# How Ukraine made Russian oil its top target > Introduction: a campaign, not an accident - Author: Maxime Marquette - Publisher: MadMax (https://mad-max.co) - Section: Investigation - Published: 2026-07-03 - Canonical URL: https://mad-max.co/en/article/enquete-comment-lukraine-a-fait-du-petrole-russe-sa-cible-prioritaire ## Introduction: a campaign, not an accident ### Two refineries, one same logic **Saturday night**, Ukrainian drones once again struck at the heart of **Russia**. According to **Bloomberg**, **Ukraine** hit the **Slaviansk-na-Kubani** refinery in the **Krasnodar** region, as well as a site in **Yaroslavl**, roughly **700 kilometers** from the Ukrainian border. President **Volodymyr Zelensky** confirmed both strikes on social media, calling them "long-range sanctions." This kind of **strike** has become so frequent that it risks going unnoticed in the constant flow of news about this war. That is precisely what I want to avoid in this investigation: showing that behind every isolated explosion lies a coherent, patient, and devastatingly effective strategy against **Vladimir Putin's** war economy. ### Why this investigation now The repeated strikes on Russian oil infrastructure deserve serious attention, because they are changing the very nature of the conflict. This is no longer just a frozen trench war, but an economic war where every refinery hit directly weighs on the **Kremlin's** ability to fund its military effort. *I'll say it plainly: this oil war is becoming the most decisive front of the conflict, far more so than the few square kilometers that change hands each month in the Donbas.* ## What the Slaviansk-na-Kubani target reveals ### A strategic refinery for Crimea The **Slaviansk-na-Kubani** refinery, owned by the **Slavneft-YANOS** group Slaviansk EKO, processes nearly **4 million tons of crude per year** with a capacity of about **100,000 barrels per day**, according to **Bloomberg**. It supplies a significant share of the fuel destined for **occupied Crimea** and for exports through Black Sea ports. The site had already been hit in **January**, confirming that **Kyiv** methodically returns to strike the same targets until their operational capacity is durably reduced. One person was killed and one wounded, according to governor **Veniamin Kondratyev**, following this latest strike. *This repetition is no accident: it is a deliberate military doctrine designed to progressively wear down infrastructure that Moscow wrongly believed could absorb strikes indefinitely.* ## The strategic reach of the Yaroslavl strike ### A signal sent to all of inland Russia Striking a target **700 kilometers** from the Ukrainian border, as in **Yaroslavl**, sends a clear message: no Russian region, however far from the front, is safe from **Kyiv's** drones. Governor **Mikhail Yevrayev** confirmed a drone attack that forced the temporary closure of roads toward **Moscow**. Russian authorities have remained largely silent about the exact extent of the damage, a silence that, according to several analysts cited by **Al Jazeera**, reflects a desire to downplay a vulnerability that is embarrassing for the **Kremlin's** image. *Russian silence about these strikes sometimes speaks louder than any official statement. It is the tacit admission of a power that no longer fully controls the narrative of its own vulnerability.* ## A methodical escalation over several months ### A frequency that has doubled According to data compiled by **Reuters**, the frequency of drone strikes on Russian refineries has doubled since the start of the year, causing complete or partial refining shutdowns. On June 18, a record assault targeted **Moscow** itself, with nearly **194 drones** shot down according to mayor **Sergei Sobyanin**, some of which reached the capital's refinery. The **International Energy Agency** estimates that this pressure will continue to weigh on Russian refining capacity at least until mid-2026, according to **Bloomberg**. This is proof that this Ukrainian strategy is producing measurable, lasting effects, not merely one-off symbolic gestures. *When an agency as cautious as the IEA acknowledges the scale of the impact, it becomes impossible to dismiss this campaign as a mere Ukrainian communications operation.* ## Vladimir Putin's unusual admission ### A "certain deficit" acknowledged publicly **Vladimir Putin** admitted, during a televised interview reported by the **Chicago Tribune**, that **Russia** is experiencing a "certain deficit" of fuel, while promising to strengthen security at oil sites. He accused **Kyiv** of trying to "create divisions" within Russian society. On the ground, lines are forming at gas stations and several regions have introduced rationing, according to **Fortune**. In **Crimea**, the free sale of gasoline to the public has even been suspended, with fuel reserved for emergency vehicles. *Watching Putin acknowledge a fuel shortage, however downplayed in his remarks, is a revealing moment for anyone who has followed this war from the start: the Kremlin's constant lying is starting to crack under the weight of facts.* ## The economic impact documented by the numbers ### Oil revenues in continuous decline According to an analysis by the **Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air** cited by the **Guardian**, revenue from Russian fossil fuel exports has fallen **13%** compared to pre-war levels in 2025. The **International Monetary Fund** projects growth of just **1.1%** for the Russian economy in 2026. The increase in **Russian VAT**, from **20% to 22%** at the start of the year, confirms that the **Kremlin's** budget is stretched thin, forced to make up through domestic taxation for the losses caused by sanctions and Ukrainian strikes. *Every extra VAT point paid by a Russian pensioner is, indirectly, a consequence of the war Putin chose. The Russian people are already paying that bill, whether they know it or not.* ## The price paid simultaneously by Ukrainian civilians ### Reprisals that only ever target legitimate military objectives The same day, a Russian air bomb killed two people in **Zaporizhzhia**, according to regional administration head **Ivan Fedorov**. Ukraine's air force reported intercepting **125 drones** and **seven missiles** out of the **142 drones** and **eight missiles** launched by **Russia** that night. This asymmetry must be named clearly: on one side, an invading army striking civilians; on the other, a nation targeting the economic and military levers of its aggressor in self-defense. *I reject any false equivalence between these two sides. There is an aggressor and a victim defending itself intelligently, and conflating the two would be a moral failure as much as an analytical one.* ## The authoritarian axis behind Russian resistance ### Growing dependence on Beijing According to a study published by the **Kiel Institute**, **China** now accounts for roughly **35%** of Russia's total foreign trade and supplies the vast majority of dual-use goods entering the country. This growing dependence illustrates a major strategic shift: the more Western sanctions and Ukrainian strikes weigh on **Moscow**, the more the **Kremlin** becomes dependent on **Beijing** to keep its war machine running. The liquid reserves of Russia's sovereign wealth fund fell from **6.5% of GDP** at the start of the war to just **1.8% in April 2026**, according to the same institute. Oil and gas revenues dropped **45% year-on-year** in the first quarter of 2026, a collapse that confirms, with hard numbers, that Ukraine's deep-strike strategy is producing considerable cumulative effects on the **Kremlin's** finances. *This growing dependence on China should worry every Western strategist. A Kremlin on the ropes, financed and equipped by Beijing, is living proof that the axis of authoritarian regimes tightens as each of its members grows economically weaker.* ### An exhausted workforce, inflation looming The **Kiel Institute** report also notes that the main constraint on Russia's war economy is no longer access to money, but access to people, technology, and productive capacity. Labor shortages are hitting record levels, and any further increase in military spending risks producing more **inflation** rather than a real rise in weapons production. This diagnosis, drawn up by independent economists rather than Ukrainian propaganda, confirms that the campaign against refineries fits within a broader context of structural exhaustion of the Russian economy, where every new front of pressure, energy or financial, worsens an already fragile situation. *It bears repeating relentlessly: an economy short on hands and technology does not recover through triumphalist speeches on state television. Putin may deny reality in front of the cameras, but the Kiel Institute's numbers tell a very different story.* This structural picture also explains why sanctions enforcement now matters as much as sanctions design. A regime that cannot replace lost machinery, cannot retrain lost workers fast enough, and cannot substitute foreign components on short notice is a regime running on borrowed time, propped up almost entirely by **Beijing's** willingness to keep supplying it. ## Conclusion: a war also being won in the tanks ### A strategic bet that is paying off This **investigation** confirms an underlying trend: **Ukraine** has made **economic warfare** an essential component of its resistance, with **measurable results** on **Russian oil revenues** and on the daily life of the Russian population itself. Every refinery hit, every line forming outside a Siberian gas station, every VAT hike imposed on Russian citizens, are all direct consequences of a Ukrainian strategy built for the long term. ### What remains to be watched It remains to be seen whether the **West** will know how to support this dynamic by intensifying its own **sanctions regime**, particularly against Russia's **shadow fleet** and the **Chinese** suppliers of sanctioned military components. The current strategic window will not stay open indefinitely, and every month of delay in strengthening Western sanctions grants the **Kremlin** an unwelcome reprieve. That is why this investigation closes with a clear call for vigilance and for accelerating support to **Kyiv**. Every **data point** gathered here, from **Bloomberg** to the **Kiel Institute**, points toward the same conclusion: the **refinery campaign** is not a marginal irritant but a **core pillar** of Ukrainian strategy. The **coming months** will show whether **Kyiv** can sustain the tempo of these strikes while **Western allies** finally close the loopholes that keep feeding the **Kremlin's** war chest through **third-country** intermediaries and **sanctioned** shipping networks. **By Maxime Marquette, columnist** ## Columnist's transparency note ### Editorial stance I am not a journalist but a **columnist and analyst**. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies. I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. **I claim analytical clarity**, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events. ### Method and sources This text keeps the basic distinction between **verified facts and interpretive analysis**. The rule never changes: a factual claim is published only when a verifiable source supports it, and the sources this article actually used are listed under **Sources**, never here. **Primary source families** used by the publication, when the story has them: official statements from governments and international institutions, public statements by political leaders, reports from intergovernmental organisations, dispatches from recognised international news agencies. **Secondary source families**: specialised publications, internationally recognised news media, analyses from established research institutions, reports from industry organisations. When an article cites statistical, economic or geopolitical data, it comes from the institutions that produce it (intergovernmental organisations, central banks, national statistics offices), and the exact institution is named under **Sources**. ### Nature of the analysis The analyses, interpretations and perspectives in the analytical sections of this article are a **critical, contextual synthesis** based on the information available, the trends observed and the expert comments cited in the sources consulted. My role is to interpret these facts, to set them in the context of today's geopolitical and economic dynamics, and to give them a coherent meaning within the larger story of the changes shaping our time. These analyses reflect expertise built through continuous observation of international affairs and an understanding of the strategic mechanisms that drive global actors. This article describes a documented state of affairs on its publication date, not a prediction: later developments may shift its outlook. No update is promised in advance; when an article is corrected or completed, the change is dated in the text. ## Sources ### Primary sources - [Ukraine Targets Russian Refineries in Fresh Drone Strikes — Bloomberg, June 28, 2026](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-28/ukraine-targets-russian-refineries-in-fresh-drone-strikes) - [Ukraine says it attacked two Russian oil refineries — Al Jazeera, June 28, 2026](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/28/ukraine-says-it-attacked-two-russian-oil-refineries) - [Ukraine hits two Russian oil refineries overnight — Reuters, June 28, 2026](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-hits-two-russian-oil-refineries-overnight-2026-06-28/) ### Secondary sources - [Ukraine's drone attacks create fuel shortages in Russia — Fortune, June 28, 2026](https://fortune.com/2026/06/28/ukraine-drone-attacks-russian-refineries-fuel-shortages-siberia/) - [Ukrainian Strike Kills 1 in Southern Russia, Refinery on Fire — The Moscow Times, June 28, 2026](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/06/28/ukrainian-strike-kills-one-in-southern-russia-refinery-on-fire-a93114) - [The Russian economy is finally stagnating — The Guardian, February 6, 2026](https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2026/feb/06/the-russian-economy-is-finally-stagnating-what-does-it-mean-for-the-war-and-for-putin) --- Source: Maxime Marquette, MadMax. When citing, name the author and link https://mad-max.co/en/article/enquete-comment-lukraine-a-fait-du-petrole-russe-sa-cible-prioritaire