices), and the exact institution is named under **Sources**.

### Nature of the analysis

The analyses, interpretations and perspectives in the analytical sections of this article are a **critical, contextual synthesis** based on the information available, the trends observed and the expert comments cited in the sources consulted.

My role is to interpret these facts, to set them in the context of today's geopolitical and economic dynamics, and to give them a coherent meaning within the larger story of the changes shaping our time. These analyses reflect expertise built through continuous observation of international affairs and an understanding of the strategic mechanisms that drive global actors.

This article describes a documented state of affairs on its publication date, not a prediction: later developments may shift its outlook. No update is promised in advance; when an article is corrected or completed, the change is dated in the text.

## Sources

### Primary sources

- [Foreign Policy — China's Rare-Earth Card Looms Over Trump-Xi Summit — May 12, 2026](https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/05/12/trump-xi-china-summit-rare-earth-trade-critical-minerals/)

- [19FortyFive — Analysis on rare earth dependency and American defense — June 2026](https://www.19fortyfive.com/)

- [Foreign Policy — How Rare Earths Became China's Top Trade Weapon — July 1, 2025](https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/07/01/rare-earths-us-china-trade-mineral-supply-chain/)

### Secondary sources

- [The Guardian — China trade war poses threat to US arms firms' rare earths supply — April 16, 2025](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/16/china-trade-war-us-arms-firms-rare-earths-supply)

- [The Guardian — Inside Trump's scramble to reduce US dependence on Chinese rare-earth metals — November 16, 2025](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/nov/16/trump-rare-mineral-dependence-china)

- [The Guardian — Donald Trump and Japan's Sanae Takaichi sign agreement to 'secure' rare earths supply — October 28, 2025](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/28/donald-trump-sanae-takaichi-japan-prime-minister-rare-earths-agreement)

- [Axios — What to know about rare earths in the China-U.S. trade dispute — June 4, 2025](https://www.axios.com/2025/06/04/rare-earths-minerals-metals-china-usa-trade)

---

Source: Maxime Marquette, MadMax. When citing, name the author and link https://mad-max.co/en/article/portrait-le-f-35-depend-de-la-chine-la-bombe-a-retardement-des-terres-rares-de-p