# Why Beijing still refuses to budge on Taiwan > Introduction: a red line that isn't moving - Author: Maxime Marquette - Publisher: MadMax (https://mad-max.co) - Section: Investigation - Published: 2026-07-03 - Canonical URL: https://mad-max.co/en/article/enquete-pourquoi-pekin-refuse-toujours-de-ceder-sur-taiwan ## Introduction: a red line that isn't moving ### A refusal repeated in early July **China** continues to firmly reject American demands over **arms** sales to **Taiwan**, a file that remains, according to the **South China Morning Post**'s coverage of **Xi Jinping**, the absolute red line of Sino-American relations. On July 1, **Reuters** reported that **Beijing** was urging **Washington** to "handle the Taiwan issue with the utmost caution." I'm investigating here what this persistent deadlock reveals, and the real stakes hidden behind this diplomatic rhetoric that has been repeated for years. ### An unambiguous speech from Xi Jinping On July 1, marking the 105th anniversary of the founding of the **Chinese Communist Party**, **Xi Jinping** reaffirmed the goal of "reunification" with **Taiwan**, vowing to "resolutely strike down Taiwanese separatist forces." This speech, less openly hostile toward the **West** than the one delivered five years earlier, nonetheless maintains total firmness on the Taiwan question. This rhetorical consistency, year after year, shows just how much **Taiwan** remains **Beijing**'s absolute strategic priority. ## The $14 billion contract left hanging ### An arms package still frozen According to statements reported by the **Associated Press**, a **$14 billion** American arms contract intended for **Taiwan** remains under review, several months after it was first announced. A Taiwanese diplomat noted that his country needs these American **weapons** to ensure its own defense against the growing Chinese threat. This prolonged delay fuels uncertainty in **Taipei** over the real reliability of American commitment, in a context where **Donald Trump** himself has described this file as a "bargaining chip" in his broader negotiations with **Beijing**. ### A precedent of $11.1 billion approved Last December, **Washington** approved an **$11.1 billion** arms deal for **Taiwan**, the largest in the history of military relations between the two parties. **China** responded by sanctioning **Lockheed Martin** and around twenty other American defense companies involved in these sales. This sequence of reciprocal sanctions illustrates the constant escalation between **Beijing** and **Washington** on this file, with each side seeking to make the other pay a concrete price for its military decisions. ## The Wang-Rubio call, a dialogue of the deaf ### What was actually discussed US Secretary of State **Marco Rubio** confirmed that the issue of arms sales to **Taiwan** "did not feature prominently" during the meeting between **Donald Trump** and **Xi Jinping** on May 14, a surprising statement given how prominent this file usually is in Sino-American tensions. This relative diplomatic discretion could signal either a calculated, temporary easing, or conversely a shared desire by both parties to avoid a public confrontation over a subject where positions remain totally irreconcilable. ### A diplomacy of strategic silence The relative silence surrounding **Taiwan** during this high-level meeting should not be interpreted as a retreat of the underlying tensions. It is more likely a tactical pause, with each side continuing in parallel to strengthen its respective military and diplomatic positions in the Indo-Pacific region. This diplomacy of calculated silence is a recurring feature of Sino-American relations on the most sensitive files, where public posturing often contrasts with the reality of internal tensions. ## Chinese sanctions against the defense industry ### A targeted economic response The sanctions imposed by **Beijing** against **Lockheed Martin** and around twenty other American defense companies directly target America's military industrial capacity to keep arming **Taiwan**. This strategy of targeted economic retaliation illustrates the growing sophistication of China's response to Western arms sales. These sanctions, though largely symbolic in the immediate term given how little business these companies do in **China**, send a clear political signal about **Beijing**'s determination to make anyone who arms **Taiwan** pay a price. ### A precedent for other manufacturers This punitive approach could extend to other Western companies involved in defense contracts with **Taiwan**, creating a potential deterrent effect across the entire Western defense industry, well beyond the American companies directly targeted so far. This economic dimension of the Sino-Taiwanese conflict deserves greater attention from Western governments, beyond the usual purely military considerations. ## China's military strategy around Taiwan ### Constant military pressure Beyond the diplomatic rhetoric, China's **People's Liberation Army** has considerably intensified its air and naval incursions around **Taiwan** in recent years, a constant military pressure designed to wear down Taiwanese resilience and test the response capabilities of the island and its allies. This gradual pressure, without crossing the threshold of open conflict, constitutes a deliberate strategy aimed at normalizing an increased Chinese military presence in the waters and airspace surrounding **Taiwan**. ### The risk of a miscalculation Western military analysts are particularly worried about the risk of an accidental incident spiraling into open confrontation, in a context where Chinese and Taiwanese forces now operate at increasingly close distances during these repeated incursions. This risk of miscalculation, combined with the determination **Xi Jinping** displayed in his July 1 speech, keeps permanent tension in the **Taiwan** Strait that could tip over at any moment. ## Taiwan, democracy's outpost against China ### A democratic model that unsettles Beijing The very existence of **Taiwan** as a functioning, prosperous democracy poses, for **Beijing**'s regime, a direct ideological threat that contradicts the official narrative claiming Western democratic values are incompatible with Chinese culture. This ideological dimension of the conflict partly explains Chinese intransigence on this file, well beyond the purely strategic or territorial considerations usually highlighted in conventional geopolitical analysis. ### The parallel with Ukraine Many Western analysts draw a direct parallel between the defense of **Taiwan** against **China** and that of **Ukraine** against **Vladimir Putin**'s **Russia**, two democracies threatened by authoritarian neighboring powers claiming a historical right over their territory. This parallel, far from purely rhetorical, underscores the strategic importance for the **West** of maintaining credible deterrence simultaneously on both fronts, or risk sending a signal of general weakness to authoritarian regimes worldwide. ## What Washington should do now ### Unblocking the pending contracts Many defense analysts believe **Washington** should quickly unblock the currently stalled **$14 billion** contract, rather than treating it as a mere bargaining chip in broader trade negotiations with **Beijing**, an approach that weakens the credibility of American commitment to its democratic partners. Unblocking it would send a clear signal of resolve, to both **Taipei** and **Beijing**, about the steadiness of American commitment in the face of growing Chinese pressure in the region. ### Strengthening coordination with regional allies Beyond arms sales alone, an effective American response to **China** would require strengthened coordination with other democracies in the Indo-Pacific region, notably **Japan** and **South Korea**, also directly threatened by Chinese regional expansionism. This broader coordination would send a far more powerful signal of collective deterrence than a strictly bilateral response between **Washington** and **Taipei** against pressure exerted by **Beijing**. ## The murky role of certain financial intermediaries ### Networks that are hard to trace Several analysts specializing in defense financing point to the existence of complex networks of financial intermediaries facilitating certain arms contracts between **Washington** and **Taipei**, an opacity partly designed to limit the direct exposure of American companies to the Chinese economic retaliation already seen against **Lockheed Martin**. This financial opacity, while understandable strategically, also complicates the work of journalists and researchers seeking to precisely document the real scale of American military support for **Taiwan**. ### A transparency the public needs Greater transparency around these financial mechanisms would, in my view, strengthen the democratic legitimacy of Western support for **Taiwan**, by allowing American and allied citizens to fully understand the scale of their commitment against **China**. This demand for transparency should not be sacrificed on the altar of diplomatic caution in the face of Chinese economic retaliation, however real it may be. ## Conclusion: a red line that will not weaken ### A structural, not situational, deadlock This investigation confirms that China's refusal to budge on arms sales to **Taiwan** is not a situational deadlock tied to a one-off negotiation, but a structural and permanent red line of **Beijing**'s regime, reaffirmed unequivocally by **Xi Jinping** himself in early July. No significant shift in this position appears likely in the short term, regardless of the diplomatic or economic pressure **Washington** applies. ### A file to watch very closely Facing this constant Chinese intransigence, Western vigilance must remain at its highest, both militarily and diplomatically, to prevent an isolated incident from spiraling into a major confrontation in the **Taiwan** Strait, with potentially catastrophic consequences for regional and global stability as a whole. This investigation will continue as new developments shed light on one of contemporary geopolitics' most sensitive files. **By Maxime Marquette, columnist** ## Columnist's transparency note ### Editorial stance I am not a journalist but a **columnist and analyst**. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies. I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. **I claim analytical clarity**, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events. ### Method and sources This text keeps the basic distinction between **verified facts and interpretive analysis**. The rule never changes: a factual claim is published only when a verifiable source supports it, and the sources this article actually used are listed under **Sources**, never here. **Primary source families** used by the publication, when the story has them: official statements from governments and international institutions, public statements by political leaders, reports from intergovernmental organisations, dispatches from recognised international news agencies. **Secondary source families**: specialised publications, internationally recognised news media, analyses from established research institutions, reports from industry organisations. When an article cites statistical, economic or geopolitical data, it comes from the institutions that produce it (intergovernmental organisations, central banks, national statistics offices), and the exact institution is named under **Sources**. ### Nature of the analysis The analyses, interpretations and perspectives in the analytical sections of this article are a **critical, contextual synthesis** based on the information available, the trends observed and the expert comments cited in the sources consulted. My role is to interpret these facts, to set them in the context of today's geopolitical and economic dynamics, and to give them a coherent meaning within the larger story of the changes shaping our time. These analyses reflect expertise built through continuous observation of international affairs and an understanding of the strategic mechanisms that drive global actors. This article describes a documented state of affairs on its publication date, not a prediction: later developments may shift its outlook. No update is promised in advance; when an article is corrected or completed, the change is dated in the text. ## Sources ### Primary sources - [South China Morning Post — coverage of Xi Jinping and Taiwan policy, 2026](https://www.scmp.com/topics/xi-jinping) - [Reuters — China urges US to handle Taiwan issue with utmost caution, July 1, 2026](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-urges-us-handle-taiwan-issue-with-utmost-caution-2026-07-01/) ### Secondary sources - [Associated Press (via WSLS) — Taiwan needs US weapons for self-defense as threat from China grows, June 18, 2026](https://www.wsls.com/news/world/2026/06/18/taiwan-needs-us-weapons-for-self-defense-as-threat-from-china-grows-diplomat-tells-ap/) - [Axios — coverage of Sino-American relations and Taiwan policy, 2026](https://www.axios.com/) - [Military Times — coverage of US arms sales to Taiwan, 2026](https://www.militarytimes.com/) - [WION News — coverage of Sino-American tensions over Taiwan, 2026](https://www.wionews.com/) --- Source: Maxime Marquette, MadMax. When citing, name the author and link https://mad-max.co/en/article/enquete-pourquoi-pekin-refuse-toujours-de-ceder-sur-taiwan