# INVESTIGATION: Kostiantynivka, the City Putin Claims to Hold Without Ever Holding It

> There are military claims that even the most obedient allies of Russian power eventually can't repeat without wincing. Kostiantynivka has become the clearest example of that this summer of 2026.

- Author: Maxime Marquette
- Publisher: MadMax (https://mad-max.co)
- Section: Investigation
- Published: 2026-07-20
- Canonical URL: https://mad-max.co/en/article/investigation-kostiantynivka-the-city-putin-claims-to-hold-without-ever-holding

## Introduction: a city no one truly controls

### The lie an independent Russian outlet refuses to carry

There are military claims that even the most obedient allies of Russian power eventually can't repeat without wincing. **Kostiantynivka** has become the clearest example of that this summer of 2026. On July 8, the independent Russian outlet **Meduza** published a detailed analysis that contradicts, point by point, the triumphant version **Moscow** has been pushing for days. According to this investigation, neither side is right about this **city** in the **Donetsk** region: **Russia** has not captured **Kostiantynivka**, but **Ukraine** no longer fully controls it either, since its troops still hold positions even in the city center.

This finding deserves to be taken seriously precisely because it doesn't come from a Ukrainian outlet or a Western spokesperson, but from an independent Russian newsroom that has no interest in going easy on the **Kremlin**. When a Russian source refuses to validate official propaganda about a city, it means the reality on the **ground** has become too stubborn to dress up. The **battle** for **Kostiantynivka** looks less like a completed conquest than a quagmire both sides struggle to admit for what it is.

### A symbolic city for a front that resists simple narratives

**Kostiantynivka** is not an anonymous city on the map of the **Donbas**. It forms a major logistical and defensive hub for the Ukrainian army in the region, and its complete fall would represent, for the **Kremlin**, a communications trophy as much as a real territorial gain. It is precisely because the symbolic stakes are so high that the temptation to proclaim a premature **victory** is so strong in **Moscow** — and that is also why the denial issued by **Meduza** carries so much weight in the public debate over the real state of the **front**.

What this controversy reveals, at bottom, is the growing difficulty of distinguishing, in this **war**, the political **announcement** from tactical reality. Both sides have an interest in inflating their successes, but the gap between official Russian maps and independent findings has rarely been as glaring as on this particular file.

*I don't trust a map simply because it comes from **Kyiv**, or because it comes from **Moscow**. But when an independent Russian outlet, in the middle of a **war**, dares to publicly contradict its own country's general staff, that deserves to be heard with the utmost attention, because that kind of journalistic courage comes at a steep price in **Russia**.*

***Zelensky** remains a hero for having held this country together against the most brutal invasion Europe has seen since 1945. But even a hero cannot indefinitely make up for Western delays in munitions deliveries.*

## The Russian maneuver to cut Ukraine's last road

### The weighting-materials plant, the siege's quiet key

According to **Meduza**, in early July 2026 Russian forces methodically maneuvered to cut Ukraine's last supply road into **Kostiantynivka**, by seizing the grounds of a weighting-materials plant, the "Zavod Utyazhelitelei," located near the railway that runs through the city. This technical detail, almost trivial on the surface, actually reveals the logic of a methodical siege rather than a spectacular frontal **assault**.

Cutting a supply route doesn't produce an image of immediate conquest, but it is often the most decisive step in a prolonged urban **battle**. By targeting an apparently secondary industrial site, Russian forces are seeking to gradually strangle Ukraine's ability to resupply the positions it still holds inside the city.

### A siege tactic rather than a resounding victory

This logistical-strangulation approach confirms a pattern already seen elsewhere on the **Donbas** **front**: rather than claiming a sudden, brutal capture, Russian forces advance by nibbling, securing peripheral footholds before claiming a broader control they haven't yet actually established. Despite this, the **Russian army** still finds itself, unit by unit, up against a Ukrainian **resistance** that refuses to give way all at once.

This methodical slowness carries a political cost for **Moscow**, which must manage the gap between the real tempo of operations and its domestic audience's expectation of quick announcements. It is precisely this gap that pushes some Russian spokespeople to announce victories that, in fact, have not yet been consummated on the **ground**.

*A weighting-materials plant doesn't make headlines, but it tells the truth of this **war** better than any triumphant **Kremlin** communiqué. It's in these overlooked technical details that you find the raw reality of the **front**, far from the slogans.*

## What the ISW says about the real Russian advance

### Thirty-seven percent, not a hundred percent

The **Institute for the Study of War** assessed that Russian forces maintain a presence, through advance or infiltration, in 36.98 percent of **Kostiantynivka**, having achieved 76.73 percent of their gains in June 2026 during that single month alone. This technical figure sharply contradicts the July 3 **announcement** by Russia's defense ministry proclaiming the city's complete capture. A third of the city is not the whole city, and that nuance changes everything in assessing the real balance of power.

Analysts also note that Russian forces began infiltrating **Kostiantynivka** as early as October 2025, but only started consolidating significant tactical gains in June 2026, after months of intensified infiltration missions and an air campaign aimed at cutting off Ukrainian forces from their logistics.

### An oversized army for a limited result

To partially seize this single city, **Russia** has deployed at least one full combined-arms army and one army corps, along with elements from at least four other armies and naval infantry formations. This disproportionate deployment, measured against a mid-sized city, illustrates the exorbitant price **Moscow** is willing to pay for a symbol rather than a decisive **strategic** gain.

The same analysts believe Russian forces will likely continue to make tactical gains at **Kostiantynivka** through summer 2026, but remain unlikely to achieve a rapid operational breakthrough against the entire Ukrainian fortress belt.

*A third of a city taken after months of siege with several armies mobilized: that's what the **Kremlin** calls a **victory**. I'd rather stick to verified figures than announcements, and those figures tell the story of a **strategic** failure dressed up as a triumph.*

## Direct testimony from soldiers on the ground

### Eleven assaults repelled in a single day

Major **Andriy Kovalov**, spokesman for the Ukrainian general staff, reported that Ukrainian troops held designated lines and repelled eleven separate Russian assaults in a single day early last Friday in July. "The situation remains difficult, but it is under the control of Ukraine's **defense** forces," he said. That careful but firm phrasing captures the constant tension between acknowledging difficulty and refusing to give in to a narrative of disaster.

Brigadier General **Oleksandr Bakulin**, commander of the 19th Army Corps responsible for defending the city, confirmed that more than a hundred Russian **soldiers** had entered the city, a figure some Ukrainian journalists have estimated closer to two hundred and fifty. "There is no specific area currently under enemy control," he specified, adding that only isolated buildings were held by the Russians.

### Man-by-man infiltration, never in columns

Unlike previous battles, Russian **soldiers** no longer infiltrate the city in units or even pairs, but one at a time, according to details provided by General **Bakulin**. This tactical detail reflects the scale of Russian losses inflicted on every attempt to regroup, forcing the occupying army to adopt extreme caution in its urban movements.

The massive use of combat **drones** by both sides has made any group movement practically suicidal, turning the urban **battle** into a succession of individual duels where every street corner may hide a shooter or a waiting drone.

*Eleven assaults repelled in a day — that doesn't make Western headlines, but it should. These Ukrainian **soldiers** deserve to be named and recognized for what they are: the last line of **defense** of a free world that, too often, looks the other way.*

## The broader context of the Donbas front

### Two hundred sixty-eight clashes in a single day

On July 9, 2026, the Ukrainian general staff logged 268 engagements across the entire **front** in a single day, with the heaviest fighting precisely in the **Pokrovsk** and **Kostiantynivka** sectors. The day before, on July 6, the daily tally had already reached 255 engagements. These numbers confirm a continuing intensification of the fighting, far from any summer slowdown.

During this same period, Russian forces launched dozens of **missiles** and thousands of kamikaze **drones** against the whole of Ukrainian territory, striking residential, agricultural and energy infrastructure across several regions, from Chernihiv to Zaporizhzhia.

### Kostiantynivka, the gateway to Kramatorsk

Russian forces have targeted Kostiantynivka for months, viewing it as the gateway to **Kramatorsk**, the last major stronghold of **Donetsk** province coveted by **Vladimir Putin** but still held by **Ukraine**. A belt of cities — **Sloviansk**, **Kramatorsk**, Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka — has been severely damaged by aerial bombardment in recent months, forcing thousands of **civilians** to flee.

This geography of the front explains why every meter gained or lost at Kostiantynivka has strategic repercussions far beyond the city itself, within a chain of fortresses whose gradual fall would determine the fate of the entire eastern **Donbas**.

*What strikes me about this figure of 268 clashes in a day is the relative silence of our Western media about this intensity. It's almost as if the **war** has become a routine no one comments on anymore, even as it intensifies before our eyes.*

## The human toll on remaining civilians

### A city turned grey zone

Ukrainian **soldiers** interviewed by the **BBC** describe a reality beyond any official map: Kostiantynivka now exists in a "grey zone," effectively outside anyone's clear control. That phrase has become the most honest vocabulary to describe the real state of the front in this kind of prolonged urban battle, where Ukrainian and Russian positions intermingle to the point that drawing a classic front line becomes impossible.

An anonymous Ukrainian drone pilot summed up the situation with chilling precision: the Russian rate of advance is sometimes limited to a hundred meters a day, sometimes to crawling toward the next building. "We're still running clearing and **assault** teams in the city, but the Russians keep massing more troops there," he said.

### The price paid by a population that has nearly vanished

Almost all **civilians** have fled the city, but those who remain, often elderly people unable to leave or refusing to abandon their homes, now live under near-constant bombardment. No building has escaped Russian air **strikes**, according to testimony gathered by several Western correspondents on the ground.

This situation echoes, with painful precision, what was experienced by **Bakhmut** and **Pokrovsk** before it: the methodical transformation of a living city into a field of ruins fought over meter by meter, with no diplomatic solution stepping in to interrupt this cycle of destruction.

*I often think of these elderly residents who refuse to leave, not out of naivety but because they've already lost everything elsewhere. Their silent stubbornness may be the purest form of **resistance** in this **war**, and it deserves to be told with as much gravity as troop movements.*

## Vladimir Putin and the temptation of the announced victory

### A general reporting an unconsummated victory

On July 3, 2026, Russia's defense ministry announced the complete capture of **Kostiantynivka**. General **Valery Gerasimov** personally reported this **announcement** to **Vladimir Putin** during a visit to a command post, according to official Russian statements. This carefully staged scene, with a general personally coming to bring the news to the president, illustrates the political importance the **Kremlin** attaches to this symbol.

The next day, **Ukraine** categorically rejected these claims. The spokesman for the 19th Army Corps said Ukrainian forces maintained a presence throughout the city and continued to strike Russian groups pursuing their infiltration.

### "Simply a Russian lie to create a news story"

**Volodymyr Zelensky** responded with characteristic firmness, calling the report "simply a Russian lie designed to create a news story." The Ukrainian president also challenged **Putin** to meet him directly in Kostiantynivka and called for finding diplomatic solutions to end the **war** — a gesture both provocative and revealing of his confidence in the ground truth he knows.

This kind of exchange, where a democratically elected leader openly dares an autocrat to come see for himself the reality he claims to control, sums up on its own the difference in nature between the two regimes engaged in this conflict.

***Zelensky** remains, in moments like this, exactly the leader **Ukraine** needs: clear-eyed about the ground truth, but never resigned in the face of lies. The contrast with a **Putin** who settles for flattering reports from compliant generals is striking.*

## Documented Russian losses around the city

### Twelve hundred men in twenty-four hours

According to the July 6 tally, total Russian invader losses across the entire front over the preceding twenty-four hours amounted to 1,200 men. Nine tanks, five armored combat vehicles, fifty-seven artillery systems, five air-defense systems, thirty-seven **missiles**, fifteen ground robotic systems, 2,139 unmanned aerial vehicles and 399 enemy vehicles were also destroyed that same day.

These figures, provided by the Ukrainian general staff and therefore to be treated with the methodological caution required of any source engaged in a conflict, nonetheless paint a trend consistent with independent **ISW** assessments of the attrition rate suffered by the **Russian army** for every marginal territorial gain.

### The human price of a nibbling strategy

The contrast between the scale of reported losses and the modesty of territorial gains confirmed by independent sources raises a central question about the **strategic** rationality of the **Kremlin**: how long can an army sacrifice so many men for gains measured in dozens of square meters per day?

The answer, for now, seems to be that **Moscow** is prepared to continue indefinitely, as long as the Russian political system remains capable of recruiting new **soldiers** without triggering a major social rupture in domestic public opinion.

*Twelve hundred men in a single day for a few hundred meters of ground: that's the kind of statistic that should haunt every Kremlin adviser, assuming there's a single one left willing to tell **Putin** the truth.*

## The lessons of Pokrovsk applied to Kostiantynivka

### A precedent feeding cautious hope

Last winter, in a situation similar to **Pokrovsk** and the neighboring city of Myrnohrad, nearly encircled Ukrainian units held their positions for more than a month before any collapse. This precedent feeds a cautious hope for Kostiantynivka: Ukrainian defensive tenacity has already shown its capacity to turn an announced encirclement into a quagmire for the attacker.

At Kostiantynivka, the situation actually remains slightly less critical than at **Pokrovsk** at its worst point, because Ukrainian forces still hold positions on both flanks of the advancing Russian force, to the west and to the east. Russian units advancing through Dovha Balka in the west and Novodmytrivka in the east have not yet achieved the deep encirclement that would allow the city's complete occupation.

### Six months to reach the next suburbs

Six months have passed since **Russia** captured **Pokrovsk** and Myrnohrad, and its troops are only now starting to try to reach the outskirts of Dobropillia, the next objective on this axis. This slowness, if repeated at Kostiantynivka, would give **Ukraine** precious time to reinforce its lines further west, toward **Kramatorsk** and **Sloviansk**.

This chronological comparison should nonetheless be handled with caution: each city presents a different geography and defensive architecture, and nothing guarantees the pace observed at **Pokrovsk** will repeat identically at **Kostiantynivka**.

*I refuse to give in to fatalism about Kostiantynivka simply because other cities fell before it. Every additional month of **resistance** is a victory in itself, and this war's history has already disproved plenty of pessimistic forecasts.*

## The impact of the Ankara summit on this specific front

### A Patriot license that won't arrive in time for Kostiantynivka

The **NATO** summit in **Ankara**, on July 8, 2026, delivered its most talked-about announcement: **Donald Trump** promised **Zelensky** a license for **Ukraine** to manufacture its own **Patriot** interceptors. But neither Lockheed Martin nor RTX, the system's manufacturers, had been informed of the announcement at the time it was made, and the technical terms remained entirely to be negotiated.

For the **soldiers** defending Kostiantynivka today, under near-daily drone and artillery **strikes**, this license changes absolutely nothing about their immediate reality. Significant production isn't expected before late 2027 or 2028, a delay that will do nothing to help the **defense** of this specific city this summer.

### Seventy billion euros, part of it recycled

The summit's final declaration commits the Allies to provide at least 70 billion euros in **military** equipment to Ukraine for 2026. But a detailed analysis shows that a large share of the total envelope announced actually comes from pre-existing European loans and already-planned bilateral commitments, rather than genuinely new capital generated by the summit itself.

This gap between the announcement and the accounting reality is not trivial for the soldiers of Kostiantynivka: it reveals a dynamic in which Western governments excel at recycling commitments already made under a new rhetorical wrapper.

*A license for 2028 doesn't defend a besieged city in 2026. I'll keep saying it: promises for the future never replace present-day munitions, and Kostiantynivka will pay the price if the **West** keeps confusing the two.*

## The psychological dimension of this battle of narratives

### Both sides have an interest in lying, but not in the same way

The battle of narratives around Kostiantynivka illustrates a deep asymmetry between the two sides. The Kremlin lies to mask the relative failure of its **offensive** and to keep up the morale of a domestic audience increasingly tired of a war that drags on. Ukraine, for its part, has an interest in downplaying its difficulties to preserve Western support and avoid any sense of fatalism among its allies.

This difference in motivation does not make the two sides morally equivalent: one is defending its national survival against an invasion, the other is trying to justify a war of aggression chosen by one man. But it demands constant journalistic vigilance toward statements from both sides.

### The irreplaceable role of independent sources

It is precisely in this context that independent verification work becomes irreplaceable. Without **Meduza**'s analysis, without the **ISW**'s mapping assessments, without testimonies gathered directly from soldiers by Western correspondents, it would be impossible to separate propaganda from ground truth at Kostiantynivka.

This demand for verification must remain at the heart of all journalistic work on this war, precisely because both sides have powerful reasons to bend the truth to their own advantage.

*I'll say it without hesitation: I believe Ukraine is fighting for a just cause, but that never excuses me from checking its own announcements with the same rigor as Moscow's. Truth must never be sacrificed on the altar of a conviction, even the most legitimate one.*

## What Kostiantynivka reveals about Russia's political calendar

### Pressure to deliver victories before autumn

The Kremlin's insistence on proclaiming unconsummated victories at Kostiantynivka is partly explained by an internal political calendar. **Putin** needs tangible results to present to his public and his **military** apparatus before war fatigue, already perceptible in certain segments of Russian society, becomes a more serious political problem.

This time pressure could push Moscow toward announcements increasingly disconnected from ground reality in the months ahead, a phenomenon independent observers will need to watch with redoubled attention.

### Ukraine, meanwhile, is playing a different game

For **Kyiv**, every month of resistance at Kostiantynivka strengthens the argument that Western aid, properly calibrated and delivered on time, can actually stop the Russian advance. It's an argument **Zelensky** will keep making at every international summit, including the ones that follow **Ankara**.

This difference in political timelines between the two sides — one seeking a quick victory for domestic political reasons, the other seeking to demonstrate the viability of prolonged resistance — shapes much of the current diplomatic dynamic around this war.

*Putin is betting his domestic credibility on cities he only half controls. That's a dangerous wager for him, and the longer the **West** stands firm in its support for Ukraine, the more that bet will backfire.*

## The human dimension behind military maps

### Families who may never come back

Behind every mapping assessment by the **ISW**, behind every percentage of contested territorial control, lie shattered human lives. Kostiantynivka's residents who have fled in recent months join the hundreds of thousands of others displaced from **Bakhmut**, **Pokrovsk** and now **Sloviansk** and **Kramatorsk**, in an exodus that is silently redrawing the human map of the **Donbas**.

These families rarely take more than a suitcase and an increasingly fragile hope of one day returning. Many know, deep down, that their home may be nothing but a pile of rubble by the time they come back, if they ever do.

### Soldiers, a resource that doesn't renew indefinitely

On the **military** side, the same Ukrainian units have been fighting at Kostiantynivka for months without a full rotation, a human burden that silently accumulates behind every tactical victory communiqué. This attrition, if not offset by a steady influx of new recruits and Western equipment, constitutes over time a threat just as serious as any Russian **offensive**.

It is this human reality, more than any **military** map, that should guide Western decisions on the pace and volume of aid sent to Ukraine in the months ahead.

*I often think of these families carrying a suitcase while hoping to return. This war is also measured in uprooted lives, and that should weigh as heavily on our decisions as the lines drawn on a general staff's map.*

## What the West must learn from Kostiantynivka

### Ukrainian resistance is not automatic

Kostiantynivka shows that Ukrainian resistance, however remarkable, is not an automatic given that will sustain itself indefinitely without constant material support. Every **assault** repelled costs ammunition, every day of resistance wears down a little more of the human and material reserves of a country at war for over four years.

The **West** must understand that this resistance, which it rightly admires, depends directly on the speed and volume of its own support. Without that continuous support, even the most admirable tenacity eventually gives way to an adversary that, for its part, knows no apparent limit in sacrificing its own soldiers.

### The credibility test posed by every contested city

Every city in the **Donbas** that resists longer than expected constitutes a credibility test for the entire Western support architecture. If Kostiantynivka holds, it's partly thanks to past deliveries; if it falls, it will also be partly the consequence of accumulated delays in promised deliveries.

It is this shared responsibility, between the courage on the ground and the reliability of Western deliveries, that must shape any moral judgment about the outcome of this battle, whatever it may be in the coming months.

*I refuse to let the **West** off the hook easily if Kostiantynivka ever falls. The responsibility would then be shared, and our collective slowness would weigh just as heavily as any decision made in Moscow.*

## Conclusion: a city that resists every simple narrative

### Neither a Russian victory, nor total Ukrainian control

Kostiantynivka, at the end of this investigation, resists any simplification. It has neither fallen under total Russian control, as Moscow claims, nor is it entirely held by Ukraine, as some overly optimistic Western narratives might suggest. It is a grey-zone city, where every street, every building, every day brings its own fragmented truth, far from the triumphant communiqués of both sides.

This complexity is not an obstacle to the truth, it is the truth itself in this kind of prolonged urban warfare. Rejecting this complexity in favor of a simple narrative, in either direction, amounts to betraying the reality lived by the soldiers and the few civilians who remain on the ground.

### What history will remember of this summer of 2026

History may well remember that Kostiantynivka, like Pokrovsk before it, never fell in one piece despite crushing **military** pressure. It will also remember the contrast between the Kremlin's triumphant announcements and the reality documented by independent sources on both sides of the conflict.

What is at stake at Kostiantynivka goes beyond the **Donbas**: it is a truth test for an entire global information system confronted with the propaganda of an authoritarian regime, and a test of solidarity for a **West** that must choose between words and actions.

**By Maxime Marquette, columnist**

## Columnist's transparency note

### Editorial stance

I am not a journalist but a **columnist and analyst**. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies.

I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. **I claim analytical clarity**, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events.

### Method and sources

This text keeps the basic distinction between **verified facts and interpretive analysis**. The rule never changes: a factual claim is published only when a verifiable source supports it, and the sources this article actually used are listed under **Sources**, never here.

**Primary source families** used by the publication, when the story has them: official statements from governments and international institutions, public statements by political leaders, reports from intergovernmental organisations, dispatches from recognised international news agencies.

**Secondary source families**: specialised publications, internationally recognised news media, analyses from established research institutions, reports from industry organisations.

When an article cites statistical, economic or geopolitical data, it comes from the institutions that produce it (intergovernmental organisations, central banks, national statistics offices), and the exact institution is named under **Sources**.

### Nature of the analysis

The analyses, interpretations and perspectives in the analytical sections of this article are a **critical, contextual synthesis** based on the information available, the trends observed and the expert comments cited in the sources consulted.

My role is to interpret these facts, to set them in the context of today's geopolitical and economic dynamics, and to give them a coherent meaning within the larger story of the changes shaping our time. These analyses reflect expertise built through continuous observation of international affairs and an understanding of the strategic mechanisms that drive global actors.

This article describes a documented state of affairs on its publication date, not a prediction: later developments may shift its outlook. No update is promised in advance; when an article is corrected or completed, the change is dated in the text.

## Sources

### Primary sources

- [Meduza, analysis of the battle for Kostiantynivka — July 8, 2026](https://meduza.io/en/feature/2026/07/08/russia-says-kostiantynivka-has-fallen-kyiv-claims-it-still-holds-the-city-both-are-wrong)

- [Institute for the Study of War, Russian offensive campaign assessment — July 5, 2026](https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-5-2026/)

- [Ukrainska Pravda, 268 clashes across the front — July 9, 2026](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/07/09/8043170/)

- [Verified timeline of the Battle of Kostiantynivka](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kostiantynivka)

### Secondary sources

- [The New York Times, report on the Donetsk front — July 5, 2026](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/05/world/europe/ukraine-russia-donetsk-front.html)

- [BBC, testimonies from the front at Kostiantynivka — June 2026](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c9w2g0ewk95o)

- [RFE/RL, analysis of the Battle of Kostiantynivka — July 4, 2026](https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-donbas-war-kostyantynivka-/33795647.html)

- [Official declaration of the NATO Ankara summit — July 8, 2026](https://www.nato.int/en/about-us/official-texts-and-resources/official-texts/2026/07/08/the-ankara-summit-declaration)

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Source: Maxime Marquette, MadMax. When citing, name the author and link https://mad-max.co/en/article/investigation-kostiantynivka-the-city-putin-claims-to-hold-without-ever-holding