# Dear Ankara, the West Is Finally Ready to Turn Promises Into Factories

> Dear skeptical reader of Western resolve, I write to you just days before the NATO summit in Ankara, set for July 7

- Author: Maxime Marquette
- Publisher: MadMax (https://mad-max.co)
- Section: Open letter
- Published: 2026-07-06
- Canonical URL: https://mad-max.co/en/article/cher-ankara-l-occident-s-apprete-enfin-a-transformer-ses-promesses-en-usines

## Introduction: an open letter to those who still doubt NATO's resolve

### What Mark Rutte is about to announce

Dear skeptical reader of Western resolve, I write to you just days before the **NATO summit in Ankara**, set for **July 7 and 8, 2026**, as Secretary General **Mark Rutte** already announced, on **June 25** from the **Atlantic Council** in Washington, that **"tens of billions of dollars"** in new defense **contracts** will be formalized at this gathering. His exact words deserve to be quoted in full: **"We will announce tens of billions of dollars in new contracts, memorandums of understanding, letters of intent, but also major contracts currently being signed."**

This **summit**, described by several analysts as the starting point of a genuine **"military-industrial revolution,"** will not be limited to hollow speeches about transatlantic unity: for the first time in years, it will turn abstract budget commitments into concrete, measurable, deliverable industrial capacity.

### Why this letter is addressed to you, specifically

If you are among those who think **NATO** is nothing more than a costly, symbolic bureaucracy, this letter is for you. I want to show you, with the numbers to back it up, that something tangible is taking shape in **Ankara**, and that this **summit** could well mark a turning point in how the West actually finances its own defense against the threats piling up on its eastern borders.

I am not claiming here that everything in NATO's machinery is perfect, far from it, but I also refuse to give in to the easy cynicism that systematically dismisses every Western initiative just because it sometimes arrives late.

*I think skepticism toward NATO, however historically justified, now has to reckon with new facts: when a secretary general publicly announces tens of billions in contracts before the summit even opens, that is no longer empty talk — it is a quantified, verifiable commitment.*

## What this Ankara summit really means for the defense industry

### An industry forum dedicated from day one

On **July 7**, starting at **10 a.m.**, the **NATO Summit Defence Industry Forum (NSDIF26)** will open, an event entirely devoted to the now-established goal of raising defense investment to **5% of GDP** among member states, in line with the commitment made at the **2025 Hague summit**, which sets a **2035** horizon for reaching this ambitious target.

That 5% target breaks down into two distinct parts: **3.5%** going directly to traditional defense spending, and **1.5%** allocated to resilience and military mobility, a technical but essential distinction for understanding how **allies** intend to structure this budgetary buildup over the coming decade.

### Clearly identified areas of investment

According to available information, the new **contracts** announced in **Ankara** will primarily target three strategic areas: **deep-strike capabilities** via long-range missiles, **modernizing air defense** against the growing threat of drones and missiles, and developing **autonomous systems**, particularly military drones, a sector where the West is trying to close the gap with rivals such as **Russia** and China.

This focus on concrete capabilities, rather than generic budget pledges, reflects a genuine strategic maturing of the Alliance, which finally seems to be turning declaratory ambitions into precise, measurable industrial priorities.

*I believe this precision in targeting investment, deep strike, air defense, drones, is exactly what NATO has been missing for years: clear priorities instead of scattered budgets spread thin across too many competing national projects.*

## Aid to Ukraine at the heart of the financial discussions

### A colossal aid package in the works

Beyond the Alliance's internal industrial **contracts**, the **Ankara** **summit** is also expected to finalize a military aid package for **Ukraine** valued at roughly **70 billion euros a year** for **2026-2027**, or a total near **140 billion euros** over two years, a figure that speaks to the scale of Western commitment to Kyiv in the face of Russia's ongoing aggression.

A significant share of that funding, about **30 billion euros a year**, is expected to flow through a **European loan** mechanism, a financial structure that pools risk among EU member states while speeding up the delivery of funds for Ukraine's urgent military needs.

### Zelensky present but outside the main plenary

President **Volodymyr Zelensky**, whose presence at this **summit** remains highly symbolic, will not, however, take part in the main plenary session of heads of state and government, a decision confirmed by **Mark Rutte** as early as **June 17**. He will still take part in several events on the sidelines of the summit, including a **NATO-Ukraine Council** dinner set for July 7 at **7:45 p.m.**, along with an appearance planned directly at the Defense Industry Forum.

This arrangement, which might at first glance seem to sideline **Ukraine**, actually reflects a delicate diplomatic balance between maintaining visible support for Kyiv and managing the internal sensitivities of certain **allies** regarding Ukraine's exact status within NATO's structures.

*I think Zelensky's presence on the sidelines rather than at the heart of the plenary should not be read as a retreat in Western support: it is a pragmatic diplomatic adjustment, not an abandonment, and the announced financial aid figures amply confirm that.*

## "Burden shifting" finally named officially

### A historic acknowledgment in the summit declaration

For the first time, according to the analysis of **Oana Lungescu**, a researcher at the British think tank **RUSI**, the official declaration from the **Ankara** **summit** is expected to explicitly name the concept of **"burden shifting"** — that is, the gradual transfer of the West's defense burden from the United States to European **allies**, a dynamic that has been accelerating for years but had never been formally acknowledged in an official Alliance document.

Technical as it may sound, this textual acknowledgment actually represents a major paradigm shift in how **NATO** conceives of its own defense architecture, explicitly stating that Europe must now assume a growing and lasting share of its own collective security.

### Numbers that already confirm this trend

European **allies** and Canada already increased their core defense spending by roughly **139 billion dollars** last year, a rise of about **20%**, a significant jump that predates the official announcement of the **burden-shifting** concept and shows this dynamic was already underway before it was even formally written into a NATO document.

This European budgetary acceleration, if it continues at the current pace, could structurally reshape the Alliance's financial balance by the end of the decade, gradually reducing the historical reliance on the American budgetary umbrella.

*I consider this budget rebalancing, however late it comes, excellent news for NATO's long-term credibility: an alliance where every member carries its fair share of the financial burden is structurally more resilient than one dependent on a single dominant contributor.*

## Donald Trump's ambiguous but necessary role in this dynamic

### Presidential pressure that is finally paying off

It has to be acknowledged, without excessive indulgence but with honesty, that the pressure **Donald Trump** has exerted for years on European **allies** to significantly raise their defense spending has directly contributed to today's budgetary acceleration, this repeated insistence eventually producing concrete results that neither his predecessors nor internal European appeals had managed to achieve with the same effectiveness.

This dynamic, uncomfortable as it may be for some traditional supporters of diplomatic multilateralism, illustrates a hard-to-dispute strategic reality: American firmness on burden-sharing has accelerated a transformation Europe had been putting off for decades out of budgetary comfort.

### An essential distinction never to forget

I want to make clear, with the same honesty, that this acknowledgment of Trump's positive role on the military and NATO file does not extend in any way to his domestic American policies, marked by persistent controversies over public health, the functioning of the Department of Justice, and multiple conflicts of interest that continue to undermine democratic trust in the United States.

On the military and NATO front specifically, however, the facts speak for themselves: the pressure applied has produced measurable European budgetary acceleration, and it would be intellectually dishonest not to acknowledge that simply because the source of that pressure remains controversial on other issues.

*I always try to separate the files rather than judge a leader wholesale: on military and NATO matters, Trump's firmness has produced tangible results for the West, even as I remain critical of his domestic excesses on other fronts.*

## The two-day summit program in detail

### A first day dense with announcements

On **July 7**, besides the morning opening of the Defense Industry Forum, a joint statement from **Mark Rutte** and **Volodymyr Zelensky** is scheduled for **2 p.m.**, followed in the evening by the **NATO-Ukraine** Council dinner mentioned earlier, a sequence of events that illustrates the diplomatic and industrial density of this first day of the **summit**.

This methodical scheduling, alternating economic announcements with diplomatic gestures toward **Ukraine**, reflects organizers' clear intent to maximize the summit's media and strategic impact from the very start, rather than spreading major announcements thinly across both days.

### A second day devoted to final decisions

On **July 8**, the **North Atlantic Council** meeting bringing together all heads of state and government will begin at **11:15 a.m.**, ahead of **Mark Rutte**'s closing press conference set for **3 p.m.**, the moment when all announcements of **contracts** and financial commitments are expected to be formally consolidated and publicly communicated to the international press gathered in **Ankara** for the occasion.

This precise schedule, made public several days in advance, reflects a well-oiled NATO organization, far from the sometimes caricatured image of a slow, disorganized international bureaucracy.

*I find it reassuring to see how precisely this summit has been organized: when an international institution publishes such a detailed schedule days in advance, it reflects real confidence in the substance of what is coming, not last-minute improvisation.*

## Turkey, a strategic host for a summit of major symbolic weight

### Ankara, a geographic choice heavy with meaning

Choosing **Turkey** as host country for this **summit** is no accident: a NATO member since **1952**, **Turkey** occupies a unique geostrategic position at the crossroads of Europe, the Middle East, and the Black Sea, a location that carries particular weight in the current context of prolonged confrontation with **Russia** along the Alliance's eastern flank.

This Turkish geographic position, combined with its rapidly growing defense industrial capacity, particularly in military drones where the country has established itself as a leading global player, makes **Turkey** an increasingly indispensable industrial partner for the new defense **contracts** announced at this **summit**.

### A symbol of unity despite past internal tensions

Despite occasional diplomatic tensions over the years between **Ankara** and certain Western members of the Alliance, holding this major **summit** on Turkish soil sends a strong signal of cohesion, a reminder that NATO's unity, though sometimes tested by isolated disagreements, remains solid enough to organize an event of this strategic and financial magnitude.

This symbolic choice also reinforces **Turkey**'s position as an indispensable pivot for broader European security, a role the country appears determined to fully embrace amid a geopolitical context marked by the war in **Ukraine** and persistent tensions with Moscow.

*I think this choice of Ankara as host city deserves praise: it is a reminder that Western unity is not confined to Western European capitals, and that Turkey, despite its own diplomatic complexities, remains an essential strategic pillar of transatlantic security architecture.*

## Western defense manufacturers gearing up

### A once-in-a-generation commercial opportunity for the sector

For major Western defense industrial groups, this **summit** represents a commercial opportunity of rarely seen scale, with financial analysts cited by **CNBC** already noting a notable rise in the stock valuations of European defense companies even ahead of the official announcement of the **contracts** expected in **Ankara**.

This positive market anticipation, observable for several weeks, reflects financial markets' confidence that the budget commitments announced by **Mark Rutte** will actually materialize, an economic signal that further reinforces the credibility of this pre-**summit** announcement.

### An industry that now has to match the pace of the announcements

The real challenge, beyond simply signing **contracts**, will be the Western defense industry's actual ability to deliver on these commitments within a reasonable timeframe, with several experts already pointing to existing strain on supply chains for munitions, military electronic components, and skilled labor specialized in these advanced sectors.

This question of real production capacity, distinct from mere declared budgetary will, will ultimately determine whether the Ankara announcements translate into a tangible and rapid strengthening of Western military capabilities, or remain partly theoretical for lack of sufficient industrial means in the short term.

*I remain cautious on this specific point: announcing billions in contracts is one thing, delivering on them within timeframes matched to today's geopolitical urgency is another, and it is on this concrete ground that the West will now have to prove its industrial credibility.*

## What this summit means for deterrence against Russia

### A direct reinforcement of the eastern defensive posture

The announced investments in **air defense** and **deep-strike capabilities** fit directly into a logic of strengthening **deterrence** against **Russia**, whose ongoing aggression against **Ukraine** reminds every **NATO** member daily of the urgency of maintaining credible technological and numerical military superiority on the Alliance's eastern flank.

This logic of **deterrence**, backed by concrete **contracts** rather than mere statements of intent, sends a clear message to **Vladimir Putin**: the West is not weakening in its military support for **Ukraine** or in strengthening its own collective defensive capabilities, contrary to certain hopes the Kremlin has voiced about a gradual fraying of Western solidarity.

### A message also aimed at China and Iran

Beyond the immediate context of the war in **Ukraine**, this strengthening of Western defense capabilities also sends a strategic signal to other hostile actors, notably **China** and **Iran**, whose respective regional and global ambitions require credible, technologically advanced Western **deterrence** across several theaters at once.

This multilateral dimension of Western **deterrence**, which is therefore not limited to the European context alone, shows clearly why this **Ankara** **summit** reaches well beyond a simple regional meeting to become an event of truly global significance for the international strategic balance.

*I think this multilateral dimension of deterrence, often underestimated in analyses focused solely on Ukraine, deserves greater emphasis: every contract signed in Ankara sends a simultaneous signal to Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran about Western determination not to cede strategic ground.*

## The legitimate criticisms accompanying these announcements

### The risk of a gap between promise and delivery

It would be dishonest of this open letter to skip over the legitimate criticism raised by some defense experts, who point out that previous NATO summit announcements have not always been followed by swift, complete execution, with several industrial projects announced at earlier summits having faced significant delays in their actual rollout on the ground.

This methodological caution, well grounded in the Alliance's historical track record, calls for continued vigilance from observers and Western citizens alike, who will need to watch closely in the months after the **summit** whether the tens of **billions** announced actually translate into concrete, measurable military deliveries.

### Greater transparency that reassures nonetheless

Despite these legitimate reservations, the unusual precision of **Mark Rutte**'s advance announcements, including specific figures and a detailed schedule shared days ahead of time, is itself a mark of seriousness superior to what was seen at previous NATO **summits**, where announcements tended to stay vaguer and harder to verify after the fact.

This greater transparency, if it holds up once the **summit** is over, could help restore some of the Western public's trust in an institution sometimes perceived, rightly or wrongly, as technocratic and disconnected from the concrete concerns of the citizens who fund these defense investments.

*I think this need for post-summit follow-through is essential: applauding Ankara's announcements without later demanding accountability for their execution would mean falling into the very trap I criticize among those too quick to condemn NATO outright.*

## Why this summit matters more than previous ones

### A geopolitical context that leaves no room for wait-and-see

Unlike some earlier NATO **summits** held in a relatively calm environment, the one in **Ankara** comes as the war in **Ukraine** enters its fifth year, tensions with China over Taiwan remain high, and Iran continues to pose a major destabilizing regional threat in the Middle East — a combination of factors that makes the urgency of these industrial announcements far more concrete than at previous NATO gatherings.

This buildup of simultaneous tensions across several distinct geopolitical theaters explains why Western leaders can no longer settle for symbolic statements of intent: today's strategic urgency demands tangible, rapid, and verifiable industrial results, checkable by all **allies** and international observers.

### A credibility test for the entire Western security architecture

This **summit** ultimately represents a major credibility test for the entire Western security architecture: if the tens of **billions** announced actually materialize into signed **contracts** and concrete deliveries in the following months, NATO will have shown it can turn rhetoric into tangible military action against adversaries who, for their part, never fail to translate their ambitions into real military capability.

Conversely, failing to deliver on these announcements would send a dangerous signal of weakness to adversaries who watch closely for any sign of hesitation or division within the Atlantic Alliance, making the stakes of this **summit** all the more critical for Western collective security over the medium and long term.

*I believe this summit, more than any other in recent years, will be judged on its ability to deliver rather than the quality of its speeches: the West no longer has the luxury of settling for good intentions against rivals who have been acting concretely for a long time.*

## What this letter hopes to spark in you

### A call for informed vigilance rather than lazy cynicism

I write this open letter to you, dear reader, not to convince you blindly of NATO's perfection, but to invite you to watch closely, in the weeks following this Ankara summit, whether the tens of **billions** of dollars announced by **Mark Rutte** actually translate into signed **contracts**, concrete military deliveries, and a measurable strengthening of the West's defensive posture.

This informed vigilance, demanding but constructive, strikes me as far more useful to Western democracy than the lazy cynicism that dismisses every institutional initiative outright simply because previous ones have sometimes disappointed; it is precisely this collective demand that can push our institutions to genuinely improve.

### A final invitation to keep watching closely in the coming weeks

In the coming weeks, I will keep closely tracking how these **Ankara** announcements actually play out, and I commit to coming back to you, dear reader, with an honest assessment of what was actually delivered versus what was merely promised, in keeping with the factual rigor that must always come before enthusiasm or circumstantial pessimism.

It is this demand for continuous verification, rather than simple endorsement or simple rejection, that must now guide our collective relationship with institutions as essential as **NATO** for the security of our democratic Western societies.

*I personally commit, as a columnist, to revisiting this story once the summit is over: the credibility of my own work depends on this kind of follow-through, just as NATO's credibility will depend on its ability to honor what it is about to announce in Ankara.*

## What the most exposed allies expect in concrete terms

### Poland and the Baltic states on the front line of expectations

Among the Alliance members watching most closely for concrete results from this **summit** are **Poland** and the **Baltic states**, whose immediate geographic proximity to **Russia** makes every announced reinforcement of **air defense** and deep-strike capability particularly significant for their own short-term national security.

These countries, which have long exceeded the 2% of GDP defense-spending target for years, hope the new industrial **contracts** announced in **Ankara** will quickly translate into concrete deliveries of modern **air defense** systems, an urgent need given the rising frequency of drone incidents and airspace violations reported in recent months.

### Western solidarity put to a concrete test

For these frontline **allies**, this **summit** is far more than a diplomatic exercise: it is a concrete test of Western solidarity at a moment when the Russian threat remains immediate and tangible, unlike other Alliance members geographically further from the Ukrainian theater of operations and thus sometimes less pressed to see these commitments materialize quickly.

This difference in perception between frontline **allies** and more distant ones illustrates well the complexity of managing priorities within an alliance as vast as **NATO**, where perceived urgency varies significantly depending on proximity to the immediate Russian threat.

*I think the West must pay particular attention to the expectations of Poland and the Baltic states: they would be the first to live with the consequences of a failure of this Ankara promise, and their voice deserves weight proportional to their real exposure to the Russian threat.*

## The expected impact on member states' national budgets

### An inevitable domestic budgetary strain

Ramping up these defense investments will not come without consequences for member states' national budgets, with several European governments now having to weigh funding these new military **contracts** against maintaining existing social programs, a budgetary balancing act already sparking internal political debate in several European capitals.

This budgetary tension, though rarely highlighted in official NATO communications, represents a major political issue for the long-term sustainability of this rising defense-spending trajectory, with several European opposition parties beginning to publicly question the pace set by the **5% of GDP** target by 2035.

### An investment presented as profitable in the long run

Advocates of this budgetary trajectory, including several NATO officials themselves, argue that these defense investments also generate significant positive economic spillovers, notably in the form of skilled industrial job creation and stronger national technological capacity, economic arguments that complement the purely security-based justification for this budgetary buildup.

This positive economic dimension, if it holds up once the **Ankara** **contracts** are actually implemented, could help ease some of the domestic political resistance currently seen in several European member states facing otherwise significant budgetary constraints.

*I think this domestic budgetary tension deserves to be taken seriously rather than ignored: the durability of the Western defense effort will depend as much on the strength of each member country's internal political consensus as on the official announcements made collectively in Ankara.*

## Conclusion: see you after Ankara for the reckoning

### An ambitious promise that must now be kept

This open letter closes on a note of cautious hope: the **Ankara** **summit** offers, on paper, a rare opportunity to turn years of often frustrating NATO budget debates into concrete, measurable industrial commitments, capable of genuinely strengthening the West's collective defensive posture amid an increasingly unstable and threatening geopolitical environment.

The responsibility now rests on the shoulders of the Western leaders present in **Ankara**: turning the tens of **billions** of dollars announced into actually signed **contracts**, then into concrete military deliveries within timeframes matched to today's strategic urgency, or this promise will join the long list of partially honored NATO commitments.

### One final invitation to stay watchful and demanding

I invite you, then, dear reader, not to let your attention drop once the cameras go dark and the speeches in **Ankara** end: it is in the months following this **summit** that the credibility of this historic announcement will truly be decided, and it is this collective, informed, and demanding vigilance that will determine whether the West has finally managed to turn its words into real industrial power.

See you soon, for an honest reckoning of what this **Ankara** **summit** will truly have changed for Western collective security.

*I close this letter with a simple conviction: in Ankara, the West has a rare opportunity to prove, through concrete industrial action rather than speeches, that its collective resolve against today's threats is not merely a diplomatic facade.*

**By Maxime Marquette, columnist**

## Columnist's transparency note

### Editorial stance

I am not a journalist but a **columnist and analyst**. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies.

I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. **I claim analytical clarity**, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events.

### Method and sources

This text keeps the basic distinction between **verified facts and interpretive analysis**. The rule never changes: a factual claim is published only when a verifiable source supports it, and the sources this article actually used are listed under **Sources**, never here.

**Primary source families** used by the publication, when the story has them: official statements from governments and international institutions, public statements by political leaders, reports from intergovernmental organisations, dispatches from recognised international news agencies.

**Secondary source families**: specialised publications, internationally recognised news media, analyses from established research institutions, reports from industry organisations.

When an article cites statistical, economic or geopolitical data, it comes from the institutions that produce it (intergovernmental organisations, central banks, national statistics offices), and the exact institution is named under **Sources**.

### Nature of the analysis

The analyses, interpretations and perspectives in the analytical sections of this article are a **critical, contextual synthesis** based on the information available, the trends observed and the expert comments cited in the sources consulted.

My role is to interpret these facts, to set them in the context of today's geopolitical and economic dynamics, and to give them a coherent meaning within the larger story of the changes shaping our time. These analyses reflect expertise built through continuous observation of international affairs and an understanding of the strategic mechanisms that drive global actors.

This article describes a documented state of affairs on its publication date, not a prediction: later developments may shift its outlook. No update is promised in advance; when an article is corrected or completed, the change is dated in the text.

## Sources

### Primary sources

- Global Affairs — Beyond defense spending: what's at stake at NATO Ankara, July 2026

- CNBC — Europe defense stocks rearmament, July 1, 2026

- NATO — Overview, 2026 NATO Summit in Ankara, July 2026

### Secondary sources

- Forbes — What defense leaders will discuss at the 2026 NATO summit, July 1, 2026

- Reuters — NATO's Rutte says billions in new defense contracts will be announced at summit, June 25, 2026

- Wikipedia — 2026 Ankara NATO summit, July 2026

- Anadolu Agency — Factbox, NATO defense spending, where allies stand ahead of Ankara summit, July 2026

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Source: Maxime Marquette, MadMax. When citing, name the author and link https://mad-max.co/en/article/cher-ankara-l-occident-s-apprete-enfin-a-transformer-ses-promesses-en-usines