# OPEN LETTER: Mr. Putin, Your 15 Regions Without Fuel Are Writing to You From Siberia > Mr. Putin, allow me to begin with the facts. On June 23, 2026, at least 15 Russian regions introduced restrictions on gasoline sales. Not one region, not two — fifteen. The crisis has spread to Siberia. Occupied Crimea is running on empty. And you yourself publicly acknowledged, on June 28, a certain fuel shortage. You ordered the government to take measures to minimize or comp - Author: Maxime Marquette - Publisher: MadMax (https://mad-max.co) - Section: Open letter - Published: 2026-06-29 - Canonical URL: https://mad-max.co/en/article/lettre-ouverte-monsieur-poutine-vos-15-regions-sans-carburant-vous-ecrivent-depu ## Key takeaways - On June 23, 2026, at least 15 Russian regions reportedly restricted gasoline sales, and Putin publicly acknowledged a fuel shortage on June 28. - Citing Reuters, the article says Russia's refining capacity has fallen by 25%, the lowest level in 21 years. - Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries in Saratov, Ryazan, Volgograd and Krasnodar are presented as the direct cause. - The author argues that fuel shortages affect military logistics, and that combined sanctions and strikes multiply pressure on Russia's finances. - Marquette openly declares he is a pro-Ukrainian columnist, and the article's sources are listed as news outlets, though the cited facts are not independently verified here. ## Introduction: Dear Vladimir — Your Gasoline Has Gone Missing ### The shortage that speaks louder than your speeches Mr. Putin, allow me to begin with the facts. On **June 23, 2026**, at least **15 Russian regions** introduced **restrictions on gasoline sales**. Not one region, not two — fifteen. The crisis has spread to **Siberia**. **Occupied Crimea** is running on empty. And you yourself publicly acknowledged, on **June 28**, a **certain fuel shortage**. You ordered the government to take measures to **minimize or completely eliminate** the consequences. Those words, Mr. Putin, are yours. Not those of Ukrainian propagandists. **Russia's refining capacity** has fallen by **25%** according to Reuters. That is the **lowest level in 21 years**. Twenty-one years. For two decades, Russia pumped, refined, and exported its oil without incident. And now your pumps are dry in **15 regions**. That has a name, Mr. Putin. It is called **consequences**. *When Putin himself admits a fuel shortage, we are no longer talking about Ukrainian propaganda. We are talking about economic reality documented by the Kremlin itself.* ### Where this comes from — stop pretending you don't know **Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries** began in the spring of 2024 and have intensified since. Long-range drones have struck facilities in the oblasts of **Saratov, Ryazan, Volgograd, and Krasnodar**. These strikes targeted **refining and storage infrastructure** — not oil wells, but the places where crude oil is converted into usable fuel. And now **15 Russian regions are rationing gasoline**. The causal link is direct. You can call these acts of terrorism. You can invoke the **rules of clean warfare**. But your own numbers — **25% of refining capacity lost** in a matter of months — tell a more precise story than your press releases. ## Fifteen Regions Under Restriction — the Geography of Failure ### From Moscow to Siberia — the shortage respects no administrative boundaries The **fuel crisis** of June 2026 is remarkable for its geographic reach. It is not confined to areas near Ukraine. It has spread as far as **Siberia** — thousands of kilometers from the front. This means it is not a localized transportation or regional logistics problem. It is a **systemic crisis in national refining capacity**. **Occupied Crimea** is particularly affected. Isolated by the **Kerch Strait** and dependent on continental supplies via the bridge — which has itself been struck by Ukrainian forces multiple times — Crimea is vulnerable to every disruption in Russia's supply chain. Residents and Russian troops there experience it directly: **empty service stations, queues, rationing**. *A shortage that reaches Siberia is not a local problem. It is the signal of a nationally weakened infrastructure — and Ukraine targeted it methodically.* ### The number that does not lie: minus 25% of refining capacity The key figure comes from **Reuters**: Russia's refining capacity has **fallen by 25%** under the effect of Ukrainian strikes. This is a verifiable, sourced piece of data, reported by an independent international news agency. It is not a Ukrainian estimate. It is an industrial measurement. **25% less refining capacity** is substantial. Russia was one of the world's largest petroleum producers and exporters. It built its economy, its war budget, and its geopolitical power on hydrocarbon revenues. And now it cannot **refine enough to fuel its own cars and trucks**. This is a perfect illustration of what sanctions and strikes combined can achieve. ## Putin's Confession: When the Kremlin Master Tells the Truth by Accident ### June 28 — the public acknowledgment that changes everything On **June 28, 2026**, you did something unusual, Mr. Putin: you told the truth. You publicly acknowledged a **certain fuel shortage** in Russia. You ordered the government to take measures to **minimize or completely eliminate the consequences**. That statement is historic — not because the shortage is a surprise, but because **you said it**. Authoritarian leaders do not make this kind of statement out of any virtue of transparency. They make them when **the problem is so visible, so widespread, so impossible to deny** that silence itself would become the news. Fifteen regions, queues at the pump, Siberia without gasoline — you had no choice left. **That is where you stand.** *Putin admitting a shortage is like a general admitting he lost a battle. He only does it when denial costs more than admission.* ### What this acknowledgment means for your war narrative Your official narrative on the war in Ukraine rests on a central premise: **Russia is strong, invulnerable, and winning**. Your state media repeats on a loop that sanctions have failed, that the Russian economy is holding firm, that the West is divided. And then you acknowledge a fuel shortage in **15 regions, all the way to Siberia**. These two narratives are **incompatible**. An economy that is winning does not ration its gasoline. An army that is advancing does not have its rear logistics disrupted by enemy drone strikes. What you admitted on **June 28** directly contradicts what your televisions repeat every evening. And that contradiction **costs credibility** — including within your own population. ## Ukrainian Strikes on Refineries: A Strategy That Works ### The logic of economic warfare by drone Ukraine's strategy of striking **Russian refineries** is coherent and has been documented since the spring of 2024. It rests on a simple principle: **strike Russia's war economy at its source**. Russia finances its war with petroleum revenues. It fuels its army with gasoline. It transports its military equipment with trucks and trains that burn diesel. By reducing refining capacity by **25%**, Ukraine is not only fighting on the military front. It is fighting on the **economic and logistical front** of the war. Russian military vehicles need fuel. Generators need fuel. Helicopters need fuel. Every liter of fuel missing from a **struck refinery** is a liter that will not be in a Russian tank. *Striking Russian refineries means striking the military logistics chain at its source. This is an economic warfare strategy that military manuals teach — and that Ukraine is applying with its long-range drones.* ### Crimea as the point of maximum vulnerability **Occupied Crimea** is the point of maximum vulnerability in this crisis. Dependent on the **Kerch Bridge** — itself damaged by Ukrainian strikes — and on a maritime logistics network compromised by Ukraine's growing dominance in the Black Sea, the annexed peninsula suffers from every disruption of Russia's continental supply chain. Russian troops in Crimea, the civilians who remained, the Russian settlers installed since 2014 — all are experiencing firsthand the consequences of illegal annexation. They live in a zone that Ukraine considers its territory and is resolved to make **as costly to maintain as possible** for Russia. ## The Impact on the Russian War Machine ### Soldiers, trucks, and generators — everything needs fuel A fuel shortage in **15 civilian regions** is concerning. A fuel shortage affecting **military operations** is potentially catastrophic. The two are linked. When refining capacity drops by **25%**, it is not only civilian motorists who suffer. It is the entire logistical needs of the country — including military ones. **Russia's armed forces** consume colossal quantities of fuel: tanks, armored vehicles, logistics trucks, helicopters, aircraft. **Growing pressure on fuel reserves** in the rear translates into logistics tensions at the front itself. These effects are difficult to measure directly, but they are real and documented in several Western military analyst reports. *Putin can order the consequences minimized. But you cannot order unrefined crude oil to transform into diesel by presidential decree. Physics does not bend to Kremlin diktat.* ### The 21-year record: lowest refining level since 2005 According to **Reuters**, Russia's current refining level is the **lowest in 21 years**. That takes us back to the early 2000s, when Russia was restructuring its oil industry following the Yeltsin years. This level had never been reached during the petroleum prosperity years of the Putin era. It has been reached now — **under the effect of Ukrainian strikes**. This figure is emblematic because it erases a decade of Russian industrial development. The **modernization of Russian refineries**, funded by the petrodollars of the 2000s and 2010s, is partly neutralized. The industrial infrastructure investments that Putin presented as his economic successes **are burning under Ukrainian drones**. ## What Other Sanctioned Regimes Take from Your Failure ### Russia as a case study in vulnerability to economic pressure Mr. Putin, your situation in **June 2026** is being studied closely by other regimes that also believed themselves invulnerable to sanctions. **Iran, North Korea, China** — all are watching what is happening to you and re-checking their own economic vulnerabilities. Your experience demonstrates that even a major power with significant reserves can be weakened by the **combination of sanctions and precise strikes** on its industrial infrastructure. For China in particular, which is watching your war economy very carefully, the message is clear: **industrial dependencies are military vulnerabilities**. **Your rationed gasoline is their strategic vulnerability lesson.** *Ukraine is waging a war on multiple fronts simultaneously — and one of them, economic, is producing results that military maps do not show. But the pump prices in Siberia do.* ### What the West learns from your economic pressure Conversely, Western democracies are also learning from the strategy Ukraine is applying to your economy. **Targeted sanctions plus strikes on industrial infrastructure** produce measurable effects even on large economies. This model — developed in real time under the pressure of war — has become an **active economic warfare doctrine** that Western military planners are studying. Your fuel shortage across **15 regions** is not only a Russian failure. It is a **proof of concept for the Ukrainian strategy**. And this proof will be cited in the military manuals of years to come. ## Sanctions and Drones: a Formidable Combination for Your Economy ### Two economic fronts opened simultaneously Mr. Putin, your war economy is facing two simultaneous pressures. **Western sanctions** limit your access to technologies, replacement parts, and international financial systems. And **Ukrainian strikes on your refineries** reduce your ability to convert your crude oil into usable fuel. These two pressures **multiply each other** — they do not simply add up. You cannot easily import the technologies needed to repair damaged refineries, because of sanctions. You cannot rapidly increase your refining capacity, because it continues to be struck. You are caught in a **strategic vice** — and it is tightening. *Sanctions plus drones equals a Russia rationing its gasoline as far as Siberia. That is not propaganda. That is arithmetic.* ### The impact on Russian petroleum revenues — your war financing Your war in Ukraine is expensive. Estimates suggest Russia spends between **$200 billion and $300 billion per year** financing its military operations. These funds come largely from **petroleum and gas revenues**. Burning refineries means less refined petroleum for export, which means **less revenue for your war budget**. The link is not immediate — Russia also exports unrefined crude oil. But the **25% reduction in refining** affects both domestic supply and exports of premium refined products. It is a **cumulative financial pressure** on a budget system already under stress. ## What Ordinary Russians on the Street Are Actually Feeling ### Ordinary Russian citizens and the reality of queues at the pump Mr. Putin, your fellow citizens are not looking you in the eye when they queue at the pump. They are looking at the **meter running**, the **rationed liter**, the sign on the door saying **out of stock**. In Siberia, in cities thousands of kilometers from Odessa, ordinary people are living the consequences of a war they did not choose and that your television presents as a special military operation going well. These people do not make **political statements**. They do not create problems. But somewhere in the Siberian silence of an empty service station, an **idea is taking root**: perhaps the war costs more than they said. Perhaps something is not going as planned. *This letter will not convince you to withdraw your troops. I have no illusions about your capacity to hear rational arguments when your political survival is at stake. But it says one simple thing: your 15 regions without fuel speak louder than your propagandists.* ### Kremlin propaganda versus real queues Your state media can spin it however they like. They can talk about **Western sabotage**, **temporary problems**, **external interference**. But an empty service station is an empty service station. It does not need to be interpreted. It is there, concrete, daily, immediate. And when this happens in **15 regions across Russia**, propaganda begins to struggle to cover reality. That is where you stand, Mr. Putin. **Your propaganda is losing its advantage over reality.** ## Conclusion: Mr. Putin, Ukraine Will Send You the Invoice Later ### What your shortage says about the trajectory of the war Mr. Putin, your **15 regions without fuel** are not a temporary problem solvable by decree. They are the symptom of a **Ukrainian strategy that works** — slowly, methodically, inexorably. Every struck refinery reduces a little more your capacity to finance and fuel your war. Every fuel shortage in Siberia is a **confirmation that combined sanctions and drones come at a steep price**. You asked your government to **minimize or completely eliminate** the consequences. Good luck with that. Ukraine, for its part, will keep striking your refineries. Until your troops come home. Or until your refineries are all out of service. **One of those two will happen first.** *Mr. Putin, your empty gas pumps in Siberia are sending you a message your generals cannot deliver: this war has a cost that your economy cannot absorb indefinitely.* **By Maxime Marquette, columnist** ## Columnist's transparency note ### Editorial stance I am not a journalist but a **columnist and analyst**. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies. I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. **I claim analytical clarity**, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events. ### Method and sources This text keeps the basic distinction between **verified facts and interpretive analysis**. The rule never changes: a factual claim is published only when a verifiable source supports it, and the sources this article actually used are listed under **Sources**, never here. **Primary source families** used by the publication, when the story has them: official statements from governments and international institutions, public statements by political leaders, reports from intergovernmental organisations, dispatches from recognised international news agencies. **Secondary source families**: specialised publications, internationally recognised news media, analyses from established research institutions, reports from industry organisations. When an article cites statistical, economic or geopolitical data, it comes from the institutions that produce it (intergovernmental organisations, central banks, national statistics offices), and the exact institution is named under **Sources**. ### Nature of the analysis The analyses, interpretations and perspectives in the analytical sections of this article are a **critical, contextual synthesis** based on the information available, the trends observed and the expert comments cited in the sources consulted. My role is to interpret these facts, to set them in the context of today's geopolitical and economic dynamics, and to give them a coherent meaning within the larger story of the changes shaping our time. These analyses reflect expertise built through continuous observation of international affairs and an understanding of the strategic mechanisms that drive global actors. This article describes a documented state of affairs on its publication date, not a prediction: later developments may shift its outlook. No update is promised in advance; when an article is corrected or completed, the change is dated in the text. ## Sources ### Primary sources - [Ukrainska Pravda — Fuel sales restrictions in 15 Russian regions — June 24, 2026](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/06/24/8040814/) - [Euromaidan Press — Russian fuel rationing reaches Siberia, occupied Crimea runs dry — June 23, 2026](https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/06/23/russia-fuel-rationing-reaches-siberia/) - [The Guardian — Putin admits Ukrainian strikes are driving Russian fuel shortages — June 28, 2026](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/28/putin-admits-ukrainian-strikes-driving-russian-fuel-shortages) ### Secondary sources - [Kyiv Independent — Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and economic impact — June 2026](https://kyivindependent.com/) - [Foreign Policy — Ukraine's economic warfare strategy by drone — June 2026](https://foreignpolicy.com/) - [Ukrinform — Context of Russia's fuel crisis following Ukrainian strikes — June 2026](https://www.ukrinform.net/) --- Source: Maxime Marquette, MadMax. When citing, name the author and link https://mad-max.co/en/article/lettre-ouverte-monsieur-poutine-vos-15-regions-sans-carburant-vous-ecrivent-depu