# ANALYSIS: Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka, the Axis Deciding the Fate of Donbas

> Few people outside specialized military circles knew the names Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka before this war turned them into symbols of Ukrainian resistance in the Donbas.

- Author: Maxime Marquette
- Publisher: MadMax (https://mad-max.co)
- Section: Analysis
- Published: 2026-07-20
- Canonical URL: https://mad-max.co/en/article/analysis-pokrovsk-kostiantynivka-the-axis-deciding-the-fate-of-donbas

## Key takeaways

- On July 9, 2026, the Ukrainian General Staff reported 268 clashes across the front, with the heaviest concentration in the Pokrovsk sector, according to Ukrainska Pravda.
- The author says Russian command has deliberately targeted this axis as the gateway to the last major population centers Kyiv holds in Donetsk oblast, and that the two towns are key logistics crossroads.
- ISW assessments describe a slow, methodical Russian advance based on attrition, while Ukrainian forces slow but cannot fully stop it, constrained by ammunition and personnel shortages.
- Russian authorities have repeatedly claimed Pokrovsk's capture, which independent sources have not confirmed.
- The author links the fighting to air-defense needs and Western support, and draws parallels with Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

## Introduction: two city names carrying more weight than they should

### An axis that has become the war's most watched front line

Few people outside specialized military circles knew the names **Pokrovsk** and **Kostiantynivka** before this war turned them into symbols of Ukrainian resistance in the **Donbas**. Today, this axis absorbs a disproportionate share of both sides' **military** attention: on **July 9, 2026**, the Ukrainian General Staff reported two hundred sixty-eight clashes across the entire **front** in a single day, with the fiercest fighting concentrated precisely in this sector, according to **Ukrainska Pravda**.

This concentration of violence is not accidental: it reflects a deliberate **strategic** choice by Russian command to break through on this precise axis, seen as the gateway to the last major population centers still held by **Kyiv** in Donetsk oblast. This analysis attempts to understand why this specific axis has become, according to several independent military assessments, the place where a disproportionate share of the Donbas's future is being decided.

*Two cities almost nobody knew before 2024 have become, in 2026, one of the places where the actual future of the Donbas is being decided. It is this gap between name recognition and real importance that I want to correct in this analysis.*

### A battle documented by several converging sources

The Ukrainian General Staff's daily reports, the regular assessments from the **Institute for the Study of War**, and the ongoing coverage from outlets like **Censor.net** converge to confirm the unusual intensity of **fighting** in this precise sector over several months. This convergence of independent sources strengthens the reliability of the overall picture this analysis seeks to build.

It must be noted, however, with the necessary methodological rigor, that the precise tactical situation on the ground is evolving rapidly, and that territorial-control estimates can vary from one source to another — an essential nuance that must accompany any reading of this ongoing **battle**.

*Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka are not just names on a military map — they are the places where it is decided, day after day, whether Ukraine's Donbas still holds or starts to give way. It is that gravity I want to convey, without ever exaggerating it.*

## The geography that explains the strategic stakes

### A logistics crossroads impossible to bypass

The **strategic** value of the **Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka** axis rests first on its geographic position: these two cities are essential logistics crossroads for supplying Ukrainian forces deployed farther east in Donetsk oblast, which explains why Russian command has targeted this axis with particular insistence for more than a year.

The capture of these two towns would allow the Russian army to cut critical supply lines and directly threaten other Ukrainian urban centers farther west, making this **axis** disproportionately **important** relative to its modest population size compared with cities like **Kharkiv** or **Odesa**.

### A battle for ruins that still matters

It must be acknowledged, plainly, that the intense **fighting** waged on this axis for months has reduced much of these towns to ruins — a brutal paradox of this war, where fierce battles continue for cities that the fighting itself has already largely destroyed. This paradox does nothing to diminish the real strategic stakes this axis holds for Ukraine's **defensive** structure across the entire **Donbas**.

This analysis refuses to give in to an easy cynicism that would minimize the importance of this battle on the grounds that the towns involved are already largely destroyed: the strategic value of terrain is not measured only by the state of its buildings, but by its position within an army's overall **defensive** architecture.

*They are fighting over ruins, and that is precisely what makes this battle so tragic and so revealing of this war's nature: the value of terrain does not vanish with its buildings — it is measured in supply lines and defensive positions.*

## The intensity of fighting, documented day after day

### Two hundred sixty-eight clashes in a single day

The figure of two hundred sixty-eight clashes reported by the Ukrainian General Staff for July 9 alone, with a particular concentration in the **Pokrovsk** sector according to **Ukrainska Pravda**, illustrates a combat intensity far above the average observed on other stretches of the **front** during the same period. This daily level of engagement places considerable pressure on the Ukrainian units deployed in this sector, often understrength against Russian numerical superiority.

Earlier reports, such as **Censor.net's** account of seventy-three clashes in a single day concentrated on **Pokrovsk** and **Sloviansk**, confirm that this intensity is not an isolated spike but part of a sustained trend across several months on this precise stretch of the **front**.

### Pressure that has not eased despite diplomacy

This combat intensity has held, according to the **Institute for the Study of War's** assessment of July 8, without notable let-up even during the period when the **NATO** summit was taking place in **Ankara** — confirming that diplomatic decisions made thousands of kilometers away have, in the short term, no immediate effect on the tactical reality on the ground in the **Donbas**.

It is this brutal continuity of Russian **military** **pressure**, independent of the Western diplomatic calendar, that must shape any serious analysis of the situation on this axis, rather than a reading that would give excessive weight to summit announcements alone.

*Two hundred sixty-eight clashes in one day — that figure should be on the front page of every Western outlet covering this NATO summit. Instead, it too often stays a lost line in a daily military report that few people read.*

## What ISW documents about the Russian advance

### A slow but methodical advance

Successive assessments from the **Institute for the Study of War** document a slow but methodical Russian advance on this **axis** over several months, characterized by limited but steady **territorial** gains rather than spectacular breakthroughs. This Russian method, costly in human losses according to Western estimates, relies on numerical superiority and a determination to progressively exhaust Ukrainian defenses rather than on rapid maneuver.

This Russian approach, documented consistently across several successive **ISW** assessments, illustrates a **military** doctrine that favors attrition over speed — a strategy that, while costly in men for **Moscow**, continues to produce incremental territorial gains on this precise stretch of the **front**.

### Ukrainian resistance that slows without fully stopping it

Facing this methodical pressure, Ukrainian forces manage, according to the same assessments, to significantly slow the Russian advance without being able to fully stop it — a tactical reality that directly reflects the ammunition and personnel shortages documented across the entire Ukrainian **front** during this phase of the war.

This **resistance**, heroic in principle but limited by real material constraints, illustrates once again the gap between the documented determination of Ukrainian defenders and the limited means at their disposal to turn that determination into a full halt of the enemy's advance in this sector.

*Slowing without stopping — that is the tragic summary of this battle: Ukrainian soldiers are doing more, with less, than their material situation should allow. Unfortunately, that is not always enough to reverse the trend on the ground.*

## Kostiantynivka's role in Ukraine's defensive architecture

### A key city for defending the rest of the Donbas

**Kostiantynivka** occupies a particular position in Ukraine's **defensive** architecture: its eventual fall would potentially open the way to increased pressure on other urban centers farther west in Donetsk oblast, which explains the particular insistence of Ukrainian command on maintaining solid defensive positions around this town despite the constant pressure documented in this sector.

This strategic importance also explains why Russian command concentrates so many resources on this precise axis rather than spreading its efforts across the entire **front**: breaking through at **Kostiantynivka** would represent a disproportionate strategic gain relative to the **military** effort needed to achieve it, according to the logic documented by several Western military analysts.

### A civilian population caught between two fires

What remains of the civilian population in the **Kostiantynivka** area continues to live under the constant threat of shelling, in conditions this text refuses to dramatize beyond what the available reports allow one to establish with certainty, while still acknowledging the real and **documented** gravity of their daily situation.

This human reality, often reduced to statistics in the **military** coverage of this battle, deserves to be recalled: behind every front line documented by the **ISW** are civilians who did not choose to live at the heart of this war's most contested axis.

*We talk a great deal about front lines and percentages of territorial control, and far too little about the civilians left stranded behind those figures, in Kostiantynivka as elsewhere in this Donbas that has been battered for more than four years.*

## Pokrovsk, a symbol of resistance that has outlasted expectations

### A city Moscow has been announcing captured for months

The **battle** of **Pokrovsk** illustrates a recurring pattern of this war: Russian authorities have regularly announced the imminent or actual capture of this city for several months, announcements that documented facts on the ground from independent sources have, to this day, never fully confirmed — revealing a now-familiar gap between the **Kremlin's** messaging and verifiable tactical reality.

This prolonged resistance, well beyond the timelines initially anticipated by many military analysts at the start of this specific offensive, testifies to a Ukrainian defensive **capacity** that continues to surprise, even against a backdrop of material shortages widely documented across the entire **front**.

### A resistance with a considerable human cost

This prolonged resistance must, however, never be presented as a cost-free **victory**: it comes at the price of considerable Ukrainian human losses, in some of the most difficult urban **combat** documented in this conflict — a reality this analysis refuses to downplay in the name of a simplified heroic narrative.

It is this balance between legitimate recognition of the defenders' documented courage and honesty about the human price paid for this **resistance** that this analysis seeks to maintain, without ever turning a human tragedy into a mere feel-good propaganda story, even when the cause being defended is just.

*Every extra month of resistance at Pokrovsk is a real tactical victory, but I refuse to celebrate it without also naming its human price. The documented courage of Ukraine's defenders must never be used to soften their losses.*

## The human dimension: what troop concentrations reveal

### Russian forces massed on a narrow axis

Several military analyses, including those picked up by specialized outlets covering this precise sector, document a significant concentration of Russian personnel in the **Kostiantynivka-Druzhkivka** area, a mass of troops deployed specifically to maintain constant **pressure** on this axis despite the documented **losses** sustained over months of fighting.

This troop concentration reflects the strategic priority **Moscow** assigns to this precise axis, potentially at the expense of other sectors of the **front** where Russian pressure could be less sustained for lack of sufficient human and material resources to maintain several major offensives simultaneously.

### A war of attrition wearing down both sides

This concentration of forces confirms that the battle for the **Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka** axis constitutes a classic war of attrition, where each side seeks to wear down the other's human and material resources rather than achieve a quick decisive breakthrough — a tactical reality that explains the relatively slow evolution of the **front** line despite the daily intensity of the fighting.

This attrition dynamic imposes **strategic** patience on both sides, but it weighs differently on each: **Russia** has a larger demographic reserve to absorb its **losses**, while **Ukraine** must manage this same attrition with a significantly smaller population — a demographic asymmetry that weighs heavily on **Kyiv's** long-term strategic calculations.

*A war of attrition between a country of one hundred forty million people and a country with a fraction of that population is not a fair fight on demographics alone. That is precisely why Western material support remains, on this axis as elsewhere, absolutely decisive.*

## The logistical stakes this battle reveals

### Supply lines under constant pressure

The battle for the **Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka** **axis** also reveals the crucial importance of supply lines in this modern war: the roads and railways crossing this region remain essential for supplying ammunition, fuel, and reinforcements to Ukrainian units deployed farther east, which explains why Russian command systematically targets this logistics infrastructure alongside its direct assaults on defensive positions.

This logistics dimension, less visible in media coverage focused solely on **territorial** gains or losses, nonetheless constitutes one of the most decisive factors in the likely medium-term outcome of this **battle**, according to several military analysts specializing in this conflict's logistical questions.

### A vulnerability both sides seek to exploit

Each side methodically seeks to identify and strike the other's logistical vulnerabilities on this precise axis, a dimension of modern warfare that echoes the strategic importance, documented elsewhere, of Ukraine's campaign against Russian refineries — applied here on a more localized tactical scale, but no less decisive for the outcome of the **fighting**.

This analysis holds that mastery of logistics lines, far more than mere control of the urban ruins themselves, will likely determine the medium-term outcome of this battle for the **Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka** **axis** — an essential nuance often absent from the more superficial media summaries of this war.

*We look at maps and count square kilometers won or lost, but the real battle is often fought over a supply road nobody talks about. It is this invisible war of logistics lines that will, in large part, decide the real outcome on this axis.*

## What this sector reveals about air-defense needs

### Russian strikes accompanying ground pressure

The documented ground pressure on the **Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka** axis is systematically accompanied by Russian air strikes and drone attacks aimed at disrupting Ukrainian supply lines and weakening the morale of troops defending this sector — a combination of ground and air pressure that makes **defending** this axis particularly demanding for Ukrainian forces already facing air-defense shortages documented nationwide.

This combination of ground and air threats concretely illustrates, at the local scale of this precise sector, the nationally documented urgency around the need for **Patriot** interceptors and other air-**defense** systems across the whole of Ukrainian territory.

### A need that extends beyond the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka sector alone

This local observation confirms that the air-**defense** needs documented nationally, notably at the **NATO** summit in **Ankara**, are not a diplomatic abstraction but an operational necessity directly tied to Ukrainian forces' ability to effectively defend critical sectors such as **Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka**.

It is this direct connection between international diplomacy and local tactical reality that this analysis seeks to establish clearly, so that the two dimensions of this war, military and diplomatic, are not treated as entirely separate subjects by **Western** media coverage.

*Every Patriot interceptor missing from Ankara translates, concretely, into an added vulnerability for the soldiers defending Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka. Diplomacy and the battlefield are never as separate as we would like to believe.*

## Comparison with other urban battles of this conflict

### A pattern recalling Bakhmut and Avdiivka

The battle for the **Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka** axis reproduces, in several respects, the pattern documented in the earlier battles for **Bakhmut** and **Avdiivka**: Ukrainian **resistance** prolonged well beyond anticipated timelines, followed by a gradual and costly withdrawal in the face of Russian pressure that, without ever achieving a rapid and spectacular breakthrough, ultimately wears down Ukrainian defenses methodically over time.

This historical comparison, if it holds true on the current axis, would suggest a recurring tactical pattern in this war that deserves to be **documented** with rigor rather than presented as an unavoidable fate, with each battle retaining its own specifics that can significantly alter its outcome relative to the conflict's historical precedents.

### A lesson that should inform Western decisions

This comparison with **Bakhmut** and **Avdiivka** should alert Western decision-makers to the urgency of more quickly supplying the material means needed to avoid repeating a pattern that, if it plays out once again on this axis, would cost **Ukraine** another important **strategic** stretch of territory in the **Donbas**.

It is this dimension of a lesson learned, or not yet sufficiently learned, that this analysis wishes to highlight: every urban battle lost to this same pattern should strengthen, not weaken, Western determination to accelerate its **defense** deliveries and avoid repeating the same scenario on the next threatened axis.

*Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and now perhaps Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka: if the West keeps learning the same lessons too slowly, this pattern will repeat itself again and again, city after city, until material aid finally arrives at the pace this war demands.*

## What this battle reveals about current Russian doctrine

### A method favoring mass over precision

The Russian method **documented** on this axis confirms a doctrine that systematically favors mass of personnel and munitions over tactical precision, an approach costly in human losses for **Moscow** but one that continues to produce incremental territorial gains, consistent with a military logic several Western analysts describe as classic attrition warfare rather than modern maneuver warfare.

This doctrine, **documented** consistently since the start of the offensive on this precise axis, reveals the structural limits of the Russian army despite its numerical superiority: the inability to achieve rapid, decisive breakthroughs even against Ukrainian defenses weakened by documented material shortages.

### A doctrine that could evolve depending on results

It remains possible that this Russian doctrine will evolve in the months ahead depending on the results obtained on this precise axis, an uncertainty this analysis must acknowledge clearly rather than predict, with false certainty, the future evolution of Russian military strategy in this sector of the **front**.

This methodological caution does not, however, prevent documenting, with the sources available to date, the current reality of an attrition doctrine that continues to advance slowly on this **axis** despite its considerable human cost to the Russian army itself.

*An army that favors mass over precision reveals, despite its incremental territorial gains, its own structural limits. The reports on this axis do not document an invincible army — they document an army advancing slowly, at a considerable human cost.*

## What the Western media's silence reveals

### A battle covered less than its importance would justify

It must be noted, with a degree of critical honesty toward our own profession, that the battle for the **Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka** axis receives disproportionately modest Western media coverage relative to its **documented** strategic importance, often relegated to a few lines in daily roundups rather than treated as the major story it genuinely represents for the future of the **Donbas**.

This media under-coverage, if it persists over time, risks contributing to a form of Western information fatigue around this conflict, where only the most spectacular strikes or the most heavily covered diplomatic summits manage to hold the **Western** public's attention for long.

### An editorial responsibility to bear

This analysis takes on its own editorial responsibility by devoting in-depth treatment to this precise axis, precisely because its **documented** strategic importance deserves attention that goes well beyond the average media treatment it usually receives in Western coverage of this war.

It is this responsibility to name what matters even when it is not spectacular that must continue to guide coverage of this conflict, so that **Western** public attention does not gradually drift away from the most decisive axes in favor of only the most visually striking events.

*I refuse to accept that Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka remain lost lines in daily roundups when they hold a disproportionate share of the Donbas's future. Naming what matters, even without a spectacular image, is also a journalistic responsibility.*

## What this battle means for future negotiations

### A balance of power that will shape any future talks

The outcome of the battle for the **Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka** **axis** will directly influence the balance of power underpinning any future negotiations between **Kyiv** and **Moscow**, with each side seeking to consolidate its territorial positions before any serious discussion of a ceasefire or a lasting settlement to this conflict, now in its fifth year.

This diplomatic dimension, often overlooked in purely military analysis of this battle, explains why **Moscow** continues to invest considerable resources on this precise **axis** despite its high human cost: every square kilometer gained before any eventual negotiation strengthens its starting position in any future territorial discussion.

### One more reason to accelerate Western support

This diplomatic dimension is one more reason, beyond the humanitarian urgency documented on the ground alone, to accelerate Western material support to **Ukraine** on this precise axis: every **defensive** position held today strengthens **Kyiv's** future negotiating position, while every further retreat potentially weakens it for years to come.

It is this connection between current tactical reality and future diplomatic leverage that must continue to drive the urgency of Western support **documented** throughout this analysis, regardless of the bureaucratic delays regularly observed in the implementation of Western pledges.

*Every position held at Kostiantynivka today is not just a local tactical win — it is a bargaining chip for the future. That long-term dimension is one the West sometimes seems to forget when assessing how urgent this support really is.*

## What equipment attrition on this precise axis reveals

### Materiel wearing out faster than replacements arrive

Beyond the documented human toll on this axis, the intense and prolonged **fighting** around **Pokrovsk** and **Kostiantynivka** also imposes considerable wear on Ukrainian military equipment, from armored vehicles to artillery systems, in a context where the pace of Western replacement deliveries often remains slower than the actual pace of material losses documented on the ground.

This material attrition, less visible in media coverage than daily **clash** figures alone, nonetheless constitutes a decisive factor in Ukrainian forces' real capacity to hold their defensive positions on this axis in the months ahead, independent of the documented courage of the soldiers deployed on the ground alone.

### A material dependence tied to diplomatic urgency

This material dependence connects directly to the urgency documented at the **NATO** summit in **Ankara**: without a constant and sufficient flow of replacement equipment, even the most determined **resistance** documented on this precise axis risks gradually wearing itself out against a Russian army that, despite its own considerable losses, continues to benefit from a larger wartime industrial base.

It is this material dimension, often eclipsed by narratives of human courage alone, that must remain at the center of any serious assessment of the Ukrainian army's real needs on this **strategic** axis of the **Donbas**.

*The documented courage of Ukrainian soldiers at Pokrovsk is not enough when armor and artillery wear out faster than replacements arrive. This brutal material equation remains, even today, insufficiently resolved by Western allies.*

## Conclusion: an axis that deserves the attention it is still being denied

### What this analysis establishes with certainty

This **analysis** establishes, from multiple converging sources, that the **Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka** axis constitutes one of the most contested and strategically significant sectors of the entire Ukrainian **front** during the summer of 2026, with two hundred sixty-eight clashes reported in a single day on July 9 and methodical Russian pressure documented without let-up by successive assessments from the **Institute for the Study of War**.

This battle illustrates, on a local scale, the full set of dynamics structuring this conflict in its fifth year: heroic Ukrainian **resistance** limited by documented material shortages, a costly but progressively effective Russian attrition doctrine, and a diplomatic dimension that extends well beyond the local military theater to influence the entire future balance of power between **Kyiv** and **Moscow**.

### What the West still needs to understand

This analysis concludes with a call for vigilance: the **Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka** **axis** deserves far greater Western attention than it currently receives, not because it is more spectacular than other aspects of this war, but precisely because its outcome will weigh lastingly on the future of the entire **Donbas** and, by extension, on the credibility of all Western support for **Ukraine** in this prolonged war against Russian aggression.

It is this sustained attention, beyond diplomatic summits and spectacular announcements alone, that this **analysis** calls to maintain in the months ahead, so that the defenders of **Pokrovsk** and **Kostiantynivka** never fight in the relative indifference of a West distracted by other priorities.

**By Maxime Marquette, columnist**

## Columnist's transparency note

### Editorial stance

I am not a journalist but a **columnist and analyst**. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies.

I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. **I claim analytical clarity**, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events.

### Method and sources

This text keeps the basic distinction between **verified facts and interpretive analysis**. The rule never changes: a factual claim is published only when a verifiable source supports it, and the sources this article actually used are listed under **Sources**, never here.

**Primary source families** used by the publication, when the story has them: official statements from governments and international institutions, public statements by political leaders, reports from intergovernmental organisations, dispatches from recognised international news agencies.

**Secondary source families**: specialised publications, internationally recognised news media, analyses from established research institutions, reports from industry organisations.

When an article cites statistical, economic or geopolitical data, it comes from the institutions that produce it (intergovernmental organisations, central banks, national statistics offices), and the exact institution is named under **Sources**.

### Nature of the analysis

The analyses, interpretations and perspectives in the analytical sections of this article are a **critical, contextual synthesis** based on the information available, the trends observed and the expert comments cited in the sources consulted.

My role is to interpret these facts, to set them in the context of today's geopolitical and economic dynamics, and to give them a coherent meaning within the larger story of the changes shaping our time. These analyses reflect expertise built through continuous observation of international affairs and an understanding of the strategic mechanisms that drive global actors.

This article describes a documented state of affairs on its publication date, not a prediction: later developments may shift its outlook. No update is promised in advance; when an article is corrected or completed, the change is dated in the text.

## Sources

### Primary sources

- [268 clashes across the front, concentration on Pokrovsk — Ukrainska Pravda, July 9, 2026](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/07/09/8043170/)

- [Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 8 — Institute for the Study of War, July 8, 2026](https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-8-2026/)

- [73 clashes, concentration on Pokrovsk-Sloviansk — Censor.net, 2026](https://censor.net/en/news/4011238/since-the-start-of-the-day-russian-federation-has-attacked-the-defence-forces-positions-73-times)

- [132 clashes, fiercest fighting in Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka — Ukrinform, April 17, 2026](https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4113527-war-update-132-clashes-on-frontline-over-past-day-fiercest-fighting-in-pokrovsk-kostiantynivka-sectors.html)

### Secondary sources

- [Analysis of the Donetsk front — The New York Times, July 5, 2026](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/05/world/europe/ukraine-russia-donetsk-front.html)

- [Russian advance between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka — Kyiv Independent](https://kyivindependent.com/russian-forces-advance-between-pokrovsk-kostiantynivka-in-donetsk-oblast-ukrainian-military-says/)

- [Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 1 — Institute for the Study of War, July 1, 2026](https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-1-2026/)

---

Source: Maxime Marquette, MadMax. When citing, name the author and link https://mad-max.co/en/article/analysis-pokrovsk-kostiantynivka-the-axis-deciding-the-fate-of-donbas