# COMMENTARY: Nuclear inspections: why Vance's and Tehran's opposing narratives smell like a scam

> Here is what happened in the 48 hours following the announcement of the US-Iran roadmap on June 21, 2026. On one side, the Trump administration — represented notably by Vice President JD Vance — was asserting that Iran had accepted robust nuclear inspections giving the IAEA substantial access to sensitive sites. On the other, Iranian representatives maintained a diametrically o

- Author: Maxime Marquette
- Publisher: MadMax (https://mad-max.co)
- Section: Commentary
- Published: 2026-06-28
- Canonical URL: https://mad-max.co/en/article/commentaire-inspections-nucleaires-pourquoi-les-recits-opposes-de-vance-et-de-te

## Introduction: Two versions of the same deal — and one of them is lying

### The contradiction that surfaced in the first 48 hours

Here is what happened in the **48 hours** following the announcement of the US-Iran roadmap on **June 21, 2026**. On one side, the **Trump** administration — represented notably by Vice President **JD Vance** — was asserting that **Iran** had accepted robust nuclear inspections giving the **IAEA** substantial access to sensitive sites. On the other, Iranian representatives maintained a diametrically opposite version: inspections would remain subject to **Tehran**'s sovereignty, under conditions that **Iran** would define unilaterally. According to the **Washington Times** on **June 23, 2026** and **Al Jazeera** on **June 24**, both parties offered **radically different accounts** of what had been agreed.

I will ask the question directly, the one that diplomacy avoids: **who is lying?** Because two contradictory accounts of the same agreement signed in the same negotiating room cannot both be true simultaneously. Either the American delegation presented a more binding deal than what was actually negotiated — to satisfy its allies and domestic opinion. Or the Iranian delegation signed a text while knowing it would immediately contest its interpretation — to show its hard-line factions that nothing had been conceded. Both hypotheses deserve examination. **One of them is true. Both could even be simultaneously — and that is precisely what is most alarming.**

### History repeating itself

This is not the first time that nuclear negotiations with **Iran** have produced divergent accounts in the hours following a deal. In **2015**, the **JCPOA** had been announced as a resounding success — and then disputes over the interpretation of inspection clauses began almost immediately. The friction point was exactly the same: **IAEA** access to suspect military sites. **Parchin**, notably, was at the centre of a standoff that lasted years.

The fact that the same dispute emerges in the same **48 hours** on the same question — access to military nuclear sites — in the **2026** negotiation is not a coincidence. It is a structural constant of Iranian nuclear negotiations. **Iran** systematically refuses to permit unconditional inspections of its military sites, arguing that this would violate its sovereignty and reveal non-nuclear military secrets. The **United States** knows that without these inspections, the potential military nuclear programme remains invisible. **Eleven years after the JCPOA, we are in exactly the same place.**

*The repetition of this exact blockage, word for word, point by point, makes me want to scream. The American administration — whichever it is — and Iranian negotiators know exactly where the problem lies. They know that inspections of military sites are the red line Tehran will not cross. So why present a deal as though it had been crossed? The honest answer is that both parties need a deal — politically — even if that deal is ambiguous on the most crucial point. And ambiguity on nuclear questions is not a solution — it is a time bomb.*

## Vance's role in narrating the deal

### The vice president as spokesman for "victory"

Vice President **JD Vance** distinguished himself as one of the most active communicators of the **Trump** administration on the Iranian roadmap. His position on nuclear inspections — that **Iran** had accepted substantial access — was one of the central points of the American discourse in the hours following the announcement. **Vance** was also particularly direct on the **Hormuz** question, declaring through Secretary of State **Rubio** that there can be no "tolls" in the strait — a clear and principled red line.

But **Vance**'s communication raises a question: had he genuinely read the same text as the Iranian negotiators, or was he selling an optimized version of the deal to American domestic audiences? The answer may be both simultaneously. In complex negotiations, it is common for parties to sign a deliberately ambiguous text that allows each to present itself as the winner at home. That is **constructive ambiguity diplomacy** — constructive for the signature, potentially destructive for implementation. **Vance is selling a deal to America. Tehran is selling the same deal, in a different version, to its own Revolutionary Guards.**

### Vance's credibility on the Iranian file

**Vance** is not the most seasoned specialist on the Iranian file within the administration. His political reputation is more built on American domestic issues — economy, immigration, culture. The Iranian nuclear file requires deep technical familiarity — enrichment levels, inspection protocols, verification mechanisms — that his public communications do not always demonstrate. This is not a personal criticism — it is an observation about the division of labour within the administration.

The risk is that statements made by **Vance** to satisfy the American political audience are taken at face value by allies — notably **Israel** — as firm commitments on technical points they do not actually establish. If the final deal is less binding on inspections than **Vance**'s declarations suggest, ally disappointment could be all the more intense and potentially dangerous. **In nuclear negotiations, the precision of words is not a stylistic luxury — it is a question of global security.**

*I'll be honest: I don't know exactly what Vance said or in what context. I am relying on reports from the Washington Times and Al Jazeera. It is possible his statements were nuanced in ways these reports do not fully capture. But the very fact that contradictory accounts are circulating publicly within the first 48 hours is in itself revealing of a diplomatic communication problem — regardless of who said what exactly.*

## The Iranian narrative: contesting so as not to appear to have conceded

### Iran's domestic politics and the necessity of contesting

The Iranian narrative that immediately contests American claims on inspections is not just a negotiating position — it is a domestic political necessity. The Iranian regime cannot appear to have conceded on questions of national sovereignty and military security. The **Revolutionary Guards** and hard-line factions scrutinize every official declaration for signs of weakness. A statement confirming that **Iran** accepted unconditional inspections of its military sites would be a red flag for these factions — potentially sufficient to trigger internal sabotage of the negotiation.

The classic Iranian strategy is therefore to sign a sufficiently ambiguous text to be able to claim a favourable version domestically, while maintaining a posture of non-concession on sensitive points. It is domestic politics disguised as international diplomacy. The community of international negotiators knows this — and often tolerates it because the alternative is total negotiating failure. But this tolerance of ambiguity has a cost: it guarantees interpretive disputes immediately after signing. **What we observe in these first 48 hours is not an accident — it is the expected pattern.**

### The Supreme Leader's role in final validation

A crucial element in understanding the Iranian narrative is that foreign ministry negotiators cannot speak on behalf of the entire Iranian power system. **Supreme Leader Khamenei** is the only authority that can validate a strategic agreement of this magnitude — and his validation is not guaranteed even if his diplomatic delegation has signed a roadmap. Precedents exist: deals negotiated by Iranian diplomacy that did not receive the **Supreme Leader**'s final endorsement, forcing renegotiations or abandonments.

If **Khamenei** rejects or substantially modifies what the negotiators signed, the contradictory **Tehran** narrative on inspections might be explained by an anticipation of this resistance at the supreme level. Iranian diplomats know what **Khamenei** will accept — and they sign accordingly, even if that means contradicting what their American interlocutors believed they had obtained. **Negotiating with Iran means negotiating with a black box whose real decision-maker is invisible.**

*The Khamenei question is fundamental and rarely addressed. When I read optimistic analyses of the Iranian roadmap, I always look: have they said anything about validation by Khamenei? Almost never. Yet that is where everything is decided. A deal that Zarif or his successor signs in Switzerland only becomes real if Khamenei says yes. And Khamenei — at 85, in uncertain health, surrounded by hard-line factions that see the deal as capitulation — is precisely the unknown that no one can model with precision.*

## The technical problem of inspections: what the IAEA can and cannot do

### The Additional Protocol: the minimum standard that still falls short

At the heart of the inspection debate lies a precise technical question: which verification protocol will the **IAEA** apply? Different levels of safeguards agreements exist between states and the **IAEA**. The **Additional Protocol** — which **Iran** signed then suspended — gives the **IAEA** more extensive inspection powers, including short-notice visits to declared facilities and access to additional information. It is a significant improvement over basic safeguards agreements, but it still does not permit unannounced inspections at undeclared military sites.

What the **United States** demands — and what **Iran** refuses — goes beyond the standard Additional Protocol. It involves access to "suspect" military sites — places like the former **Parchin** base where the **IAEA** detected traces of research activities on nuclear weapon detonators — without prior conditions and without notice. This type of access is wholly exceptional in international safeguards practice and would constitute an intrusion into national military sovereignty without precedent. **Iran presents it as a disproportionate demand. The United States presents it as a minimum condition of credibility. Someone must yield — and no one wants to.**

### The known gaps in Iranian verification

The **IAEA** has documented several gaps in the verification of Iran's nuclear programme over the years. Traces of **polonium-210** at **Parchin** — consistent with research on nuclear weapon initiators. Metallic uranium found at undeclared sites. Documents from the **"Amad Programme"** — Iran's presumed nuclear weapons programme — suggesting that weapons research took place after the date at which **Iran** claims to have halted it. These gaps are not resolved by the roadmap — they remain entirely open.

If a final deal does not resolve these verifiable gaps — if the **IAEA** does not obtain answers to the specific questions it has raised about these anomalies — then the deal is built on an intellectually dishonest foundation. One signs a non-proliferation deal while knowing that past activities remain unexplained and that the nuclear actor maintains opacity about the true extent of its past activities. **Non-proliferation requires retrospective transparency as much as forward-looking guarantees.**

*The verification gaps documented by the IAEA on the Iranian programme — Parchin, metallic uranium, the Amad Programme — are established facts I am not inventing. They are in the Agency's public reports. What strikes me is how often these facts disappear from optimistic analyses of negotiations, as though one could build a non-proliferation architecture while ignoring unanswered questions from the past. One cannot. The nuclear ghosts of Parchin are in the negotiating room, even if no one names them.*

## Why divergent narratives serve both parties

### The political utility of ambiguity

It would be naive to conclude from the divergence in narratives that the deal is simply "stillborn." In complex diplomacy, deliberate ambiguity on sensitive points can be a functional mechanism allowing both parties to sign and progress toward a more substantial deal later. The logic is: if one insists on resolving every friction point before signing, one never signs anything. By deliberately leaving certain points vague, one creates a momentum dynamic that can then be used to resolve difficult questions in a second phase.

This logic has validity in certain contexts. But in nuclear negotiations, it is particularly dangerous. The vague points on inspections are not administrative details — they determine whether the deal is real or fictional. If **Vance** announces that **Iran** accepted robust inspections and **Tehran** contests this claim within **48 hours**, both delegations return to their capitals with contradictory political mandates for the continuation of negotiations. **Resolving a contradiction in the coming weeks is infinitely harder than avoiding creating it in the first place.**

### The potential scam: two exploitation scenarios

Two scenarios of exploitation of these divergent narratives deserve to be named clearly. The first — the Iranian scam — consists of **Tehran** strategically maintaining contradictory narratives to gain time and economic concessions (partial asset releases) without ever granting the substantial inspections demanded. **Iran** "negotiates" indefinitely, collects the economic dividends of the negotiating atmosphere, and maintains its nuclear programme in a state of advancement. That is precisely what Iranian hard-line factions would like to see.

The second scenario — the American scam — is more subtle but equally problematic. The **Trump** administration signs a deliberately ambiguous deal on inspections to be able to present it as a political "victory" to its domestic audience, while knowing that the verification mechanisms are insufficient. The deal is politically sellable in the short term but structurally deficient in the long term. In this scenario, it is not **Tehran** scamming **Washington** — it is **Washington** scamming itself for domestic political reasons. **Both dynamics can coexist in the same deal — and that is precisely what is scandalous.**

*I will push my thinking to its conclusion here: if the 60-day deal produces a text whose two parties claim a contradictory interpretation on nuclear inspections, it is a non-deal. Calling it a deal and selling it as a diplomatic success would be a deception — toward allies, toward the public, and toward the very goal of non-proliferation. I would rather be told "negotiations failed on this fundamental point" than be presented with a contractual ambiguity as a historic triumph.*

## Implications for the credibility of the non-proliferation regime

### If Iran obtains a deal without genuine nuclear transparency

If the roadmap produces a deal that normalizes **Iran** economically without resolving verification gaps — if **Tehran** obtains the lifting of sanctions and the **$300 billion** without granting real inspections of its military sites — the implications for the global nuclear non-proliferation regime are catastrophic. Every power aspiring to nuclear weapons will look at this deal and conclude: **if you hold out long enough, if you negotiate ambiguously enough, if you maintain your position on inspections, you can obtain economic normalization without losing your nuclear capabilities.**

That is the exact signal that must not be sent. **North Korea** is watching. **Saudi Arabia**, which has talked about its own enrichment programme, is watching. States reflecting on their own security in a post-American world are watching. The **Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons** (**NPT**) is already weakened by decades of compromises. A US-Iran deal that does not deliver on its verification promises would potentially be the fatal blow to its credibility. **International regimes do not die from frontal attacks — they die from the exception that becomes precedent that becomes rule.**

### The IAEA caught between two fires

The **International Atomic Energy Agency** (**IAEA**) finds itself in an institutionally delicate position. On one hand, it is the verification body that has documented Iranian gaps and demands answers. On the other, if a political deal between the **United States** and **Iran** is concluded with insufficient inspection mandates, the **IAEA** will be the body that must "validate" a deal it knows perfectly well does not give it the tools for genuine verification.

This situation would put the **IAEA** Director General in an impossible position: publicly endorsing a deal that does not meet minimum verification standards, or publicly opposing it and triggering a diplomatic crisis. The history of international agencies suggests they tend toward the first option, through institutional pragmatism and reluctance to kill a diplomatic dynamic. **But a credible non-proliferation regime requires being given the tools to be credible — and a verification agency that validates a deal it cannot verify loses its raison d'être.**

*I wrestle with this question: do I prefer an imperfect deal on inspections to no deal at all, if the alternative to the deal is an Iran approaching the military nuclear threshold? My honest answer is: it depends on the degree of imperfection. A deal that slows the programme by a few years, even without perfect inspections, may have temporal value if we use it to build a more robust verification architecture. A deal that normalizes Iran without any real limitations is worse than no deal. The line between the two is hard to draw from the outside — but crucial to draw.*

## What the precedents have taught

### North Korea: the nightmare scenario

To understand where divergent narratives on nuclear deals lead, one need only look at the case of **North Korea**. Decades of negotiations — the **1994 Agreed Framework**, the **Six-Party Talks** of the 2000s, the **Trump-Kim summits** of **2018-2019** — produced deals, announcements, "historic breakthroughs," and immediate divergent narratives. Result: **North Korea** is today a nuclear power with intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the **United States**, and continues building its arsenal despite all negotiations.

It is not that diplomacy with **North Korea** was useless — it may have slowed the pace. But divergent narratives, deliberate ambiguities, and the failure to insist on rigorous verification mechanisms contributed to a catastrophic outcome for non-proliferation. If **Iran** follows the same path — using negotiations to gain time and economic resources while maintaining its nuclear programme — in **10 years**, analysts will compare the **2026** roadmap to the **2006** North Korea talks. **History does not repeat exactly — but it has recurring structures that attentive observers recognize.**

### Libya: the forgotten counter-example

The Libyan case is the inverse example — and it deserves to be recalled to balance the picture. In **2003**, Colonel **Gaddafi** agreed to dismantle his weapons of mass destruction programme — chemical, biological, and the beginnings of a nuclear programme — in exchange for normalization of relations with the West. The deal was effective because it included genuine verification and physically verifiable dismantlement of equipment. It was not a deal that maintained ambiguity on inspections — it was a deal that showed the weapons and destroyed them.

This positive precedent shows that nuclear deals can work when parties are sufficiently motivated and when verification is real. The difference with **Iran** is that **Gaddafi** had not yet invested massively in his programme and the cost of dismantlement was lower. **Iran** in **2026**, with its advanced enrichment and a programme that has lasted decades, has much higher abandonment costs. **Positive precedents exist but do not automatically transfer — they apply with the same baseline conditions that made them possible.**

*Nobody ever talks about Libya in discussions of nuclear precedents, and that is a mistake. The fact that Gaddafi genuinely dismantled his programme — and that verification confirmed it — proves this type of deal can work. What destroyed the Libyan incentive for good behaviour was then the 2011 intervention that toppled Gaddafi despite his compliance with the deals. That lesson — that states that give up weapons of mass destruction can then be overthrown by the West — is precisely what Iran has internalized. And that lesson makes today's negotiation structurally harder.*

## What Washington must do now

### Insist on public clarification of terms

**Washington** must publicly resolve the contradiction on inspections before progressing toward other aspects of the deal. Allowing this contradiction to settle and be normalized — both parties maintaining divergent narratives as a negotiating status quo — sets a fatal precedent for what follows. If the **United States** accepts the Iranian divergence on inspections as a "point to be resolved later," it signals that it can live with ambiguity on the most crucial point.

The correct approach is to pose the question publicly and precisely: does **Iran** accept or not accept **IAEA** access to suspect military sites, without notice, without prior conditions? If the answer is no — and all indications suggest that is **Tehran**'s real answer — then the deal claims to solve the nuclear problem without touching its core. **Clarifying now is painful. Discovering the scam after signing is catastrophic.**

### Mobilizing allies as a pressure lever

To obtain real Iranian concessions on inspections, the American administration must mobilize its allies — **Israel**, **Europe**, Gulf allies — around a common position on the minimum acceptable verification standard. If **Israel** and **Saudi Arabia** publicly signal that they cannot accept a deal without unconditional inspections of military sites, pressure on **Tehran** multiplies. If **Europe** conditions its participation in the **$300 billion** reconstruction on guarantees of robust verification, the deal's economic lever is conditioned on the nuclear quality of its terms.

This mobilization is not easy — it requires intensive diplomatic coordination and the political will to extend negotiations rather than quickly sign a mediocre deal. But it is the only path to a deal that holds. **A quick and flawed deal is worse than a long and demanding negotiation. Patience is sometimes the most necessary form of courage in diplomacy.**

*My conclusion on this matter is uncomfortable but necessary: if within 60 days, Washington and Tehran cannot agree on a precise and unambiguous formulation on inspections of military sites, it is better to acknowledge this honestly and suspend negotiations rather than sign an ambiguity and call it a deal. Ambiguous nuclear deals are not neutral — they provide diplomatic cover for proliferation while removing the tools of response from the international community. Diplomatic courage, sometimes, means saying no.*

## What Tehran is calculating — and why this calculation is dangerous

### Gaining time as an Iranian strategic objective

I will formulate an analytical hypothesis: the Iranian regime, or a significant part of it, considers current negotiations not as a path toward a permanent deal, but as a mechanism to gain time and resources. By entering the **60-day** roadmap, **Iran** obtains: a diplomatic atmosphere that reduces pressure for pre-emptive strikes (Israeli or American), a prospect of partial release of frozen assets that marginally improves its economic situation, and enhanced international legitimacy that complicates future sanctions coalitions.

If that is the objective, the divergent narratives on inspections are not a bug — they are a feature. They allow **Iran** to participate in negotiations without genuinely committing on the only point that matters. This nuclear time-gaining strategy — practised by **North Korea** since **1994** — is extraordinarily effective in the short term. In the long term, it produces an undeclared military nuclear state that defies the world's non-proliferation order. **The Iranian calculation is rational in the short term and catastrophic in the long term for regional stability.**

### What Iran would lose in a deal that genuinely holds

If **Iran** truly accepted robust **IAEA** inspections of its military sites, it would lose its nuclear "hedging" capability — the ability to approach the military threshold without formally crossing it, maintaining strategic ambiguity between civilian and potential military power. This ambiguity is valuable in Iran's regional security calculus: it deters a pre-emptive attack by **Israel** (which prefers clear targets), it increases the perceived cost of American confrontation, and it gives **Tehran** a last-resort nuclear option.

Accepting genuine inspections means agreeing to lose this strategic ambiguity. That is a huge cost for the regime — far higher than any economic benefit from the deal. And that is why I remain sceptical that **Tehran** will ever genuinely accept the level of inspections that the **United States** demands. The divergence in narratives in the **first 48 hours** is not a misunderstanding — it is the revelation of a fundamental incompatibility of objectives. **Vance's and Tehran's opposing narratives do not announce a communication problem — they reveal an intention problem.**

*Here is where I land after this analysis: I do not believe the divergent accounts on inspections are repairable within 60 days, because the divergence reflects an incompatibility of genuine objectives. Washington wants a verifiable deal. Tehran wants economic normalization without abandoning its nuclear ambiguity. These two objectives are irreducible. Unless one of the two fundamentally changes position — and nothing in the first 48 hours suggests that is happening.*

## The IAEA's credibility facing Washington's and Tehran's opposing accounts

### The IAEA as neutral arbiter — and its institutional limits

The **International Atomic Energy Agency** (IAEA) is the body supposed to adjudicate between the contradictory narratives of **Washington** and **Tehran** on inspections. But the **IAEA** itself operates under institutional constraints that limit its ability to play this role with full authority. Its Director General depends on the consensus of its members — including **China** and **Russia**, which tend to protect **Iran** from the most binding resolutions. Its inspection teams, however professional, can only access facilities that **Iran** agrees to open. And its findings, even when clearly negative, can be politically buried by member states that do not want to see their implications acknowledged.

The history of **IAEA** nuclear inspections in **Iran** is a narrative of partial and selective cooperation. The agency has documented traces of undeclared nuclear activities on multiple occasions — notably the discovery of uranium enriched to **60%** in undeclared facilities. These findings have systematically been minimized or contested by **Tehran**, which invokes **"civilian research activities"** or accuses the **IAEA** of political instrumentalization in service of American and Israeli interests. **When every finding of an international agency becomes a matter of dispute, verification loses its raison d'être.**

### The "enhanced inspections" proposal: what does "enhanced" mean?

The **Islamabad** memorandum mentions **"enhanced inspections"** — but this term remains deliberately vague. In nuclear jargon, "enhanced" can mean several things: application of the **IAEA's Additional Protocol**, which permits short-notice inspections at declared facilities; **"early detection"** measures that are even more intrusive for underground sites; or simply an increase in the frequency of standard inspections. The difference between these levels is immense — and it is precisely on this question that **Vance**'s and **Tehran**'s accounts diverge most.

**Washington** presents the deal as including inspections "more robust than the JCPOA." **Tehran** speaks of "enhanced cooperation within existing obligations" — which essentially means the status quo with improved rhetoric. If this divergence is not resolved in the **60 days** of finalization, the deal will carry two incompatible interpretations of its central provision — and the first detected violation will cause this contradiction to explode potentially catastrophically. **Calculated ambiguity is useful in diplomacy — it is lethal in verification.**

*The IAEA in this matter reminds me of a football referee whose two teams systematically contest every decision. The referee may be competent and neutral, but if the teams refuse to recognize their authority, the match becomes unplayable. That is exactly the IAEA's situation with Iran: serious inspectors producing rigorous reports, facing a regime that contests conclusions, restricts access, and instrumentalizes its allies on the Security Council to block consequences. Genuinely strengthening inspections requires reinforcing the IAEA's political authority — not just its procedures.*

## The North Korea precedent: what Iran learned from Pyongyang

### The strategy of perpetual negotiation as a nuclear development tool

**North Korea** offers **Iran** the most instructive strategic precedent in terms of nuclear programmes facing international pressure. **Pyongyang** used two decades of negotiations, partial agreements and deliberate violations to develop, in the shadow of diplomacy, an operational nuclear arsenal. The pattern is repetitive: solemn commitments followed by violations, return to the negotiating table under pressure, new commitments, new violations. With each cycle, **North Korea**'s nuclear capabilities advanced — until it was sufficiently advanced to make any denuclearization politically and technically impracticable.

Iranian planners have studied this precedent. Nuclear negotiations with **Tehran** since **2003** present troubling similarities with the North Korean pattern: diplomatic advances followed by violations of commitments, growing demands parallel to capability development, use of diplomacy to gain time while advancing technically. The difference is that **Iran**, unlike **North Korea**, has not yet crossed the threshold of a declared bomb — which still leaves room for a deal that arrests the progression. **But that window is closing with every additional enrichment step.**

### The differences between Iran and North Korea that could make the deal possible

The analogy with **North Korea** has important limits. **Iran**, unlike **Pyongyang**, remains integrated — or aspires to be — in the global economy. Economic sanctions have genuinely cost it, creating popular pressures that the North Korean regime has never had to manage to the same extent. **Iran** has an active civil society, an educated middle class and a diversified economy whose actors have a stake in economic normalization. These factors create internal pressure toward compromise that **North Korea**, hermetically closed, does not experience.

There is also the question of dynastic calculation: **Kim Jong-un**'s regime judges its survival impossible without nuclear weapons — it is an existential red line. In **Iran**, the internal debate about the value of a complete nuclear programme versus the economic benefits of a deal is more nuanced. Factions within the Iranian regime prefer economic pragmatism to nuclear adventurism. That is what the **Trump** administration bet on by engaging in negotiations — and the **Islamabad** memorandum suggests this bet is not entirely irrational. **The difference between Iran and North Korea is that Iran still has something to lose economically — and it knows it.**

*The North Korean precedent haunts this analysis. I have seen how the international community was persuaded multiple times that negotiations with Pyongyang would produce results — and each time, North Korea emerged with a more advanced nuclear programme. I do not want to be the analyst who repeats the same errors of judgment. But I also recognise that Iran is not North Korea — its society is different, its relationship with the world is different, and economic levers work differently. Maybe this time is different. That is the bet. It always is the bet.*

## The deal's impact on Ukraine and the ongoing war

### The indirect connections between Iranian diplomacy and Russian support to Moscow

There is a direct strategic connection between the Iranian nuclear file and the war in **Ukraine** that diplomatic analyses often neglect. **Iran** has become one of **Russia**'s main arms suppliers since **2022** — in particular the **Shahed-136** drones, which have become **Moscow**'s weapon of terror against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. These drones have killed Ukrainian civilians, destroyed power plants, and spread terror in millions of homes. Every **Shahed** drone strike is an Iranian contribution to Russian war crimes in **Ukraine**.

The question that therefore arises with particular acuity is: does the **Washington-Tehran** deal include an Iranian commitment to stop supplying drones to **Russia**? Available information on the **Islamabad** memorandum does not explicitly mention this condition. If **Iran** can sign a nuclear deal with the **United States** while continuing to supply **Putin**'s war machine, the deal would send the catastrophic signal that authoritarian regimes' weapons programmes and alliances are compartmentalizable at will. **A peace with Tehran that funds the war against Kyiv is a two-speed peace — and Kyiv pays the price for the US-Iran entente.**

### What Kyiv thinks of the deal — and why it matters

**Kyiv** watches the **Washington-Tehran** negotiations with understandable anxiety. If the deal improves **Iran**'s economic conditions, it could reduce **Tehran**'s willingness to sell its drones cheaply to a **Russia** seeking suppliers at any price. That is the optimistic argument. The pessimistic argument is that **Iran** will continue supplying drones to **Russia** regardless of its commitments to **Washington**, using the same discreet channels that currently bypass existing sanctions.

For **Kyiv**, the absolute priority remains Western military support — weapons, ammunition, air defences — which has no direct link to the status of the US-Iran deal. But if the deal effectively reduced the flow of **Shahed** drones toward **Russia**, that would be a concrete and welcome benefit. **Any diplomacy that reduces Putin's capacity to kill Ukrainians is good diplomacy — even if it does not correspond to the diplomatic principles we would have preferred to apply.**

*The connection between the US-Iran deal and the war in Ukraine is the one that weighs most heavily on me. Ukrainians are dying under Iranian drones every week. If the Washington deal includes a serious commitment to end this weapons flow, then it has concrete value beyond nuclear non-proliferation — it saves Ukrainian lives. If not, then the deal is built on a moral compartmentalization I find difficult to defend. Diplomacy does not unfold in the ethical vacuum of each file taken in isolation.*

## Russia's and China's role in the deal: interested spectators

### Moscow between satisfaction and concern over a normalized Iran

**Russia** watches the **Washington-Tehran** negotiations with calculated strategic ambivalence. On one hand, an **Iran** re-integrated into the international financial system is less dependent on **Russia** — which reduces **Moscow**'s leverage over **Tehran**. A prosperous and normalized **Iran** is an **Iran** that needs **Russia** less as a substitute market, a replacement technology partner, and diplomatic support in multilateral organizations. US-Iran normalization is therefore, paradoxically, a slight strategic loss for **Putin**.

On the other hand, an **Iran** with greater economic resources maintains its military capabilities and support for proxies — which remains useful to the Russian strategy of regional destabilization. And a US-Iran deal that absorbs **Washington**'s diplomatic attention and resources for months is an opportunity for **Moscow** to consolidate its positions in **Ukraine** with less international attention. **Putin excels at exploiting the West's diplomatic distractions — and a complex nuclear negotiation is an excellent one.**

### China: commerce first, geopolitics second

**China** has a clear interest in a **Washington-Tehran** deal: it is the main buyer of Iranian oil since American sanctions, paying preferential prices in exchange for the implicit challenge to the Western sanctions order. A US-Iran normalization could reduce this Chinese economic advantage — **Iran** would no longer need to discount its oil to **Beijing** if international markets were reopened to it.

But **Beijing** also calculates that lifting Iranian sanctions would create new investment opportunities in Iranian infrastructure — exactly the type of projects the **"Belt and Road"** seeks to develop. The 25-year **Sino-Iranian strategic agreement** signed in **2021**, which provided for massive Chinese investments in exchange for preferential Iranian oil, could be revisited in the context of a normalized **Iran**. **For Beijing, Iran is first a market and an access route to resources — diplomacy is always in the service of commerce.**

*The way Russia and China watch the US-Iran deal reveals something important about their worldview: neither has a fundamental interest in Middle Eastern stability — they have interests in managed instability that benefits them economically and strategically. A normalized Iran reducing their respective levers slightly inconveniences them. But they also calculate the advantages of an America distracted by complex Middle Eastern negotiations while they consolidate their positions elsewhere. That is the permanent game of revisionist powers: never oppose frontally, always seek to profit from disorder.*

## Long-term implications for global nuclear security

### What the deal says — or does not say — about non-proliferation

The **Washington-Tehran** deal, whatever its final form, sends a message to the world about the value of the **Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons** (NPT). If the deal imposes real and verifiable constraints, it reinforces the idea that the NPT can be enforced with significant consequences for its violators. If instead it grants **Iran** major concessions without robust verifiable counterparts, it sends the opposite signal: that the clandestine development of a nuclear programme ultimately results in the lifting of sanctions and the implicit recognition of a special status.

This signal is being watched closely by states like **Saudi Arabia**, which has declared it wants to develop its own nuclear capability if **Iran** crosses the bomb threshold. By **Japan** and **South Korea**, which see proliferation in **Northeast Asia** as an existential threat. And by dozens of states calculating whether a nuclear programme remains the best security guarantee against revisionist regimes. **Non-proliferation is not an abstract treaty — it is a norm whose value is modified for everyone by every deal or violation.**

### Long-term scenarios according to the 60 days' outcome

In the best scenario, the **60 days** produce a deal with robust verification mechanisms, progressive sanctions relief tied to measurable milestones, and a credible Iranian commitment not to cross the military nuclear threshold. This scenario strengthens the non-proliferation regime, provides a positive example for other nuclear negotiations, and reduces the risk of regional war triggered by fear of a nuclear Iran.

In the worst scenario, negotiations stretch beyond the **60 days**, key questions remain unresolved, and **Iran** continues enriching uranium while diplomats debate formulations. In that case, the **Islamabad** memorandum will mainly have allowed **Tehran** to buy time and **Washington** to pretend to a diplomatic success without real substance. The history of Iranian nuclear negotiations since **2003** unfortunately offers many examples of this second scenario. **Vigilance on details is the only thing that distinguishes a historic deal from an elaborate deception.**

*I end this analysis with a firm conviction: the test of this deal will not be in the press releases of both parties on signing day. It will be in the IAEA reports six months later, in Iran's regional behaviour eighteen months later, and in Tehran's behaviour facing the first real tension with Washington in two years. If at these three horizons Iran respects its commitments, then Islamabad was a historic turning point. If not, it was one more episode in the long history of Iranian nuclear deals that did not deliver on their promises.*

## Conclusion: Naming the scam to defeat it

### The uncomfortable truth that must be said

The contradiction between **Vance**'s and **Tehran**'s accounts on nuclear inspections is not a technical problem of translation or diplomatic misunderstandings. It is the revelation of a fundamental problem: either one party is lying about what was agreed, or both parties deliberately signed an ambiguous text allowing each to present itself as the winner at home. In both cases, the deal is not what it claims to be. And a deal that is not what it claims to be on the most crucial question — nuclear verification — is not a non-proliferation deal. It is a diplomatic fiction with real security implications.

Naming this potential scam is not pessimism — it is a necessary condition of realism for negotiators on both sides to be forced to produce an honest and precise text on the sticking point. The pressure of an informed public, demanding allies, and journalists asking the right questions is sometimes the only thing that prevents diplomats from signing compromises that resolve nothing. **The commentator's role is not to validate deals as they are concluded — it is to ask: what does this actually say?**

### What the next steps must show

In the coming weeks, the resolution of the contradiction on inspections will be the roadmap's determinative test. If both parties publicly clarify their positions and arrive at a precise and unambiguous text, that is the sign the **60 days** can produce something real. If the contradiction persists — if it is normalized as a "question to be resolved" while the deal progresses on other aspects — that is the sign the scam is underway. The entire world has an interest in this distinction being made clearly, quickly, and honestly. **The truth about Hormuz and the Iranian nuclear file deserves better than contradictory accounts dressed up as historic deals.**

**By Maxime Marquette, columnist**

## Columnist's transparency note

### Editorial stance

I am not a journalist but a **columnist and analyst**. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies.

I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. **I claim analytical clarity**, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events.

### Method and sources

This text keeps the basic distinction between **verified facts and interpretive analysis**. The rule never changes: a factual claim is published only when a verifiable source supports it, and the sources this article actually used are listed under **Sources**, never here.

**Primary source families** used by the publication, when the story has them: official statements from governments and international institutions, public statements by political leaders, reports from intergovernmental organisations, dispatches from recognised international news agencies.

**Secondary source families**: specialised publications, internationally recognised news media, analyses from established research institutions, reports from industry organisations.

When an article cites statistical, economic or geopolitical data, it comes from the institutions that produce it (intergovernmental organisations, central banks, national statistics offices), and the exact institution is named under **Sources**.

### Nature of the analysis

The analyses, interpretations and perspectives in the analytical sections of this article are a **critical, contextual synthesis** based on the information available, the trends observed and the expert comments cited in the sources consulted.

My role is to interpret these facts, to set them in the context of today's geopolitical and economic dynamics, and to give them a coherent meaning within the larger story of the changes shaping our time. These analyses reflect expertise built through continuous observation of international affairs and an understanding of the strategic mechanisms that drive global actors.

This article describes a documented state of affairs on its publication date, not a prediction: later developments may shift its outlook. No update is promised in advance; when an article is corrected or completed, the change is dated in the text.

*Naming the possible scam without closing the door on real hope — that is the difficult balance this commentary tries to maintain. I cannot afford pure cynicism that rejects any deal a priori, because the alternative — a nuclear Iran in a few years — is even more dangerous. And I cannot afford naivety that accepts both parties' declarations without demanding the verification mechanisms that make them credible. Between these two pitfalls, there is a narrow space of vigilant pragmatism. That is where serious diplomacy must operate.*

## Sources

### Primary sources

- [Al Jazeera — What the US and Iran agreed and disagreed on on the first day — June 23, 2026](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/23/what-the-us-and-iran-agreed-and-disagreed-on-first-day-of-talks)

- [Al Jazeera — Live: Trump and Tehran at odds over nuclear inspections and Hormuz — June 24, 2026](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/24/iran-war-live-trump-tehran-at-odds-over-nuclear-inspections-hormuz)

- [Washington Times — US and Iran offer different stories on nuclear inspections — June 23, 2026](https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/jun/23/us-iran-offer-different-stories-nuclear-inspections-negotiations/)

### Secondary sources

- [WWNO/NPR — The United States and Iran agree on a roadmap — June 21, 2026](https://www.wwno.org/npr-news/2026-06-21/the-u-s-and-iran-agree-to-a-road-map-for-a-final-deal-mediators-say)

- [Ground News — Islamabad memorandum: the 14 points of the deal — June 23, 2026](https://ground.news/article/b656df9e-fc5e-46f1-a8e0-3254c5ac107a)

- [The Guardian — Global geopolitical context of American diplomacy — June 27, 2026](https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2026/jun/27/nato-leaders-fear-they-can-no-longer-rely-on-us-help-if-russia-attacks-trump-eastern-europe)

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Source: Maxime Marquette, MadMax. When citing, name the author and link https://mad-max.co/en/article/commentaire-inspections-nucleaires-pourquoi-les-recits-opposes-de-vance-et-de-te