# INVESTIGATION: Hormuz, the naval powers reclaim their destiny

> The Strait of Hormuz, that maritime choke point barely 33 kilometers wide at its narrowest, concentrates nearly 20% of the world's oil within its passage. Since the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran plunged this corridor into chaos in early 2026, thousands of commercial vessels have been sitting idle in Gulf waters, paralyzing the global economy. This is not a cri

- Author: Maxime Marquette
- Publisher: MadMax (https://mad-max.co)
- Section: Investigation
- Published: 2026-06-27
- Canonical URL: https://mad-max.co/en/article/enquete-hormuz-les-puissances-navales-reprennent-leur-destin-en-main

## Introduction: The sea as stage for rediscovered sovereignty

### One strait, a world on hold

The **Strait of Hormuz**, that maritime choke point barely **33 kilometers** wide at its narrowest, concentrates nearly **20% of the world's oil** within its passage. Since the war between the **United States, Israel, and Iran** plunged this corridor into chaos in early **2026**, thousands of commercial vessels have been sitting idle in Gulf waters, paralyzing the global economy. This is not a crisis like any other. It is the naval equivalent of a global cardiac arrest.

The **E5 Berlin Summit** of **June 24, 2026**, bringing together the leaders of **France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and the United Kingdom** — with the **NATO** Secretary General joining remotely from Washington — marked a decisive turning point. The Five reaffirmed their commitment to participating in the **Franco-British Multinational Military Mission** as soon as conditions allow. Concretely: a naval operation of a scale not seen since the Gulf War, led not by Washington, but by **Paris and London**.

### Europe takes the helm

What is at stake here goes beyond naval logistics. This is a test of strategic identity for **Europe**. For decades, Europeans delegated their maritime security to the **US Navy**. The Iran war, combined with President **Donald Trump**'s openly displayed disinterest in multilateral commitments, has brutally ended that comfortable dependency. French President **Emmanuel Macron** and British Prime Minister **Keir Starmer**, as early as **April 17, 2026**, convened **51 nations** in Paris to lay the foundations of this mission.

The Berlin joint declaration specifies that the mission will aim to "reassure the maritime industry and reopen the strait, particularly through mine clearance verification." This is not diplomatic language. It is a military operational brief. The **HMS Dragon**, a British air defense destroyer, is already en route. The nuclear carrier **Charles de Gaulle** is pre-positioned in the Arabian Sea. And **38 nations** signed their political support for the initiative at the Defense Ministers' meeting of **May 12, 2026**.

*I have to be honest: the speed at which Paris and London mobilized a coalition of 40 nations surprised me. For years, Europeans were accused of talking without acting. This time, they built a force even before the war was over. This may be the first real proof that post-Trump Europe is finally learning to govern itself.*

## The US-Iran memorandum: a fragile window

### Trump, reluctant mediator

The **US-Iran memorandum of understanding** — hailed by the Berlin summit as a "window of opportunity to restore regional stability" — provides for the reopening of the strait within **30 days**, with an additional **60 days** to negotiate a broader agreement. It was President **Trump**, with his blunt methods and ill-timed phone calls, who wrested this result. Maximum irony: the necessary evil delivered the necessary good.

But the window is fragile. **Iran** agreed to clear its mines within a **30-day** timeframe. That schedule is tight. Experts point out that demining such a strategically vital strait can take **weeks after any agreement** — each maritime corridor must be swept before insurers and shipowners are willing to resume navigation. That is precisely where the Franco-British mission enters the picture: verify, secure, convince.

### Trump benevolent but disengaged

On June 16, at the **G7 Summit in Évian**, **Trump** told **Macron** he did not think he needed "a lot of help" because the deal, in his view, guaranteed the strait would open. But he added: "Having one or two ships here from some countries wouldn't be a bad idea." In Trumpian language, that is a blessing. **Washington**, through its **Project Freedom** operation, began escorting merchant vessels in the Gulf as early as **May 4**, but without assuming the demining mission that only a coalition can carry out.

The division of labor is therefore clear: **the Americans fought the war**, **the Europeans will build the maritime peace**. This unprecedented sharing of responsibilities fundamentally reshapes the transatlantic security architecture.

*Trump said "I don't think I need a lot of help." Free translation: do what you like, as long as it works. That is exactly the kind of autonomy space Europe needed. The Trumpian paradox continues: the more he disengages, the more Europeans step up to the plate.*

## The Franco-British military machine

### Assets on the ground

France pre-positioned the **Charles de Gaulle**, its frigates, and amphibious vessels in the Arabian Sea since **mid-May 2026**. The United Kingdom deployed the **HMS Dragon**, a Type 45 destroyer, along with autonomous mine-hunting systems. The **Royal Air Force** has **Typhoon** jets ready for aerial patrol missions over the strait. Both countries also provided anti-drone capabilities — essential in an environment where Iran has demonstrated its mastery of surface and underwater drones.

On the allied side, **Italy** committed two MLU-class mine hunters — the **Rimini** and the **Crotone**. **Germany** repositioned its mine hunter **Fulda** from the Baltic Sea to the Mediterranean. **Belgium** diverted its mine hunter **Primula** toward the Eastern Mediterranean. **Australia** offered its **E-7A Wedgetail** surveillance aircraft. This is a variable-geometry coalition, but one with real and complementary capabilities.

### The planning conference and its limits

Military planners from more than **30 nations** gathered at **Northwood**, the British permanent joint headquarters, on **April 22 and 23, 2026**, to translate diplomatic consensus into a concrete operational plan. A **Washington Institute** report nonetheless highlights a weakness: the lag between the ceasefire announcement and the convening of the planning conference "raises legitimate doubts about the ability to deploy as fast as events demand." An honest critique that Franco-British military planners do not dispute.

But the Berlin summit changed the equation. By solemnly committing five major European powers at the highest level, it consolidated the political legitimacy of the mission and accelerated national constitutional procedures. **NATO**, through Secretary General **Mark Rutte**, declared readiness to play a role "if helpful and if requested." The coalition holds.

*The planning conference at Northwood in April brought together 30 nations over two days. That is no small thing. You can criticize the timeline, but you have to acknowledge that Europe produced an operational military plan in a matter of weeks. For an institution chronically accused of bureaucratic sluggishness, that is almost miraculous.*

## The economic stakes: 2,000 vessels waiting

### The paralysis of world trade

According to sources consulted by **Reuters**, some **2,000 tankers and cargo ships** are waiting for conditions to normalize before transiting the strait. The economic cost of this paralysis is colossal. Energy prices across **Europe** surged — eurozone inflation reached **3.2% in May 2026** — and global supply chains bear the scars of a closure lasting weeks. Every additional day of uncertainty costs billions.

For shipowners and insurance companies, an official reopening of the strait will not be enough. They need the physical guarantee that the channel is safe. That is the irreplaceable role of the demining mission: not only to eliminate explosive devices, but to **certify** each maritime corridor before global maritime insurers. Without that certification, even an officially open strait remains an uninsurable risk zone.

### The stakes of a decentered world

The **Hormuz** crisis has revealed a truth the West preferred not to face: the security of global trade flows rests on a handful of ultra-vulnerable chokepoints. The **Strait of Hormuz**, the **Suez Canal**, the **Strait of Malacca** — these bottlenecks can be closed by a determined actor with asymmetric means. **Russia**, **China**, **Iran**, and **North Korea** fully understand this. Europe is only beginning to draw the strategic conclusions.

That is why the Franco-British mission transcends the immediate stakes. It lays the foundations for a permanent European capability to project naval power and secure commercial routes. If this coalition works, it will become the model for a **European strategic autonomy** in naval affairs — something that **Macron**'s speeches had demanded for years without ever finding concrete form.

*The Strait of Hormuz as geopolitical revealer: we discovered that 20% of the world's oil could be cut off by a handful of drones and underwater mines. Europe imports 90% of its energy. It was high time it understood that energy security also means naval security — and that you cannot outsource everything to Washington.*

## The mission seen from Tehran, Washington, and Moscow

### Tehran: deconfliction and surveillance

The Berlin declaration specifies that the mission will be "distinct from any other military campaign" and will maintain "clear channels of communication and deconfliction with all states concerned." This language is directed squarely at **Tehran**. Military planners have clearly indicated that the Franco-British mission is prepared to "engage on operational matters" with Iran. It is diplomatically deft: confront nothing, work around everything.

But **Iran** remains a threat. Its fleet of maritime drones, its anti-ship missiles, its mine warfare capabilities are real and battle-tested. The **IRGC** — Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — demonstrated throughout the conflict its ability to strike high-value naval targets. The Franco-British mission will operate in an environment where the asymmetric threat will remain even after a ceasefire.

### Moscow: the interested observer

**Russia** watches this dynamic with a mixture of satisfaction and unease. Satisfaction, because the Hormuz crisis has weakened Western economies and distracted **NATO** from Ukraine. Unease, because an operational and credible European naval coalition, capable of projecting power into the Persian Gulf, is precisely the kind of capability **Moscow** does not want to see develop. If Europe learns to act alone at sea, it will tomorrow be capable of acting alone in the Black Sea or the Baltic.

For **Moscow**, the emergence of European naval sovereignty is bad news in the long run. That is precisely why the success of the Franco-British mission goes beyond the simple framework of maritime security. It sends a message to all revisionist powers: the **West** can project, coordinate, and act without **America**.

*Moscow is watching. That is actually what interests me most in this story: the real symbolic target of the Franco-British mission is not Iran — it's Russia. Showing that a European coalition can plan and execute a naval operation of this scale redraws the limits of Russian influence in global waters.*

## Constitutional procedures: Europe's Achilles' heel

### When parliaments set the tempo

The Berlin declaration takes care to specify that participation will proceed "as soon as conditions allow and in accordance with respective constitutional requirements." This language is not incidental. In **Germany**, any military deployment requires **Bundestag** approval. In **Italy**, Prime Minister **Giorgia Meloni** clarified that any Italian participation would require "parliamentary authorization." **Lithuania**, the smallest of the powers involved, voted on **June 4** to authorize the deployment of **40 military personnel** for Strait of Hormuz missions, with **78 votes in favor and 7 against** — a model of democratic clarity.

This constitutional constraint is both a strength and a weakness. A strength, because it anchors military commitments in democratic legitimacy. A weakness, because it slows deployments in crises that do not wait for parliamentary calendars. Allied military planners know this: they must factor this reality into their operational timelines.

### Toward a shared doctrine?

The Berlin summit laid another brick toward building a shared European security doctrine. The Five committed their countries to "intensify defense industrial cooperation," to "accelerate the joint development of long-range precision strike capabilities," and to "exploit emerging technologies." These are the components of a coherent European military architecture — something **Macron**'s speeches at the **Sorbonne** and the Collège de France had theorized without ever being concretized at this speed.

The Hormuz crisis will have achieved what years of European diplomacy had failed to accomplish: forcing **Europe** to develop a common operational doctrine for maritime security. Sometimes it is crises that give birth to history.

*I acknowledge a certain irony in the fact that it took a war Europeans did not choose — the American-Israeli war against Iran — to force them to build what twenty years of speeches on strategic autonomy had not produced. Threats concentrate minds more effectively than any summit.*

## NATO in the wings: support without command

### Rutte plays the flexibility card

**NATO** Secretary General, Dutchman **Mark Rutte**, was carefully ambivalent about the Alliance's role. "If it's useful, of course we will play a role, but if they can do it without us, that is also fine," he declared before Alliance Defense Ministers on **June 17, 2026**. This clever formulation avoids creating a precedent for **NATO** engagement outside its zone in a war involving the **United States** — which would have been a legally and politically insoluble contradiction.

The Franco-British mission is deliberately designed outside **NATO** for two reasons: first, because **NATO** is constitutionally confined to the Euro-Atlantic area, and the Persian Gulf falls outside it; second, because a **NATO**-branded operation involving member states engaged in the conflict (**USA**) would have been legally untenable. The distinction between the coalition and the Alliance is essential for the mission to be perceived as neutral.

### The paradox of a NATO strengthened by its absence

Paradoxically, by stepping back, **NATO** emerges strengthened from this crisis. European allies demonstrate they can act autonomously and effectively — exactly what Washington had been demanding for years. The pledge of **2% of GDP** on defense, the commitments from the Hague summit on defense investment, the concrete deployments in the Gulf: all of this builds a credibility that Brussels palaver never produced. **Europe** learns to walk by acting, not by deliberating.

The **Ankara** summit, scheduled for **July 7 and 8, 2026**, will be a decisive test. It must ratify Berlin's commitments, formalize each country's contributions to the Hormuz mission, and draw the contours of a new Euro-Atlantic security architecture in which **Europeans** genuinely carry their share of the burden — in practice, not just in principle.

*NATO strengthened by stepping aside: that would have seemed absurd five years ago. But it is precisely what is happening. By letting Europeans lead the Hormuz mission, Washington validates the principle of European strategic autonomy it always theoretically supported but practically undermined. It is ironic, but it is real.*

## The Ankara summit in perspective: the coalition's next test

### What NATO will expect in Ankara

The **NATO** summit scheduled for **July 7 and 8, 2026** in **Ankara** will be the first major multilateral gathering since the **E5 Berlin** summit. It must transform Berlin's political commitments into concrete allocations: which countries send which ships, what rules of engagement, what operational command structure. **Northwood** planners are waiting for precise answers on each nation's contributions. The Berlin speeches were eloquent; the **Ankara** debates will be technical, hard-fought, and decisive.

**Turkey**, the summit's host country, plays a particularly delicate role. **Ankara** maintains commercial relations with **Iran** and did not join Western sanctions against **Tehran**. The question of Turkish participation — symbolic or substantive — in the Franco-British mission will be one of the fault lines of the summit. If **Turkey** abstains, the coalition will have a geographic and political gap in its fleet. If it participates, it sends a strong signal to **Moscow** and **Tehran** about **Alliance** cohesion.

### Industrial consolidation and lessons for tomorrow

Beyond the immediate mission, the **Ankara** summit should also address the question of European industrial consolidation for mine warfare and demining capabilities. **Europe** has few modern mine hunters — **Italy**, **Belgium**, the **Netherlands**, and the **United Kingdom** have some, but stocks are limited. If the Hormuz mission must last for months, the question of vessel rotation and maintaining operational readiness will become critical. This is as much an industrial dossier as an operational one.

European naval sector companies — **Naval Group** in France, **BAE Systems** in the United Kingdom, **Fincantieri** in Italy — have already received clear signals from defense ministries about accelerated orders for mine hunters and autonomous underwater drones. The Hormuz crisis will therefore leave two lasting legacies: an operational naval coalition and a finally serious European naval rearmament program.

*Ankara will be the moment of truth for the Berlin rhetoric. Political commitments will meet budgetary, constitutional, and industrial realities. I hope the Five will have the courage to honor their promises. But the history of NATO summits has taught me caution: fine declarations rarely fill industrial order books.*

## Conclusion: France and the United Kingdom, global naval powers once more

### A strategic renaissance

What the **Strait of Hormuz** has revealed is that **France** and the **United Kingdom** — the only two nuclear powers within the **EU** and European space — are the only states on the continent capable of projecting credible naval force **6,000 kilometers** from their own shores. The **Charles de Gaulle** in the Arabian Sea, the **HMS Dragon** in transit, the **Typhoons** on alert: this is not a bluff. It is a real capability, rare in today's world.

The **Berlin summit of June 24, 2026** consecrated this reality. By mandating **Paris** and **London** to co-lead the **Multinational Military Mission**, the **Five** acknowledged what history had written: only these two countries have the means, the will, and the legitimacy to represent Europe on the world's seas. That is a responsibility, not merely a privilege.

### What history will remember

In ten years, if the mission succeeds and the **Strait of Hormuz** reopens its waters to world trade, the E5 Berlin summit will be remembered as the moment **Europe** decided to take its maritime destiny into its own hands. If it fails — due to parliamentary procedures, national rivalries, or an Iranian relapse — it will be a missed opportunity of a generation. The stakes are not only geopolitical. They are existential: who is **Europe**? A power that acts, or a forum that debates? The answer is being written right now, in the waters of the Persian Gulf.

*I will close with a simple conviction: Europe has rarely had more reason to be proud of itself than in this June 2026. Not out of vanity, but because History has a way of testing nations. The Strait of Hormuz is that test. Europe's response is imperfect, laborious, noisy — but it is real. That is all one can ask.*

**By Maxime Marquette, columnist**

## Columnist's transparency note

### Editorial stance

I am not a journalist but a **columnist and analyst**. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies.

I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. **I claim analytical clarity**, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events.

### Method and sources

This text keeps the basic distinction between **verified facts and interpretive analysis**. The rule never changes: a factual claim is published only when a verifiable source supports it, and the sources this article actually used are listed under **Sources**, never here.

**Primary source families** used by the publication, when the story has them: official statements from governments and international institutions, public statements by political leaders, reports from intergovernmental organisations, dispatches from recognised international news agencies.

**Secondary source families**: specialised publications, internationally recognised news media, analyses from established research institutions, reports from industry organisations.

When an article cites statistical, economic or geopolitical data, it comes from the institutions that produce it (intergovernmental organisations, central banks, national statistics offices), and the exact institution is named under **Sources**.

### Nature of the analysis

The analyses, interpretations and perspectives in the analytical sections of this article are a **critical, contextual synthesis** based on the information available, the trends observed and the expert comments cited in the sources consulted.

My role is to interpret these facts, to set them in the context of today's geopolitical and economic dynamics, and to give them a coherent meaning within the larger story of the changes shaping our time. These analyses reflect expertise built through continuous observation of international affairs and an understanding of the strategic mechanisms that drive global actors.

This article describes a documented state of affairs on its publication date, not a prediction: later developments may shift its outlook. No update is promised in advance; when an article is corrected or completed, the change is dated in the text.

## Sources

### Primary sources

- [French Diplomacy — E5 Berlin Declaration, Euro-Atlantic security commitment — June 26, 2026](https://uk.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/european-leaders-commit-euro-atlantic-security-and-transatlantic-bond)

- [GOV.UK — Joint Statement on the Multinational Military Mission for the Strait of Hormuz, 38 nations — May 12, 2026](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-on-the-multinational-military-mission-for-the-strait-of-hormuz-12-may-2026)

- [French Diplomacy — France-UK Joint Statement on Hormuz, Paris summit 51 countries — April 20, 2026](https://uk.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/france-uk-joint-statement-strait-hormuz)

- [gCaptain — UK mine-hunting force arrives in Middle East as Hormuz mission takes shape — June 24, 2026](https://gcaptain.com/uk-minehunting-force-arrives-in-middle-east-as-multinational-hormuz-mission-takes-shape/)

### Secondary sources

- [Breaking Defense — European coalition: destroyers, drones, and opening the strait — May 15, 2026](https://breakingdefense.com/2026/05/from-destroyers-to-drones-how-a-europe-led-coalition-aims-to-open-the-strait-of-hormuz/)

- [Anadolu Agency — Rutte: NATO ready to support if requested — June 17, 2026](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/nato-ready-to-support-efforts-to-reopen-hormuz-strait-if-requested-says-rutte/3969662)

- ABC News — Demining and escort mission: what US allies are proposing — June 16, 2026

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Source: Maxime Marquette, MadMax. When citing, name the author and link https://mad-max.co/en/article/enquete-hormuz-les-puissances-navales-reprennent-leur-destin-en-main