# Friedrich Merz, the Germany that pledges its security to the Balts

> A few days before the NATO summit in Ankara, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz hosted the leaders of the three Baltic states in

- Author: Maxime Marquette
- Publisher: MadMax (https://mad-max.co)
- Section: Profile
- Published: 2026-07-05
- Canonical URL: https://mad-max.co/en/article/friedrich-merz-l-allemagne-qui-promet-sa-securite-aux-baltes

## Introduction: a sentence worth a strategic commitment

### A meeting in Berlin ahead of the Ankara deadline

A few days before the **NATO** summit in **Ankara**, German Chancellor **Friedrich Merz** hosted the leaders of the three Baltic states in **Berlin**: Estonian Prime Minister **Kristen Michal**, Latvian President **Edgars Rinkēvičs**, and Lithuanian President **Gitanas Nausėda**. The phrase Merz used immediately echoed well beyond the meeting room: **Baltic security is also German security**.

This wasn't an improvised line. Merz explained that it echoed a commemorative plaque affixed to **Vilnius** city hall, which proclaims that Lithuania's security is our security, the defense of Vilnius is the defense of **Berlin**. It's a line the chancellor himself had spoken at the activation ceremony of the German **45th Panzer Brigade** in Lithuania, in May of the previous year.

### A man learning from his Baltic allies

**Friedrich Merz** acknowledged, with a humility rare among heads of government, that **Germany** was learning from its Baltic allies, who had understood far earlier the need to prepare concretely to defend their freedom, security, and prosperity. That admission stands in stark contrast to decades of German underinvestment in defense, an era Merz appears determined to close for good.

The threat, the chancellor insisted, is **not abstract: it is very real on NATO's eastern flank**. **Russia** constantly violates the Alliance's airspace, wages hybrid attacks in cyberspace, and has damaged **undersea cables** in the Baltic Sea. According to Merz, Moscow is currently testing NATO's unity and resolve, a reality that explains the urgency of this bilateral meeting ahead of the summit.

*It took severed cables and repeated airspace violations for Germany to publicly acknowledge what the Balts had known for years. Better late than never, but this awakening comes after decades of costly delay.*

## Baltic priorities for the Ankara summit

### Turning financial commitments into real capabilities

Latvian President **Edgars Rinkēvičs** summed up his top priority: the **5%** defense spending target agreed last year in **The Hague** must translate into concrete capabilities on the ground, not just budget figures. It isn't only about money, he insisted, but about buying the right equipment and strengthening the defense industry of every NATO member state.

This emphasis on the **quality of spending** rather than its volume alone reveals a concern shared by many eastern members of the Alliance: a generous **defense budget** is worthless if it doesn't translate into weapons systems actually delivered, **ammunition** actually stockpiled, and troops actually trained and equipped.

### Unity on Article 5 and continued support for Ukraine

The second imperative **Rinkēvičs** outlined concerns Alliance unity behind **Article 5** and all its collective commitments, while the third involves continued support for **Ukraine**. The Latvian president expressed hope that allies could reach common language to counter Russian and Belarusian hybrid threats and other **provocations**.

Any attack on the Baltic states would, according to Rinkēvičs, amount to a **direct confrontation** with all of NATO, a reminder that discussions about any single ally's **security** actually concern the security of the whole Alliance, a point internal debates sometimes tend to overlook.

*Rinkēvičs is right to remind everyone that collective security isn't a diplomatic abstraction: it's a principle that must translate concretely every time an ally, even the geographically smallest one, raises a legitimate concern about Russia.*

## Estonia and Lithuania: numbers that speak for themselves

### Kristen Michal and Estonia's record investment

Estonian Prime Minister **Kristen Michal** noted that his country already invests more than **5% of its GDP** in core defense, a level Poland and the other Baltic states also reach. Michal stressed the need for closer cooperation in defense industries and more joint procurement among European **allies**.

That, he explained, is how we close capability gaps faster. Michal also highlighted the role of the **German-Dutch corps**, which took tactical command of allied ground forces in **Estonia** and Latvia, as well as Germany's contribution to NATO's **Baltic Air Policing** mission.

### Nausėda and Lithuania's 7% of GDP target

Lithuanian President **Gitanas Nausėda** announced that his country is on track to devote nearly **7% of its GDP** to defense and security this year, far exceeding the commitment agreed at the **Hague summit**. Nausėda praised the permanent deployment of the German **45th Panzer Brigade**, whose full stationing in **Lithuania** is planned by the end of **2027**, as a concrete strengthening of his country's defense.

Asked about how German soldiers are perceived on the streets of **Vilnius**, Nausėda replied that they are more than welcome, calling it the best proof of solidarity and friendship between the two nations. A response that stands in sharp contrast to the historic tensions of the twentieth century between **Germany** and the Baltic states.

*Seeing a Lithuanian president warmly welcome German troops stationed on his soil says a great deal about how European reconciliation, built over decades of integration within NATO and the European Union, has transformed the continent's geopolitics.*

## Friedrich Merz's political journey to the chancellery

### A return to power after years in the wilderness

**Friedrich Merz**, a longtime figure in Germany's **CDU**, followed a political path marked by years away from power before reclaiming leadership of his party and then reaching the **chancellery**. His return came with a more assertive message about Germany's need to take on a more robust leadership role within Europe and NATO.

This stance contrasts with the traditional caution of postwar German foreign policy, long marked by reluctance to project significant military power. Merz appears determined to break with that historical restraint, at least in the specific context of the current **Russian threat**.

### A security doctrine taking shape gradually

Since taking office, **Merz** has multiplied concrete gestures toward NATO's eastern allies: permanent troop deployment in **Lithuania**, increased defense budget commitments, and now this symbolic meeting with the three Baltic leaders ahead of a major Atlantic Alliance summit.

This emerging security doctrine positions **Germany** as a **strategic pivot** for NATO's entire eastern flank, a role **Berlin** hadn't embraced with this much clarity since the end of the Cold War.

*A German chancellor who speaks openly about military deterrence and permanent deployments in the East marks a generational break with traditional German foreign policy. That's a shift worth applauding, not downplaying.*

## Germany's commitment on defense spending

### The 3.5% target reached ahead of schedule

**Merz** announced that **Germany** would reach the **3.5%** of GDP defense spending target agreed in The Hague as early as **2029**, well ahead of the deadline set by the original agreement. This announcement represents a major **budgetary commitment** for Europe's largest economy, whose recent history has long been marked by reluctance to significantly raise military spending.

The chancellor also pointed out that the Baltic states were contributing proportionally more than **Germany**, an honest acknowledgment of the efforts already made by these smaller countries that are, geographically, far more exposed to the direct **Russian threat** than German territory itself.

### Financial support for Ukraine, a long-standing commitment

Merz noted that the Baltic states had committed for years to devoting **0.25% of their GDP** to aid for **Ukraine**, calling the decision **exemplary**. This public recognition from the German chancellor illustrates how much importance he places on maintaining **cohesion** in Western support for **Kyiv**, beyond NATO's collective defense commitments alone.

**Germany**, as the European Union's largest economic contributor, carries a particular responsibility in sustaining this financial support for Ukraine, a responsibility Merz appears to be shouldering with remarkable consistency since taking power.

*Publicly acknowledging that small Baltic countries are doing proportionally more than Europe's leading economic power takes a rare kind of political honesty. Merz deserves credit for that transparency, even though it highlights a longstanding imbalance.*

## The nuclear question and the American umbrella

### A debate that finds its way into bilateral talks

The **American nuclear umbrella** was among the topics discussed between Merz and the Baltic leaders, a theme that carries particular weight amid European doubts about the long-term reliability of America's commitment to continental **defense**, especially under the **Trump** administration.

This discussion is part of a broader reflection on the future of European nuclear deterrence, with several capitals, including **Berlin** and Paris, exploring options that complement the American umbrella without wanting to fully detach from it, a delicate balance to maintain in today's geopolitical climate.

### Lithuania opens the door to nuclear weapons on its soil

President **Nausėda** revealed that an agreement among parties represented in the Lithuanian Parliament, reached at his own initiative, would begin lifting the constitutional ban on nuclear weapons and foreign military bases in the country. This shift would let **Lithuania** play a bigger role in NATO's nuclear **deterrence** against Russia.

Such a constitutional change, unthinkable just a few years ago, illustrates the scale of the strategic transformation the Baltic states have undergone since the start of the **war in Ukraine**, now ready to consider options once deemed too provocative toward **Moscow**.

*Lithuania seriously considering lifting its constitutional ban on nuclear weapons speaks volumes about the level of threat its leaders perceive. This is not a decision taken lightly by a small country historically cautious toward its Russian neighbor.*

## Merz and the question of Ukraine's EU membership

### The associate membership concept, an unprecedented proposal

**Merz** used the meeting to detail his proposal for **associate membership** for **Ukraine** in the European Union, which he called an extremely ambitious offer, never before proposed to any candidate country. This arrangement would bring Ukraine closer to the European Union starting now, without replacing full membership, which, in his own words, will still take time.

This proposal illustrates Germany's desire to maintain positive momentum in Ukraine's European path, even though the technical and political obstacles to full membership remain numerous, particularly regarding institutional reforms and anti-corruption efforts.

### Kristen Michal pushes for opening the remaining chapters

Prime Minister **Michal** stressed that a just and lasting peace also requires a clear path to the European Union for **Ukraine**, adding that Kyiv has long been ready. In his view, the European Union should open the remaining negotiating clusters for Ukraine, a step he frames not as a favor, but as being in the European Union's own strategic and economic interest.

This convergence of views between **Germany** and the Baltic states on the urgency of concretely advancing Ukraine's European path strengthens the coherence of the Western message just days before a NATO summit where this topic is also expected to feature prominently in discussions among allies.

*Framing Ukraine's EU membership as a Western strategic interest, rather than a mere generous favor, changes the nature of the debate. It's a more honest framing and, ultimately, a more persuasive one for winning over still-hesitant European public opinion.*

## Merz's stance toward Vladimir Putin

### A firm position on the conditions for peace

Asked about the prospects of a **ceasefire** or an end to the war along the current **front line**, **Merz** was unequivocal: such an outcome would only be possible if **Vladimir Putin** himself chose that path. The Russian president must end this war, it's entirely up to him to do so, he stated without ambiguity, clearly placing responsibility for the escalation and its resolution on the Kremlin's leader.

This rhetorical firmness comes with a commitment to closely involve the Baltic states in any effort to bring Putin to the **negotiating** table, implicitly recognizing that these countries, on the geographic front line against **Russia**, hold particular expertise and legitimacy on this issue.

### Continued support for American mediation efforts

Merz also stated that **Germany** would keep supporting American efforts to secure a lasting end to the war in Ukraine, a position that illustrates **Berlin's** determination to maintain close transatlantic coordination despite occasional tensions between the Trump administration and certain European allies on other foreign policy matters.

This coordination, however imperfect at times, remains essential to maintaining coherent pressure on Moscow rather than letting **Russia** exploit potential divisions between **Washington** and European capitals over strategy toward the ongoing war.

*Placing the responsibility for the war and its end squarely on Putin's shoulders, without ambiguity or false equivalence, is exactly the kind of moral and political clarity Western leaders must maintain in the face of aggression as blatant as what Ukraine has suffered.*

## What this meeting signals for the Ankara summit

### Prior coordination that strengthens the Western position

This bilateral meeting in **Berlin**, just days before the **NATO** summit in **Ankara**, illustrates a diplomatic working method Merz appears to favor: aligning positions with the **allies** most directly exposed to the **Russian threat** before entering broader negotiations with the full Atlantic Alliance membership.

This methodical approach improves the odds that **Germany** and the Baltic states arrive in Ankara with already largely aligned positions on key priorities: concrete defense spending, unity behind **Article 5**, continued support for Ukraine, and coordinated management of Russian and Belarusian hybrid threats.

### Merz wants a more European NATO to stay transatlantic

The chancellor summed up his vision for the summit in a dense phrase: **NATO** must become more European in order to remain transatlantic. This approach implicitly acknowledges that Europe must shoulder a growing share of the burden of its own **defense**, without calling into question the fundamental importance of the transatlantic bond with the United States.

This formula, which might seem paradoxical at first glance, actually captures the delicate balance Merz and his Baltic counterparts are trying to strike: a more autonomous, better-armed Europe, but one still firmly anchored in the **Atlantic Alliance** rather than tempted by a **strategic autonomy** that would isolate it from its American ally.

*A militarily stronger Europe isn't a threat to the transatlantic bond — quite the opposite, it's what will make that bond more durable and more balanced. Merz is right to carry this message with such clarity ahead of a summit this decisive for the Alliance's future.*

## The 45th Panzer Brigade, symbol of German military re-engagement

### A permanent deployment unmatched since the Cold War

The deployment of the German **45th Panzer Brigade** in **Lithuania** marks the first **commitment** of German combat troops stationed on a lasting basis abroad since the end of the Second World War, outside short-rotation NATO missions. Expected to reach full operational capacity by the end of **2027**, the brigade is set to number several thousand soldiers, with **tanks** and armored vehicles permanently stationed near the border with **Belarus** and the Russian exclave of **Kaliningrad**.

This major logistical and political choice illustrates **Berlin's** determination to move beyond mere declarations of solidarity and invest concretely, in personnel and equipment, in defending the Alliance's eastern flank. The budgetary and human cost of this commitment is considerable, but it sends a deterrence signal that's hard for **Moscow** to ignore.

### Military infrastructure being built under time pressure

Construction of the barracks, **ammunition** depots, and infrastructure needed to host this brigade is moving at an accelerated pace, in close coordination between German and Lithuanian authorities. Military officials from both countries have made repeated joint site visits to make sure deadlines are met despite the considerable logistical challenges such a deployment represents.

This race against the clock shows just how narrow Western general staffs perceive the preparation window against potential Russian aggression to be, preferring to build credible **deterrence** before any escalation rather than reacting after a crisis has already broken out on the ground.

*Seeing German tanks permanently stationed just kilometers from the Belarusian border would have been unthinkable a decade ago. This rapid normalization of German rearmament measures, better than any speech could, the scale of the strategic shift underway.*

## German-Baltic cooperation in the defense industry

### Joint industrial projects to close the gaps

Beyond the military deployment, **Germany** and the Baltic states are developing industrial cooperation projects in the defense sector, including joint **ammunition** production and local maintenance of military equipment. This approach aims to reduce dependence on long, vulnerable supply chains, an issue that has become central since the start of the war in Ukraine and the strain on Western ammunition stockpiles.

German **defense** companies, including **Rheinmetall**, are actively exploring partnerships with Baltic manufacturers to establish production capacity closer to potential conflict zones, thereby reducing resupply times in the event of a major crisis on the Alliance's **eastern flank**.

### A model that could extend to other eastern allies

This German-Baltic industrial cooperation model could, according to several defense analysts, serve as an example for similar partnerships between Western European countries with a solid industrial base and Eastern European countries directly exposed to the **Russian threat** but with more limited production capacity.

Such an expansion would strengthen the collective resilience of the **Atlantic Alliance** in a prolonged conflict, where the ability to maintain a steady flow of **ammunition** and equipment could prove just as decisive as the number of troops deployed on the ground itself.

*Western dependence on fragile supply chains was one of the most dangerous blind spots in the initial response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. These German-Baltic industrial partnerships are finally correcting a vulnerability identified far too late.*

## Russia's perception of German rearmament

### Moscow denounces a militarization it frames as threatening

The **Kremlin** has regularly denounced German rearmament and troop deployment in **Lithuania** as a provocation, echoing its usual rhetoric of framing Western defensive measures as disguised acts of aggression. This Russian narrative deliberately ignores context: it was Moscow's 2022 invasion of Ukraine that triggered this wave of European rearmament, not the reverse.

German and Baltic officials consistently reject this **narrative**, pointing out that the deployment of the **45th Panzer Brigade** takes place exclusively on the sovereign territory of a NATO member country, in full compliance with international law, unlike Russian aggression against a non-member neighboring country.

### A communications war running alongside the real war

This narrative battle between **Moscow** and Western capitals shows just how much the war in **Ukraine** is also being fought on the ground of information and public perception, where each side seeks to present its own actions as defensive and the adversary's as aggressive, making independent fact-checking all the more essential.

Faced with this war of **narratives**, the relative transparency of Western military decisions, generally announced publicly with precise timelines, contrasts with the usual opacity of Russian **troop** movements, an asymmetry worth highlighting in any serious comparative analysis.

*Claiming that German troops legally stationed on the soil of a NATO ally amount to a military invasion of a neighboring country is crude manipulation. That false equivalence deserves no indulgence from serious observers.*

## Reactions from other European capitals

### Warsaw and Paris welcome Germany's posture

Several European capitals, including **Warsaw** and **Paris**, have welcomed Germany's military re-engagement on the eastern flank, seeing it as an encouraging sign of **Berlin's** willingness to take on a leadership role more in line with its economic weight within the **European Union**. This French-German-Polish convergence strengthens the cohesion of the Western camp ahead of the Ankara summit.

Poland's president, notably, stressed in recent discussions with his counterparts the need for a visible **unity** within the Alliance against Russian and Belarusian attempts to test the collective resolve of NATO members, a message that directly aligns with the priorities expressed by the Baltic leaders during their meeting with Merz.

### Lingering concerns about the consistency of the commitment

Despite this generally positive reception, some European analysts temper their enthusiasm by recalling that **Germany** has, in the past, made ambitious defense commitments that weren't always fully honored on the announced timeline, particularly regarding the modernization of its own national army, the **Bundeswehr**.

This analytical caution takes nothing away from the symbolic weight of the **Berlin** meeting, but it's a reminder that the credibility of any **security** doctrine is measured over time, not just by the intensity of political announcements made at a given moment, however diplomatically significant they may be.

*The Bundeswehr's recent history, long underequipped despite repeated modernization announcements, justifies a degree of caution. Merz will need to turn his words into measurable results to finally dispel this legitimate skepticism.*

## Russian hybrid threats in the Baltic Sea

### Undersea cables severed again and again

The **Baltic Sea** has for several years become the scene of repeated incidents involving **undersea** telecommunications and energy cables cut or damaged, often attributed to vessels linked directly or indirectly to the Russian **shadow fleet** used to skirt Western oil sanctions. These incidents, difficult to attribute with absolute certainty, nonetheless fuel serious concerns among countries bordering the Baltic.

The Baltic states and **Germany** have stepped up their joint naval surveillance in this strategic zone, deploying more patrol vessels and aerial surveillance assets to detect and deter this kind of hybrid activity before it causes greater damage to European **critical infrastructure**.

### A maritime zone that has become a quiet but real front

This maritime dimension of the confrontation with **Russia** generally receives less media attention than the ground fighting in Ukraine, but it represents an equally real front in today's strategic competition, where every unresolved incident chips away a little more at **confidence** in the security of European energy and digital infrastructure.

The strengthened German-Baltic cooperation discussed at the **Berlin** meeting explicitly includes this maritime dimension, with both sides acknowledging the need for a coordinated response to hybrid tactics designed precisely to stay below the threshold of a conventional NATO military response.

*These repeated incidents in the Baltic Sea illustrate the insidious nature of hybrid warfare: serious enough to worry, ambiguous enough to avoid a direct response. The West must stop treating these provocations as mere isolated maritime accidents.*

*The Baltic Sea is no longer a simple, peaceful transit space: it has become a gray zone where a decisive part of the confrontation between Russia and the West is playing out, far from the spotlight. Ignoring this front means leaving an entire flank of European defense without a coherent response.*

## Conclusion: a chancellor embodying Germany's strategic awakening

### What this meeting reveals about the new German leadership

This meeting between **Friedrich Merz** and the Baltic leaders, just days before the **NATO** summit in **Ankara**, illustrates the scale of the shift in German strategic posture since the chancellor took office. Between concrete budgetary commitments, permanent military deployments, and unambiguous messages of **solidarity** toward the most exposed **allies**, Merz is building a security doctrine that breaks with decades of traditional German restraint.

### A credibility test that will play out over time

The true measure of this commitment will play out over time: beyond symbolic statements and bilateral meetings, it is Germany's ability to honor its budgetary commitments through **2029** and to sustain its permanent military presence in **Lithuania** that will determine whether this rhetoric of solidarity truly translates into credible **deterrence** against Russia over the long run.

**By Maxime Marquette, columnist**

## Columnist's transparency note

### Editorial stance

I am not a journalist but a **columnist and analyst**. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies.

I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. **I claim analytical clarity**, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events.

### Method and sources

This text keeps the basic distinction between **verified facts and interpretive analysis**. The rule never changes: a factual claim is published only when a verifiable source supports it, and the sources this article actually used are listed under **Sources**, never here.

**Primary source families** used by the publication, when the story has them: official statements from governments and international institutions, public statements by political leaders, reports from intergovernmental organisations, dispatches from recognised international news agencies.

**Secondary source families**: specialised publications, internationally recognised news media, analyses from established research institutions, reports from industry organisations.

When an article cites statistical, economic or geopolitical data, it comes from the institutions that produce it (intergovernmental organisations, central banks, national statistics offices), and the exact institution is named under **Sources**.

### Nature of the analysis

The analyses, interpretations and perspectives in the analytical sections of this article are a **critical, contextual synthesis** based on the information available, the trends observed and the expert comments cited in the sources consulted.

My role is to interpret these facts, to set them in the context of today's geopolitical and economic dynamics, and to give them a coherent meaning within the larger story of the changes shaping our time. These analyses reflect expertise built through continuous observation of international affairs and an understanding of the strategic mechanisms that drive global actors.

This article describes a documented state of affairs on its publication date, not a prediction: later developments may shift its outlook. No update is promised in advance; when an article is corrected or completed, the change is dated in the text.

## Sources

### Primary sources

- Euronews, Merz meets Baltic leaders before NATO summit — July 3, 2026

- Euromaidan Press, Erdogan tells Merz Turkey is working to restart Russia-Ukraine peace talks ahead of Ankara NATO summit — June 29, 2026

### Secondary sources

- Euronews, On NATO's eastern flank, how Lithuania is strengthening its defences — June 30, 2026

- Polskie Radio, Polish president urges NATO unity ahead of Ankara summit after B9 talks in Romania — 2026

- Ukraine's Ministry of Defense — 2026

- NATO, official documents on the Ankara summit — 2026

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Source: Maxime Marquette, MadMax. When citing, name the author and link https://mad-max.co/en/article/friedrich-merz-l-allemagne-qui-promet-sa-securite-aux-baltes