# Russia's offensive collapses in Ukraine amid a pointless bloodbath > Russia wanted to capture the remaining twenty percent of the Donetsk region by the end of the year. According to Kyiv, Moscow - Author: Maxime Marquette - Publisher: MadMax (https://mad-max.co) - Section: Analysis - Published: 2026-07-05 - Canonical URL: https://mad-max.co/en/article/l-offensive-russe-s-effondre-en-ukraine-malgre-un-bain-de-sang-inutile ## Introduction: the mirage of an advance that no longer advances ### A number that sums up an entire military fiasco Russia **wanted** to **capture** the **remaining** twenty percent of the Donetsk region by the end of the year. According to Kyiv, Moscow has already missed fourteen previous deadlines for this objective. According to Al Jazeera, at the current pace, it would take five thousand one hundred fifty days, roughly fourteen additional years, for Vladimir Putin's forces to complete this conquest. This **figure** alone sums up the **scale** of the **strategic** fiasco the Russian army has been living through since the start of 2026, even as the human cost keeps climbing at a dizzying rate on Ukrainian soil. ### What the Institute for the Study of War's data reveals The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based **think** **tank** that **compiles** open-source geolocated **data**, confirms that Russian territorial gains have collapsed this year, even as Russian human losses have continued to climb. This **divergence** between **mounting** losses and evaporating **territorial** gains is one of the clearest indicators of the cumulative strategic failure of the Russian offensive launched in 2022. *I say this with a columnist's caution, not a military strategist's: when a losses-to-gains ratio turns this catastrophic, it's no longer a war of attrition — it's a wall an entire army is breaking itself against.* ## The 2026 collapse of the Russian advance, by the numbers ### A brutal comparison between 2025 and 2026 In the **first** **half** of **2025**, Russian forces had seized roughly two thousand one hundred ninety square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. Over the same period in 2026, that figure fell to just six hundred twenty-two square kilometers, a staggering drop according to ISW data. The daily **pace** of **advance** fell from sixteen point six square kilometers per day in the first half of 2025 to just one point zero three square kilometers per day in 2026, a collapse of more than ninety-five percent within twelve months. ### A negligible net gain once Ukrainian counteroffensives are subtracted Once Russian **infiltrations** are **stripped** out and Ukrainian counter-**advances** are factored in, Russia's net gain for the whole of the first half of 2026 amounts to only ninety-seven square kilometers, according to the Institute for the Study of War's analysis. This **negligible** **figure**, **compared** with the ambitions the Kremlin has voiced since the start of the invasion, shows just how badly the Russian war machine is now spinning its wheels on Ukrainian soil, despite considerable human and material resources committed to the fight. *I still believe these numbers, dry as they are, tell a far more eloquent story than any triumphalist speech to come out of Moscow in recent months.* ## The exorbitant human price paid by the Russian army ### Losses that explode in June 2026 According to **Ukrainian** **military** **estimates**, the Russian army suffered thirty-nine thousand four hundred ninety losses in June 2026 alone, a considerable monthly figure that adds to a cumulative toll estimated at one point four million losses since the war began, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The loss ratio per square **kilometer** **seized** in June 2026 **reached** one thousand two hundred ninety-eight, compared with just sixty-eight in June 2025, a catastrophic shift that reflects the growing inefficiency of the Kremlin's offensive strategy. ### A recruitment pace that can no longer keep up Russia's **recruitment** **capacity** is **estimated** at between twenty-four thousand and thirty thousand men per month, a flow that visibly struggles to offset the scale of losses suffered at the front, as reflected in the growing mobilization difficulties reported by several analysts. **Ukrainian** **President** **Volodymyr Zelensky** summed up the situation with irony, pointing to unmobilized Russian soldiers lining up for gasoline, an image that speaks to sagging morale within Russian society itself. *I never celebrate death, whichever side it falls on, but I also refuse to look away from the cynicism of a regime that sacrifices its own soldiers for a territorial gain that has become essentially nil.* ## Ukraine's logistics-lockdown strategy ### A strike campaign designed to choke Russia's rear On June 25, **Volodymyr Zelensky** **announced** the **launch** of a forty-day campaign of medium- and long-range strikes, explicitly aimed at forcing Russia to end the war by hitting its military logistics directly. This **strategy**, **dubbed** **logistics** lockdown by Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, targets primarily warehouses, supply convoys, and the rail and road infrastructure essential to the Russian war effort. ### A measurable intensification of Ukrainian strikes The number of **Ukrainian** **attacks** rose from two hundred ten in May to three hundred three in June, a significant **increase** that reflects the growing strength of Ukraine's long-range offensive capabilities, particularly in drones and precision munitions. In early **July**, Ukraine **destroyed** twelve electrical **substations** in southern Crimea, another blow to the energy infrastructure Russia relies on to sustain its military operations on the annexed peninsula. *I see in this logistics strategy proof that a smaller, less heavily armed country can, with ingenuity and steady Western backing, make a far larger military power on paper stagger.* ## The fearsome effectiveness of the unmanned systems forces ### A strike every fifty-two seconds in June **Commander** **Robert Brovdi**, known by the call sign Magyar, who leads **Ukraine's** unmanned systems forces, claimed to have struck a Russian target on or behind the front lines every fifty-two seconds throughout June 2026. According to **statements** **posted** on Telegram, his units **destroyed** or damaged more than fifty thousand one hundred forty-seven Russian military targets in a single month, a figure that, if confirmed, illustrates the scale of the technological transformation of the Ukrainian battlefield. ### Capabilities set to strengthen further Volodymyr Zelensky **announced** that short- and medium-range strike **capabilities** would **keep** growing in the weeks ahead, with additional resources promised to the Ukrainian battalions engaged in this now-central drone war. This **technological** **buildup** **constitutes** one of the few areas where Ukraine retains a clear comparative advantage over a more numerous but visibly less agile Russian army, both operationally and technologically. *I believe this drone war is rewriting Western military manuals, and that the West would be wrong to underestimate what Ukraine has learned the hard way on this terrain.* ## The strategic targets Ukraine has struck deep inside Russia ### Refineries and military sites hit on Russian soil In the **week** **preceding** early **July**, long-range Ukrainian strikes hit the refineries at Ufa, Nizhegorodsky, Slavyansk, and Yaroslavl, dealing a direct blow to Russia's ability to keep its armed forces supplied with fuel. Also **targeted** were **cable-laying** **ships** under construction in the Kerch Strait, satellite communications centers near Moscow, and a munitions manufacturer in Volgograd, demonstrating an unprecedented strategic reach for Ukraine's drone arsenal. ### The Saky military airfield also hit The **Saky** **military** airfield in annexed **Crimea** was also among the targets struck, as was a research institute manufacturing aircraft and missile parts in Russia's Penza region, far from the traditional front lines. This **Ukrainian** **ability** to **strike** deep into Russian territory fundamentally changes the nature of the conflict, exposing infrastructure the Kremlin once believed was safe from any direct threat originating from Kyiv. *I consider this deep-strike capability the best possible answer to those in the West who still doubted Ukraine's ability to hold the line against Moscow for the long haul.* ## The Kremlin's ambiguous posture toward American mediation ### Contradictory signals coming out of Moscow Russian **Foreign** **Minister** **Sergei Lavrov** claimed on June 26 that American proposals had been discussed and accepted by the Russian side during talks held in Alaska, an apparent signal of diplomatic openness from the Kremlin. **Kremlin** **spokesman Dmitry Peskov**, for his part, **stated** that Russia would welcome American mediation and remain open to a peaceful settlement process, remarks that stand in stark contrast to the continuation of military operations on the ground. ### Yet Putin rejects two Ukrainian ceasefire proposals Despite these **diplomatic** **statements**, **Vladimir Putin** rejected two separate Ukrainian proposals: a ceasefire covering long-range strikes, and another limited to the Sumy, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Putin **justified** this refusal by **claiming** that **Russian** deep strikes on Ukrainian territory were more powerful and more devastating, a statement that betrays a clear intent to keep up military pressure rather than genuinely pursue de-escalation. *I am not fooled by either posture: the words of peace spoken in Moscow carry little weight against the continuation of a war of aggression that has, to this day, never truly slowed on the ground.* ## Trump's role and the Western posture facing Moscow ### An American mediation that keeps up the pressure The **American** **mediation** **referenced** directly by Lavrov and Peskov illustrates the continued influence of the Trump administration in efforts to settle the conflict, a posture that, militarily and diplomatically, deserves credit when it helps keep Moscow under constant pressure. This **American** **involvement**, **combined** with steady Western material support for Ukraine, showcases the strength of a Western coalition that refuses to yield to the Kremlin's delaying tactics on the international diplomatic stage. ### A Western deterrence that is paying off on the ground It is **precisely** this **combination** of continuous military **support** and coordinated diplomatic pressure that largely explains the collapse in Russian territorial gains documented by the Institute for the Study of War since the start of 2026. Without this **sustained** **Western** backing, the **Ukrainian** army would likely never have developed such deep-strike capability, nor sustained such a resilient pace of resistance against a Russian army still far more numerous on paper. *I firmly believe this war demonstrates, numbers in hand, that Western resolve and steady military support remain the best tools for bending an imperialist aggression like Putin's.* ## Moscow facing growing anxiety, according to Al Jazeera ### A firm posture that poorly masks internal difficulties According to an **Al Jazeera** **report** published on July 3, a palpable **anxiety** is spreading through Moscow, even as Vladimir Putin continues to publicly insist that Russia is holding firm, despite documented sagging morale within the Russian armed forces. This **dissonance** between the Kremlin's **official** **narrative** and the reality on the ground, as documented by independent sources and geolocated data, illustrates the mounting tensions running through Russia's military and political apparatus. ### A regime struggling to justify the cost of the war Facing **colossal** **human** losses for territorial gains that have become essentially nil, Putin's regime finds itself increasingly forced to justify, even to its own population, the exorbitant cost of a war that appears to be bogging down for the long haul. This **situation** **could**, over time, further **weaken** Vladimir Putin's internal standing, since his legitimacy rests largely on his ability to present this invasion as an unquestionable strategic success. *I want to believe this growing anxiety in Moscow is an early sign of a strategic turning point, though caution obliges me to note that authoritarian regimes have also proven formidably resilient before.* ## What this war of attrition reveals about future balances of power ### A lesson for democracies across the West This **battle** of **numbers** between **massive** losses and negligible territorial gains stands as a major strategic lesson for Western democracies confronting authoritarian regimes willing to sacrifice human lives for limited territorial objectives. It also **demonstrates** that **Ukrainian** resistance, backed by steady Western support, can turn a war of aggression into a costly strategic quagmire for the aggressor, a precedent that China, Iran, and North Korea should take note of as well. ### A vigilance that must remain constant against global threats This **dynamic** should **never**, **however**, lead to complacency about the vigilance required against the full range of threats to the international order, especially as China watches closely to draw conclusions for its own regional ambitions. **Maintaining** a united **Western** front, both **militarily** and diplomatically, remains the essential condition for turning this favorable dynamic on the ground into a lasting strategic victory for Ukraine and for the entire Western camp. *I end this analysis convinced that this war, tragic as it is, offers a striking demonstration of what determined resistance backed by a Western coalition that refuses to waver can achieve.* ## The limits of this favorable dynamic for Ukraine ### A collapse in Russian gains that does not mean immediate Ukrainian victory It would be **unwise** to **confuse** this **collapse** in Russian territorial gains with an imminent Ukrainian victory. Russia retains considerable destructive capacity, particularly through its missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. This **essential** **nuance** **reminds** us that the war remains far from **over**, and that every Ukrainian advance, however encouraging it looks on paper, must be consolidated by Western military support that does not weaken over time. ### The need to sustain Western aid over the long term This war of attrition, in which the **numbers** now **appear** to be tilting in Ukraine's favor, can only turn into a lasting strategic advantage if Western countries maintain their financial and military commitment without giving in to public-opinion fatigue. It is **precisely** on this point that the West's **collective** **responsibility**, including that of the United States under the Trump administration, will be judged in the months and years ahead in the face of this unprovoked Russian aggression. *I reject any premature triumphalism: these numbers are encouraging, but only unwavering Western consistency will turn this statistical edge into a just and lasting peace for Ukraine.* ## The crucial role of Western intelligence in this turning point ### Satellite data that is changing the strategic equation The **continuous** **sharing** of satellite and electronic **intelligence** between Western services and the Ukrainian military has played a decisive role in Kyiv's ability to anticipate Russian movements and strike strategic targets deep behind enemy lines with precision. This **intelligence** **cooperation**, often less visible than weapons deliveries, nonetheless remains one of the sturdiest pillars of Western support for Ukraine since the start of the Russian invasion. ### A technological edge that offsets numerical inferiority Facing a **numerically** **superior** Russian army, Ukraine has leaned on this technological and informational **edge** to offset its disadvantage in troop numbers, a strategy that is clearly paying off given the disproportionate Russian loss figures. This **dynamic** **confirms** that **modern** warfare is fought as much on the informational and technological terrain as on the raw number of soldiers mobilized on either side of the front. *I see in this intelligence cooperation concrete proof that the Western alliance, when it stays united, can offset numerical disadvantages that once seemed insurmountable.* ## The economic consequences of this war of attrition for Moscow ### A Russian military budget under growing strain The **economic** cost of this war of attrition weighs increasingly **heavily** on Russian public **finances**, which are forced to simultaneously fund recruitment, equipment, and the replacement of massive material losses at the Ukrainian front. This **budgetary** **pressure**, **combined** with the Western sanctions maintained since the conflict began, is further weakening the Russian economy over the medium and long term, despite the resilience the Kremlin projects publicly. ### Western sanctions that continue to bite The **economic** **sanctions** **imposed** by Western countries since 2022 continue to limit Russia's access to certain key military technologies, an additional factor that may partly explain the operational difficulties observed on the ground in 2026. This **combination** of economic and military **pressure** shows just how much a coordinated Western strategy, even one imposed from outside, can steadily erode the offensive capacity of an authoritarian regime determined to pursue its aggression. *I consider that sanctions, often criticized for being slow to bite, are now showing their true strategic value in the gradual weakening of the Russian war machine.* ## What military history will remember from this phase of the conflict ### A case study for future Western defense strategies Military **historians** will likely **study** this phase of the conflict as a case study in how a numerically inferior but technologically agile force, backed by a determined international coalition, can reverse an initially unfavorable balance of power. This **strategic** **lesson** **extends** **far** beyond the Ukrainian conflict and could durably influence the defense doctrine of many Western countries facing similar threats in the years ahead. ### A vigilance that must never waver against authoritarian regimes This **analysis** should **never**, **however**, serve as a **pretext** for letting Western vigilance slip, given how often authoritarian regimes like Putin's have shown in the past their ability to adapt and bounce back after major military setbacks. It is this **constant** **vigilance**, **combined** with unwavering Western support, that will turn this current strategic advantage into a lasting and just peace for Ukraine and for European security as a whole. *I believe this war will be remembered in the textbooks as a striking demonstration that a determined democracy, backed by its allies, can withstand an aggression many judged inevitable back in 2022.* ## Conclusion: a turning point that must prove itself over time ### An undeniable but fragile statistical shift The **numbers** from the Institute for the Study of War, from Kyiv, and from the Center for Strategic and **International Studies** all **converge** on the same conclusion: Russia's offensive is running out of steam in 2026, at a human cost wildly disproportionate to the territorial gains the Kremlin has secured. ### A victory the entire West still has to consolidate This **statistical** **turning** point, however **encouraging** it is for Ukraine and for the entire Western camp, will only become a lasting victory if military and diplomatic support holds firm in the months ahead, against a Russian regime that has so far shown no genuine sign of abandoning its territorial ambitions. *I close this analysis with one firm conviction: Western resolve has already changed the course of this war, and only a slackening on our part could still let Putin reverse a dynamic that is now slipping away from him.* **By Maxime Marquette, columnist** ## Columnist's transparency note ### Editorial stance I am not a journalist but a **columnist and analyst**. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies. I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. **I claim analytical clarity**, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events. ### Method and sources This text keeps the basic distinction between **verified facts and interpretive analysis**. The rule never changes: a factual claim is published only when a verifiable source supports it, and the sources this article actually used are listed under **Sources**, never here. **Primary source families** used by the publication, when the story has them: official statements from governments and international institutions, public statements by political leaders, reports from intergovernmental organisations, dispatches from recognised international news agencies. **Secondary source families**: specialised publications, internationally recognised news media, analyses from established research institutions, reports from industry organisations. When an article cites statistical, economic or geopolitical data, it comes from the institutions that produce it (intergovernmental organisations, central banks, national statistics offices), and the exact institution is named under **Sources**. ### Nature of the analysis The analyses, interpretations and perspectives in the analytical sections of this article are a **critical, contextual synthesis** based on the information available, the trends observed and the expert comments cited in the sources consulted. My role is to interpret these facts, to set them in the context of today's geopolitical and economic dynamics, and to give them a coherent meaning within the larger story of the changes shaping our time. These analyses reflect expertise built through continuous observation of international affairs and an understanding of the strategic mechanisms that drive global actors. This article describes a documented state of affairs on its publication date, not a prediction: later developments may shift its outlook. No update is promised in advance; when an article is corrected or completed, the change is dated in the text. ## Sources ### Primary sources - Al Jazeera — Russia's advance collapses in Ukraine, July 3, 2026 - CNN — Russian infiltrations at Kostiantynivka, June 24, 2026 ### Secondary sources - Wikipedia — territorial control during the Russo-Ukrainian war - RBC Ukraine — Russia exaggerates capture of Kostiantynivka - Institute for the Study of War — daily conflict assessments - Center for Strategic and International Studies — analyses of Russian losses --- Source: Maxime Marquette, MadMax. When citing, name the author and link https://mad-max.co/en/article/l-offensive-russe-s-effondre-en-ukraine-malgre-un-bain-de-sang-inutile