# The day Poland sealed its submarine future with Saab > Introduction: three decades of waiting end in Gdynia - Author: Maxime Marquette - Publisher: MadMax (https://mad-max.co) - Section: Reportage - Published: 2026-07-04 - Canonical URL: https://mad-max.co/en/article/le-jour-ou-la-pologne-a-scelle-son-avenir-sous-marin-avec-saab ## Introduction: three decades of waiting end in **Gdynia** ### A ceremony loaded with symbolism On **June 29, 2026**, in the Baltic port of **Gdynia**, Prime Ministers **Donald Tusk** of **Poland** and **Ulf Kristersson** of **Sweden** witnessed the signing of a contract the Polish navy had waited nearly **three decades** for. Swedish defense giant **Saab** had just secured a **$4.83 billion** contract to supply three **A26**-class **submarines**. This moment is more than a simple commercial transaction. It is the culmination of a program called **Orka**, designed to replace the Polish navy's only submarine still in service, an aging **Kilo-class** vessel dating back to the Soviet era. ### A contract at the heart of European **rearmament** This contract fits into a broader context of **accelerated military modernization** in Northern Europe, fueled in part by the **European** defense loan program **SAFE**, of which Poland was the first beneficiary. *There is something deeply reassuring about watching Northern Europe act with this kind of resolve. For decades, Europeans were criticized for underinvesting in their own defense; this contract proves the lesson was learned, and fast.* ## The technical features of the **A26** submarine ### A design built for the **Baltic** Sea The **A26 Blekinge** is presented by **Saab** as a **fifth-generation** submarine, fitted with an extremely low **acoustic** and magnetic signature, a feature crucial for stealthy operations in the shallow, contested waters of the **Baltic Sea**. This technological discretion is precisely what allowed **Saab** to beat out competing bids from **Germany's ThyssenKrupp** Marine Systems, **Italy's Fincantieri**, **France's Naval Group**, **Spain's Navantia**, and **South Korea's Hanwha Ocean**. ### A contract that goes well beyond the hulls The deal signed in **Gdynia** covers not only the three submarines, but also a **full weapons package**, a **training** and **support** program, as well as the development of **maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO)** capabilities directly in Poland, in close partnership with local industry. *This isn't just an equipment purchase, it's a transfer of industrial know-how that will durably strengthen Poland's defense ecosystem. This is exactly the kind of cooperation that builds genuine European strategic autonomy.* ## A delivery timeline stretching to **2038** ### A first delivery expected in **2031** Under the terms of the contract, the first of the three units will be delivered in **2031**, while full delivery of all three submarines, with trained crews and integrated equipment, will be completed by **2038**. This drawn-out timeline reflects the industrial complexity inherent in building submarines of this sophistication. While waiting for the first **A26** to arrive, **Sweden** will lease Poland a **modernized A17-type submarine**, or in some versions a **Gotland-class** vessel, allowing Polish crews to begin training as early as next year. ### A crucial stopgap solution This **"gap-filler"** solution is essential to preserve the Polish navy's operational know-how, which risked losing its submarine capability during the long construction period for the new vessels. *This kind of logistical foresight shows a strategic maturity you don't always see in major arms programs. Too many countries lose their operational skills while waiting for new equipment; Poland and **Sweden** clearly learned from those past mistakes.* ## European **SAFE** financing, the engine of acceleration ### Poland, pioneer of the European program **Poland** became the first country to sign loans under the European **SAFE (Security Action for Europe)** program, receiving a first disbursement of **€6.6 billion** as early as **May 29, 2026**, as part of a total envelope of **€44 billion** approved by **Brussels**. This European financing adds to an already considerable national budget effort, with Poland aiming to finalize **$27 billion** worth of defense contracts under this program by the end of May, according to statements from Prime Minister **Donald Tusk**. ### A model for other European countries This Polish speed of execution, combining European financing with concrete industrial contracts, is increasingly cited as a model for other European capitals still struggling to turn their spending commitments into actual contracts. *The difference between announcing a **defense budget** and actually signing industrial contracts is exactly what sets Poland apart from several of its European neighbors right now. **Warsaw** doesn't just make promises, it delivers.* ## The economic and industrial fallout ### Thousands of **jobs** on both sides of the Baltic According to Swedish estimates, this contract should generate roughly **7,000 jobs** in **Poland**, in addition to a substantial number of additional positions in **Sweden**. This economic spillover reinforces the argument that defense investments are not just a security cost, but also a regional economic engine. The planned industrial cooperation also includes Sweden's purchase of a rescue vessel named **Ratownik**, built at a Polish shipyard belonging to the **PGZ (Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa)** group, a form of industrial offset that was the subject of prolonged negotiations. ### An industrial file that saw tensions Negotiations over **industrial offsets** nearly derailed the deal several times in the spring, with certain Polish officials from the **Ministry of State Assets** setting a late-June ultimatum to close the deal, or else reopen discussions with alternative bidders. *These last-minute tensions are a reminder that even the strongest defense partnerships are never a done deal until they're signed. But the fact that Warsaw held firm on its industrial demands shows real negotiating sophistication.* ## The strategic context of the Baltic Sea ### A region that has become a theater of tension again The **Baltic Sea** has, in recent years, once again become a major strategic friction point between **NATO** and **Russia**, with a growing number of incidents involving damaged undersea cables and an increased Russian naval presence in the region. In this context, Poland's ability to operate modern, quiet submarines constitutes a direct reinforcement of **NATO's** **deterrence** posture in this sensitive strategic zone, alongside other coastal states such as **Sweden**, itself now a full member of the **Atlantic Alliance**. ### Strengthened deterrence for the entire northern flank The arrival of new Polish submarines will complement an undersea deterrence framework already reinforced by **Sweden** and **Finland's** entry into **NATO**, turning the Baltic into something close to a lake almost entirely surrounded by **allied** countries. *Watching the Baltic gradually turn into a solid allied bastion is exactly the kind of strategic evolution that offers reassurance about the West's ability to adapt to new threats without waiting for a crisis to act.* ## Comparison with other European submarine programs ### A contrast with other nations' setbacks This Polish success stands in sharp contrast with the difficulties faced by other Western submarine programs, notably the **AUKUS** program involving **Australia**, the **United Kingdom**, and the **United States**, which has seen significant delays and schedule revisions, with the first delivery of used American submarines to Australia not expected before the early **2030s**. The relative speed with which Poland ran its own process, from supplier selection in **November 2025** to the signing of the final contract barely seven months later, illustrates a procedural efficiency few programs of this scale manage to sustain. ### Lessons for all European navies This Polish efficiency could serve as a benchmark for other European navies engaged in similar acquisition processes, particularly when it comes to managing industrial offsets and setting realistic delivery timelines. *Credit should go where credit is due: while other multinational programs get bogged down in endless revisions, Poland managed to move forward with a procedural discipline that should inspire its Western partners.* ## Political reactions in Poland and Sweden ### A moment of national pride in Warsaw Poland's Minister of National Defense, **Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz**, hailed the signing as the realization of **"the most modern fifth-generation** submarines," designed specifically to operate under the particular conditions of the Baltic Sea. On the Swedish side, **Saab** CEO **Micael Johansson** had already stressed, at the time of the initial selection last November, that he was **"honored"** by the trust Warsaw placed in the Swedish bid amid fierce international competition. ### A partnership that goes beyond the commercial framework Both leaders stressed that this contract is not just a commercial transaction, but a deepening of defense ties between two **NATO** member countries that share a common strategic maritime border. *This kind of solid bilateral partnership between two European **NATO** allies deserves to be celebrated, especially at a time when some still doubt Europe's ability to coordinate effectively on defense matters.* ## Remaining technical challenges to overcome ### A precedent that calls for caution It's worth noting that the two **A26** submarines already ordered by **Sweden** for its own navy have recently faced delays, with delivery pushed back to **2031** and **2033** respectively. This precedent calls for reasonable caution about the strict timeline announced for Poland. Shipbuilding experts note that the complexity inherent in next-generation submarines, with their advanced **stealth** systems, makes schedule overruns relatively common in this demanding industrial sector. ### Necessary vigilance without excessive pessimism This caution should not, however, overshadow the scale of the commitment made by both governments, nor the industrial solidity of the partnership sealed between **Saab** and the Polish shipyards. *I'd rather stay clear-eyed than naively enthusiastic: Sweden's own delays on its A26 submarines are a legitimate warning sign. But a slight delay on such an ambitious program shouldn't overshadow the strategic importance of what was just signed.* ## Poland's place in the architecture of **European defense** ### A rapidly growing defense budget **Poland** has considerably increased its military spending in recent years, aiming to reach some of the highest investment levels in **NATO** as a proportion of its **gross domestic product**. The **Orka** program represents only a fraction of this massive budgetary effort, which also touches aviation, artillery, and air defense systems. This budgetary trajectory makes Poland one of the most dynamic contributors to strengthening **NATO's** **eastern flank**, a region directly exposed to tensions with **Russia** since the invasion of **Ukraine**. ### An example for the whole Alliance This Polish momentum concretely illustrates what a **NATO** member country can accomplish when it takes its defense spending commitments seriously, combining political will, European financing, and solid industrial partnerships. *If Europe truly wants to shoulder its share of the burden for its own defense, Poland offers a concrete model rather than wishful thinking. This is exactly the kind of example that should inspire budget debates in other hesitant European capitals.* ## Consequences for Sweden's **defense industry** ### A landmark contract for Saab For **Saab**, this **$4.83 billion** contract represents one of the largest export successes in its recent history, strengthening its position in the global market for conventional submarines amid increasingly fierce international competition. This success could also pave the way for further export contracts for the **A26**, particularly with navies of other Baltic or Nordic countries seeking to modernize their own submarine fleets amid persistent regional tension. ### A positive signal for Europe's defense industry Beyond the Swedish case alone, this contract reinforces the notion that Europe's defense industry has the technological capabilities needed to compete with major international players, without systematically depending on suppliers from outside Europe. *This is a powerful argument for anyone advocating European defense industrial autonomy: when the continent's industry delivers products of this caliber, there's no reason to systematically look elsewhere.* ## What this means for deterrence against **Russia** ### A direct reinforcement of **defensive posture** In the context of the war in **Ukraine** and persistent tensions with **Moscow**, every capability boost by a **NATO** member country on the Alliance's eastern flank directly contributes to the West's overall deterrence posture against a **Russia** whose regional intentions remain a legitimate source of concern. Submarine capabilities, in particular, play a strategic role disproportionate to their numbers, given their ability to operate quietly and significantly complicate the calculations of any potential adversary in the region. ### A lasting contribution to **collective security** This contract, even though its operational fruits will only materialize years from now, already sends a clear signal about Poland's determination to fully assume its role in **NATO's** collective security. *It's precisely this kind of long-term commitment, beyond election cycles and budgetary ups and downs, that builds credible deterrence. Poland is setting an example of strategic vision that looks beyond the short term.* ## The role of the Baltic Sea in NATO's new map ### A maritime space redefined by Swedish and Finnish membership The entry of **Sweden** and **Finland** into **NATO** has transformed the strategic geography of the **Baltic Sea**, which is no longer just a commercial shipping route but a space almost entirely bordered by member countries of the Atlantic Alliance. This new configuration fundamentally changes the military calculus for the entire region. The Polish submarine contract fits directly into this reshaping, as it fills a capability gap that has existed since the end of the Cold War, at a time when the region is regaining front-rank strategic importance for all **Western allies**. ### Increased coordination among allied navies Joint naval exercises between **Poland**, **Sweden**, **Finland**, **Germany**, and **Denmark** have multiplied in recent years, a trend expected to intensify once the new Polish submarines are operational and fully integrated into the Alliance's command structures. This reinforced coordination illustrates a deep shift: the **Baltic** is becoming a laboratory for European military integration, where coastal countries are learning to operate together with growing fluidity in the face of a clearly identified common threat. *This growing naval integration among Baltic allies is exactly the kind of concrete cooperation that should reassure skeptics of Western solidarity. We're no longer just talking about joint statements, but about real training and shared capabilities.* ## Future prospects for the **Orka** program ### Extension options already under consideration Some Polish officials have already floated the possibility of expanding the **Orka** program beyond the three units currently ordered, an option that will largely depend on how the regional security context evolves and on available budgetary room in the years ahead. Such an expansion would further strengthen the strategic depth of the Polish submarine fleet, an asset seen as increasingly indispensable given the persistent Russian naval presence in the **Kaliningrad** region, the heavily militarized Russian enclave that directly borders Poland. ### A test of long-term industrial credibility The real test for this partnership between **Saab** and **Poland** will play out in the years ahead, when it will need to be shown that commitments on timeline, technology transfer, and industrial offsets are fully honored, without the slippage seen elsewhere. If this industrial and strategic bet pays off, it could well become the reference point other European countries look to replicate for their own naval **modernization** programs over the coming decade. *I remain convinced that the true measure of this contract's success will be visible in ten years, not today. But the ambition on display already deserves recognition as a strong signal sent to **Moscow**.* ## Conclusion: a milestone for European defense ### A symbol beyond the strict naval framework The signing of the **Orka** contract in **Gdynia** on **June 29, 2026**, goes well beyond the framework of a simple submarine purchase. It illustrates a broader dynamic of European rearmament taking ownership of itself, financed in part by common European mechanisms like **SAFE**, and carried forward by solid industrial partnerships among **NATO** allies. Despite the scheduling challenges that could arise before the full delivery expected in **2038**, this contract represents a significant milestone in Northern Europe's military modernization trajectory. ### A model for the continent to follow It remains to be seen whether other European capitals will manage to turn their own rearmament ambitions into contracts as concrete and structuring as the one sealed between **Warsaw** and **Stockholm**. *This contract will remain, I believe, a benchmark for measuring the sincerity of European rearmament in the years to come. Words and announced budgets are worth nothing without signatures like the one in Gdynia.* **By Maxime Marquette, columnist** ## Columnist's transparency note ### Editorial stance I am not a journalist but a **columnist and analyst**. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies. I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. **I claim analytical clarity**, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events. ### Method and sources This text keeps the basic distinction between **verified facts and interpretive analysis**. The rule never changes: a factual claim is published only when a verifiable source supports it, and the sources this article actually used are listed under **Sources**, never here. **Primary source families** used by the publication, when the story has them: official statements from governments and international institutions, public statements by political leaders, reports from intergovernmental organisations, dispatches from recognised international news agencies. **Secondary source families**: specialised publications, internationally recognised news media, analyses from established research institutions, reports from industry organisations. When an article cites statistical, economic or geopolitical data, it comes from the institutions that produce it (intergovernmental organisations, central banks, national statistics offices), and the exact institution is named under **Sources**. ### Nature of the analysis The analyses, interpretations and perspectives in the analytical sections of this article are a **critical, contextual synthesis** based on the information available, the trends observed and the expert comments cited in the sources consulted. My role is to interpret these facts, to set them in the context of today's geopolitical and economic dynamics, and to give them a coherent meaning within the larger story of the changes shaping our time. These analyses reflect expertise built through continuous observation of international affairs and an understanding of the strategic mechanisms that drive global actors. This article describes a documented state of affairs on its publication date, not a prediction: later developments may shift its outlook. No update is promised in advance; when an article is corrected or completed, the change is dated in the text. ## Sources ### Primary sources - [Saab — Official press release on the order for three submarines for Poland, June 29, 2026](https://www.saab.com/newsroom/press-releases/2026/saab-receives-order-for-three-submarines-for-poland) - [Reuters — Poland signs order for three Saab submarines worth $4.8 billion, June 29, 2026](https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/saab-wins-483-billion-submarine-order-poland-2026-06-29/) ### Secondary sources - [Defense News — Poland awards $4.8 billion A26 submarine contract to Saab, June 29, 2026](https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2026/06/29/poland-awards-48-billion-a26-submarine-deal-to-saab/) - [Breaking Defense — Poland signs $4.8 billion contract for Saab-made A26 submarines](https://breakingdefense.com/2026/06/poland-signs-4-8-billion-contract-for-saab-made-a26-submarines/) - [Notes From Poland — Poland signs its first defense contracts under the EU's SAFE program, May 29, 2026](https://notesfrompoland.com/2026/05/29/poland-signs-first-defence-contracts-under-eus-safe-programme/) - [Army Recognition — Poland orders three Saab A26 submarines to rebuild its Baltic Sea undersea warfare capability](https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/navy-news/2026/poland-orders-3-swedish-saab-a26-submarines-to-rebuild-baltic-sea-undersea-warfare-capability) --- Source: Maxime Marquette, MadMax. When citing, name the author and link https://mad-max.co/en/article/le-jour-ou-la-pologne-a-scelle-son-avenir-sous-marin-avec-saab