# OPEN LETTER: Mr. Trump, why abandon USMCA now > Introduction: a letter to a partner who has become unpredictable - Author: Maxime Marquette - Publisher: MadMax (https://mad-max.co) - Section: Open letter - Published: 2026-07-03 - Canonical URL: https://mad-max.co/en/article/lettre-ouverte-lettre-ouverte-monsieur-trump-pourquoi-abandonner-le-cusma-maintenant ## Introduction: a letter to a partner who has become unpredictable ### Mr. President, a simple question must be asked Mr. **President**, allow me to write to you directly, as a pro-**Western** columnist who has always defended the strategic necessity of your **leadership** against major geopolitical threats. But today, your decision not to renew the **Canada**-**United States**-**Mexico Agreement (USMCA)** deserves a clear public explanation, one you have still not given with the **transparency** this matter demands. According to **CBC News** and **CNBC**, your **administration** let the **July 1, 2026** **deadline** pass without formally starting the renewal **process** for a new sixteen-year term, a decision with significant economic **consequences** for millions of North American **workers**. ### What this decision actually means Technically, the **agreement** remains in force, with **annual reviews** scheduled through 2036, unless one of the three parties decides to withdraw with six months' **notice**. But the absence of a formal renewal sends a **signal** of instability that is already worrying **business communities** in all three signatory countries. This **open letter** aims to ask you, Mr. President, the questions millions of **Canadians**, **Mexicans**, and **Americans** are asking today about the **future** of this essential **trade relationship** for the entire **North American continent**. ## The scale of **trade** at stake between our two countries ### A colossal economic **partnership** Mr. President, you certainly know that the trade relationship between **Canada** and the **United States** represents roughly **1.3 trillion dollars** in annual trade, according to data reported by several economic analysts cited by **CBC News**. This colossal figure illustrates just how deeply interconnected our economies remain, far beyond simplistic political rhetoric. **USMCA** currently protects roughly **90 percent** of Canadian **exports** to the United States against punitive **tariffs**, an **economic security** net whose sudden questioning legitimately worries entire sectors of the Canadian **economy**. ### Entire industries hanging on your decision The **automotive** **industry**, **agriculture**, **energy**, and North American manufacturing all depend, to varying degrees, on the legal **stability** offered by this trilateral trade agreement, initially signed under your own first administration. Ironically, Mr. President, it was you who negotiated and signed this agreement in 2020, presenting it then as one of the greatest trade successes of your **first term**. This reversal raises legitimate questions about the **consistency** of your long-term trade policy. ## Why tariffs seem to have become your **priority** ### A deliberate fiscal strategy amid rising debt According to analysts cited by **Al Jazeera**, your administration appears to have deliberately chosen to favor **tariffs** as a fiscal and economic instrument rather than maintaining a stable, predictable trade framework with your North American neighbors, amid steadily growing American **federal debt**. This approach, while politically profitable with a segment of your electorate that views tariffs as **protection** for American jobs, largely ignores repeated economic studies showing that these same tariffs often end up being paid, ultimately, by American **consumers** themselves. ### The paradox of a policy that could backfire Mr. President, several economists warn that this aggressive tariff approach could accelerate domestic American **inflation**, a major political **risk** given that your administration has made fighting the cost of living precisely one of its central communication priorities since your return to power. This contradiction between your economic rhetoric and your concrete trade actions deserves to be publicly highlighted, as it illustrates an internal tension in your own economic strategy that even your supporters sometimes struggle to explain coherently. ## Canada facing a difficult strategic choice ### Negotiate now or wait for the **midterm elections** The Canadian **government** now finds itself facing a complex strategic dilemma: negotiate immediately with your administration in an uncertain political context, or wait until the 2026 American midterm elections, hoping for a shift in the balance of power in **Congress** more favorable to a stable trade agreement. This strategic **uncertainty**, documented by several analysts cited by **CBC News**, illustrates the delicate position in which your decision places a historic partner that has always scrupulously honored its trade **commitments** to the United States. ### The risks of prolonged **wait-and-see** tactics Waiting too long, however, carries its own risks for **Canada**: prolonging economic uncertainty could discourage major cross-border **investments** and push some Canadian **companies** to redirect their **supply chains** toward other markets, potentially to the detriment of both economies in the long run. This **situation**, Mr. President, truly benefits no one, not Canadian workers, not American workers, nor even the broader goal of North American economic security against Chinese strategic competition over critical supply chains. ## The role of the U.S. Trade Representative ### Jamieson Greer and Washington's official position U.S. Trade Representative **Jamieson Greer** publicly confirmed the decision not to formally renew the agreement for a new sixteen-year term, while insisting that the existing framework remains functional thanks to the annual reviews scheduled through 2036, according to **CNBC** and the **New York Post**. This position, while technically reassuring on the immediate legal front, does not answer the underlying strategic question: why give up the stability of a long-term commitment in favor of renewed annual uncertainty, which complicates **investment planning** for companies in all three countries? ### Communication that lacks **clarity** Mr. President, your administration would benefit from publicly clarifying, in much greater detail, the real strategic **objectives** behind this decision to let the renewal deadline slip, rather than allowing uncertainty to linger that undermines the **confidence** of markets and North American trade partners. This lack of strategic clarity fuels various speculations, some suggesting a deliberate **negotiating** strategy, others simply pointing to a lack of priority given to this file within an administration overwhelmed by multiple simultaneous fronts. ## Mexico, the often-forgotten third partner in this debate ### A relationship just as crucial but less publicized While the public debate often focuses on the bilateral relationship between **Canada** and the **United States**, **Mexico** remains an equally essential partner in this trilateral agreement, with automotive and manufacturing supply chains deeply integrated across the three North American economies for decades. The uncertainty surrounding USMCA's renewal therefore directly affects millions of Mexican workers, whose economic future remains suspended on the same American strategic decisions that today worry your Canadian neighbors. ### North American solidarity put to the test This situation should, Mr. President, prompt you to reconsider the strategic importance of an economically united **North America**, particularly in the face of **China's** growing industrial and trade ambitions, which is actively seeking to exploit any division between Western partners to strengthen its own global **economic influence**. Weakening North American **economic integration** at the precise moment when Western unity against Beijing should be strengthened constitutes, in my view, a strategic mistake whose consequences could be felt well beyond mere short-term trade considerations. ## What this reveals about your **vision** of international trade ### **Protectionism** as a central economic **doctrine** Mr. President, your approach to international trade, centered on **tariffs** and the permanent renegotiation of existing agreements, reflects an openly protectionist vision that contrasts sharply with the trade **multilateralism** that dominated American policy for decades before you came to power. This doctrine, which you openly defend as necessary to protect American jobs, deserves to be judged by its concrete results rather than by its stated intentions alone, an exercise the coming months will certainly help clarify. ### A necessary evil despite these questionable trade choices I maintain my position, Mr. President: you remain a necessary evil against the far more serious geopolitical threats posed by **China**, **Russia**, **Iran**, and **North Korea**. But this strategic conviction does not stop me from openly questioning trade decisions that sometimes seem to contradict your own broader geopolitical objectives. Strong Western leadership requires consistency between firmness toward adversaries and **loyalty** toward **allies**, a balance your current trade policy toward **Canada** and **Mexico** sometimes struggles to fully uphold. ## Reactions from North American business communities ### Palpable concern among industrialists Several Canadian and American **business associations** have publicly voiced their concern over this lack of formal renewal, underscoring the urgent need for **legal predictability** to justify major industrial investments spanning several years, even several decades. This concern, widely shared across the automotive, agricultural, and energy sectors, illustrates the growing gap between companies' long-term **planning** needs and the more unpredictable pace of political decisions made in Washington under your administration. ### **Financial markets** remain watchful North American financial markets are also closely monitoring developments on this file, aware that any significant deterioration in the trilateral trade relationship could have repercussions on the **economic growth** of the three countries that signed this strategic agreement. This market vigilance, Mr. President, should serve as an additional signal of the importance serious economic actors place on the lasting stability of this trade agreement, well beyond purely short-term political considerations. ## The historical precedent of North American trade tensions ### A **history** of tense but fruitful negotiations The history of North American trade relations, from the original **North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)** to the current USMCA, has always been marked by tense negotiations that, historically, have ended up producing **compromises** mutually beneficial to all three economies involved. This tradition of negotiation, despite its recurring difficulties over the decades, has helped build one of the most integrated and prosperous **free trade zones** in the world, an economic **legacy** that your current decision risks weakening without any clearly demonstrated strategic necessity. ### A legacy you risk compromising Mr. President, as the original **signatory** of USMCA during your first term, you bear a particular **responsibility** for preserving this North American trade legacy, rather than perpetually calling it into question according to electoral cycles and shifting fiscal priorities. This **historical responsibility** deserves, in my view, deeper reflection on your part before you allow such a crucial deadline to definitively slip away, one so important to the economic future of three deeply interdependent nations. ## The potential consequences for ordinary workers ### Jobs directly threatened on both sides of the border Beyond the grand economic and geopolitical speeches, Mr. President, it is ordinary workers, in **Ontario's** automotive industry as much as in factories in **Michigan** or **Ohio**, who would suffer the most direct consequences of a prolonged deterioration of this trilateral trade relationship. These workers, who have no control over strategic decisions made in Washington, deserve a predictable trade policy that protects their jobs rather than permanent uncertainty dictated by short-term electoral considerations. ### A human cost often overlooked in the debate Public debate over international trade often focuses on abstract macroeconomic figures, overlooking the concrete human **impact** these trade decisions have on entire **families** whose financial stability depends directly on the health of this North American trade relationship. This **human dimension**, Mr. President, deserves a more central place in your strategic thinking, beyond the fiscal or electoral calculations that currently seem to guide your approach to this North American **trade file**. ## What the West expects of you on this file ### Strategic consistency as a minimum requirement Mr. President, the entire **West** needs an America that is consistent in its economic strategy as much as in its **geopolitical** firmness against authoritarian regimes. An erratic trade policy toward your closest North American allies sends a signal of weakness that our strategic adversaries will not fail to exploit to their advantage. This strategic consistency constitutes, in my view, a minimum requirement for any credible Western leadership, particularly in a geopolitical context where unity among democratic allies has never been more essential against the combined ambitions of China, **Russia**, **Iran**, and **North Korea**. ### An opportunity to reassure rather than divide You have, Mr. President, the opportunity to transform this period of uncertainty into a moment of strategic **clarification**, by clearly communicating your real objectives regarding the future of this trilateral trade relationship, essential to the entire North American continent. This clarification, if it came quickly, would reassure financial markets, workers in all three countries involved, and your Western allies who are closely watching how you handle this strategic trade file. ## Possible **scenarios** for the coming months ### Toward accelerated negotiation or prolonged wait-and-see Several scenarios remain possible for the coming months: accelerated negotiation among the three countries aimed at quickly clarifying the terms of a renewal, or, conversely, a prolonged wait-and-see approach that would maintain the current uncertainty until the American midterm elections. Each of these scenarios carries distinct economic and political implications for the three North American economies, making any confident prediction about the final outcome of this complex and highly strategic trade file difficult. ### The importance of a swift, clear **resolution** Whatever scenario ultimately unfolds, Mr. President, a swift and clear resolution of this situation remains preferable to prolonged uncertainty that truly benefits none of the three North American economies involved in this strategic trade agreement. Such a swift resolution would also send a positive signal to the entire **international community** about the West's ability to maintain stable economic partnerships despite the internal political tensions that can sometimes complicate these negotiations. ## My final conviction despite my criticisms ### Constructive criticism, not systematic opposition Mr. President, this open letter is in no way intended to question the overall legitimacy of your leadership in the face of the major geopolitical challenges the West is currently facing. Rather, it aims to directly challenge you on a specific matter where your current approach seems to me strategically inconsistent with your broader objectives. This distinction between constructive criticism and systematic opposition constitutes, in my view, the very essence of responsible journalism, one that rejects both blind adulation and automatic rejection of every presidential decision, whatever its nature. ### Hope for a swift clarification I sincerely hope, Mr. President, that this **open letter** will modestly contribute to fueling a deeper public reflection on the strategic importance of preserving a stable North American trade relationship, for the ultimate benefit of workers and businesses in all three countries involved. The economic future of millions of North American **citizens** deserves better than prolonged uncertainty, and I hope your administration will quickly clarify its position on this trade file of such vital importance to the entire continent. ## The European example as a point of comparison ### How the **European Union** manages its own internal trade tensions The **European Union**, despite its own internal trade tensions among **member states**, has generally managed to maintain more predictable dispute resolution mechanisms than those currently observed in the North American relationship, a **model** that could inspire future reform of the trilateral USMCA **framework**. This comparison, Mr. President, is not a gratuitous criticism of your approach, but an invitation to consider **institutional mechanisms** proven elsewhere to reduce the uncertainty currently weighing on North American trade relations. ### Transferable lessons for North America Without fully copying the European model, certain **prior consultation** and **structured review** mechanisms could usefully apply to the North American trilateral relationship, thereby reducing the risks of sudden uncertainty like what we are experiencing now. This institutional reflection deserves, in my view, serious attention from all three governments involved, beyond the short-term electoral considerations that currently seem to dominate the North American trade debate. ## Conclusion: a decision that still belongs to history ### Time is running out, but nothing is irreversible Mr. President, this decision not to formally renew **USMCA** by the scheduled deadline does not yet constitute a definitive point of no return. The annual review mechanisms still offer a **window** of **opportunity** to clarify and stabilize this essential trade relationship before the current uncertainty causes lasting economic damage. This window of opportunity, though limited in time, remains open, and I sincerely hope your administration will seize it before the patience of your North American partners erodes further in the face of this prolonged uncertainty. ### A final call for strategic clarity In conclusion, Mr. President, I respectfully invite you to quickly clarify your real intentions regarding the future of this trilateral trade relationship, in the interest of the workers, businesses, and economic stability of the entire North American continent you lead and for which you bear, whether you like it or not, significant historical responsibility. The West needs your firmness against its geopolitical adversaries, but it needs just as much your clarity and your loyalty toward its closest and most reliable allies. **By Maxime Marquette, columnist** ## Columnist's transparency note ### Editorial stance I am not a journalist but a **columnist and analyst**. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies. I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. **I claim analytical clarity**, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events. ### Method and sources This text keeps the basic distinction between **verified facts and interpretive analysis**. The rule never changes: a factual claim is published only when a verifiable source supports it, and the sources this article actually used are listed under **Sources**, never here. **Primary source families** used by the publication, when the story has them: official statements from governments and international institutions, public statements by political leaders, reports from intergovernmental organisations, dispatches from recognised international news agencies. **Secondary source families**: specialised publications, internationally recognised news media, analyses from established research institutions, reports from industry organisations. When an article cites statistical, economic or geopolitical data, it comes from the institutions that produce it (intergovernmental organisations, central banks, national statistics offices), and the exact institution is named under **Sources**. ### Nature of the analysis The analyses, interpretations and perspectives in the analytical sections of this article are a **critical, contextual synthesis** based on the information available, the trends observed and the expert comments cited in the sources consulted. My role is to interpret these facts, to set them in the context of today's geopolitical and economic dynamics, and to give them a coherent meaning within the larger story of the changes shaping our time. These analyses reflect expertise built through continuous observation of international affairs and an understanding of the strategic mechanisms that drive global actors. This article describes a documented state of affairs on its publication date, not a prediction: later developments may shift its outlook. No update is promised in advance; when an article is corrected or completed, the change is dated in the text. ## Sources ### Primary sources - [CBC News — What's next for CUSMA/USMCA — July 2, 2026](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/what-next-cusma-usmca-us-canada-mexico-trump-tariffs-9.7255435) - [CNBC — Trump won't renew USMCA trade treaty — July 1, 2026](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/01/trump-usmca-canada-mexico-trade-treaty.html) - [Al Jazeera — Why has Trump refused to renew the USMCA — July 2, 2026](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/2/why-has-trump-refused-to-renew-the-usmca-and-what-will-that-mean) ### Secondary sources - [USA Today — Trump won't renew Canada Mexico trade agreement — July 1, 2026](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/07/01/trump-canada-mexico-trade-agreement-usmca-not-renew/90769878007/) - [New York Post — Trump won't renew USMCA deal — July 1, 2026](https://nypost.com/2026/07/01/us-news/trump-wont-renew-usmca-deal-with-canada-and-mexico-trade-rep/) - [Reuters — Politics US Newsletter: Supreme victory — July 2, 2026](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/politics-us-newsletter-supreme-victory-2026-07-02/) --- Source: Maxime Marquette, MadMax. 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