# INVESTIGATION: Belarus, Putin’s Secret Gas Station — 270,000 Tons Headed to Russia

> From January to May 2026, railway exports of Belarusian gasoline to Russia jumped nearly thirteen-fold year-on-year, reaching 270,000 tons. Diesel, for its

- Author: Maxime Marquette
- Publisher: MadMax (https://mad-max.co)
- Section: Investigation
- Published: 2026-06-22
- Canonical URL: https://mad-max.co/en/article/enquete-le-belarus-pompe-a-essence-secrete-de-poutine-270-000-tonnes-vers-la-rus-2

## Introduction: Minsk Serving Moscow, the War’s Best-Kept Secret

### A figure that says everything about Lukashenko’s complicity

From January to May 2026, railway exports of Belarusian gasoline to Russia jumped **nearly thirteen-fold** year-on-year, reaching **270,000 tons**. Diesel, for its part, tripled to exceed **179,000 tons**. These are the raw, official figures cited by Zelensky himself on June 20, 2026, in a public statement of rare precision. Behind these columns of numbers lies a reality that the West is only beginning to grasp: Alexander Lukashenko’s Belarus is no longer just a political satellite state of Moscow—it has become the **secret supplier** of Vladimir Putin’s war machine, at the very moment when Ukrainian drones are pulverizing Russian refineries one after another.

This investigation traces the precise mechanism by which **Minsk is urgently compensating for the destruction Kyiv has inflicted** on Russia’s oil infrastructure. Because understanding this flow means understanding why the war still drags on—and why Ukrainian strikes on refineries are one of the most effective strategies ever deployed against the Kremlin since February 24, 2022.

### Why this subject is exploding now

It’s no coincidence that this investigation is taking shape in June 2026. On June 16, a Ukrainian drone struck the **Moscow Refinery** in the Kapotnya district—9 miles from the Kremlin. On June 18, a second massive strike, with nearly 200 drones launched at the Russian capital, caused simultaneous fires at several units of the facility and forced the closure of six Moscow airports. The whole world saw the images: columns of black smoke rising above Moscow, which residents described as a **rain of oil** falling on their cars and clothes. The war has entered the imperial capital.

It is in this context of a growing energy crisis that the role of Belarus takes on a decisive strategic dimension. Because while Ukraine strikes, Belarus pumps. And it is exactly this paradox that this investigation intends to dissect, figure by figure, fact by fact.

*I have to admit: when I saw the images of Moscow on fire, with that oily smoke blanketing the sky of the Russian capital, I felt something I didn’t expect. Not joy—I’m not one to cheer for the suffering of ordinary civilians—but a cold astonishment at the surgical efficiency of the Ukrainian strategy. Then, almost immediately, the question that changes everything: what if Putin finds his fuel anyway, but through a route the West isn't looking at closely enough? That question led me straight to Minsk.*

## The two Belarusian refineries: cornerstones of military dependency

### Mozyr and Novopolotsk: the fire factories feeding the war

Belarus has two refineries, **Mozyr** and **Novopolotsk**, each with an annual capacity of **12 million tons**, or about 240,000 barrels per day. Together, their production usually hovers around **9 million tons per year**. Since the second half of 2025, these two facilities have begun processing **Russian oil under a tolling arrangement**—meaning the crude belongs to Moscow, but Minsk refines it before delivering the finished products to the Russian market or for export. A setup that looks like industrial subcontracting but is actually a **mechanism for Russia’s energy survival in wartime**.

Before the Western sanctions of 2020, Belarus produced about **3.2 million tons of gasoline per year**, with 1.3 million destined for the domestic market and 1.8 million for export. This exportable potential now represents a **strategic resource** that Moscow is urgently mobilizing. According to experts cited by Charter97, Russian Deputy Prime Minister **Alexander Novak** has even considered increasing deliveries from Belarus to **300,000 tons per month**—a figure that confirms the scale of the ambition and the dependence.

### A cooperation agreement serving the war since March 2021

The relationship between the two regimes was not born from the crisis of 2026. Since **March 2021**, Belarus has used Russian ports for the transshipment of its refined petroleum products, under a cooperation agreement signed between Moscow and Minsk. What was mundane about this agreement in peacetime became **a tool of war** once Ukrainian drones began reducing Russian refining capacities to ash. Reuters documented this mechanism as early as the fall of 2025, citing industrial sources describing the scaling up of Belarusian flows.

In January-May 2026, total transit exports of Belarusian petroleum products through Russian ports reached about **1.53 million tons**, or 2.5 times higher than in the same period of the previous year. A brutal acceleration that leaves no doubt about the systematic nature of this energy cooperation—and the fact that it is in no way accidental or improvised.

*What strikes me about this architecture is its predictability. When you look at the timeline—the 2021 agreement, the start of the tolling regime in 2025, the explosion of volumes in 2026—you realize that all of this was planned well before the first bombs fell on Russian refineries. Putin and Lukashenko built this emergency corridor in advance. It’s not a crisis reaction; it’s a bypass strategy that the West should have seen coming—and sanctioned—much earlier.*

## Gasoline x13: a figure that indicts Lukashenko

### Exploding volumes in direct response to Ukrainian strikes

The figure is official, confirmed by several independent sources, and cited by President Zelensky in person during his statement on June 20, 2026: between January and May 2026, rail exports of **Belarusian gasoline to Russia multiplied by 13** compared to the same period the previous year. In absolute terms, this represents **270,000 tons of gasoline**. Diesel tripled to reach **179,000 tons**. And in the month of May, Belarusian refineries also delivered **over 5,000 tons of aviation fuel** to the Russian market.

These figures, documented by **United24 Media** based on data from **The Moscow Times**, fit into a movement whose timing is telling. In September 2025, rail gasoline exports had already quadrupled in one month, to 49,000 tons, according to **Reuters**. By November 2025, they had reached their maximum monthly level since the start of the year at **96,000 tons**—twice as much as in October. The curve is exponential. And it perfectly mirrors the curve of destruction inflicted on Russian refineries by Ukrainian drones.

### Zelensky names Lukashenko, and it’s historic

In his statement on June 20, 2026, the Ukrainian president directly named Alexander Lukashenko as responsible: **« Today, Belarus is one of the main suppliers of the Russian army. It’s Lukashenko, it’s Belarus. »** This direct, almost accusatory wording marks an escalation in Kyiv's rhetoric toward Minsk. Zelensky also warned that any Belarusian company providing fuel to Russia for its war **contributes to dragging Belarus into the conflict**—and that Ukraine is taking this into account in its strategy.

The diplomatic significance of this speech is major. It confirms that Belarus is no longer treated as a neutral or even passive country in this conflict—it is now identified as an **active partner in the Russian war effort**. The logical question that follows: how far are Ukraine and its Western allies willing to go to cut off this energy corridor?

*When Zelensky says « It’s Lukashenko », he knows exactly what he’s doing. He’s publicly naming a culprit, setting a precedent, and preparing international opinion for a possible escalation. What I read in this statement is a geopolitical card carefully played on the table: if Belarus continues, it will be treated as a belligerent. This isn't an idle threat—it's a strategic equation the West would do well to take seriously before Kyiv is forced to apply it alone.*

## Why Russia urgently needed outside fuel

### Russian refining at its lowest level since 2009

To understand why Belarus has become indispensable, one must measure the scale of the damage inflicted by Ukraine on the Russian oil industry. According to the **Ukrainian General Staff**, long-range strikes against 16 Russian refineries have reduced Russia's overall refining capacity by **30 percent**. In April 2026, according to **Bloomberg**, Russian refinery output fell to its **lowest daily average since December 2009**. Russian gasoline production reached a **sixteen-year low**.

The figures are damning: in May 2026, Russian diesel dropped by **10 percent**, following an identical drop in April. Nearly all major refineries in central Russia had either stopped or reduced production by the end of May, according to Reuters. The refineries affected total **more than 30 percent** of the country's gasoline production. Russia, the world's leading crude oil exporter for decades, finds itself importing gasoline from a small neighbor that itself depends 100% on Russian crude to function. The irony would be comic if it weren't a war.

### Repeated strikes on the same facilities: the exhaustion tactic

Ukraine has refined its doctrine. It’s no longer just hitting a refinery once to temporarily stop production—it’s **hitting the same facilities multiple times in a row** to delay or prevent repairs. The **Ryazan** refinery and the **Saratov** refinery have each been hit **about fifteen times** since the start of the war. The **Tuapse** refinery was hit three times in April 2026, then twice in May. According to the ISW, these repeated attacks on the same targets constitute a new trend, described by analysts as a **systemic exhaustion approach**.

In 2025, Ukraine carried out **658 deep strikes**—nearly twice the 335 recorded between 2022 and 2024 combined. In 2026, the current pace puts the country on a trajectory of more than **800 deep strikes** in the year. This is a qualitative shift in scale, not just quantitative. According to the analysis cited by RFE/RL, Ukrainian strikes **« have become more consequential in 2026 not because they have already broken the Russian oil system, but because they are increasingly exhausting its capacity to remain adaptable under pressure »**.

*Here is a military doctrine that fascinates me intellectually as much as it worries me practically: systematic exhaustion. It’s not total destruction that is sought—it’s the accumulation of small degradations that eventually make the system incapable of repairing itself. It’s a war of engineering as much as missiles. And it’s precisely because this strategy is working that Belarus has become so crucial to Putin. It compensates where Ukraine has made him bleed.*

## Moscow under the smoke: the strikes that changed everything

### The Kapotnya refinery, 9 miles from the Kremlin

On June 16, 2026, Ukrainian drones struck the **Moscow Refinery** in the Kapotnya district—one of the country's most important facilities with a processing capacity of **11.6 million tons of oil per year**. The ELOU AVT-6 primary refining unit was damaged; two industrial sources told Reuters that the facility had to **halt operations**. The refinery normally supplies **over 38 percent** of fuel consumption in the Moscow region, including jet fuel for Domodedovo, Vnukovo, Sheremetyevo, and Zhukovsky airports.

On June 18, the second strike was even more massive. Nearly **200 drones** were launched at Moscow. Five simultaneous fires broke out at different units of the refinery. Six Moscow airports temporarily closed their runways. Capital residents described a **rain of oil** falling from the sky, covering cars in black soot. Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin confirmed the damage in a Telegram post. Putin, who had stated a few days earlier that Ukrainian strikes would be contained, was forced to publicly acknowledge that **the attacks are harming the Russian economy**.

### Tatarstan, Nizhnekamsk, Samara: the map of refineries out of commission

The campaign is not limited to Moscow. On the night of June 11 to 12, 2026, Ukrainian forces struck two refineries in the Republic of Tatarstan, including the **TANECO in Nizhnekamsk**, the largest refinery operated by Tatneft—Russia's fifth-largest oil company. The facility suspended operations. On June 16, Tatneft imposed national restrictions on fuel purchases at its many gas stations: the first major company to impose **nationwide purchase caps**. In the Samara region, the Kuibyshev refinery, operated by Rosneft, was hit on June 10 by a combined drone and missile attack. In total, according to **Bloomberg**, in May 2026 alone, Ukraine carried out at least **sixteen attacks on oil facilities**, targeting eight of the country's ten largest refineries.

Overall Russian refining output fell by **13 percent** in May, equivalent to some **700,000 barrels per day less** year-on-year. Russia had the reputation of an impregnable energy power. That reputation is collapsing live, on the surveillance cameras of Russian gas stations where drivers queue for hours for a fill-up limited to 50 liters—or 20 liters in occupied Crimea.

*There is something deeply symbolic in the fact that Moscow itself is now affected by the shortage. For four years, ordinary Russians watched the war on television in relative comfort, convinced that their territory was inviolable. The rain of oil on June 18 shattered that illusion—not just symbolically, but chemically, on the car bodies and clothes of millions of Moscovites. Putin told them the war would be short, clean, and victorious. It is long, dirty, and it now smells of fuel oil.*

## Shortages in Russia and occupied territories: the war comes home

### 53 Russian regions under fuel restrictions

According to the independent Russian media outlet **The Bell**, cited by **Ukrainska Pravda**, strict restrictions on fuel sales are in effect in **53 Russian regions** as well as temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories. In 18 Russian federal subjects, motorists are limited to **50 liters** or a single tank of fuel per transaction. In 11 other regions, severe shortages have been reported without any formal limits being imposed. Rosneft, Bashneft, and the Tyumen Oil Company have banned the sale of gasoline in jerry cans across Russia—an anti-hoarding measure revealing the state of panic among authorities.

The situation is particularly critical in **occupied Crimea**, where puppet governor Sergey Aksyonov imposed a **20 liters** limit per sale starting May 30. On May 31, his counterpart in Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhayev, acknowledged that gasoline had been **depleted in a few hours**. Two large oil companies in Crimea temporarily stopped selling coupons. Restrictions then spread to occupied Luhansk and occupied Kherson Oblast. For the first time since 2022, the material reality of the war is hitting Russians not through patriotic speeches, but through the lack of gasoline in their daily lives.

### The military effect: when tanks run out of diesel

The military implications of these shortages are direct and documented. The **motorcycles, ATVs, and light trucks** of the Russian forces run on gasoline—and these vehicles are used precisely to move men and equipment **closer to the front**. **Armored vehicles, Urals, and generators** run on diesel, which is also in a production slump. The ISW notes that the two Ukrainian campaigns—long-range strikes on refineries and mid-range strikes on logistics lines—create a **devastating synergy**: one reduces production, the other prevents distribution of what is produced. Together, they achieve far greater effects than each separately.

On the M-14 highway connecting Berdyansk and Mariupol to Rostov-on-Don, Ukrainian strikes have intensified considerably since May 2026, targeting notably **fuel tankers** in southern and eastern occupied Ukraine. Russian milbloggers themselves have attributed significant logistical disruptions throughout the territories under Russian occupation to these strikes. The Kremlin has discussed a potential **total ban on diesel exports** to secure domestic supply—a decision that, if taken, would be a further admission of the gravity of the situation.

*I want to be honest on one point: I’m not a military analyst, and I can’t predict with certainty the precise impact of these shortages on Russian offensive capacity in the short term. What I can say is this—when an oil empire starts rationing gasoline at 50 liters for its own citizens, something essential in its narrative of power is breaking. And Kyiv is the one holding the hammer.*

## Jet fuel: the forgotten dimension

### Over 5,000 tons of Belarusian kerosene for Russia in May

In the whirlwind of figures on gasoline and diesel, one data point is often overlooked: in May 2026, Belarusian refineries delivered **over 5,000 tons of Belarusian jet fuel** to the Russian market. This is the first documented evidence of a flow of Belarusian kerosene to Russia in this war context. And it comes as **Russia has banned its own exports of aviation fuel** since June 1, 2026—an unprecedented measure, decided upon to secure domestic supplies after repeated strikes on refineries producing kerosene.

The TANECO refinery in Nizhnekamsk, hit on June 12, was precisely one of the main producers of **military aviation fuel** in Russia. Its suspension of activity constitutes a direct impact on the Russian air force's ability to operate at full capacity. The fact that Belarus partially compensates for this deficit by delivering kerosene to the Russian market is not trivial: it reveals the true extent of Moscow's energy dependence on Minsk—which goes far beyond automobile gasoline to touch the heart of Russian air power.

### Russia bans kerosene exports, Moscow turns to Minsk

The ban on aviation fuel exports imposed by Moscow since June 2026 would have been unthinkable two years ago. Russia was then a net exporter of kerosene, a position of strength in global markets. Today, it must sacrifice its export revenue to feed its own planes—military and civilian. The fact that **six Moscow airports had to close temporarily** after the June 18 strike illustrates how far the chain of consequences can go: a strike on a refinery, a kerosene shortage, canceled flights, thousands of stranded passengers—and a catastrophic international image for a regime that claims to be in control.

In this picture, Belarusian kerosene represents a partial but precious lifebuoy for Putin. The problem is that this lifebuoy has a physical limit: the Mozyr and Novopolotsk refineries can only produce what their capacities allow. And **beyond a certain threshold, no amount of Belarusian fuel will compensate for the loss of 30 percent of Russia's national refining capacity**.

*Kerosene is the fuel of sovereignty in a very concrete sense. A state without kerosene cannot fly its bombers, or its airliners, or its combat helicopters. The fact that Russia—which presents itself as an essential great power—is forced to import aviation fuel from Belarus says everything about the true state of that great power. It’s not trivial. It’s a structural shift that historians might date to this month of June 2026.*

## Transit through Russian ports: 1.53 million tons in five months

### Murmansk and Astrakhan, new arteries of the war economy

Beyond direct deliveries to the Russian domestic market, Belarus plays a considerable role in exports of petroleum products transiting through Russian ports. In May 2026 alone, rail shipments of Belarusian gasoline destined for export through Russian ports reached **about 165,000 tons**, up **nearly 30 percent** in daily terms compared to April. Of this volume, about **34,000 tons** were transported via the Arctic port of **Murmansk**, the rest via **Astrakhan** on the Caspian.

Over the entire January-May 2026 period, transit exports of Belarusian petroleum products through Russian ports totaled about **1.53 million tons**, or **2.5 times more** than in the same period of 2025. These flows do not directly serve the Russian domestic market—they generate foreign currency revenue for both regimes. For Lukashenko, it is a precious source of income in a context of international isolation and Western sanctions. For Putin, it is a demonstration that the **Russian export system remains partially operational**, despite Ukrainian strikes on port terminals.

### The port of Ust-Luga, victim of Ukrainian strikes

But all is not stable in this transit system. The port of **Ust-Luga**, on the Gulf of Finland, which previously constituted a major export axis for Belarusian petroleum products, received **no deliveries in May 2026**. The reasons are directly linked to the Ukrainian campaign: strikes on storage infrastructure and loading equipment at the port destroyed about **one third** of the tanks in its oil farm—a total capacity of 960,000 cubic meters of petroleum products. This is a concrete illustration of how Ukrainian strikes are not limited to refineries but attack the entire Russian energy logistics chain.

The **Lazarevo** oil pumping station, in the Kirov region, was also hit on May 31, 2026. This strategic facility channels oil from Western Siberia to central Russia and export ports, notably **Primorsk** on the Baltic. According to Militarnyi, **two main pipelines** pass through this site: Surgut-Polotsk and Kholmogory-Klin. A strike on this infrastructure can interrupt not only Russian exports but also crude deliveries to Belarusian refineries—a strategic vulnerability that Kyiv is clearly starting to exploit.

*This is what few people have understood about the Ukrainian strategy: it doesn’t just target production, it targets distribution. If the oil cannot be pumped, refined, transported, and exported, it doesn’t matter if Russia still has it in the ground. It’s a war over flows, not just over reserves. And Kyiv, with homemade drones facing one of the world's largest armies, is winning that war—one pipeline, one port, one refinery at a time.*

## Belarus’s total dependence on Russian crude: a deadly paradox

### Belarus was refining Russian crude to sell it against Russia

There is a chilling irony in this situation that few observers have highlighted: Belarus, which exports gasoline to Russia, imports **100 percent of its crude oil from Russia**. Belarus imports about **18 million tons of Russian crude** each year, in addition to all of its natural gas and nuclear fuel. This absolute dependence on Moscow costs Minsk between **$6 billion and $8 billion per year**, or 15 to 20 percent of its total imports, according to the Warwick University Institute for Global Sustainable Development. In other words: Lukashenko buys crude from Putin, refines it, then sells the refined gasoline back to him. A closed circuit that looks less like trade and more like servitude.

This economic architecture explains why Belarus cannot indefinitely increase its exports to Russia. Its total gasoline production is estimated at **3 to 4 million tons per year**, of which 2 million are consumed in the Belarusian domestic market. The exportable margin is therefore structurally limited—and every extra ton sent to Russia is a ton taken either from the Belarusian market or from profitable exports to other international markets. The Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service noted as early as August 2025 that delivering gasoline to Russia was **economically unfavorable for Belarus**: Russian prices were below $1,000 per ton, compared to $1,300 to $1,900 on international or Asian markets.

### Why Lukashenko obeys anyway

If this transaction is bad for Belarus, why does Lukashenko accept it? The answer is simple, and it says everything about the nature of bilateral relations: because he has no choice. According to studies by the **International Strategic Action Network for Security**, Russia effectively controls **about 90 percent of Belarusian exports** and **80 percent of imports**, taking into account logistical, transport, and energy mechanisms. In this vice, Minsk can perhaps play a small margin of negotiation at the edges—as shown by episodes of partial restriction of deliveries in the fall of 2025—but ultimately, **Lukashenko is a prisoner of the system he helped build**. He fuels Putin's war because Putin dictates his terms, and because his political survival has depended on Moscow's support since the 2020 crackdown.

The Forum for Research Policy Briefs summarized in April 2026 that, without European support, a total break from the Russian energy system would cost Belarus a loss of **3 to 4 percent of its GDP** in the long term. This is not catastrophic in itself—but for an illegitimate regime that fears any economic instability, it is a risk Lukashenko refuses to take. The result: the Minsk regime finds itself objectively on the side of the aggressors.

*I feel no particular compassion for Lukashenko, but I must be intellectually honest: he is partly trapped in an architecture he didn’t entirely choose—or rather, that he chose in 2020 when he decided to repress his people with Russian help rather than negotiate a transition. That choice, in 2020, chained him to Moscow for years. It could have been different. He preferred tyranny to reform, and now he’s paying that price. The problem is that it’s the Ukrainians—and his own citizens in exile—who are also paying, in his place.*

## Russian gas stations as a war barometer

### Long lines, banned jerry cans, ration coupons

Sometimes you have to look at the most banal images to understand the scale of a crisis. Russian gas stations became the **unintentional thermometers** of the effectiveness of the Ukrainian strategy in June 2026. Lines of cars stretch for hundreds of meters in the Volga regions. At Tatneft stations, sign in hand, cashiers inform customers: maximum 20 liters. Some drivers visit several stations before finding a possible fill-up. Women testify anonymously to RFE/RL that they are afraid of running out of gas to get home after waiting in line. This is the war coming home, in its most domestic form: **a fuel gauge that goes down without anyone wanting to see it go up**.

The independent Russian media outlet **Astra** reported on June 1 that two large oil companies in occupied Crimea had temporarily stopped selling gasoline coupons. This information, published in Russia by a medium under permanent pressure from the Kremlin, illustrates the tension between reality on the ground and the official narrative. Vladimir Putin himself, during a press conference, acknowledged that Ukrainian strikes **are harming the Russian economy**—before adding, true to his habit, that **« everything is quickly recovering »**. The lines at the pumps tell another story.

### Moscow and Saint Petersburg join the list of restricted zones

The strongest political symbol of this crisis is perhaps this: **Moscow and Saint Petersburg** themselves have begun imposing restrictions on gasoline sales. In these two metropolises that embody the image of power the Kremlin attempts to project to the world, lines are lengthening and limitation signs are appearing. The Tatneft station chain limits its customers to 20 liters of gasoline and 40 liters of diesel. ISW notes that **Vladimir Putin's ratings are down** for several months, and the Kremlin is particularly attentive to the **internal political image** these shortages project. The war was always presented to Russians as a clean operation, conducted far from home. It is now visible through the black smoke above the Moscow Ring Road.

In this context of internal crisis, every ton of gasoline imported from Belarus has a political value that exceeds its simple market value. Lukashenko is not just providing fuel—he is providing Putin with a **temporary cushion of social stability**, a breathing space that allows him to delay the inevitable confrontation with the consequences of his own war. This is the true price of Belarusian complicity.

*Something in me resists the idea that fuel shortages in Moscow will bring down Putin. History has taught us that authoritarian regimes survive much worse conditions when fear is deep enough. But what these lines at the pump do is something more subtle and more lasting: they plant a doubt. And doubt, in a regime built on the certainty of an upcoming victory, is a more corrosive weapon than any bomb.*

## Western sanctions and the Belarusian corridor: a geopolitical blind spot

### What sanctions don’t cover yet

Belarusian fuel exports to Russia are not, in themselves, directly targeted by current Western sanctions. This is a **blind spot** that this investigation must clearly name. Sanctions against Belarus, imposed since 2021-2022 by the European Union, the United States, and the United Kingdom, mainly target export industries such as potash, chemicals, and some Belarusian petroleum products to Western markets. But the intra-CIS flow, from Minsk to Moscow, **falls under no direct restriction** of the current sanctions regime.

This gap is known to Western governments—and analysts have been pointing it out for months. Ukraine has now taken it to the highest political level with Zelensky's statements on June 20. The question facing the West is simple in its statement, complex in its execution: is it possible to sanction Belarus's energy transfers to Russia without triggering a humanitarian crisis in Minsk, without further fragmenting the allied consensus, and without creating new opportunities for circumvention via third countries? There is no easy answer. But not asking the question is a form of passive complicity.

### What the West can still do—and why it delays

Several avenues have been raised in expert circles: extending secondary sanctions to cover Belarusian companies delivering fuel to Russia; increased pressure on banks that finance these transactions; conditionality of discussions on a future normalization with Minsk on a cessation of these deliveries. For now, these avenues remain theoretical. The Forum for Research Policy Briefs noted in April 2026 that Belarus could break its energy dependence on Russia **if the European Union brought sufficient economic support** to this transition—a bold idea but difficult to implement in the face of a regime that still violently represses its domestic opposition.

What is certain is that **the status quo is a political decision**. Every week that passes without sanctioning this energy corridor is one more week during which 270,000 tons of Belarusian gasoline compensate for the destruction inflicted by Ukrainian drones on Putin's refineries. The West must decide if it considers that its support for Ukraine includes closing this tap—or if it will continue to look away while Minsk fuels the war.

*I recognize a certain frustration in this chapter that I must fully own. Because the problem with sanctions is their slowness relative to the urgency on the ground. While expert committees draft memorandums on threshold conditionality, Belarusian tankers are crossing the border. The bureaucracy of the democratic West is one of its great strengths—and, in certain circumstances, one of its greatest handicaps against regimes that don’t need to convince a Parliament to act.*

## Economic war as seen from Kyiv: a doctrine bearing fruit

### Zelensky: « Russia, an oil-exporting country, is importing gasoline »

As early as October 2025, Zelensky had formulated what must be called a historic observation: **« Russia, the gas station country, isn't selling gasoline—it’s importing it. »** This phrase, pronounced after strikes on Russian logistical and oil complexes, summarizes the Ukrainian doctrine of economic war. It is not just a military victory that Kyiv seeks to obtain on the battlefield—it is a **demonstration of strategic futility** addressed to hesitant Western partners, to international opinion, and to the Russians themselves. A country that cannot provide gasoline to its own citizens is a country whose claim to great power status is chimerically weakened.

Zelensky's statement on June 20, 2026, citing specifically the figures of x13 for gasoline and x3 for Belarusian diesel, is part of this same logic: documenting Moscow's dependence publicly, naming the accomplices, and exerting indirect political pressure on allies so that they complete the military strategy with economic levers. Zelensky is an outstanding communicator, but he is also a strategist. These figures are not published by chance—they are published to produce an effect.

### Russian industrial losses linked to drone strikes: $13 billion in 2025

Industrial losses inflicted on Russia by Ukrainian drone strikes in 2025 exceed **13 billion dollars**, according to United24 Media citing Bloomberg data. This colossal figure, comparable to the annual military budget of some NATO member states, reveals the real scale of the economic damage inflicted by Ukraine. It must be put into perspective: Russia spends hundreds of billions of rubles each year to finance its war. But an increasing part of this budget must now be devoted to **repairing what Ukrainian drones have destroyed**—refineries, terminals, depots, pipelines, ports. It is a friction cost that accumulates, slows down, and erodes.

The IEA estimated in October 2025 that Ukrainian strikes would **suppress Russian refining rates until at least mid-2026**, with pressure on processing capacities on the order of **500,000 barrels per day**. We are in mid-2026, and the IEA's forecasts seem to have been below reality: Russian refining output has fallen to its lowest in sixteen years. This is no longer an analyst projection—it is a documented fact that manifests in queues at the pumps across the entire Russian territory.

*$13 billion in industrial losses for Russia in 2025—that’s a figure I had to reread several times to really absorb. Because that number says something fundamental about the asymmetry of this war: Ukraine, with drones that cost a few thousand dollars each, is inflicting billions in destruction on Moscow. It’s likely the most strategically effective thing Kyiv has done since the start of the full-scale conflict. And it’s almost unthinkable that the West didn't fund it much more massively, much earlier.*

## What summer 2026 holds: a structural, not cyclical, crisis

### Seasonal demand worsens an already critical shortage

The Russian fuel crisis observed in June 2026 is not only the result of Ukrainian strikes—it is amplified by the **seasonal increase in summer demand**. In Russia as in Europe, summer is synonymous with travel, agriculture, and increased fuel consumption. This seasonality hits an already weakened refining infrastructure, creating a particularly formidable scissor effect. The ISW notes that Russia will **« likely continue to suffer from fuel shortages throughout the summer »** due to the combination of seasonal demand and reduced refining capacity.

In this context, Belarusian fuel—even at its record delivery levels—can only **buffer partially** the deficit. As noted by energy expert Sergey Vakulenko, cited by IntelliNews in May 2026: **« The volumes remain low compared to Russian daily consumption of over 100,000 tons. It’s not yet a supply crisis, but it’s a signal of the tension on the system. »** This signal has become much more strident since then. The Russian summer of 2026 is shaping up to be a season of energy crisis management, with all the internal political implications that entails for an already weakened regime.

### A precedent for the next phase of the war

What is playing out in June 2026 goes beyond the current situation. It is a **strategic precedent** that redefines the parameters of the war. For the first time, Russia—which presented itself as an impregnable energy fortress—is forced to publicly admit its dependence on fuel imports, including from its own Belarusian satellite. The image of the great oil power capable of holding out indefinitely is no longer tenable. And Putin knows it, as evidenced by his public recognition that Ukrainian strikes are harming his economy.

For Ukraine, the lesson is clear: continue, intensify, diversify targets. For the West, the lesson should be just as clear: **accompany this strategy by economic and diplomatic tools** capable of closing the loopholes—starting with the Belarusian corridor. History will record that summer 2026 was the moment when the world understood that Russia was not invulnerable in energy terms. The question is whether the West will have the lucidity and courage to exploit this window of opportunity, or if it will let Putin find new bypasses before the pressure becomes unbearable.

*I will end this chapter with a personal conviction that the facts have forced upon me throughout this investigation: the war against Putin won’t be won only on the front lines of Donbas or in the trenches of Zaporizhzhia. It will be won—or lost—in the pipelines, refineries, ports, and energy deals that the West chooses, or refuses, to interrupt. Belarus is currently the primary energy survival corridor for Putin’s regime. Letting it operate freely is choosing to prolong this war. It is as simple, and as grave, as that.*

## Conclusion: close the valve or accept complicity

### Summary of this investigation in five findings

This investigation has established five findings that the facts make difficult to dispute. First finding: Belarus became in 2026 the **main emergency fuel supplier for Russia at war**, with gasoline exports multiplied by 13 in five months—270,000 tons—and diesel tripled to 179,000 tons. Second finding: this surge is a **direct and documented response** to the Ukrainian strike campaign on Russian refineries, which reduced national refining capacity by 30 percent and brought production to its lowest level in sixteen years. Third finding: Lukashenko knowingly participates in this war effort, as Zelensky explicitly stated on June 20, 2026, making the Minsk regime a **functional belligerent** even without deploying soldiers.

Fourth finding: current Western sanctions contain a **Belarusian blind spot** that neither the EU nor the US has yet filled, allowing an energy corridor to operate freely that extends Russian resistance capacity. Fifth and final finding: the Ukrainian strategy of economic war is bearing fruit—13 billion dollars in Russian industrial losses in 2025, shortages in 53 regions, Moscow under smoke—but it will be incomplete as long as Belarus remains outside any serious pressure. **Ukraine strikes. Minsk compensates. The West watches.** This equation must change.

### The question the West can no longer evade

The logic of this investigation leads to only one final question: how far is the West willing to go to end this war? Supporting Ukraine militarily while letting Belarus freely fuel the Russian war machine is pressing the accelerator and the brake at the same time. This is not a coherent policy—it is a contradiction that costs Ukrainian lives. **Zelensky has named the problem. The numbers have named the problem.** It remains for the West to decide if its solidarity with Ukraine is deep enough to draw the practical consequences.

Modern war history rarely remembers the names of bureaucrats who refused to act. It remembers the names of leaders who chose clarity over comfort. In 2026, at a time when Moscow burns above its own refineries and when Russian drivers wait for their 20 liters of gasoline under the surveillance camera of a Tatneft station, the West still has a choice. May this choice be made with lucidity, with courage, and with the sharp awareness that **every ton of Belarusian fuel that crosses the Russian border lengthens this war by one more day**.

**By Maxime Marquette, columnist**

## Columnist's transparency note

### Editorial stance

I am not a journalist but a **columnist and analyst**. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies.

I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. **I claim analytical clarity**, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events.

### Method and sources

This text keeps the basic distinction between **verified facts and interpretive analysis**. The rule never changes: a factual claim is published only when a verifiable source supports it, and the sources this article actually used are listed under **Sources**, never here.

**Primary source families** used by the publication, when the story has them: official statements from governments and international institutions, public statements by political leaders, reports from intergovernmental organisations, dispatches from recognised international news agencies.

**Secondary source families**: specialised publications, internationally recognised news media, analyses from established research institutions, reports from industry organisations.

When an article cites statistical, economic or geopolitical data, it comes from the institutions that produce it (intergovernmental organisations, central banks, national statistics offices), and the exact institution is named under **Sources**.

### Nature of the analysis

The analyses, interpretations and perspectives in the analytical sections of this article are a **critical, contextual synthesis** based on the information available, the trends observed and the expert comments cited in the sources consulted.

My role is to interpret these facts, to set them in the context of today's geopolitical and economic dynamics, and to give them a coherent meaning within the larger story of the changes shaping our time. These analyses reflect expertise built through continuous observation of international affairs and an understanding of the strategic mechanisms that drive global actors.

This article describes a documented state of affairs on its publication date, not a prediction: later developments may shift its outlook. No update is promised in advance; when an article is corrected or completed, the change is dated in the text.

## Sources

### Primary sources

- [Ukrinform — Zelensky: Belarus has time to dismantle equipment that helps Russia, x13 figures for gasoline — June 20, 2026](https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4135965-zelensky-belarus-has-time-to-dismantle-equipment-that-helps-russia.html)

- [United24 Media — Russia is turning Belarus into its personal gas station and Ukraine is the reason — June 10, 2026](https://united24media.com/world/russia-is-turning-belarus-into-its-personal-gas-station-and-ukraine-is-the-reason-19700)

- [Ukrainska Pravda — Fuel shortages spread across Russia and occupied territories — June 17, 2026](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/06/17/8039696/)

### Secondary sources

- [ISW — Gasoline shortages in occupied Ukraine show the synergy of Ukraine’s long-range and mid-range strike campaigns — June 4, 2026](https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/gasoline-shortages-in-occupied-ukraine-show-the-synergy-of-ukraines-long-range-and-mid-range-strike-campaigns/)

- [US News / Reuters — Moscow oil refinery damaged in Ukrainian drone attack, mayor says — June 16, 2026](https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-06-16/moscow-oil-refinery-damaged-in-ukrainian-drone-attack-mayor-says)

- [Charter97 — Lukashenko’s gasoline deliveries to Russia revealed: 224,400 tons in Jan-Nov 2025 — December 9, 2025](https://charter97.org/en/news/2025/12/9/665991/)

- [Militarnyi — Zelensky: if Belarus doesn’t want to be involved in the war, it must remove Russian relay stations — June 20, 2026](https://militarnyi.com/en/news/zelensky-belarus-must-remove-relay-stations/)

- [Reuters — Belarus ramps up fuel exports to gasoline-thirsty Russia — October 7, 2025](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/belarus-ramps-up-fuel-exports-gasoline-thirsty-russia-2025-10-07/)

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Source: Maxime Marquette, MadMax. When citing, name the author and link https://mad-max.co/en/article/enquete-le-belarus-pompe-a-essence-secrete-de-poutine-270-000-tonnes-vers-la-rus-2