# DECODING: US-Iran crossfire around Hormuz — a ceasefire on the edge of the abyss

> On June 18, 2026, Donald Trump and Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian signed a pact officially ending the war on all fronts. The

- Author: Maxime Marquette
- Publisher: MadMax (https://mad-max.co)
- Section: Analysis
- Published: 2026-07-01
- Canonical URL: https://mad-max.co/en/article/decryptage-frappes-croisees-us-iran-autour-d-ormuz-le-cessez-le-feu-au-bord-du-g

## Introduction: An agreement signed on June 18, violated on June 25

### Seven days to undo everything

On **June 18, 2026**, **Donald Trump** and Iranian president **Masoud Pezeshkian** signed a pact officially ending the war on all fronts. The agreement had two concrete objectives: reopen the **Strait of Hormuz** to normal commercial shipping and give **60 days** to negotiators to make progress on Iran's nuclear program and American sanctions. For a brief moment, the world held its breath. Oil prices moved back toward pre-war levels. Hundreds of vessels blocked for weeks began to move.

Seven days later, everything was in question again. On **June 25, 2026**, Iran attacked the **M/V Ever Lovely** — a cargo ship flying a **Singaporean** flag that was transiting toward the exit of the Strait of Hormuz along the Omani coast. Four Iranian attack drones. American forces intercepted three of them. The fourth struck the vessel. The cargo ship was able to continue on its way, damaged. But the peace agreement had just taken a blow it might not survive.

*On June 18, Trump and Pezeshkian signed for peace. On June 25, Iran attacked a civilian cargo ship. In seven days, the fragile diplomatic architecture built by JD Vance during talks in Switzerland had collided with a simple reality: a ceasefire agreement is only worth as much as both parties believe they have more to lose by violating it than by honoring it. Iran clearly concluded otherwise.*

## The Ever Lovely attack — anatomy of a calculated provocation

### Why this vessel, why this moment

The **Ever Lovely** was not a military ship. It was a commercial cargo vessel flying a **Singaporean** flag, taking the Omani coastal route — the route promoted by **Washington** and the **International Maritime Organization (IMO)** as a safe alternative to the northern route that passes through Iranian waters under Tehran's control. That was precisely the problem. For Iran, using the Omani route without going through its traffic separation scheme (**TSS**) amounted to denying its sovereignty over the strait — a **"golden card"** of negotiation that Tehran had no intention of surrendering for free.

Iranian deputy foreign minister **Kazem Gharibabadi** said it explicitly on **June 26**: "Safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz cannot be guaranteed under ambiguous arrangements, parallel routes, or decision-making that does not account for Iran's role as a coastal state." A diplomatic translation of a clear military message: ships that do not recognize Iranian authority over the strait can be attacked. This was not an operational error. It was a political declaration disguised as a maritime incident.

### The American response of June 26

On **June 26, 2026**, the **United States Central Command (CENTCOM)** responded with what it described as a "powerful response": strikes against Iranian missile and drone storage sites, as well as coastal radars. The targets were located along the Strait of Hormuz and on **Qeshm Island**. The military logic was one of degrading Iran's maritime strike capabilities — not a massive deterrence strike, but a proportionate and documented response, designed to show that each attack on commercial traffic would carry a direct military cost for Iran.

Trump described the Iranian attack as a "clear violation" of the ceasefire on social media: "Obviously, this is a foolish violation of our ceasefire agreement." On paper, the American response was consistent with the doctrine he had established. But in practice, each action-reaction cycle carried the risk of uncontrolled escalation that neither Washington nor Tehran seemed to have a solid mechanism to stop once set in motion.

*CENTCOM struck with precision and restraint. But restraint in a war where the ceasefire has already been broken looks dangerously like an invitation to try again. Iran reads every proportionate strike as proof that Washington does not want total escalation — which leaves it room for initiative that deterrence logic is supposed to close. Something is not working in the equation.*

## June 27 — Iran strikes Kuwait and Bahrain

### Missiles and drones aimed at American bases

On **June 27, 2026**, Iran escalated further. The **Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)** launched a combined missile-drone operation against American military installations in **Kuwait** and **Bahrain**. In **Kuwait**, the military intercepted two ballistic missiles — no damage, no casualties. In **Bahrain**, home to the **US Fifth Fleet**, sirens sounded. Authorities reported that an Iranian drone had damaged a residential building in the **Muharraq** province. No American casualties were officially reported — but the symbolic weight of attacking a US naval base in an allied Gulf country was unmistakable.

The **IRGC** justified the attack by claiming that the American strikes of **June 26** had violated the ceasefire, and that its response would aim to "completely halt all diplomatic processes." The IRGC navy threatened that US bases in the region would "know hell in the days ahead." This was no longer a maritime incident. It was a deliberate escalation on the territory of two sovereign states — and a direct test of the resilience of American alliances in the Gulf.

### Trump threatens the very existence of the Islamic Republic

**Trump**'s reaction was swift. In a message that would circulate through every world capital overnight, he wrote: "There may come a point when we are no longer able to be reasonable, and will be forced to militarily complete the job that we very successfully started." Then, in terms no American president had used so directly in decades: "If that happens, the **Islamic Republic of Iran** will no longer exist!" This was not a diplomatic warning. It was a public existential threat, uncoordinated with allies, that potentially closed diplomatic off-ramps for Tehran.

Publicly questioning the very existence of a regime while claiming to want a peace agreement creates a fundamental contradiction. Iran cannot negotiate its survival under such a threat without losing face domestically — which makes any deal harder, not easier, to reach. **Trump**'s rhetoric, however sincerely deterrent in intent, objectively complicates the task of diplomats trying to keep the **June 18** framework alive.

*Threatening to annihilate a regime while trying to sign a peace agreement with it is psychologically coherent for a domestic American audience — and strategically counterproductive in a negotiation where the other party must be able to go home with something. Trump is a necessary evil in the Western balance of power. But on this precise file, his rhetoric of annihilation masks his exit strategy.*

## The Strait of Hormuz — Tehran's "golden card"

### Why Iran will not relinquish the strait without compensation

The **Institute for the Study of War (ISW)** documented in its special report of **June 27, 2026** that Iran uses the **Strait of Hormuz** as a "golden card" of negotiation in all its interactions with Washington. Iran's reasoning is that of a rational actor that has identified its maximum leverage: the strait is an irreplaceable maritime route for roughly **20 to 21 percent** of the world's oil. Closing the strait or making transit uncertain immediately drives oil prices higher, affects the global economy, and puts maximum political pressure on Washington to negotiate.

The traffic separation scheme Iran is trying to impose is the concrete expression of that logic: if ships use the Iranian route, they implicitly recognize Iranian sovereignty over the strait. That is a geopolitical validation that cannot be bought with lifted sanctions or nuclear guarantees. The **IMO** and **Oman** had announced on **June 23** a joint effort to transit hundreds of blocked vessels via a secured route along the Omani coast. Iran attacked on **June 25** precisely to interrupt that effort — the message was clear.

### The blockade of the northern route versus the southern route

The core operational dispute is not theoretical. There are two routes through the strait. The northern route passes through Iranian waters and falls under its control scheme, with toll-taking attempts that **Trump** had explicitly condemned on social media on **June 24**. The southern route follows the Omani coast — promoted by **Washington** as a safe alternative to Iranian dominance. The **Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC)** had widened the southern route on **June 27** to allow simultaneous two-way traffic. But as soon as ships used it, like the **Ever Lovely**, Iran attacked them.

For **the West** and its Asian partners dependent on Gulf oil, this is an existential concern. **CMA CGM** — one of the world's largest shipping companies — had sailed its container ship **Galapagos** out of the strait, calling the event "a significant milestone in a regional context that remains complex." Hundreds of other vessels remained on hold. Every day of blockage or uncertainty translated into global supply chain disruption and cumulative economic pressure that neither Europe nor Asia could absorb indefinitely.

*The Strait of Hormuz is not a regional problem. It is a problem for commercial civilization. When Iran attacks a cargo ship to contest a maritime route, it is not attacking the safety of a single vessel — it is attacking the very logic of free global trade. The West cannot accept that vital commercial routes be subject to the unilateral veto of an armed theocratic regime.*

## Diplomatic expulsions — Kuwait and Bahrain harden their stance

### Persona non grata: the Gulf's formal signal

In response to Iranian attacks on their territory, both **Kuwait** and **Bahrain** took formal diplomatic steps. **Kuwait** summoned the Iranian chargé d'affaires and declared two Iranian diplomats **persona non grata** for what it called "ongoing aggression." The Kuwaiti government reported that its armed forces had been required to intercept **13 ballistic missiles** and **17 drones** from Iran, with debris falling in several residential areas. **Bahrain** had requested that the **UN Security Council** hold an emergency session to hold Iran accountable.

These expulsions are not empty symbolic acts. They represent a formal rupture in the bilateral diplomatic relations of two Gulf states with Tehran — states that had until now attempted to keep lines of communication open, often against American pressure. The decision to declare Iranian diplomats **persona non grata** sends a clear signal to the **Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)** and Washington: Gulf states are no longer willing to absorb Iranian attacks without a formal political response. This hardening of posture limits Tehran's diplomatic options in the region.

### The GCC in battle formation

**GCC Secretary General Jasem Mohamed Albudaiwi** condemned the Iranian attacks as a "dangerous and unprecedented escalation," stating that they "reflect the Iranian regime's insistence on pursuing hostile policies that target the security, stability, and sovereignty" of member states. This collective **GCC** statement is significant: it marks an explicit alignment of the Arab Gulf with the American position against Iran, at precisely the moment Tehran was trying to fragment that alignment by selectively attacking member states.

On **June 25**, the **GCC** and the **United States** had explicitly rejected any Iranian attempt to exercise control over the strait, including the collection of tolls. It was that joint declaration that Iran cited as justification for the attack on the **Ever Lovely** the same day. The sequence is telling: a firm multilateral declaration, followed by an Iranian attack on a civilian vessel that very day. Iran was not testing American resolve. It was testing the collective resolve of the Western order in the Gulf.

*The diplomatic expulsions by Kuwait and Bahrain are a pivotal moment that has been largely underestimated in media coverage of this crisis. These are countries that had always preferred discretion over confrontation with Tehran. Seeing them take such severe formal measures says something important about the depth of the trust breakdown in the region. Iran has exhausted the patience of its immediate neighbors.*

## The verbal ceasefire of June 28 — fragile and contested

### A spoken agreement that cannot withstand the facts

On the evening of **June 28, 2026**, diplomatic sources were pointing to a verbal ceasefire — a halt to active hostilities without a signed text or verification mechanism. This fragile construct followed the **June 18** agreement, which had itself been violated in seven days. Talks in **Qatar** had been mentioned by American officials as a possible next step — but Iran denied they were being organized, which placed the American announcement in an uncomfortable zone of diplomatic ambiguity. Who was telling the truth in these conditions was impossible to determine from the outside.

Vice President **JD Vance** and Iranian parliament speaker **Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf** had conducted talks in **Switzerland** a week before hostilities resumed. Those negotiations had produced the **14-point framework** of **June 18**. But a 14-point agreement between two governments is only worth something if the military actors on the ground — notably the **IRGC**, which operates with considerable autonomy — feel bound by the commitments of the civilian government. Iran's decision-making structure, with its multiple centers of power, makes the coherence of its foreign policy structurally uncertain.

### The ISW and the architecture of Iranian control

The **ISW** documented in its **June 27** report that Hormuz is a "golden card" precisely because its strategic value to Iran is not conditional on any specific agreement: it is permanent. As long as Iran controls or can threaten the strait, it holds leverage over the global economy that allows it to negotiate from a position of relative strength even against American military power. This asymmetry of leverage explains why successive ceasefires produce no lasting peace: the incentive structure that drives Iran to use its leverage does not disappear with a verbal agreement.

Iranian foreign minister **Abbas Araqchi** had declared that the responsibility for returning maritime traffic to pre-war levels in the strait rested "solely with Tehran" and urged others not to interfere in "Iran's administration of the strait." That formulation constitutes a de facto sovereignty claim over an international waterway — a position legally unacceptable under international maritime law and politically unacceptable to the **United States**, the **European Union**, and Asian maritime powers.

*A verbal ceasefire between parties that do not trust each other, without a verification mechanism, in a strait where the next provocation can come within hours — that is less a peace agreement than a tactical pause. Iran has used every pause in this conflict to reposition its capabilities. No one in Washington should ignore that.*

## The impact on maritime traffic and energy prices

### Hundreds of vessels blocked, prices fluctuating

The economic impact of the Strait of Hormuz crisis over the **June 26–28, 2026** period was immediate and measurable. Hundreds of vessels blocked in or around the strait had begun to move in the two weeks before the attack on the **Ever Lovely**, taking advantage of the **June 18** agreement. After the attack and the American strikes, that newly restored flow was interrupted. Oil prices, which had "converged toward pre-war levels" according to sources cited by **Reuters**, rebounded under the weight of renewed uncertainty. Maritime insurers immediately raised their premiums for any transit through the strait.

For the global economy — and particularly for Asian countries like **Japan**, **South Korea**, and **India** that are heavily dependent on Gulf oil imports — every day of uncertainty in the strait is a direct economic cost. The European Union, already under economic strain after years of war in Ukraine, cannot indefinitely absorb an energy premium caused by Iranian instability. This global economic pressure is a factor that should, in theory, push toward resolution. In practice, it also serves as leverage for Iran to force concessions.

### The world fleet caught in the crossfire

Shipping giant **CMA CGM** had described the departure of its container ship **Galapagos** from the strait as "a significant milestone" while stressing "a context that remains complex and requires constant vigilance." That diplomatically cautious formulation from one of the world's largest carriers says everything that needs to be said: global commercial companies are navigating institutionalized uncertainty, unable to plan long-term routes in a zone where an agreement can be violated within seven days. The risk premium they embed in their prices ripples through to every global consumer of manufactured goods shipped by sea.

The **IMO** had suspended its safe corridor effort on **June 26**, after the attack on the **Ever Lovely**. Suspending a UN maritime security program less than a week after it launched is a clear indicator of how deep this crisis runs. The intergovernmental organization responsible for global maritime safety is unable to guarantee safe routes in a zone where a member state is deliberately attacking civilian vessels. That is a failure of the international governance architecture that the US-Iran conflict is exposing with brutality.

*The IMO suspending its safety corridor after six days, CMA CGM calling a successful crossing a "significant milestone" — you get a sense of how badly the standards of international navigation have been degraded by this conflict. What was the norm just a year ago — passing freely through an international strait — has become a remarkable achievement. That is a civilizational regression the West should not accept.*

## The architecture of the war — a chronology in acceleration

### From February 28 to June 28: four months that changed the Middle East

The war between the United States, Israel, and Iran had begun on **February 28, 2026** with a joint American-Israeli bombing campaign in Iran. Over four months, the fighting had caused thousands of casualties, killed **13 American servicemembers**, and thrown the global economy into turmoil. Iran had largely closed the **Strait of Hormuz** for most of the conflict — a decision with immediate global economic consequences. Indirect and then direct talks had led to the **June 18** framework — signed, then violated within a week.

The **June 26–28** sequence is not an isolated incident. It fits a documented pattern: agreement, violation by Iran, American response, Iranian threats, partial escalation, verbal ceasefire, repetition. This cycle is not the product of a miscalculation. It is the product of an incentive structure in which Iran judges that testing the limits of an agreement costs less than respecting one that would require it to give up control of the strait. Understanding that calculation is a precondition for any attempt to change it.

### Israel, Lebanon, and the regional arc of crisis

The **Strait of Hormuz** crisis is unfolding in parallel with a broader regional arc of crisis. In **Lebanon**, successive ceasefires between **Israel** and **Hezbollah** had had limited effect: Israel insisted on not withdrawing from seized Lebanese territory, while Hezbollah refused to lay down its weapons as long as Israeli troops remained in place. The **ISW** had documented on **June 26** that Iranian foreign minister **Araqchi** was explicitly linking Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon to the conditions of the agreement with Washington — a way of connecting the two fronts and multiplying Iran's negotiating leverage.

This link between the Iranian front, the Lebanese front, and the Strait of Hormuz reveals Tehran's strategy in its full complexity: maintain several open fronts simultaneously to maximize negotiating power, force Washington to make compromises on multiple files at once, and prevent any sectoral agreement that would settle issues one by one. It is a strategy of exhaustion that bets on the fact that American democracy, with its political cycles and internal economic pressures, cannot indefinitely maintain a high-pressure posture on all fronts simultaneously.

*Iran plays on multiple boards simultaneously — Hormuz, Lebanon, militias in Iraq and Syria — with a strategic coherence that the West struggles to match in its response. This is not military genius. It is strategic persistence. And the West, fragmented between its Ukrainian, Chinese, and Middle Eastern priorities, has difficulty maintaining coherent pressure across all these fronts. That is the weakness Iran is exploiting.*

## Washington between deterrence and negotiation — the impossible tension

### Striking and negotiating simultaneously

**Washington**'s position in this conflict illustrates a fundamental tension: striking Iran militarily to maintain deterrence credibility, while simultaneously negotiating with it to achieve a durable peace. These two objectives are not contradictory in theory — strike precisely to make the cost of violations high enough, while offering an honorable diplomatic off-ramp. But in practice, every American strike is used by the **IRGC** to justify new attacks, creating a cycle that feeds escalation rather than slowing it.

**Trump**'s rhetoric — threatening the annihilation of the Islamic Republic on social media — further complicates this equation. A regime that feels existentially threatened has less incentive to negotiate in good faith: any agreement it signs could be interpreted domestically as a capitulation that weakens its legitimacy. The **Revolutionary Guards**, whose grip on Iranian power is structural, have every reason to maintain a state of crisis that justifies their role and their resources. Iran's internal dynamics are a factor Washington cannot ignore in its strategy.

### JD Vance, the Swiss talks, and the 14-point framework

The talks conducted by Vice President **JD Vance** in **Switzerland**, a week before hostilities resumed, had produced the **14-point framework** of **June 18**. That framework covered three main areas: an end to fighting, reopening of the strait, and the opening of negotiations on the nuclear program and sanctions within **60 days**. The lifting of certain sanctions by **Washington** had accompanied the agreement — a good-faith signal that Iran immediately exploited as proof that pressure was working, without translating it into lasting respect for the ceasefire.

The central question raised by this partial failure is one of verifiability and enforcement. A ceasefire agreement with no third-party verification mechanism, no interposition forces, and no automatic and pre-established consequences for violations is structurally fragile. The international community — and particularly the **European Union** — bears direct responsibility for building a credible monitoring mechanism. The absence of such a mechanism is not an inadvertent omission. It is a gap that reflects the collective inability to impose the conditions of lasting peace on an actor that has not abandoned its ambitions for regional control.

*Negotiating without a verification mechanism is building on sand. JD Vance did real diplomatic work in Switzerland — and the June 18 agreement was a genuine step forward. But without third-party verification capacity and without pre-defined automatic consequences, the first actor that judges violation to be in its interest can act with impunity. Iran made that calculation in seven days.*

## Europe in this conflict — absent from the levers, present in the costs

### An exposed bystander bearing all the risks

**Europe** watched the **June 26–27** crossfire with palpable economic anxiety. Its energy prices, already under pressure from the war in Ukraine, were taking another hit. Its commercial routes to Asia via the **Suez Canal** and the **Strait of Hormuz** were compromised again. Yet Europe was structurally absent from the diplomatic or military levers of this conflict: no military forces engaged, no formal participation in **JD Vance**'s talks, no rapid-response mechanism. Presidents **Macron** and **Meloni** had mentioned a possible naval mission in the **Sea of Oman** "if conditions were met" — without those conditions taking clearer shape.

This relative powerlessness of Europe in a conflict directly affecting its economic and energy interests is a lesson in strategic autonomy that the **Old Continent** still refuses to fully integrate into its real capabilities. Declaring that Europe must be a geopolitical power is not the same as being one. That requires power-projection military capabilities, rapid decision-making mechanisms, and a political willingness to take risks that the current European consensus does not yet permit. The Hormuz crisis is a brutal reminder of that.

### Macron, Meloni, and the aborted naval mission

The signals sent by presidents **Macron** and **Meloni** about a possible naval mission in the **Sea of Oman** deserve particular attention. It is the first time since the conflict began that European leaders explicitly mentioned a direct military contribution to securing Iranian maritime routes. This evolution — even conditional and unconfirmed — reflects a growing awareness that European economic interests in freedom of navigation cannot be indefinitely delegated to the United States.

But "availability if conditions were met" is a formulation that says as much through what it leaves unsaid as through what it asserts. What conditions? Who defines them? What mandate? What integration with the American chain of command in the Gulf? These questions — left publicly unanswered — are the sign of European strategic autonomy still at the stage of political aspiration, not operational capability. For Europe to be a credible actor in a future Gulf crisis, concrete decisions will be needed — not conditional availability.

*France and Italy sent a signal. That is something — and it is clearly more courageous than silence. But between signaling conditional availability and projecting a credible naval force into contested waters, there is an abyss of capability and political will that Europe will have to cross one day. The Hormuz crisis is a useful warning. I hope it will be heard.*

## The limits of international law — when sovereignty is contested by force

### An international strait claimed as national waters

Iran's claim to control the **Strait of Hormuz** — including the right to impose tolls and define navigation routes — directly contradicts international maritime law, notably the **United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)**, which guarantees the right of innocent passage through international straits. This contradiction is not new: Iran has never ratified UNCLOS and has for decades disputed the Western interpretation of its coastal rights in the strait.

What the **2026** conflict reveals with brutal clarity is that international law without a credible enforcement mechanism is an aspiration, not a guarantee. Iran can attack civilian vessels in an international strait, expel UN missions from it, and claim tolls on a waterway whose status as an international strait is established — and the immediate practical sanction remains limited to American military strikes and Gulf diplomatic expulsions. The international community has no collective enforcement mechanism that functions against an actor resolved to defy its norms.

### The ISW statement on the Israel-Lebanon tripartite framework

On **June 26, 2026**, the **US State Department** published the full text of the **Israel-Lebanon-United States Tripartite Framework** — a **14-clause** document seeking the disarmament of non-state groups in Lebanon, particularly Hezbollah. The fourth clause required the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to fully disarm all non-state groups. The seventh clause confirmed the right to self-defense of both Israel and Lebanon. The eleventh clause stipulated that the United States and Lebanon would restrict the flow of funds to entities affiliated with Lebanese non-state armed groups.

This ambitious framework immediately ran into ground-level reality. The **IRGC** had declared as early as **June 27** that continued Israeli military action in Lebanon constituted a violation of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding — explicitly linking the two conflicts. **Fadlallah**, a Hezbollah figure, had stated on **June 26** that Iran would sign no agreement with the United States as long as Israel had not fully withdrawn its troops from Lebanese territory. These linked positions create a negotiating architecture in which every advance on one front can be blocked by a demand on another.

*A tripartite framework with 14 clauses, a US-Iran memorandum, a 14-point ceasefire agreement, talks in Switzerland, discussions announced in Qatar — I count at least four simultaneous diplomatic frameworks, none of which has authority over the others. This is not variable-geometry diplomacy. It is parallel diplomacy without a center of gravity. Architectures of this complexity collapse under their own weight.*

## Ukraine in context — how Moscow reads the Hormuz crisis

### A strategic dividend for Russia

The **Strait of Hormuz** crisis and the **US-Iran** crossfire have an observer who is anything but neutral: **Moscow**. Every day that **Washington** devotes to the Middle East — negotiating with Tehran, planning strikes on Iranian sites — is a day of diminished strategic attention on the Ukrainian conflict. **Russia** has a direct interest in the Iranian crisis dragging on and deepening: it divides American attention, consumes military resources, and creates a window of tactical opportunity on the Ukrainian front while the United States manages an additional theater.

The **Iran-Russia** axis is not simply a coincidence of circumstantial interests. **Iran** provided **Shahed** drones to **Russia** that have terrorized Ukrainian cities. **Russia** has provided Iran with diplomatic cover at the **Security Council** and missile technologies. In the context of the late June **2026** crossfire, it is reasonable to assess — without being able to document it directly — that Moscow was watching the escalation with satisfaction and working actively to prevent Washington from finding a crisis exit too quickly, one that would allow it to refocus its attention on Ukraine.

### North Korea as the third variable

The **Iran-Russia-North Korea** triangle is a geopolitical reality that the Hormuz strikes bring sharply into focus. **North Korea** has supplied artillery ammunition and soldiers to **Russia**. It watches Iran's ability to hold its own militarily against the **United States** with calculating interest. Pyongyang draws lessons from every conflict involving actors that militarily challenge Washington — particularly regarding the use of asymmetric attack drones, short-range ballistic missiles, and graduated escalation doctrine. The US-Iran conflict is a school of war that **North Korea** is studying carefully.

For **Ukraine** and its Western partners, this interconnection between theaters — Hormuz, Ukraine, the Korean peninsula — is a strategic reality that Western collective defense doctrine must integrate. **NATO** and its Indo-Pacific partners face an informal but functional alliance of revisionist powers that coordinate their pressure across different fronts simultaneously. Responding front by front is insufficient. What is needed is a coalition strategy that addresses the coordinated threat in its entirety.

*While Washington negotiates with Tehran in Qatar, Moscow bombs Kyiv. While CENTCOM strikes Iranian sites, Pyongyang restocks Russian artillery depots. These three crises are not independent. They are branches of the same strategy of contesting the Western order by revisionist powers that have learned to coordinate without formally contracting. The West does not yet have an equivalent coordinated response.*

## Perspectives — what the coming weeks signal

### The 60-day countdown

The **June 18, 2026** agreement gave negotiators **60 days** to make progress on Iran's nuclear program and American sanctions. Factoring in the disruptions of **June 26–28**, that countdown was now conditional on the holding of a ceasefire that had already been violated once. If talks were indeed held in **Qatar** — something neither party was confirming coherently at the time — the agenda would be loaded: durable reopening of the strait, verification of Iranian military positions, architecture for navigation monitoring, and a nuclear framework.

The conditions for a lasting agreement remain difficult to meet. Iran demands security guarantees that only total diplomatic normalization could provide — something the American political context makes impossible in the short term. The United States demands sufficient dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program to reassure Israel — something the Iranian regime cannot accept without compromising its strategic deterrent. That equation did not change with the strait strikes. It simply reasserted itself with renewed urgency.

### The least likely exit scenario

A durable exit scenario — a comprehensive agreement covering the nuclear program, sanctions, the strait, and the militias — would require a convergence of political wills that the events of **June 26–28** made less likely, not more. Iran emerged from those days in a perceived position of tactical strength: it had attacked civilian vessels, struck American bases, and obtained a verbal ceasefire without any major documented concession. If its internal calculation is that violence pays, there is no immediate reason for it to change strategy.

For **the West**, the operational lesson is clear: deterrence must be credible, visible, and systematic — not reactive and proportionate after each incident. The American strikes of **June 26** degraded Iranian capabilities but did not change Tehran's strategic calculus. Changing it will require either economic and military pressure high enough that the cost of conflict exceeds Iran's tactical benefits, or a diplomatic offer substantial enough that peace becomes a preferable option to the strait strategy. Neither path is in sight in the short term.

*I have no good news to offer here. The US-Iran conflict around Hormuz has no clear horizon. It has cycles — escalation, ceasefire, violation, escalation — where each iteration erodes a little more the confidence that formal agreements can hold. What I fear is that habituation to these cycles will end up blunting Western vigilance at precisely the moment Iran takes the step too far.*

## Iran's nuclear program — the stake that conditions everything

### 60 days to defuse a diplomatic bomb

The **June 18, 2026** agreement gave negotiators **60 days** to address Iran's nuclear program and American sanctions. That agenda is the real heart of the conflict — far more so than the maritime incidents, which are merely symptoms. **Iran** has been enriching uranium to near-weapon-grade levels for years, under cover of geopolitical tensions. In **2026**, according to open assessments from the **IAEA**, Iran was said to be weeks away from weapons-making capability if the political decision were taken. It is that proximity that gives the regime its sense of strategic security — and that makes any negotiation extraordinarily complex, because Iran will not negotiate the dismantlement of its insurance policy without equivalent survival guarantees.

For **Israel** — a central actor in the genesis of this conflict — the **June 18** agreement without a credible nuclear dismantlement mechanism amounts to financing the problem rather than solving it. The Israeli government had supported the initial strikes of **February 28** precisely because it judged that diplomacy had reached its limits. The resumption of hostilities at the end of June lent retroactive credibility to that pessimistic assessment. **Europe**, moderate **United States** voices, and Gulf allies face a structural dilemma: a nuclear deal without Israel is politically unsellable in **Washington**, but a deal with Israel imposes conditions Iran cannot accept without threatening its own regime.

*Iran's nuclear program is the elephant in every negotiating room for the past twenty years. You can build as many ceasefire frameworks as you like around the Strait of Hormuz — as long as the nuclear question is unresolved, Tehran will always hold an ultimate deterrence lever that makes its confrontational policy rational from its perspective. And as long as that lever exists, a lasting agreement will remain out of reach.*

### Washington and the lifted sanctions — a signal that backfired

**Washington**'s decision to lift certain Iranian sanctions as part of the **June 18** agreement was a good-faith gesture — and a diplomatic bet. That bet rested on the assumption that access to additional economic resources would give the Iranian government an incentive to maintain peace. In practice, the attack on the **Ever Lovely** seven days later allowed its critics — and they are numerous in **Washington** — to argue that lifting the sanctions had enriched the regime without changing its behavior. That debate is thirty years old in American policy toward Iran. It is not resolved by the strait events. It is simply reformulated.

Vice President **JD Vance**, the architect of the Swiss talks, must defend results before an American political class watching an agreement violated in a week. This domestic political pressure in the United States — which favors durability and solidity of agreements over speed — is a structural factor that Iranian negotiators understand and use. The more the negotiating window is perceived as politically precarious in Washington, the less incentive Iran has to make costly concessions now. It can wait for the next election cycle and recalibrate.

*Lifting sanctions as a good-faith signal is a legitimate diplomatic tool. But it must be conditional on verifiable results, not verbal promises. Offering economic resources to a regime without a mechanism to verify its commitments is financing its next pressure cycle. Diplomatic generosity without a verification architecture is not diplomacy. It is optimism.*

## Conclusion: The strait that holds the world's breath

### A structural crisis, not an incident

The crossfire of **June 26 and 27, 2026** between the **United States** and **Iran** around the **Strait of Hormuz** is not a bump in the road of a peace process on track. It is the manifestation of an unresolved structural contradiction: Iran wants control of the strait as the condition of its strategic security. The United States, its Gulf allies, and the international maritime community refuse that claim as incompatible with international law and freedom of navigation. That contradiction will not disappear with a verbal ceasefire or even a formal **14-point** agreement. It requires either the capitulation of one side, or an international governance framework for the strait that no one has yet seriously proposed.

For **Ukraine** and its allies watching this crisis from Kyiv, there is a direct lesson: authoritarian powers — **Iran**, **Russia**, **China**, **North Korea** — are coordinating their pressure on the international order in a way designed to exhaust the West's response capacity across multiple fronts simultaneously. **The West** must develop a response that addresses that coordination. The fragmentation of Western responses — Hormuz here, Ukraine there, Taiwan elsewhere — is the weakness these regimes exploit with a strategic persistence that democracies struggle to match over time.

### What history will remember about June 25, 2026

On **June 25, 2026**, Iran attacked the **M/V Ever Lovely** — seven days after signing a peace agreement. That act will say, for history, what value Tehran places on formal commitments when they constrain its ambitions for regional control. It will also say something about the architecture of peace agreements in a world where armed non-state actors — the **IRGC** — operate with enough autonomy to violate what the civilian government has signed. And it will say, finally, something about the vigilance the **West** must maintain toward regimes that sign and violate in the same breath — not out of diplomatic incompetence, but by deliberate strategic calculation.

The **Strait of Hormuz** will remain at the center of global geopolitics as long as Iran maintains its regional hegemonic ambitions and as long as Gulf oil fuels the world's economies. Finding a durable governance framework for this vital passage is one of the most urgent geopolitical challenges of our time. The crossfire of late June **2026** reminds us that urgency does not wait for us to be ready.

**By Maxime Marquette, columnist**

## Columnist's transparency note

### Editorial stance

I am not a journalist but a **columnist and analyst**. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies.

I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. **I claim analytical clarity**, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events.

### Method and sources

This text keeps the basic distinction between **verified facts and interpretive analysis**. The rule never changes: a factual claim is published only when a verifiable source supports it, and the sources this article actually used are listed under **Sources**, never here.

**Primary source families** used by the publication, when the story has them: official statements from governments and international institutions, public statements by political leaders, reports from intergovernmental organisations, dispatches from recognised international news agencies.

**Secondary source families**: specialised publications, internationally recognised news media, analyses from established research institutions, reports from industry organisations.

When an article cites statistical, economic or geopolitical data, it comes from the institutions that produce it (intergovernmental organisations, central banks, national statistics offices), and the exact institution is named under **Sources**.

### Nature of the analysis

The analyses, interpretations and perspectives in the analytical sections of this article are a **critical, contextual synthesis** based on the information available, the trends observed and the expert comments cited in the sources consulted.

My role is to interpret these facts, to set them in the context of today's geopolitical and economic dynamics, and to give them a coherent meaning within the larger story of the changes shaping our time. These analyses reflect expertise built through continuous observation of international affairs and an understanding of the strategic mechanisms that drive global actors.

This article describes a documented state of affairs on its publication date, not a prediction: later developments may shift its outlook. No update is promised in advance; when an article is corrected or completed, the change is dated in the text.

## Sources

### Primary sources

- [CENTCOM — U.S. Strikes Iran in Response to Attack on Commercial Vessel — June 26, 2026](https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PUBLIC-RELEASES/Article/4528341/us-strikes-iran-in-response-to-attack-on-commercial-vessel/)

- [Reuters — U.S. conducts further strikes on Iran — June 27, 2026](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-conducts-further-strikes-iran-2026-06-27/)

- [ISW — Iran Update Special Report, June 27, 2026 — June 27, 2026](https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-special-report-june-27-2026/)

- [NPR — US strikes Iran — June 27, 2026](https://www.npr.org/2026/06/27/nx-s1-5872954/us-strikes-iran)

### Secondary sources

- [USA Today — US military strikes Iran in retaliation for drone attack on commercial ship — June 26, 2026](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2026/06/26/us-strikes-iran-strait-of-hormuz/90715201007/)

- [Iran International — Kuwait expels two Iranian diplomats over ongoing aggressions — June 3, 2026 (expulsions context)](https://www.iranintl.com/en/202606038384)

- [Al Jazeera — Continuous coverage of the US-Iran Hormuz conflict — June 2026](https://www.aljazeera.com/)

- [The Guardian — International coverage of US-Iran strikes — June 2026](https://www.theguardian.com/international)

---

Source: Maxime Marquette, MadMax. When citing, name the author and link https://mad-max.co/en/article/decryptage-frappes-croisees-us-iran-autour-d-ormuz-le-cessez-le-feu-au-bord-du-g