# COMMENTARY: The Russian Exemption Expired — Trump Tightens the Tap After Leaving It Wide Open

> On June 17, 2026, the United States let the third and final sanctions exemption on Russian oil expire without renewal. This ends a cycle of three successive 30-day waivers granted since March 12, 2026. For three months, the U.S. Treasury maintained a license permitting the trade of Russian oil on international markets, even as Ukraine was being bombed. The official justificatio

- Author: Maxime Marquette
- Publisher: MadMax (https://mad-max.co)
- Section: Commentary
- Published: 2026-06-29
- Canonical URL: https://mad-max.co/en/article/commentaire-l-exemption-russe-expiree-trump-resserre-le-robinet-apres-l-avoir-gr

## Introduction: Three Waivers, Three Months of Gifts to Putin

### June 17, 2026 — the date that ends an anomaly

On **June 17, 2026**, the United States let the third and final **sanctions exemption** on **Russian oil** expire without renewal. This ends a cycle of **three successive 30-day waivers** granted since **March 12, 2026**. For three months, the **U.S. Treasury** maintained a license permitting the trade of **Russian oil** on international markets, even as Ukraine was being bombed. The official justification: protecting energy-vulnerable nations.

In reality, these three months gave **Vladimir Putin** an extraordinary window of oil revenue. Russian crude oil exports went from **4.9 million barrels per day** in February to **6 million barrels per day** in May 2026. During the same period, **Russia** collected more than **$2 billion in additional revenue** thanks to rising energy prices. And those profits were used to fund attacks.

*Three consecutive waivers granted while Ukraine was burning under Russian drones. The Trump administration gave Putin exactly what he needed to fund his war — and then is surprised the war continues. The logic escapes me.*

## The $2 Billion That Fed the Drones

### The direct connection between oil and Ukrainian missiles

This is not speculation. **Olga Khakova**, senior non-resident fellow at the **Atlantic Council's Global Energy Center**, said it unambiguously: **"These exceptional profits funded an unprecedented scale of drone and missile attacks against Ukraine in the spring."** The causal link is direct. The **U.S. Treasury** was permitting trade in **Russian oil**. Russia was selling more oil. The revenue funded the attacks. Ukrainians died.

The figures for Russian oil exports speak for themselves. From **4.9 million b/d in February** to **5.5 million in March**, **5.6 million in April**, **6 million in May** — a steady progression across exactly the period covered by the American waivers. Treasury Secretary **Bessent** had justified the second and third waivers by the need to ensure energy supply for the **most vulnerable nations**. This is a legitimate argument in the abstract. In the reality of 2026 oil markets, with Iran now able to trade freely, it becomes considerably less convincing.

*Secretary Bessent said these waivers protected vulnerable nations. I am prepared to believe him. But when the two billion in additional profits end up in Putin's accounts to fund strikes on Kyiv, one can legitimately question the weighting of that cost-benefit analysis.*

## Shaheen and Warren: The Democrats Who Were Right

### June 16 — a warning issued on the eve of the expiration

On **June 16, 2026** — one day before the third waiver's expiration — Senators **Jeanne Shaheen** (Democrat-New Hampshire, senior member of the Foreign Relations Committee) and **Warren** (Democrat-Massachusetts) published a joint statement urging the Trump administration not to renew. Their formulation was precise: **"Extending this license one more time would give Vladimir Putin another opportunity to collect windfall profits while he continues his brutal war against Ukraine."**

The administration ultimately followed their recommendation — not because it was persuaded by their moral argument, but because the geopolitical context had changed. The **deal with Iran** was opening the **Strait of Hormuz** and promising a new source of oil on the markets. **Trump** himself had declared at the **G7 in France** on June 16: **"We will be able to do it [increase sanctions on Russia] because the oil is flowing now."** This is not moral rigor — it is **market mechanics**.

*Trump let the waiver expire because Iran was becoming an oil supplier again, not because he had decided to punish Putin for the drones on Kyiv. Motivations must be called by their names, even when the result is the right one.*

## The G7 and the Collective Signal on Russian Sanctions

### Évian-les-Bains: the promise of a tighter grip

The **G7 convened at Évian-les-Bains in France** produced a collective commitment: the leaders of the **seven major democracies** pledged to **progressively strengthen sanctions on Russia's war economy**, including the **oil and gas sectors**. This announcement is welcome. It follows months during which Western pressure on Russian **energy exports** had been deliberately softened by the American waivers.

The question now is one of follow-through. G7 commitments on sanctions have a mixed history — stated firmly in communiqués, implemented more variably in practice. **Russia** has mastered the art of **sanctions evasion**, notably by **redirecting oil exports toward Asian buyers** with significant discounts. The non-renewal of the American waiver is a step. It is **not a victory**.

*G7 communiqués on Russian sanctions have the unfortunate habit of being stronger on paper than in practice. I hope the commitment holds this time. But Ukraine has learned at bitter cost that promises of pressure on Moscow do not automatically translate into reality on the ground.*

## Sanctions Evasion: Moscow's Predictable Response

### Asian buyers as Russia's lifeline

The expiration of the American waiver does not mean the end of Russian oil exports. **Olga Khakova** makes this clear: even without the American waiver, **Russia** will use its **sanctions evasion tactics** — the **shadow fleet** of uninsured tankers, non-dollar currency transactions, intermediaries in third-party countries — to continue exporting oil to **Asian buyers**, primarily **China** and **India**, with significant discounts.

This model has been well established since 2022. It will not disappear overnight because Washington decided not to renew a license. Export volumes may drop marginally. Revenue will decrease somewhat — discounts on the Asian market reduce margins. But **Putin** has proven he can wage war with discounted oil. The **economic pressure** is real. A complete funding cutoff is not.

*Russia's shadow fleet keeps sailing. Indian and Chinese refineries will keep buying Putin's oil at reduced prices. The expiration of the American waiver is more of a political signal than a real economic rupture. I accept it as a positive signal while refusing to make it a definitive victory.*

## What This Concretely Changes for Ukraine

### Economic pressure as a lever for peace or capitulation

The reduction in Russian oil revenues — even partial — has an effect on Moscow's capacity to fund its military operations long-term. Every billion less in the **Kremlin**'s coffers is a billion less available for drone strikes, missiles, military equipment, mercenary recruitment, and the maintenance of a war economy. The stated objective of Ukrainian President **Volodymyr Zelensky** and his Western allies is precisely to drain this funding until the continuation of the war becomes economically unsustainable for Russia.

But timing matters. Three months of exceptional oil revenues have already been spent. **Unprecedented drone and missile attacks** took place this spring — funded, according to Khakova, by the profits from the waiver period. Ukraine is paying the human price of this decision. The end of the waivers improves the situation at the margin. It does not bring back the victims of the spring strikes.

*Zelensky needs economic pressure on Moscow. That is beyond dispute. But economic pressure that arrives after the oil has funded months of attacks on Ukrainian cities is medicine administered after the complications. Better late than never — but **the scars remain**.*

## The First Waiver: A Choice Made Under Iranian Urgency

### March 2026 — Russian oil as a market buffer

The first waiver, granted on **March 12, 2026**, coincided with the start of the **war between the United States and Iran**. The logic was simple: the conflict with Iran threatened to close the **Strait of Hormuz**, cut part of global oil supplies, and send prices skyrocketing. Keeping **Russian oil** on the markets was presented as a tool for cushioning energy shocks. **Bessent**'s argument about protecting vulnerable nations had a certain coherence then.

The problem is that this emergency logic was renewed three times. As the **Iranian war** evolved and the prospect of a deal took shape, the pretext of energy vulnerability weakened. The third waiver, granted on **May 18** to expire on **June 17**, coincided with advanced negotiations with Iran. Maintaining the waiver until the **Iranian deal** was signed maximized the revenue window for **Moscow** — perhaps not intentionally, but that is the real result.

*From the legitimate urgency of March to the unjustifiable waiver of May: that is how exceptions become default policies. Sanctions bureaucracy has its own inertial dynamics. And meanwhile, Putin cashes in.*

## What the Right Signal Does Not Guarantee

### The expiration as a beginning, not an end

### What Ukraine is waiting for now: actions, not communiqués

The expiration of the waiver is the right signal. The G7 at Évian reinforced that signal with a collective promise to tighten sanctions. **Trump** himself expressed the will to increase pressure on Russia once Iranian oil compensates Russian volumes on the markets. These elements sketch a coherent change of direction — not driven by sudden ideological conviction, but because the economic conditions now permit it.

What this expiration does not guarantee: the rapid implementation of new effective sanctions on Russian **oil and gas** exports; the closing of evasion routes via China, India, and third-party countries; the end of ambiguities in the application of agreed **price caps**; and European political consistency on residual energy dependencies on **Moscow**. These challenges remain open. Ukraine cannot wait for all of them to be resolved. It is waiting for concrete actions, not communiqués.

*A positive signal amid challenges still open. That is the honest summary of the situation. Ukraine deserves more than signals. It deserves sanctions that genuinely bite — and quickly.*

## Conclusion: The Right Decision for the Wrong Reasons

### The expiration as market necessity before moral virtue

The decision to let the **Russian oil** waiver expire is right. It was long overdue. But it arrived largely for reasons related to **oil market mechanics** — Iranian oil returning to the markets — rather than from a realization about the human consequences of Russian oil revenues for Ukraine. I am not saying the result is bad because the motivations are imperfect. I am saying we must be honest about what actually triggered this change.

What Ukraine needs now: for the G7 promise to translate into **coordinated, effective, and non-circumventable sanctions** on Russian **energy exports**. **Zelensky** is a man who fights with the tools he is given. For three months, his enemy was given the means to bomb him. The **correction has begun**. It must now be pursued with the same consistency that Putin applied to funding his war.

*The right decision, at last. Now it must be maintained. And that is the hardest part — because sanctions policy is a marathon, not a sprint. Ukraine has been running since **2022**. Its allies must **hold the distance**.*

**By Maxime Marquette, columnist**

## Columnist's transparency note

### Editorial stance

I am not a journalist but a **columnist and analyst**. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies.

I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. **I claim analytical clarity**, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events.

### Method and sources

This text keeps the basic distinction between **verified facts and interpretive analysis**. The rule never changes: a factual claim is published only when a verifiable source supports it, and the sources this article actually used are listed under **Sources**, never here.

**Primary source families** used by the publication, when the story has them: official statements from governments and international institutions, public statements by political leaders, reports from intergovernmental organisations, dispatches from recognised international news agencies.

**Secondary source families**: specialised publications, internationally recognised news media, analyses from established research institutions, reports from industry organisations.

When an article cites statistical, economic or geopolitical data, it comes from the institutions that produce it (intergovernmental organisations, central banks, national statistics offices), and the exact institution is named under **Sources**.

### Nature of the analysis

The analyses, interpretations and perspectives in the analytical sections of this article are a **critical, contextual synthesis** based on the information available, the trends observed and the expert comments cited in the sources consulted.

My role is to interpret these facts, to set them in the context of today's geopolitical and economic dynamics, and to give them a coherent meaning within the larger story of the changes shaping our time. These analyses reflect expertise built through continuous observation of international affairs and an understanding of the strategic mechanisms that drive global actors.

This article describes a documented state of affairs on its publication date, not a prediction: later developments may shift its outlook. No update is promised in advance; when an article is corrected or completed, the change is dated in the text.

## Sources

### Primary sources

- [S&P Global Commodity Insights — US lets Russian oil sanctions waiver expire amid Iran deal — June 17, 2026](https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/061726-us-lets-russian-oil-sanctions-waiver-expire-amid-iran-deal)

- [New York Times — Trump at the G7 in Évian on Russian sanctions — June 16, 2026](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/16/world/europe/trump-ukraine-war-g7.html)

- [NPR — Iran-USA preliminary agreement — June 18, 2026](https://www.npr.org/2026/06/18/nx-s1-5863027/us-iran-trump-memorandum-of-understanding-full-text)

### Secondary sources

- Kyiv Independent — G7 pledges to ratchet up sanctions on Russia's war economy — June 2026

- Foreign Policy — Russia oil sanctions waiver expiration and impact on Ukraine — June 17, 2026

- The Guardian — US allows Russia oil sanctions waiver to expire — June 17, 2026

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Source: Maxime Marquette, MadMax. When citing, name the author and link https://mad-max.co/en/article/commentaire-l-exemption-russe-expiree-trump-resserre-le-robinet-apres-l-avoir-gr