# EDITORIAL: Ankara, the summit that will reshape the Atlantic Alliance

> On July 7 and 8, 2026, the leaders of 32 NATO member nations will converge on the Beştepe Presidential Complex in Ankara. This will be the 36th Atlantic Alliance Summit, and only the second ever held in Turkey — twenty-two years after Istanbul, in 2004. But the geopolitical context bears no resemblance: in 2004, the Alliance was celebrating its eastward enlargement. In 2026, it

- Author: Maxime Marquette
- Publisher: MadMax (https://mad-max.co)
- Section: Editorial
- Published: 2026-06-27
- Canonical URL: https://mad-max.co/en/article/editorial-ankara-le-sommet-qui-va-recomposer-l-alliance-atlantique

## Introduction: NATO at the Turkish crossroads

### A summit under transatlantic tension

On **July 7** and **8,** 2026, the leaders of **32 NATO member nations** will converge on the Beştepe Presidential Complex in **Ankara**. This will be the **36th Atlantic Alliance Summit**, and only the second ever held in Turkey — twenty-two years after Istanbul, in **2004.** But the geopolitical context bears no resemblance: in **2004,** the Alliance was celebrating its eastward enlargement. In **2026,** it is trying to survive its own fractures.

Secretary General **Mark Rutte** confirmed the Ankara venue as early as August **2025.** Since then, preparations have intensified under the eyes of a world watching to see whether the most powerful alliance in history can still hold together under the pressure of Trump, the war in **Ukraine**, Middle East instability, and China's growing ambitions.

### The list of participants: the heavyweights are there

US President **Donald Trump** confirmed his personal attendance, as announced by Secretary of State **Marco Rubio** before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on June **3.** Ukrainian President **Volodymyr Zelensky** will be there too — Rutte invited him directly in May, just as he had done at The Hague the previous year. The French president, the British Prime Minister, German Chancellor **Friedrich Merz**, Canadian Prime Minister **Mark Carney**: the entire governing planet of the West will be in **Ankara**. Plus nine partner countries beyond the **32** members, including Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and members of the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative — Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.

*I remember the first time I truly understood what NATO represents: it is not a treaty on paper — it is a collective oath. But oaths can be broken. And **Ankara**, this July week, will tell us whether ours still holds.*

## The ambiguous host: Erdogan as master of the game

### Turkey, 70 years of Alliance and as many paradoxes

Recep Tayyip **Erdogan** has carefully prepared this moment. Turkey has been a NATO member since **1952**— among the oldest. It possesses the Alliance's second-largest army after the United States. But it also maintains commercial and energy ties with Russia, long blocked Sweden's and Finland's accession, and maintains delicate links with Moscow that the other Allies observe with suspicion. **Ankara** is an indispensable piece in the game — and that is precisely why it is **Erdogan** who holds the gavel.

By hosting this summit, Turkey is consolidating its status as an **indispensable power** in the Euro-Atlantic security architecture. **Erdogan** has declared he wants to make **2026**"a year when Turkey's international visibility and diplomatic profile reach new heights." With Trump, **Zelensky**, Merz, and Macron sitting at his table, he is not exaggerating.

### The mediator's ambition on Ukraine

Turkey is also playing a mediating role in the Ukrainian conflict — a role **Erdogan** claims with pride. In March **2022,** Istanbul hosted direct negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow. Prisoner exchanges and the grain deal followed. In May **2026,** Ukrainian Foreign Minister **Andrii Sybiha** indicated that Kyiv had asked Turkey to host a potential meeting between **Zelensky** and **Putin**. **Erdogan** conveyed the message to Rutte: **Ankara** is working to relaunch direct negotiations.

***Erdogan** as peace mediator in **Ukraine**. There is an almost Shakespearean irony here: the man who purchased Russian S-400s against the Alliance's wishes, who held Swedish accession hostage for months, is now the best-positioned person to speak to everyone. That is realpolitik.*

## The central file: implementing the 5% of GDP commitment

### The Hague pledge: between promise and reality

At The Hague summit in June **2025,** the **32** Allies made a historic commitment: to devote **5% of GDP** annually to defense and related security expenditures by **2035.** The formula is two-tiered: **at least 3.5%** of GDP for core defense needs, and **up to an additional 1.5**% for cybersecurity, critical infrastructure, civil resilience, and the defense industrial base. Trump had called the agreement a "monumental success" — one he had been demanding "for years."

But between pledging **5%** and committing national budgets to it, there is a chasm. In March **2026,** Rutte published the Secretary General's annual report: European and Canadian defense spending had increased by **20% in one year**. That is encouraging. But according to the Atlantic Council, only a few countries are truly "on track" toward **5%**, and several European leaders — including Spain — have called the target "unreasonable."

### Ankara: implementation under scrutiny

Rutte has been clear: "I expect Allies to demonstrate, at the upcoming summit in **Ankara**, that they are on a clear and credible path to achieving the **5%** goal." This will not be a summit for making new promises — it will be a summit for proving that The Hague pledges are not empty words. The first report on the **1.5**% component will be presented for the first time in **Ankara**. A **Defence Industry Forum** will be held in parallel on July **7,** showcasing transatlantic industrial cooperation.

*The 5% of GDP in defense is a quiet revolution. For France, it would mean doubling the military budget. For Germany, nearly tripling it. Do these democracies have the genuine political will to go there? I do not know. But I know that without it, NATO becomes an empty shell against Russia and China.*

## Trump and NATO: a marriage of convenience under high tension

### American doubt about Article 5

The great unknown at the **Ankara** summit is American commitment. In June **2025,** aboard Air Force One, Trump unsettled his allies by being evasive about the US response to an attack on a NATO member. "Article **5** can be defined in several ways," he let slip. The final Hague declaration had reaffirmed the "unwavering commitment" to collective defense — but allies know that the words of a communiqué carry little weight against the decisions of the American president.

In April **2026,** tensions resurfaced. Trump criticized Allies on Truth Social for their "absolute refusal" to help against Iran. He questioned the Alliance's value to the United States. Rutte rushed to Washington for a "frank and open" meeting in the Oval Office. The American administration no longer hides its message: Europeans must take **primary responsibility** for their own conventional defense.

### The friction points: Greenland and Iran

Two crises have shaken the Alliance in **2026.** First, Trump's proposal to acquire Greenland — Danish territory, therefore NATO territory. Europeans responded with consternation, without wanting to quarrel with Washington. Second, the American-Israeli strikes against Iran: the Trump administration criticized Europeans for their "reluctance" to support this military campaign. These two episodes, according to the Estonian International Centre for Defence and Security, pushed intra-Alliance tensions "to a record level."

*Trump is a necessary evil for NATO — I genuinely believe that. He has forced Europeans out of the comfort of American dependency. But an ally who publicly questions Article 5 is also an existential risk. The balance is unstable. And **Ankara** is the next stress test.*

## The Ukraine question: member or not, the void remains

### Zelensky in Ankara: present but not a member

Volodymyr **Zelensky** will be in **Ankara** — Rutte invited him directly. But his presence does not mean **Ukraine** is on the verge of joining the Alliance. In December **2025,** Rutte was bluntly frank: "There is currently no consensus on Ukraine's NATO membership." This consensus, required by treaty unanimity, does not exist and will not be built at **Ankara** in July.

**Ukraine** is requesting **additional missile interceptors** for its air defense. **Zelensky**, alongside Rutte in June 2026, said he had secured agreements with "several countries" for their place in the queue for American **Patriot** deliveries. That is concrete. That is vital. But it is not membership. And Kyiv knows it.

### The hybrid formula of support

The Alliance committed in The Hague declaration that direct contributions to Ukraine's defense would count toward the 5% of GDP calculation. That is a strong political acknowledgment — but it is not Article 5 for **Ukraine**. The **coalition of the willing** led by the United Kingdom and France — which have deployed forces in **Ukraine** — is expected to be discussed in **Ankara**, notably because several Gulf partners will be present and could be invited to join.

***Ukraine** deserves better than repeated promises. **Zelensky** has been fighting for over four years against an army that bombs his cities every night. Seeing him seated at the **Ankara** table as a non-member, begging for additional **Patriots** — this is an image that should collectively shame us. The West must do better.*

## The security architecture of the new Alliance

### Europe takes charge of its own defense

Washington's message has been received: Europe must defend itself. The Alliance is considering a restructuring in which the United States would maintain its nuclear role and presence in high-technology domains, while Europeans handle the bulk of the continent's conventional defense. This is what the Estonian ICDS calls a "shift toward a more European Alliance while keeping America engaged."

The Defense Industry Forum on July 7 will showcase this transformation. European purchases of American military equipment — F-35s, **Patriots**, Abrams tanks — will be presented as evidence of balanced transatlantic industrial cooperation. Rutte has spoken of "tens of billions in defense contracts" being concluded at the summit. The economic machinery is turning.

### Indo-Pacific partners: a globalized NATO

Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand will be in **Ankara** as partners. This is not trivial: it is an acknowledgment that Euro-Atlantic security is inextricably linked to Indo-Pacific stability — and that China is now part of the Alliance's strategic equation. The presence of Gulf partners adds a Middle East dimension that, in the middle of the Iran conflict, could not be ignored.

*NATO is becoming something radically new. It is no longer merely a European collective defense alliance — it is becoming the nervous system of the global Western order. This is dizzying. And it is necessary in the face of the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea axis.*

## Security in Ankara: a de facto state of emergency

### A city locked down, a city under surveillance

To host 32 heads of state, **Zelensky**, a hundred ministers, and thousands of delegates, **Ankara** is being transformed into a fortress. The **Erdogan** government has banned all demonstrations, marches, and public gatherings in the city from **July 1 to 15**. Areas around the presidential complex, the airport, and hotels have been declared "red zones." Tens of thousands of police will be deployed. Officials from nine districts will be placed on administrative leave to empty the city center. Foreign activists will be blocked from entry in coordination with allied intelligence services.

This titanic security apparatus says something about the era: when the most powerful leaders in the world meet, they must barricade themselves in. It is a measure of the perceived threat level — and a measure of the gap between the ruling elites and the populations watching them make decisions that affect their lives.

### The pressure of European public opinion

Outside **Ankara**, European public opinion is ambivalent. In several countries, polls show war fatigue and resistance to increasing military spending at the expense of social services. Spain has said the 5% goal is "unreasonable." Hungary under **Péter Magyar** — who replaced Orbán after elections — will arrive at **Ankara** with its own red lines. The unanimity of **Ankara** will be a diplomatic performance before it is a reality.

*Governing often means choosing between uncomfortable truth and comfortable consensus. At **Ankara**, leaders will choose consensus. That is human. But somewhere in a Beştepe conference room, someone must also speak the truth: NATO is not ready for a war against Russia, nor for a confrontation with China. Not yet.*

## The Black Sea file and Turkish interests

### Turkey, guardian of the Bosphorus

Turkey controls the Bosphorus and Dardanelles Straits — the only maritime passage between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. Under the 1936 Montreux Convention, **Ankara** has the right to deny passage to warships during conflicts. Since the start of the war in **Ukraine**, Turkey has closed passage to both Russian AND Allied warships — a decision praised as balanced, but one that also prevented NATO naval reinforcements in the Black Sea. This exceptional strategic power will be the backdrop of every conversation in **Ankara**.

Rutte himself acknowledged Turkey's "legitimate concerns" about Black Sea security, which he called "further evidence of the broader security risks posed by Russia's war against **Ukraine**." Turkey will want concrete reciprocities for its role as guardian.

### The Strait of Hormuz agreement

The Tallinn-based Institute for Defence and Security recommends that **Ankara** leaders also discuss the reopening of the **Strait of Hormuz** — paralyzed by the Iran conflict — with the four Gulf partners present. This is an ambitious proposal combining global trade, energy security, and naval power projection. If Trump could bring home a Hormuz agreement from **Ankara**, it would be a resounding diplomatic victory. But the obstacles are immense.

*The sea. War always ultimately plays out on the seas — trade routes, straits, undersea cables. Whoever controls the seas controls the global economy. And there, Turkey plays a role that neither Paris, nor Berlin, nor Washington can play alone. That is real geopolitics.*

## The Rubio test: "the most important NATO summit in history"

### American rhetoric at its peak

Secretary of State **Marco Rubio** did not mince words before Congress: **Ankara** would be "probably the most important NATO summit in the Alliance's history." That is a loaded statement. It signals that Washington expects concrete results — not vague communiqués, not goals pushed to 2035, but immediate evidence that Allies are genuinely committing.

What Trump will want to bring back from Turkey: announcements of massive purchases of American equipment by European Allies, tangible increases in defense budgets, and public validation of his "America First" doctrine translated into Alliance strengthening. Rutte has understood this game: "A strong transatlantic bond remains essential in this period of global uncertainty," he said — implicitly directing the message at his difficult head of state.

### The risk of Turkey "hijacking" the summit

Analysts at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies have warned: Turkey could use its host position to advance its own agendas — recognition of Hamas, lifting of arms export restrictions toward certain countries, or progress on the question of its possible reintegration into the F-35 program from which it was excluded in 2019 following its purchase of Russian S-400s. **Erdogan** will not let an opportunity like this pass without extracting something.

*That is the full complexity of an alliance of 32. Every member state arrives at **Ankara** with its own shopping list. And the host, more than anyone, has the home advantage. **Erdogan** is a world-class negotiator. He will know exactly when to strike — and what he wants in return for his hospitality.*

## Ukraine at the table: without membership, but with weapons

### The "support without membership" formula

NATO has developed a complex institutional formula for helping **Ukraine** without promising it membership: the **NATO-Ukraine Council**, created in Vilnius in 2023, meets regularly with the 32 Allies and Kyiv. At The Hague, contributions to Ukraine's defense were integrated into the 5% GDP calculation. In **Ankara**, **Zelensky** will push for commitments on air defense — notably additional **Patriots**, NASAMS, and F-16s.

The underlying question remains open: can **Ukraine** be supported indefinitely without offering a prospect of Euro-Atlantic integration? Rutte had hoped for a ceasefire before **Ankara**. He has been praying for it. As of June 2026, it has not yet come. **Zelensky** therefore arrives at **Ankara** still at war — and he will expect Allies to rise to the occasion.

### Patriot missiles: Kyiv's absolute priority

**Zelensky** announced having secured agreements with "several countries" to obtain their places in the American **Patriot** missile delivery queue. These interceptors are the key to **Ukraine**'s survival against Russian drone and missile raids. Russia has just intensified its massive air strikes — as demonstrated by the attack of **660 drones** launched by Ukrainians on June 25-26 against 12 Russian regions, including Moscow. The race for air defenses does not pause for a summit.

*Every **Patriot** delivered to **Ukraine** is a life saved in Kyiv or Kharkiv. That is not a metaphor — it is a reality I weigh every time I read a strike report. Allies who hesitate to deliver weapons for reasons of political calculation should spend one night in a Ukrainian bunker. Just one night.*

## The post-summit: what history will remember

### The possible scenarios

Three scenarios emerge for **Ankara**. The first: a summit of apparent cohesion, where Allies display unity, Trump leaves satisfied with weapons purchases, and **Zelensky** leaves with promises of missiles. That would be a superficial but useful diplomatic victory for keeping the Alliance together. The second: a summit of partial rupture, where public disagreements over **Ukraine** or Greenland erupt, and Trump signals partial American disengagement. That would be catastrophic.

The third, most likely according to Atlantic Council analysts: an **implementation** summit, focused on concrete translation of The Hague promises — national plans toward 5%, industrial contracts signed, enhanced technological cooperation. That would be a useful summit without being revolutionary — and in the current context, that may be all one can hope for.

### The decade-long stakes

What happens at **Ankara** will not only reflect 2026 — it will set the framework for the coming decade. If the Alliance succeeds in consolidating its spending commitments, maintaining support for **Ukraine**, keeping Trump on board, and laying the groundwork for a credible European defense, then **Ankara** will mark a positive turning point. If it fails on any of these fronts, the cracks will become fractures — and it will be **Putin**, Xi Jinping, and the Ayatollahs who benefit.

*There is something strange about watching the West search for itself in **Ankara**, in the capital of a country that plays every side. But perhaps that is geopolitical maturity: understanding that you need difficult partners as much as easy ones. What matters is that the Alliance holds. The rest is negotiable.*

## The final declaration: the art of compromise at 32

### Everyone's red lines

Drafting a final declaration acceptable to 32 governments of different sensibilities is a feat of high-wire diplomacy. At The Hague, the paragraph on Russia was "hard-fought" with Trump, who would have preferred it not exist. At **Ankara**, the same problem will arise over **Ukraine**, Iran, and China. Sherpas have been working for months to find formulations that allow everyone to return home saying they got what they wanted.

Turkey, as host, will have considerable influence over the final wording. **Erdogan** will want a text that acknowledges **Ankara**'s mediating role, that avoids overly direct condemnation of Russia (so as not to torpedo his own diplomatic channels), and that highlights Turkey's contribution to collective security.

### What Rutte wants to inscribe in history

Mark Rutte wants his legacy to be a tangible strengthening of the Alliance under his leadership. He started strong with The Hague and the 5%. At **Ankara**, he will want to show that commitments translate into action. He dreams of a summit that historians will say in twenty years: "This is where the Alliance decided to take its destiny into its own hands." If Trump stays on board, if **Zelensky** remains standing, and if Europeans advance toward 5% — he may yet find his words in the history books.

*Rutte is a Dutch pragmatist in a world that runs on drama. That is not a handicap — it may be precisely what NATO needs. Not a visionary who inspires, but a manager who delivers. And in this context, delivering is already a considerable achievement.*

## What this summit says about the world of 2026

### A West that doubts, but holds

What the **Ankara** summit reflects is a deeply ambivalent West. It knows that liberal democracy is under pressure — externally from Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea; internally from populism, war fatigue, and economic inequality. And yet it holds. The Atlantic Alliance, with all its fractures, remains the most powerful coalition in human history. It is imperfect. It is contradictory. But it exists, and its members keep meeting.

At **Ankara**, **32 democracies** will sit together to decide how to defend a world worth defending. That is not nothing. It is quite a lot, in an era when autocrats advance their pieces with calculated patience and unashamed brutality.

### The Erdogan-Trump equation: a two-faced summit

The summit will inevitably be dominated by the dynamic between two personalities: **Erdogan**, the calculating host, and Trump, the unpredictable ally. **Erdogan** himself confirmed that "the two will likely meet bilaterally." This conversation — private, between two presidents who understand each other in a certain way — may be the most decisive exchange at **Ankara**. What Trump promises **Erdogan**, and what **Erdogan** demands in return, will partly shape what the Alliance becomes for the next ten years.

*I approach **Ankara** with a mixture of curiosity and concern. This summit can be the moment the Alliance finds its second wind. Or the moment the cracks become chasms. History will not tell us immediately. But it will take note of every word spoken in that Beştepe presidential complex — and we will be judged on what we dared, or did not dare, to say out loud.*

## Conclusion: the Alliance must earn its name

### Holding together without lying to each other

An alliance is not just a treaty on paper. It is mutual trust, built on difficult decisions made together. The **Ankara** summit will be an opportunity to strengthen that trust — or to erode it further. Everything depends on what leaders dare to say face to face, away from the cameras. Everything depends on what Trump is prepared to guarantee. And everything depends on what Europeans are ready to build for themselves.

### History will judge

In ten years, we will look back at **Ankara 2026** and ask: did the Alliance choose courage or convenience? Did it stand firm under pressure, or did it bend? The answer is not yet written. It is being shaped in the weeks ahead, in diplomatic preparations, in phone calls between capitals, and finally in that conference room at the Beştepe Complex. We will all be there, in a certain sense — because what is decided there will shape the world in which we live.

*If NATO abandons **Ukraine** at **Ankara** to purchase comfortable peace, it will have destroyed itself. Not because of Russia. Not because of China. Because of its own cowardice. And I say this plainly: the West is worth something only if it is willing to defend its values when doing so is costly. Not just when it is easy.*

## Conclusion: the Alliance must deserve its name

### Holding together without deceiving one another

An alliance is not just a paper treaty. It is mutual trust, built on difficult decisions made together. The **Ankara** summit will be an opportunity to strengthen that trust — or to erode it further. Everything depends on what leaders dare to say face to face, away from the cameras. Everything depends on what Trump is prepared to guarantee. And everything depends on what Europeans are ready to build themselves.

### History will judge

In ten years, we will look back at **Ankara 2026** and ask ourselves: did the Alliance choose courage or convenience? Did it stand tall under pressure, or did it bend? The answer is not yet written. It is being shaped in the coming weeks, in diplomatic preparation, in phone calls between capitals, and finally in that conference room at the Beştepe Complex. We will all be there, in a certain way — because what is decided there will shape the world in which we live.

*The West is not perfect. Neither is NATO. But in a world where **Putin** bombs civilians, where Xi encircles Taiwan, where authoritarian regimes advance their pawns without shame — perfect or not, this Alliance is all we have. And at **Ankara**, we will see whether we still know how to fight for what we love.*

**By Maxime Marquette, columnist**

## Columnist's transparency note

### Editorial stance

I am not a journalist but a **columnist and analyst**. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies.

I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. **I claim analytical clarity**, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events.

### Method and sources

This text keeps the basic distinction between **verified facts and interpretive analysis**. The rule never changes: a factual claim is published only when a verifiable source supports it, and the sources this article actually used are listed under **Sources**, never here.

**Primary source families** used by the publication, when the story has them: official statements from governments and international institutions, public statements by political leaders, reports from intergovernmental organisations, dispatches from recognised international news agencies.

**Secondary source families**: specialised publications, internationally recognised news media, analyses from established research institutions, reports from industry organisations.

When an article cites statistical, economic or geopolitical data, it comes from the institutions that produce it (intergovernmental organisations, central banks, national statistics offices), and the exact institution is named under **Sources**.

### Nature of the analysis

The analyses, interpretations and perspectives in the analytical sections of this article are a **critical, contextual synthesis** based on the information available, the trends observed and the expert comments cited in the sources consulted.

My role is to interpret these facts, to set them in the context of today's geopolitical and economic dynamics, and to give them a coherent meaning within the larger story of the changes shaping our time. These analyses reflect expertise built through continuous observation of international affairs and an understanding of the strategic mechanisms that drive global actors.

This article describes a documented state of affairs on its publication date, not a prediction: later developments may shift its outlook. No update is promised in advance; when an article is corrected or completed, the change is dated in the text.

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Source: Maxime Marquette, MadMax. When citing, name the author and link https://mad-max.co/en/article/editorial-ankara-le-sommet-qui-va-recomposer-l-alliance-atlantique