# COLUMN: 3.4% growth less than a week before the vote, and gas still above $4

> 3.4%. The figure is good. It beats the forecasts. That can be said without a wince. The Bureau of Economic Analysis, the BEA, released it on October 29, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.

- Author: Maxime Marquette
- Publisher: MadMax (https://mad-max.co)
- Section: Column
- Published: 2026-10-29
- Canonical URL: https://mad-max.co/en/article/column-3-4-growth-less-than-a-week-before-the-vote-and-gas-still-above-4

## The 8:30 figure

**3.4%.**

The figure is good. It beats the forecasts. That can be said without a wince.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis, the BEA, released it on October 29, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.

It measures real growth in the third quarter.

CNN calls it the fastest pace in over a year. The needle climbs.

### Faster than in the spring

Summer sped up. In the spring, the pace was **2.2%**.

The slope climbs.

The BEA points to two drivers. Investment speeds up. Government spending rebounds.

Exports fall.

Economists polled by Reuters expected 3.2%. Their forecasts ranged from 1% to 4.2%.

The quarter did better.

I put this quarter to Donald Trump’s credit. He has his share in it.

### The gallon next to the chart

The receipt remains. It is read at the pump.

The war on Iran drags on. Households save less.

On Tuesday, America votes.

The speedometer climbs. The fuel gauge drops.

The president has both.

Both dials tell the truth.

## Annual pace, modest quarter

The 3.4% is annualized. It stretches the summer over a year. The quarter alone weighs less.

A footnote says so. Its quarterly changes are shown annualized.

Over July, August and September, real GDP grew **0.8%**. The release says so itself.

Annualized nominal GDP: 5.6%.

Inflation makes the gap.

### Same summer, two ways to write it

Nobody is cheating. Both figures are accurate.

The first goes on the poster. The second goes in a footnote.

They describe the same summer.

### An advance estimate

The bureau calls it an advance estimate. The word matters. The BEA announces a second estimate on **November 25**.

Income already moves. July and August are revised.

Nothing is fixed.

The data will be superseded. The vote will have happened.

22 days separate them. The voter votes on the draft.

*The speedometer shows a speed, not a distance.*

## Computers and inventories carried the summer

The bureau names the engines.

Investment leads. Private inventories rise. Equipment follows.

Wholesale trade and manufacturing swell inventories the most, according to the BEA. Warehouses fill up.

### Computers in front

Computers and peripherals lead.

Machines dominate. They are counted through imports.

CNN puts business investment at **12.7%** at an annualized pace. Before, it was 9%.

The jump is sharp.

AI companies are building data centers, and NPR counts that construction among the big drivers of growth in the quarter.

Reuters adds a doubt. The AI bill is rising.

Investors are watching it. The payoff is uncertain.

The summer was built on machines.

### Consumer spending holds at 3.8%

Consumer spending makes up more than two-thirds of the economy. It grows at a **3.8%** pace.

The spring did the same.

The consumer holds.

NPR reports that higher-income Americans partly lead this spending. They withstand inflation better.

Layoffs remain historically low. Hiring is moderate.

On the services side, health care leads. Hospitals come first. Restaurants follow.

Spending on purchased meals rises. On the goods side, drugs lead.

The engine runs hard.

## More than $4 a gallon

The pump remains.

On average, the gallon is still above $4, Reuters writes.

NPR writes that the war with Iran is driving up energy costs, gasoline included.

The tank follows the war.

### On October 25, the White House promises

Four days before the GDP report, the White House published its promise.

“Gas and diesel prices will soon drop rapidly,” it wrote.

Soon.

The release touts other moves. The list is long.

The White House claims records. America would be pumping more oil and gas than ever.

It claims that more oil is leaving through the Strait of Hormuz than before the war.

That is an argument.

It claims deals with other countries to release over 130 million barrels of diesel.

That is not nothing.

According to the text, Venezuelan oil entering the U.S. jumped by over 400%. The percentage is its own.

The text also cites an order signed this month to immediately cut diesel costs for truckers.

Diesel gets its line. Gasoline waits for its order.

### Three words at the bottom of the release

The list goes on. Trump invokes the Defense Production Act, the White House writes. The goal: refine more.

A pipeline for Alaska, it announced.

The deal with Korea and Taiwan would be worth $54 billion. Alaskans would save $10 billion on energy, according to it.

The pipeline does not exist yet.

The EPA grants waivers, it says. Gasoline supply rises, it claims.

The White House accuses. Democratic officials in New York and California would be driving up their prices. The charge targets the opponent.

No price is given. The text ends on a slogan.

“Trust in Trump.”

The gallon decides. It ignores the slogan.

*GDP reads in percent, and gasoline is paid in dollars.*

## The best defense

The best defense lies elsewhere. It comes from the BEA.

Final sales to private domestic purchasers, adjusted for prices, rose **4.9%** at an annualized rate in the third quarter.

In the spring, it was 4.6%. Private demand is accelerating.

That holds.

Reuters confirms it. Consumer spending and AI-driven investment more than offset costlier oil.

The quarter absorbed the war.

### Kevin Warsh talks of a strong pace

Fed chair Kevin Warsh told reporters that “economic activity is expanding at a strong pace.”

The central banker says it.

He added that “domestic spending has been resilient.” He qualifies it.

Uncertainty remains, he says. Geopolitics weighs.

Quarterly inflation is easing too.

The PCE price index rose 2.1% at an annualized rate, against 5.0% in the spring.

Excluding food and energy, it is at 2.5%, against 3.3%.

Prices for domestic purchases follow, according to the BEA. They are at 3.0%, against 5.6%.

The pressure eases.

### The spring jump does not return

The president scores a point. The spring price shock does not come back.

That counts.

Olu Sonola, of Fitch Ratings, told CNN of “the AI boom and the irrepressible American consumer.” The economy is not cooling, he says.

An economy that stalls does not post these figures.

## Two inflation figures on the same Thursday morning

A second report comes out too. It covers September.

Over a year, the PCE price index rose **3.6%**. The tone changes. September stings.

September alone is at 0.5%. August was at 0.3%.

The month speeds up.

### Highest in four months

CNN calls it the highest in four months, and credits part of the push to rising gas prices.

Gasoline is back. It weighs.

The core, without food and energy, goes from 3% to 3.1%, according to CNN. The core heats up too.

The network says the September CPI and PPI pointed the same way. The war shakes energy.

The central bank’s target is still 2%, CNN says. Inflation is far from it.

NPR recalls that the Fed scrutinizes this index closely.

### I hold both figures

The 2.1% is quarterly, annualized. The 3.6% compares two Septembers.

I hold both to be accurate.

The first suits a speech. The second sticks to the bill. The wallet reads the second.

*The bureau publishes two inflation figures.*

## The paycheck shrinks

One line hurts.

Real disposable income fell **0.3%** in September. In August, it stalled.

Purchasing power is falling.

In current dollars, disposable income still gains $52.7 billion. Inflation erases it.

Personal income, for its part, gained only 0.2% on the month. The gain is thin.

August did better: 0.3%. Income is slowing.

### $113.1 billion in spending

Households still spent $113.1 billion more in September. Services take $78.1 billion. Goods, $35.1 billion.

The bill grows.

Americans are easing off, CNN writes. Spending slows to 0.5%. It was at 0.9% in August.

Prices eat almost all of it. What is left is $2.6 billion in real dollars.

The gain stays under 0.1%.

CNN is blunt: real consumer spending was flat.

The basket costs more. It does not get bigger.

### Wages behind prices

The agency attributes the rise in income to compensation and social benefits.

Private wages lead. Medicare leads benefits.

Reuters writes that wage gains have at times lagged inflation. NPR goes further.

Wage growth has fallen behind inflation, the public broadcaster writes.

The paycheck lags. The bill runs.

## Savings at their lowest in nearly four years

The saving rate falls to **3.8%** of disposable income. It loses 0.2 points. That figure is CNN’s.

It is the lowest rate in nearly four years, CNN reports.

Personal saving is $911.1 billion.

The cushion is melting.

### The nest egg

Reuters writes that households are saving less and dipping into their nest eggs to fund spending.

Households dip in. They spend.

Real income falls, savings melt, consumer spending holds anyway, and the difference comes out of household nest eggs.

CNN writes that spending held up partly at the expense of savings.

The reserve pays.

### The household tank

The government measures speed. Savings measure the tank.

The tank is dropping.

Economists anticipated a slowdown in consumer spending, Reuters writes.

September sketches it.

*The economy speeds up on its reserve.*

## Decorah, a 130-year-old house

Decorah is in Iowa.

Siri Steven manages a resale store there, NPR reports.

She says she and her husband are putting off fixing up their more than 130-year-old house.

The repairs wait.

### “We barely go out to eat now”

“We barely go out to eat now,” she said.

The sentence is short.

Siri Steven says she watches her budget. She wants to avoid overdraft.

She also says her family has not been able to save, and lives paycheck to paycheck.

The same quarter, the BEA sees purchased meals rise. The average eats out.

The restaurant waits too.

### Lower incomes pay more

NPR writes that lower-income Americans are struggling more than high earners.

The top holds. The bottom bends.

Elizabeth Renter, lead economist at Life360, sums it up for CNN: “that’s not uniform across households.”

“Some households are going to feel a lot more stress from the higher inflation than others,” she added.

She is right. The average erases Decorah.

If you have ever put off a repair to pay for groceries, you know this math.

GDP, for its part, does not wait.

## Canada shows up in the imports column

One line looks at Canada. The calculation subtracts imports.

Imports surged at a nearly 20% annualized pace, according to CNN.

The jump surprises.

### Stockpiles before Canadian tariffs

CNN sees a likely reflection of businesses stockpiling ahead of Canadian tariffs taking effect.

The network also counts data center-related purchases.

Inventories swell.

Capital goods, except automotive, lead imports, according to the BEA. Machines are back.

Exports fell 5.7%. GDP loses out.

### Oil from the reserve

The BEA attributes the drop in exports mainly to goods, led by petroleum.

Less oil goes out.

Washington is also selling crude from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The sales are down.

The detail matters.

The national accounts deduct them. Selling less inflates government spending.

The public rebound is federal.

The release specifies that these sales have no direct effect on GDP.

The figure is clean. The border is in there.

## The Fed looks to December

The Fed did not move.

On October 28, it left its benchmark rate in the 3.75%-4% range. It acknowledges that inflation “remains elevated.”

The rate holds. Policymakers want more data, according to CNN.

Some Fed officials put the non-inflationary growth rate at around 2%, Reuters writes.

The summer beats it. The Fed sees it.

### A hike already made

Last month, the central bank raised rates for the first time in three years, CNN recalls.

That was in September. Investment did not slow.

“The Fed is tightening the screws,” says Olu Sonola. But “the economy has yet to get the memo.”

Economists expected another hike in December, Reuters writes.

CNN sees room for a hike of at least a quarter point. NPR describes added pressure.

Sonola sees one more reason.

December is coming.

### The AI bet

Economists cited by Reuters say this GDP is probably not a true picture of the economy.

The doubt is serious. AI weighs heavily.

Tech firms have borrowed huge sums over the past year for AI.

Debt funds the build-out.

Mark Zandi, of Moody’s Analytics, told NPR of “a very, very fragile growth.”

“It doesn’t feel like we’re kicking it in on all cylinders,” he added.

The engine coughs.

He cites tariffs and the war against Iran. Washington signs both.

## On Tuesday, voters decide Congress

Tuesday decides Congress.

Reuters notes the contrast with households’ downbeat assessment.

The country doubts.

Donald Trump’s approval ratings hit a record low. Consumer sentiment plunges.

### A president judged on two dials

Trump can wave the 3.4%. He owes it partly to AI and to the consumer.

The tank is his too.

The White House says it works every day to bring gasoline down. The receipt will judge.

One can back this war against the Iranian regime. Its price at the pump gets published all the same.

### I refuse to round

I refuse to round.

The 3.4% is true. The shrinking paycheck is too. Neither one disappears.

You may read the speedometer on Tuesday. Your neighbor will read the fuel gauge.

Each one votes.

## November 25, after the vote

The 3.4% has an expiry date. Voters go before it. The calendar wants it so.

### One figure, two readings

The speedometer says America is driving fast. The gauge says it is running on reserve.

Tuesday decides.

### The quarter’s profits

On November 25, the bureau will also release corporate profits for the quarter. It will be back.

The same morning, the BEA will release October income and spending. The paycheck will get its figure.

*The 3.4% reaches the ballot box before its second estimate.*

Growth is at 3.4% before the vote, and gas is still above $4.

On Tuesday, which dial will you trust, Washington’s speedometer or your own gauge?

**By Maxime Marquette, columnist**

## Columnist's transparency note

### Editorial stance

I am not a journalist but a **columnist and analyst**. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies.

I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. **I claim analytical clarity**, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events.

### Method and sources

This text keeps the basic distinction between **verified facts and interpretive analysis**. The rule never changes: a factual claim is published only when a verifiable source supports it, and the sources this article actually used are listed under **Sources**, never here.

**Primary source families** used by the publication, when the story has them: official statements from governments and international institutions, public statements by political leaders, reports from intergovernmental organisations, dispatches from recognised international news agencies.

**Secondary source families**: specialised publications, internationally recognised news media, analyses from established research institutions, reports from industry organisations.

When an article cites statistical, economic or geopolitical data, it comes from the institutions that produce it (intergovernmental organisations, central banks, national statistics offices), and the exact institution is named under **Sources**.

### Nature of the analysis

The analyses, interpretations and perspectives in the analytical sections of this article are a **critical, contextual synthesis** based on the information available, the trends observed and the expert comments cited in the sources consulted.

My role is to interpret these facts, to set them in the context of today's geopolitical and economic dynamics, and to give them a coherent meaning within the larger story of the changes shaping our time. These analyses reflect expertise built through continuous observation of international affairs and an understanding of the strategic mechanisms that drive global actors.

This article describes a documented state of affairs on its publication date, not a prediction: later developments may shift its outlook. No update is promised in advance; when an article is corrected or completed, the change is dated in the text.

## Sources:

### Primary Sources:

- [U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis — GDP advance estimate, third quarter 2026, October 29, 2026](https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-3rd-quarter-2026)

- [U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis — personal income and outlays, September 2026, October 29, 2026](https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-september-2026)

- [The White House — President Trump Secures Major Deals to Unleash American Energy and Cut Gas Prices at the Pump, October 25, 2026](https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/10/president-trump-secures-major-deals-to-unleash-american-energy-and-cut-gas-prices-at-the-pump/)

### Secondary Sources:

- [The Guardian — US economy grows faster than expected just ahead of elections, October 29, 2026](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/oct/29/economy-growth-third-quarter)

- [NPR — US economy doing well with days to go before the midterms, October 29, 2026](https://www.npr.org/2026/10/29/nx-s1-6021008/economy-gdp-inflation-midterms-voters-affordability)

- [CNN Business — stronger growth but higher inflation in the last snapshot before the midterms, October 29, 2026](https://edition.cnn.com/2026/10/29/economy/us-economy-pce-inflation-gdp)

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Source: Maxime Marquette, MadMax. When citing, name the author and link https://mad-max.co/en/article/column-3-4-growth-less-than-a-week-before-the-vote-and-gas-still-above-4