# Mr. Trump, even your reddest strongholds are starting to doubt

> Mr. President, I am writing this open letter as the latest state-by-state approval numbers, published in late June 2026, show something even

- Author: Maxime Marquette
- Publisher: MadMax (https://mad-max.co)
- Section: Open letter
- Published: 2026-07-06
- Canonical URL: https://mad-max.co/en/article/monsieur-trump-meme-vos-bastions-rouges-commencent-a-douter

## Key takeaways

- Net approval figures cited include Silver Bulletin at -17.8 as of July 3, 2026, and a New York Times reading of 39% approval against 58% disapproval.
- Kentucky's net approval reportedly fell from +23 to zero, while Wyoming, Idaho and West Virginia also declined.
- Swing states are shown negative, including Georgia at -22, Nevada at -21 and Ohio at -13 or -14.
- The Guardian reports nearly 500,000 New Yorkers losing health coverage on July 1, 2026, tied to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
- Polls cited show 61% saying the country is on the wrong track, and Republican strong approval falling from 52% to 43%.

## Introduction: an erosion no longer confined to Democratic territory

### A letter to a president losing ground everywhere

Mr. President, I am writing this open letter as the latest state-by-state approval numbers, published in late June 2026, show something even your most loyal supporters now struggle to deny: your **approval rating** is slipping in strongholds you once considered locked in. According to data compiled by **USA Today** and its aggregator **Civiqs**, your national disapproval rate stands at **36%**, with state-by-state figures telling a far more troubling story for your side than the national headlines suggest.

It isn't just the **historically Democratic strongholds** disapproving of you, which would be expected and politically unremarkable. What worries your own strategists is the measurable erosion in **states you won comfortably** in 2024, where Kentucky, Florida, Ohio, and even Texas are showing signs of electoral fatigue ahead of the November 2026 midterms.

### The number that should worry you most

According to **Nate Silver**'s **Silver Bulletin**, your **net approval** stood at **-17.8** as of July 3, 2026, a slight improvement from the previous week's **-18.9**, but still a deeply negative figure for a president at the midpoint of his second term. The **New York Times**, for its part, put your approval at **39%** against **58% disapproval** as of July 1, figures almost exactly matched by the **Silver Bulletin** itself at **39.4% against 57.5%**.

These national numbers, worrying as they are for your administration, mask an even more revealing reality: the **geography of your support** is shrinking, state by state, including in territories your campaign team considered **unshakable fortresses** as recently as eighteen months ago.

*I'll say this plainly, Mr. President: a head of state losing ground in his own strongholds no longer has the excuse of simple partisan opposition. This is a sign of a substantive problem, not a communications problem.*

## Kentucky, a symbol of a silent collapse

### From +23 to zero: the fall of a state that was never supposed to doubt

Take **Kentucky**, Mr. President. According to a **Newsweek** analysis published in late June 2026, your **net approval** in that state dropped from **+23 points** at the start of your second term to a **neutral rating of zero** by mid-2026, completely wiping out the political cushion you once had in a state considered deeply conservative. That's a **23-point** drop in under eighteen months, a fall that is anything but trivial for a state where your party relies on a **comfortable margin** to secure its congressional seats.

Other analyses, notably those cited in Facebook posts referencing **Civiqs** data, put your Kentucky slide even lower, at **-4**, a slightly different figure that nonetheless confirms the same underlying trend: a once-solid state now tipping into complete political uncertainty.

### Idaho and Wyoming, your last refuges, are also eroding

Even your **most solid strongholds** aren't spared. **Wyoming**, your most favorable state with net approval that once reached **+47**, now sits around **+24 or +25 points** depending on the aggregator, a drop of nearly **half**. **Idaho**, which showed **+34** at the start of your term, now plateaus around **+11 to +13**, while **West Virginia** has fallen from **+35 to roughly +13 or +15**.

These declines in your **most loyal states** don't mean you're losing the majority there, far from it. But they signal a **widespread erosion** touching the entire American political spectrum, from Democratic strongholds to the deepest Republican fortresses, with no territorial exception.

*When a state that once gave you a 47-point lead now gives you only 24, that's no longer partisan loyalty, Mr. President, that's fatigue setting in even among those who put you in power twice.*

## The swing states, your real electoral nightmare

### Florida, Ohio, Nevada: the flip of once-won territory

The most dangerous decline for your party is playing out in the **swing states**. According to data reported by **Yahoo News** and **Newsweek**, **Florida** went from a net approval of **+9 points** at the start of your term to **-11 or -13 points** by mid-2026. **Ohio**, another state you considered consolidated, fell from **+8 to -13 or -14 points**, while **Nevada** went from a neutral position to **-21 points**, one of the sharpest declines in the entire country.

**Pennsylvania**, the quintessential swing state, slid from **-3 to -15 points**, and **Wisconsin** fell from **-4 to -14 points**. **North Carolina**, once neutral, now shows **-13 points**, while **Arizona** sits at **-11** and **Georgia** at an alarming **-22 points** according to the same analyses.

### What this means for your party in November

These numbers aren't just abstract statistics, Mr. President. They represent **congressional seats** flipping, **governorships** becoming competitive, and a **Republican majority** in the House, and potentially the Senate, that could evaporate in November 2026 if this trend continues. Every point lost in these states represents **tens of thousands of voters** who trusted you in 2024 and who today are hesitating, doubting, or outright switching to the other side.

The fact that your **approval is now negative in every single swing state** tracked by the aggregators represents, according to several analysts cited by **Newsweek**, a warning signal rarely seen at this stage of a presidential term, particularly for a party currently controlling both chambers of Congress.

*I won't hide my skepticism about your administration's ability to reverse this trend in four months. When Georgia drops 22 points, that's no longer a slide, it's a freefall.*

## Health care cuts, a slow-acting poison

### 500,000 New Yorkers losing their health insurance

Part of this erosion, Mr. President, traces directly back to the concrete consequences of your **flagship law**, the **One Big Beautiful Bill Act**, signed nearly a year ago. According to a **Guardian** investigation published July 1, 2026, nearly **500,000 New Yorkers** with moderate incomes began losing their health coverage on July 1, a direct consequence of the end of federal funding for New York State's **Essential Plan**, an Obamacare-derived program that covered people earning between **200% and 250% of the federal poverty line**.

Dr. **Adam Aponte**, CEO of the **East Harlem Council for Human Services**, summed up the situation bluntly: "**This is just the tip of the iceberg, because come January, all the other impacts of HR1 will start to be felt**." He added that most of the newly uninsured will likely turn to **hospital emergency rooms**, unable to afford coverage on the private market.

### A cost running into the billions, a bill coming due

Your law will result, according to projections cited by the **Guardian**, in a **$911 billion** cut to federal health spending, while adding **$3.4 trillion** to the federal deficit by 2034. Nationally, **10 million more Americans** are expected to lose health coverage over the next decade, a figure that goes far beyond New York State alone and potentially touches voters in every district in the country.

In New York alone, up to **1.1 million people** could lose coverage by 2034, and more than **250,000 residents** of New York City alone will see their situation affected. Insurers, for their part, are seeking premium increases of up to **52.1%** for some plans, an increase few moderate-income families will be able to absorb without sacrificing other essential needs.

*This, Mr. President, is where the political price of your budget choices gets paid in concrete terms: in crowded emergency rooms and medication bills families can no longer afford. This isn't a statistical abstraction, it's real suffering that later shows up at the ballot box.*

## One in ten Americans sees the country on the wrong track

### The poll that should alarm your campaign team

A poll published June 30, 2026 by **Newsweek** found that only **28% of Americans** believe the country is broadly headed in the right direction, against **61% who believe it's on the wrong track**. That figure marks a slight decline from the previous week, when **31% of respondents** said they were optimistic about the country's trajectory, a sign of confidence eroding gradually rather than abruptly, which makes the phenomenon all the harder for your communications team to fight.

Another **USA Today** poll, published July 1, 2026, found that **60% of Americans** believe you are not focused on the country's top priorities, a figure reflecting cross-partisan frustration rarely seen to this degree during your second term. This sentiment cuts across traditional partisan lines and touches even part of your **historic voter base**.

### Erosion within your own camp

Even more troubling for your administration, several analyses point to **measurable erosion** within your own coalition. According to data cited by **Lincoln Square**, the percentage of Republicans expressing **strong approval** of your presidency fell from **52% to 43%**, while the proportion of Republicans who believe the economy has deteriorated under your leadership jumped from **13% to 28%**. Among young Republican voters, the decline reportedly reaches **23 points**, a signal that even your electoral base is no longer immune to doubt.

This internal erosion, if confirmed in the coming months, would represent a phenomenon rarely seen for a president at this stage of his term, when unconditional base support usually serves as the last line of defense against a general collapse in approval ratings.

*I'll say this with the caution warranted by sometimes-contradictory internal polling: but when your own voters start doubting your economic stewardship, Mr. President, the problem is no longer just about messaging. It's structural.*

## The geopolitical backdrop that does nothing for your domestic image

### Iran, inflation, and the cost of living weigh on your record

According to **USA Today**'s analysis published June 30, 2026, your **approval rating** remains weighed down by several compounding factors: **negotiations with Iran**, rising **gas prices**, rising **food prices**, and more broadly the **cost of living** that continues to weigh on the daily lives of millions of American families. Unlike abstract geopolitical debates, these economic issues hit voters' wallets directly and weigh heavily on their perception of your presidential management.

It's telling that even your diplomatic or military successes abroad fail to offset this negative domestic economic sentiment. American voters, as polls have shown consistently for decades, judge their presidents above all on their **personal finances**, well ahead of foreign policy matters, however important those may be on the international stage.

### An administration caught between two fires

Your administration thus finds itself caught between two conflicting pressures: on one hand, maintaining a **firm posture on the international stage** against Iran, Russia, and China, which demands resources and sustained attention; on the other, responding to the **immediate economic concerns** of American voters, who are primarily worried about grocery and gas prices. This tension partly explains why your communications team is struggling to turn your diplomatic successes into measurable political gains in national polls.

The challenge for your team, with four months left before the midterms, will be to demonstrate that your economic management will produce concrete results before voters head to the polls, a race against the clock that, at this stage, looks far from won.

*On the international front, your firmness toward Iran and Russia deserves recognition, Mr. President. But it doesn't replace, for the average voter struggling to pay for groceries, a domestic economic policy that today seems to be worsening rather than easing daily hardship.*

## Republican strategists are starting to worry openly

### A fragile majority that could flip in November

According to several analyses relayed by the American press, your own **party strategists** are starting to voice open concern about the durability of the **Republican majority** in the House of Representatives, a majority that remains historically thin and vulnerable to any significant electoral swing. With **negative net approval** in practically every swing state tracked by the aggregators, your party's margin for error is shrinking dangerously as November approaches.

Midterm elections are traditionally difficult for the party in power, a well-documented historical phenomenon affecting nearly every modern American president. But the scale of the current erosion, combined with persistent economic difficulties and health care cuts that are just beginning to be concretely felt, could turn a usual difficulty into an **electoral rout** for your party.

### The Epstein factor still hanging over your administration

Adding to this economic erosion is another, more political factor still weighing on your image: the ongoing handling of the **Epstein case**, on which several Democratic members of Congress are already preparing investigations in anticipation of a possible return to the majority after November. This case, combined with economic difficulties, creates a particularly unfavorable political cocktail for your administration ahead of a crucial electoral deadline.

The combination of these economic and political factors explains why some observers already describe the current situation as a **perfect storm** for your party, a convergence of unfavorable circumstances that has historically rarely spared parties in power during American midterm elections.

*I won't pretend to predict November's outcome, Mr. President, but the accumulation of negative signals should, by any political logic, seriously worry your camp well beyond the usual reassuring talking points.*

## Women, an electorate slipping away fast

### A ten-point drop in a month among female voters

An analysis of Fox News and CBS/YouGov polling, covering the previous summer period but with trends confirmed in 2026, already showed a sharp drop in your **net approval among women**, falling from **-16 to -21 points** within a single month. This rapid deterioration among a decisive electorate in several swing states continues to weigh heavily on your electoral chances as November 2026 approaches.

**Gallup** data, cited by several analysts, put your overall approval at **36%** with disapproval at **60%**, a figure that masks an even more troubling reality: even approval within your own party fell by **seven points** to reach **84%**, its lowest level of your entire second term.

*Losing ground among women voters, Mr. President, is never an isolated accident. It's generally the symptom of broader dissatisfaction touching the economic and social issues that most directly concern American families.*

## Independents, November's silent arbiters

### Growing negativity among unaffiliated voters

**Independent** voters, who traditionally determine the outcome of midterm elections, are expressing increasingly unfavorable views of you. According to several polls compiled in spring 2026, your approval among independents plateaued at just **20%**, an extremely low figure that shows just how much your electoral coalition now depends almost exclusively on your most loyal Republican base.

This increased reliance on a narrower base represents a **major strategic risk** for your party, particularly in swing states where independents often provide the margin of victory or defeat between the two major parties in federal elections.

*A coalition that shrinks down to its hardest core, Mr. President, is a fragile coalition. Recent American electoral history shows that winning national elections without winning over independents is the exception, not the rule.*

## The weight of inflation on the electoral scale

### The price of groceries, an issue that transcends ideology

According to **Quinnipiac University** data, your handling of the economy hit a historic low in spring 2026, with only **33% approval** against **64% disapproval**, the lowest rate recorded since the start of your two combined presidential terms. This deterioration comes amid **rising oil prices** and persistent tensions with Iran, two factors directly fueling the economic anxiety of American households.

Even among Republican voters, only **16% believe** your administration has significantly helped with the cost of living, a dramatic drop from the **49%** who held that view in April 2024, before you even returned to the White House.

*Inflation, Mr. President, shows no mercy to any party in power. But when your own voters start doubting your economic record, that should sound as a top-priority alarm bell for your administration.*

## Young voters, a generation turning away

### Early disillusionment among Generation Z voters

Data on **young Republican voters** reveal a **23-point** drop in their support, an alarming figure for a party that must urgently renew its **electoral base** over the long term. This early disillusionment among a generation still forming its political identity could have **lasting consequences** well beyond the 2026 **midterm elections** alone.

The most clear-eyed Republican strategists acknowledge that the loss of trust among young voters represents a structural challenge that goes far beyond the immediate electoral cycle, requiring **deep reflection** on the party's priorities and message for decades to come.

*A generation that turns away early rarely comes back quickly, Mr. President. This may be the most lasting aspect of the current erosion, well beyond the numbers of a single election.*

## Governors, the first witnesses to local discontent

### Virginia and New Jersey, early barometers for November

The gubernatorial elections scheduled for this fall in **Virginia** and **New Jersey** will serve as an early test of the real scale of your electoral erosion. In Virginia, your approval stood at around **45%** according to the latest figures, down from the previous month, while **52% of voters** disapprove of your presidential management in that pivotal state.

These gubernatorial races, though distinct from the federal midterms, are traditionally read by political analysts as **leading indicators** of the national electoral mood, offering a **valuable preview** of what could happen in November for the entire US Congress.

*If Virginia and New Jersey confirm this negative trend in the fall, Mr. President, your party will need to prepare for a particularly difficult electoral scenario in November, with little room left to turn things around.*

## Historical comparisons that should worry you

### A second term harder than the first, on this specific point

A notable fact several analysts have flagged: your **current approval** remains, on some indicators, slightly higher than at a comparable point in your first term, which adds an important nuance to an otherwise bleak analysis. However, the **speed of the recent erosion** in swing states, and even in certain red strongholds, has no direct equivalent in your previous historical data.

This combination of a slightly better starting point but a faster decline trajectory creates an unprecedented political situation that your campaign strategists are struggling to interpret using the traditional historical models applied in previous electoral cycles.

*Historical precedents have their limits, Mr. President. Every electoral cycle brings its own set of new variables, and 2026 seems determined to rewrite some rules established over decades.*

## What American electoral history teaches about these cycles

### Midterms, a rendezvous rarely kind to the party in power

American electoral history shows that the party controlling the **White House** almost systematically loses **seats** during midterm elections, a phenomenon observed for **decades** and affecting virtually every president regardless of party affiliation. This historical trend isn't, however, an absolute inevitability, as some presidents have managed to limit the damage through economic management perceived positively by voters.

The challenge for your administration is precisely to reverse this unfavorable dynamic before voters go to the polls, a task made harder by the accumulation of negative signals already documented in this letter, from the slide in red strongholds to the health care cuts that are only just beginning to produce their concrete effects.

### The precedents of Clinton, Obama, and Biden facing their own midterms

The examples of **Bill Clinton** in 1994, **Barack Obama** in 2010, and **Joe Biden** in 2022 all illustrate, to varying degrees, the structural difficulty a party in power faces during midterm elections, particularly when the economy and the cost of living dominate American voters' concerns. Each of these precedents led to a **significant loss** of congressional seats, durably shifting the **legislative balance** for the remainder of the presidential term in question.

Your current situation, marked by simultaneous erosion in red strongholds and swing states, shows **troubling similarities** with these historical precedents, while adding an extra dimension tied to health care cuts whose effects are only just beginning to materialize concretely for millions of American families.

*History is never an absolute sentence, Mr. President, but it offers a serious warning. Presidents who ignore these electoral signals usually pay a heavy price in November.*

*These historical precedents, Mr. President, guarantee nothing about the outcome of November 2026. But they're a reminder that no president, however confident in his base, is immune to a massive electoral rejection when the economy and health care dominate voters' concerns.*

## Conclusion: a letter meant as a warning, not a condemnation

### What these numbers should tell you

Mr. President, this letter isn't meant to condemn you personally, but to remind you of a reality the numbers, dry as they are, can no longer hide: your **electoral coalition** is eroding, slowly but surely, in territories you long considered secure. From Kentucky to Florida, through Ohio and Nevada, the message from American voters seems to converge on the same conclusion: **patience** has limits, even among your most loyal supporters.

The health care cuts affecting hundreds of thousands of New York families today, combined with persistent inflation and widespread economic anxiety, paint a picture even your most skillful messaging will struggle to reverse before the November 2026 midterms.

### A final word before the electoral deadline

You have four months left, Mr. President, to try to reverse a trend that, at this stage, appears deeply entrenched in American public opinion. History will judge whether your administration heeded this electoral warning or, instead, persisted down a path that a growing number of Americans, including in your own strongholds, now consider contrary to their fundamental interests.

**By Maxime Marquette, columnist**

## Columnist's transparency note

### Editorial stance

I am not a journalist but a **columnist and analyst**. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies.

I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. **I claim analytical clarity**, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events.

### Method and sources

This text keeps the basic distinction between **verified facts and interpretive analysis**. The rule never changes: a factual claim is published only when a verifiable source supports it, and the sources this article actually used are listed under **Sources**, never here.

**Primary source families** used by the publication, when the story has them: official statements from governments and international institutions, public statements by political leaders, reports from intergovernmental organisations, dispatches from recognised international news agencies.

**Secondary source families**: specialised publications, internationally recognised news media, analyses from established research institutions, reports from industry organisations.

When an article cites statistical, economic or geopolitical data, it comes from the institutions that produce it (intergovernmental organisations, central banks, national statistics offices), and the exact institution is named under **Sources**.

### Nature of the analysis

The analyses, interpretations and perspectives in the analytical sections of this article are a **critical, contextual synthesis** based on the information available, the trends observed and the expert comments cited in the sources consulted.

My role is to interpret these facts, to set them in the context of today's geopolitical and economic dynamics, and to give them a coherent meaning within the larger story of the changes shaping our time. These analyses reflect expertise built through continuous observation of international affairs and an understanding of the strategic mechanisms that drive global actors.

This article describes a documented state of affairs on its publication date, not a prediction: later developments may shift its outlook. No update is promised in advance; when an article is corrected or completed, the change is dated in the text.

## Sources

### Primary sources

- USA Today / The List Wire — President Trump's approval rating by state heading into July 2026, June 30, 2026

### Secondary sources

- USA Today — 60% say Trump isn't focused on top issues in latest poll, July 1, 2026

- Silver Bulletin — Trump Approval Rating: Latest Polls, July 3, 2026

- US Polling Data — Trump Approval Ratings

- The Guardian — 'Tip of the iceberg': nearly 500,000 New Yorkers lose health insurance due to Trump cuts, July 1, 2026

- Newsweek — Majority of Americans Say Trump Isn't Focused on Key Problems, June 30, 2026

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Source: Maxime Marquette, MadMax. When citing, name the author and link https://mad-max.co/en/article/monsieur-trump-meme-vos-bastions-rouges-commencent-a-douter