# DECODING: 5% of GDP on Defense by 2035 — NATO Faces Its Historic Bill

> In 2025, at the Hague summit, NATO leaders adopted an objective that had seemed unthinkable to many of them: dedicating 5% of GDP to defense by 2035. A bold figure, obtained under the combined pressure of Donald Trump and the raw reality of the war in Ukraine. But a promise without a credible trajectory is merely a wish. This is precisely what the Ankara summit, scheduled for J

- Author: Maxime Marquette
- Publisher: MadMax (https://mad-max.co)
- Section: Analysis
- Published: 2026-06-29
- Canonical URL: https://mad-max.co/en/article/decryptage-5-du-pib-en-defense-d-ici-2035-l-otan-face-a-sa-facture-historique

## Introduction: The Number That Changes Everything in Western Defense Geopolitics

### From The Hague to Ankara: from commitments to proof

In **2025**, at the **Hague** summit, **NATO** leaders adopted an objective that had seemed unthinkable to many of them: dedicating **5% of GDP to defense by 2035**. A bold figure, obtained under the combined pressure of **Donald Trump** and the raw reality of the war in **Ukraine**. But a promise without a credible trajectory is merely a wish. This is precisely what the **Ankara** summit, scheduled for **July 7–8, 2026**, must transform into concrete demonstration.

NATO Secretary General **Mark Rutte** presented figures before the **Atlantic Council** on **June 25, 2026** that mark the difference between rhetoric and reality: between **2016 and 2026**, European allies and **Canada** spent **$1.2 trillion more** on defense. In **2025** alone, the increase amounted to **$139 billion additional** — a rise of nearly **20% in a single year**. This is no longer salon politics. It is a **budgetary revolution**.

### The structure of the 5%: two distinct tranches

The **5% of GDP** figure is not a homogeneous aggregate. **Rutte** explained this in his **Washington** address: the objective breaks down into **3.5% for core defensive needs** — direct military capabilities, equipment, personnel — and **1.5% for resilience and critical infrastructure** — cybersecurity, energy resilience, communications network protection, civil preparedness. This architecture is not arbitrary: it reflects operational lessons drawn from four years of war in **Ukraine**.

This breakdown anchors the objective in a concrete doctrine, developed under the leadership of **Jens Stoltenberg** before **Rutte** succeeded him. The figure was not chosen arbitrarily: it is the product of an in-depth analysis of what is needed to defend NATO's eastern flank against the Russian threat, while maintaining sufficient civil resilience to withstand hybrid attacks.

*$1.2 trillion extra over ten years — that is more than South Korea's annual GDP. These figures are staggering and yet underreported. While public debates focus on Trump's statements, the real European defense revolution is happening in national budget lines. It is there, in those quiet billions, that the future of Western security is decided.*

## Germany: The Unlikely Champion of European Rearmament

### Doubling military spending in less than a decade

Ten years ago, the idea that **Germany** would become the model of European rearmament would have seemed like a joke. The country of the **Sonderweg**, of post-**1945** military moderation culture, of **Ostpolitik** — rearming? And yet. **Rutte** cited the German example in his address at the **Atlantic Council**: **Berlin** is on track to **double its defense investments between 2021 and 2029**, reaching more than **€150 billion per year**.

This change is structural, not cyclical. The **Zeitenwende** — the historic turning point — proclaimed by Chancellor **Olaf Scholz** after the **2022** invasion has produced lasting budgetary effects. The emergency special fund of **€100 billion**, the massive orders for tanks, aircraft, and air defense systems — all of this now translates into real capabilities that allies can count on.

### Poland, the Baltics, the Nordics: the pioneers at 4 and 5%

But if **Germany** is the example of spectacular conversion, the real leaders are elsewhere. **Poland** already dedicates more than **4% of its GDP to defense** — the highest level in **NATO**. The **Baltic** countries — **Estonia**, **Latvia**, **Lithuania** — have long understood that their geographic proximity to **Russia** imposes high military expenditure. The **Nordic** countries, newly joined or consolidating their anchor in the **Alliance**, follow the same path.

These countries do not spend out of obedience to **Trump** — they spend because they share a border with **Russia** or lie less than an hour's flight from Russian forces. Their geographic realism should be a model for those in **Western Europe** who continue to treat defense as a compressible budget line.

*Poland at 4% of GDP on defense, while some Western European countries still negotiate to reach 2%. This asymmetry is not sustainable in the long term in an alliance supposedly based on shared responsibility. Those who benefit from security without paying a fair share undermine NATO's collective credibility.*

## The Reluctant: Who Still Needs to Convince Trump and Their Own Citizens?

### Belgium, Italy, Spain, Canada: laggards catching up

**Rutte** mentioned a notable fact in his address: all major allied economies — **Belgium**, **Italy**, **Spain**, **Canada** — have now reached the **2% of GDP** threshold. This was not the case until recently. The combined pressure of **Trump**, the war in **Ukraine**, and the evolving perception of threats has moved governments that seemed structurally incapable of increasing their military spending.

The path from **2%** to **5%** remains considerable, however. For a country like **Italy**, reaching **5% of GDP** in defense by **2035** would mean multiplying current spending by two and a half — a titanic budgetary effort requiring painful political choices: cuts in other areas, tax increases, or more borrowing. These trade-offs are politically explosive in democracies where social pressure on welfare budgets is intense.

### The domestic political dimension: selling defense to pacifist electorates

**Rutte** implicitly acknowledged this challenge by insisting on the economic argument: the defense industrial revolution **"will help our economies grow and support hundreds of thousands of jobs."** This is the only rhetorical framing that allows selling massive increases in military budgets to European public opinions that still associate defense spending with unproductive expenditure rather than strategic investment.

In **France**, **Germany**, and **Spain**, governments that must justify before parliament defense budget increases on the order of tens of billions of euros need arguments that transcend pure security rhetoric. Industrial jobs, innovation, technological competitiveness — these are the arguments that make the difference in national budget debates.

*Selling rearmament to European public opinion through industrial jobs — that is politically astute and economically sound. But I would prefer we also state the brutal truth: if Russia wins in Ukraine, the €2 trillion Europe will spend on defense over the next decade will still be insufficient. That is the real reason to spend. Not jobs. Survival.*

## Critical Infrastructure: The Forgotten but Vital 1.5%

### Cyberattacks, submarine cable sabotage, disinformation: the new frontiers of war

The **1.5% of GDP** tranche dedicated to resilience and critical infrastructure is often the least spectacular in media terms — no tanks to order, no missiles to buy — but it may be the most urgent given Russian hybrid threats. Since **2022**, submarine cables have been severed in the **Baltic Sea**, energy networks have been targeted by cyberattacks, and disinformation operations have been conducted at scale in nearly every European democracy.

These hybrid operations are less visible than cruise missiles, but they are permanent and their cost in terms of social and institutional cohesion is considerable. Civil preparedness — what Nordic countries call **"total defense"** — involves national resistance exercises, strategic stockpiles, government continuity plans, and public resilience education. This is what the **1.5%** is meant to finance.

### The EU and industrial resilience: rearmament as industrial policy

The **European Commission**'s **ReArm Europe** program fits directly into this logic: transforming the rearmament challenge into an opportunity for European industry. Rather than purchasing American weapons systems off the shelf, European governments are encouraged to develop their own industrial base, finance defense research and development, and build resilient production capabilities.

This approach has an economic and strategic logic: every euro spent on defense in a European factory stays in the European economy, creates European jobs, and develops technological skills with civilian applications. This is the argument **Rutte** articulated with force, and it resonates particularly in countries that tend to treat defense spending as consumption rather than investment.

*Submarine cables severed in the Baltic Sea, suspicious power grid outages, organized disinformation campaigns — this is the Russian hybrid war happening right now, before our eyes, in our own countries. The 1.5% for resilience is not a luxury. It is the invisible armor Europe needs to resist this silent war.*

## The Ankara Summit: Concrete Plans, Not Communiqués

### Billions in contracts as irrefutable signal

**Rutte**'s announcement that **tens of billions of dollars in new contracts** would be announced at **Ankara**'s **industry day** represents a significant evolution in what **NATO** summits produce. Historically, these meetings produced political declarations and communiqués. Now they also produce signed contracts — with arms manufacturers, munitions suppliers, cybersecurity companies.

This change reflects a new understanding of what collective security requires: not only political commitments, but **real financial flows** toward the defense industry. **NATO**'s credibility against **Russia** is measured not only by the number of its members or the grandiloquence of its declarations — it is measured by the material capabilities its members can deploy if necessary.

### The credible trajectory: more demanding than the initial promise

Rutte stressed the concept of a **"credible trajectory"** rather than instant arrival at **5%**. This distinction matters. The **Ankara** summit will not be the one where all allies declare they have reached the objective — several will not reach it before **2030**, let alone **2035**. But they will need to present detailed national plans, with intermediate milestones, contractual commitments, and accountability mechanisms.

The difference between **2016 and 2026** is precisely here: **NATO** has shifted from a culture of promises to a culture of delivery. The **20% increase** in spending in **2025** is not the result of a wish — it is the product of a change in governance and peer pressure mechanisms between allies that actually work.

*The difference between a promise and a credible trajectory is the accounting. When Rutte says allies are on the right track, he shows numbers — $139 billion extra in one year, $1.2 trillion over ten years. These numbers do not lie. And that, at bottom, is what frightens Moscow far more than speeches.*

## The Russian War Economy as Counterpoint: The Unsustainable

### 70% of tax revenues toward defense: the impossible equation

The contrast with Russia's situation is striking. While **NATO** is progressively increasing defense spending toward **5% of GDP** — a considerable but planned effort — **Russia** dedicates **40 to 50% of its federal budget** to defense, representing **more than 70% of its tax revenues**. This proportion is unsustainable over the long term in an economy not structured for permanent war economy.

The **Russian National Wealth Fund** is depleting. Inflation is eroding the purchasing power of the population. Refineries have seen production fall by one third according to data cited by **Rutte**. While the **West** invests in its defensive capacity with combined economies of **$70 trillion**, **Russia** is bleeding its reserves to finance a war whose economic costs it cannot sustain over the long term.

### Time as the West's strategic ally

This fundamental economic asymmetry is the most solid argument for a long-term support strategy for **Ukraine**. Not because **Russia** will collapse tomorrow — it has reserves and a capacity to withstand economic pressure higher than its adversaries sometimes hope. But because a supported **Ukraine** and a strengthened **NATO** can exert sustained economic and military pressure that **Russia** will not be able to absorb indefinitely.

The objective is not to destroy **Russia** — it is to make continuing this war more costly for it than peace. And for that, NATO's rearmament, the move toward **5% of GDP**, the **Ankara** contracts are strategic instruments consistent with a long-term vision of European security.

*Rutte says it unequivocally: Russia is in serious economic trouble. This is a reality the West undercommunicates. While Russia dedicates 70% of its tax revenues to war, we are investing 5% of our GDP to defend ourselves and support Ukraine. The arithmetic is relentless. Time is on our side — provided we do not grow weary too quickly.*

## AI and New Technologies: A Force Multiplier

### Spend less to strike more: the technological revolution

New technologies — **artificial intelligence**, drones, precision munitions, cyber defense systems — considerably increase the effectiveness of military forces without requiring proportional increases in personnel. An **AI** system like the British **Asgard** reduces the planning cycle from **72 hours to 60 minutes**, enabling ten times more operations with the same staff. This is an exceptional budgetary force multiplier making the **5%** objective more achievable.

Ukrainian drones have demonstrated that low-cost systems can neutralize equipment worth millions of dollars. This technological asymmetry is an opportunity for **NATO** members seeking to maximize the impact of every euro spent. Investing in military technological innovation can produce military effects equivalent to traditionally much higher spending levels, making the **5%** objective not only necessary but potentially transformative.

### Ukraine as a future pillar of European defense

If **Ukraine** joins **NATO** or remains a close strategic partner, its defense industry represents a considerable potential contribution. The **Vyrivnyuvach** guided bomb, developed in **17 months** at one third the American cost, the drone systems among the world's most advanced represent an industrial base that naturally fits into Europe's defense architecture. Supporting **Ukraine** purchases not only Ukrainian resistance, but also valuable operational data and a competitive defense industrial base.

The **European Commission** announced that the next financing framework for **Ukraine** for **2028–2034**, estimated at **€100 billion**, will be conditioned on strict reforms in rule of law and governance. This conditionality is healthy: it creates incentives for **Ukraine** to reform its institutions while receiving considerable financial support — a model of conditional aid that has proven itself.

*Ukraine as a future pillar of European defense — after four years of war and the Vyrivnyuvach bomb, this vision is no longer a utopia. It is a realistic projection on which Europe should build its long-term defense policy.*

## The Pedagogy of Threat: Convincing European Voters

### The jobs argument as a democratic lever

**Rutte** stressed a crucial aspect: military spending creates industrial jobs, stimulates innovation, and grows economies. For a Spanish prime minister or a German chancellor who must explain to voters why they are massively increasing military spending, this economic argument is essential. **Arms factories** in **Poland**, **Czechia**, and **Sweden** employ tens of thousands of people — skilled, well-paid jobs that constitute a tangible political argument.

But beyond jobs, there is a more fundamental truth: the cost of military weakness is war. **Russia** did not invade **Ukraine** because it thought it would be free — it did so because it calculated the cost would be bearable. Reversing this calculation is the objective of Western rearmament. And this objective is worth far more than any argument about industrial jobs or economic growth.

### Explaining the geographic proximity of the threat

Many Western Europeans have never shared a border with **Russia** and do not viscerally perceive the threat the way a **Pole**, an **Estonian**, or a **Finn** does. The pedagogy of threat — concretely explaining what geographic proximity to Russian military power means — is a responsibility of political leaders. **NATO**, through its secretary general, has taken this responsibility with a new clarity since **2022**.

This pedagogy also involves military exercises, visible troop deployments on the Alliance's eastern flank, and reporting on destruction in **Ukraine**. Every image of a destroyed Ukrainian city is, paradoxically, an argument for defense budgets in **Western Europe**. The reality of war speaks louder than any budget chart.

*When a French or Belgian citizen asks why their government is spending billions on defense, the answer should be: look at Kharkiv. Look at Mariupol. That is the reality of what happens when the West is weak and divided. That is the most honest pedagogy possible.*

## Conclusion: The Investment That Buys Peace or Prepares for It

### Five percent to avoid paying one hundred percent

The objective of **5% of GDP on defense** is not an end in itself — it is the price of deterrence. The reasoning is simple: if **NATO** members do not devote the necessary resources to credible defense, they invite aggressors to calculate that they can succeed at lower cost. Recent history demonstrates this: a **Europe** that had reduced its military capabilities after the **Cold War** did not prevent **Russia** from acting in **Ukraine**.

Dedicating **5% of GDP to defense** by **2035** represents a massive investment. But the cost of not having done so could prove infinitely higher — in human lives, economic destruction, and loss of freedom. The **$1.2 trillion** already invested since **2016** is a signal that the **West** has begun to understand this equation. **Ankara** must confirm that this signal is durable and irreversible.

### The generation that chooses to be strong

There is something historically significant in this moment: for the first time since the end of the **Cold War**, a European generation of political leaders is deliberately choosing to strengthen their countries' military capabilities, not because enemies are at the gates, but because they have understood — finally — that prevention is cheaper than reaction. This realization, however painful, is the most important legacy of the war in **Ukraine** for European security.

*Every euro invested in defense today is a euro that buys deterrence tomorrow. Europe in 2026 finally understands the truth that Poles and Balts have always known: freedom has a budgetary price. Paying that price now means refusing to pay it in blood later.*

**By Maxime Marquette, columnist**

## Columnist's transparency note

### Editorial stance

I am not a journalist but a **columnist and analyst**. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies.

I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. **I claim analytical clarity**, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events.

### Method and sources

This text keeps the basic distinction between **verified facts and interpretive analysis**. The rule never changes: a factual claim is published only when a verifiable source supports it, and the sources this article actually used are listed under **Sources**, never here.

**Primary source families** used by the publication, when the story has them: official statements from governments and international institutions, public statements by political leaders, reports from intergovernmental organisations, dispatches from recognised international news agencies.

**Secondary source families**: specialised publications, internationally recognised news media, analyses from established research institutions, reports from industry organisations.

When an article cites statistical, economic or geopolitical data, it comes from the institutions that produce it (intergovernmental organisations, central banks, national statistics offices), and the exact institution is named under **Sources**.

### Nature of the analysis

The analyses, interpretations and perspectives in the analytical sections of this article are a **critical, contextual synthesis** based on the information available, the trends observed and the expert comments cited in the sources consulted.

My role is to interpret these facts, to set them in the context of today's geopolitical and economic dynamics, and to give them a coherent meaning within the larger story of the changes shaping our time. These analyses reflect expertise built through continuous observation of international affairs and an understanding of the strategic mechanisms that drive global actors.

This article describes a documented state of affairs on its publication date, not a prediction: later developments may shift its outlook. No update is promised in advance; when an article is corrected or completed, the change is dated in the text.

## Sources

### Primary sources

- [NATO.int — Atlantic Council Front Page Conversation with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte — 2026-06-25](https://www.nato.int/fr/news-and-events/events/transcripts/2026/06/25/atlantic-council-front-page-conversation-with-nato-secretary-general-mark-rutte)

- [UNN — Rutte sent a message to Putin ahead of the NATO summit and announced billion-dollar defense deals — 2026-06-26](https://unn.ua/en/amp/rutte-sent-a-message-to-putin-before-the-nato-summit-and-announced-billion-dollar-defense-deals)

### Secondary sources

- [Straits Times — NATO's Rutte says billions in new defense contracts will be announced at summit — 2026-06-26](https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/natos-rutte-says-billions-in-new-defense-contracts-will-be-announced-at-summit)

- [Kuran Ansiklopedisi — 2026 Ankara NATO Summit — 2026-06-25](https://kureansiklopedi.com/en/detay/2026-ankara-nato-summit-a7089)

- [Ukrinform — NATO considering new €70B military aid package for Ukraine — 2026-06-06](https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/4131208-nato-considering-new-70b-military-aid-package-for-ukraine-politico.html)

- [The Guardian — NATO leaders fear they can no longer rely on US help if Russia attacks — 2026-06-27](https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2026/jun/27/nato-leaders-fear-they-can-no-longer-rely-on-us-help-if-russia-attacks-trump-eastern-europe)

- [BNP Paribas Economic Research — Rearm Europe: turning the challenge of rearmament into an opportunity — 2025-06-25](https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Rearm-Europe-turning-challenge-rearmament-into-opportunity-European-industry-growth-6/25/2025,51670)

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Source: Maxime Marquette, MadMax. When citing, name the author and link https://mad-max.co/en/article/decryptage-5-du-pib-en-defense-d-ici-2035-l-otan-face-a-sa-facture-historique