# ANALYSIS: Six Billion Euros Just Sitting There Is Blood on Europe’s Hands

> It was a Thursday evening in Brussels, and Volodymyr Zelensky hadn’t planned on making polite parlor diplomacy. The Ukrainian president, addressing the

- Author: Maxime Marquette
- Publisher: MadMax (https://mad-max.co)
- Section: Analysis
- Published: 2026-06-22
- Canonical URL: https://mad-max.co/en/article/analyse-six-milliards-d-euros-qui-dorment-c-est-du-sang-sur-les-mains-de-l-europ-2

## Key takeaways

- Hungary, under new Prime Minister Péter Magyar, withdrew its veto on June 1, 2026, freeing funds that Viktor Orbán had blocked since March 2023.
- Zelensky urged the European Council on June 19 to use the funds quickly for air defense, long-range munitions and energy infrastructure, and asked for a winter package including at least 300 missiles.
- Member states remain divided: Germany wants the money sent to Ukraine, while Poland demands reimbursement of about €450 million, and Kallas's compromise was rejected by Warsaw.
- The author stresses the PURL program's slowdown since March 2026 and France's conditions on European equipment as obstacles to fast air defense purchases.
- The European Council conclusions condemned Russian strikes on energy infrastructure but did not explicitly mention the EPF funds.

## Introduction: The Race Against Winter Has Begun, and Europe Is Still in Its Pajamas

### On June 19, 2026, Zelensky drops a diplomatic bombshell at the European Council

It was a Thursday evening in Brussels, and Volodymyr Zelensky hadn’t planned on making polite parlor diplomacy. The Ukrainian president, addressing the leaders of the Twenty-Seven gathered in an extraordinary summit, dropped a sentence that should have rattled the chandeliers of the Justus Lipsius: **“It is a significant amount; it must serve what truly protects lives.”** Six billion euros from the **European Peace Facility** have just been unblocked after two years of a Hungarian veto. And now, every day of inaction is a mistake that history will tally.

The timeline is crystal clear. **On June 1, 2026**, Budapest abandoned its veto under the government of Péter Magyar, Orbán’s successor. The funds, frozen since 2024, suddenly found themselves available in a Brussels account. But **available** does not mean **used**. On June 18, Zelensky took the podium at the European Council and sounded the alarm: these six billion must be mobilized **immediately**, not after months of bureaucratic debate over the split between national reimbursements and direct aid to Kyiv.

### Putin doesn't take summer vacations

While European diplomats squabbled over distribution methods — with Germany wanting to send everything to Ukraine and Poland demanding **€450 million** in reimbursement for weapons already delivered — Vladimir Putin continued to target Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Russian missiles respect neither summit agendas nor budget calendars. According to the European Council conclusions of June 19, 2026, Russia **“has intensified its missile and drone attacks against Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure”** even as European negotiators debated funding mechanisms.

This brutal contrast is at the heart of Zelensky’s appeal. His message isn’t simply financial — it is **existential**. Ukrainians survived the winter of 2025-2026 in conditions that exhausted reserves of energy equipment. According to Reuters, stocks of energy equipment were near depletion in January 2026, with an urgent need for approximately **one billion dollars** to avoid the collapse of the power grid. Another winter under Russian bombs without adequate preparation would be catastrophic.

*I’m no military strategist, and I’ve never claimed to be. But there is something deeply revolting about this image: six billion euros sitting quietly in a Brussels account while Ukrainian children sleep in the cold. This isn't abstract geopolitics. It’s a moral decision Europe must make now, not in six months.*

## The Genesis of the Blockade: Two Years of Orbanist Obstruction

### How a single man paralyzed military Europe

To understand the urgency of June 2026, we have to go back to March 2023. That was when Viktor Orbán, then Hungarian Prime Minister and an avowed ally of Putin, began systematically blocking decisions by the **European Peace Facility** (EPF). The mechanism is simple and brutal: the EPF requires the unanimity of the Twenty-Seven. A single country can thus freeze everything. Orbán did it for over two years, holding back some **6.6 billion euros** intended to reimburse member states for weapons already delivered to Ukraine and to fund new purchases.

The EPF mechanism is crucial to understand. It is an instrument **outside the community budget**, funded directly by member state contributions based on their gross national income. It reimburses approximately **40% of the value** of the weapons each country pulled from its own stocks to send to Kyiv. Orbán had turned this solidarity mechanism into a diplomatic hostage, to the benefit of a foreign policy that served — whether by calculation or affinity — Moscow’s interests.

### The Magyar Turn: Budapest changes camps

On May 9, 2026, Péter Magyar was inaugurated as Prime Minister of Hungary after a historic electoral victory over Orbán. On **June 1, 2026**, his ambassador to the EU Political and Security Committee announced the withdrawal of the veto. According to Euromaidan Press, citing an official present in the room, the reversal was immediate and unconditional. **“This unblocking will be a positive signal for the member states that have provided the most support to Ukraine,”** a European diplomat told Politico. Magyar’s gesture doesn't just concern the **6.6 billion** immediately available; it paves the way for a total backlog of potential reimbursements estimated at over **40 billion euros**.

But formal unblocking does not mean immediate deployment. Kaja Kallas, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, proposed a compromise formula: a partial restitution of **10%** to member states as reimbursement, a portion for the EUMAM Ukraine training mission, and the rest for joint procurement for Kyiv. Poland rejected this proposal. **“This money is our money,”** snapped Polish Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk. Germany, conversely, argues that everything must go to Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian power grid burns.

*I understand the Polish arguments — Warsaw has made immense sacrifices to arm Ukraine. But there comes a time when the accountant must give way to the strategist. Demanding your reimbursement while Ukraine prepares for another winter of shelling is being right in the ledger books and wrong in history.*

## The June 19 Speech: Zelensky Doesn't Mince Words

### A quote that should be in the history books

Zelensky’s words to the European Council on June 19, 2026, deserve to be quoted in full, because they perfectly summarize the logic of urgency. **“It is very important that the funds from the European Peace Facility have now been unblocked. This is very important. That is 6 billion euros. It is a significant amount, and it must be used for what truly helps protect lives.”** And then this final sentence, which sounds like a moral ultimatum: **“Please support the rapid use of these funds so that no lives are lost because of delays.”**

The precision of this speech is remarkable. Zelensky isn’t asking for a blank check — he identifies three priority areas for use: **strengthening air defense**, the **purchase of long-range munitions**, and the **protection of Ukrainian energy infrastructure**. This triptych isn’t rhetorical. It corresponds exactly to the three gaping vulnerabilities that the Russian army has been exploiting for months to exhaust Ukrainian resistance without necessarily conquering territory.

### The formula “Putin is war”: A final verdict

In the same speech, Zelensky uttered a laconic formula that speaks volumes about his vision of the diplomatic situation: **“Putin is war.”** This phrase, reported by both UNN and the official website of the Ukrainian presidency, isn’t a hollow metaphor. It means that all peace offensives, all attempts at negotiation, inevitably run aground on the Kremlin’s will for destruction. Zelensky declares he wants to end the war before winter through diplomacy — but he is simultaneously preparing Europe for the opposite scenario.

The tone of the speech is that of a man who has stopped believing in promises without deadlines. **“We don’t have time to reflect. We have only one choice: to decide what to do,”** he declared according to Ukrainska Pravda. This phrasing contrasts with the hushed language of European diplomacy. It is the voice of a head of state who has seen his cities bombed for the fourth consecutive year and who refuses to submit to the rhythm of institutional agendas in Brussels.

*When Zelensky says "Putin is war," he isn't making propaganda — he's making an analysis. Twenty-eight months after the start of the major offensive, evidence is mounting that Moscow has no intention of negotiating in good faith. Every ceasefire proposed by Kyiv has been met with a salvo of missiles. Europe must integrate this reality into its budget calculations.*

## Air Defense: The Black Hole That Six Billion Could Fill

### Patriot systems as a shield against Russian ballistic missiles

The most urgent — and most costly — Ukrainian request concerns **air defense**. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha was the first to clearly formulate the request on June 2, 2026, the day after a Russian strike on central Kyiv: **“Use the unblocked European Peace Facility to fund the PURL program and purchase additional Patriot systems and missiles for Ukraine.”** The PURL program (Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List) is a NATO mechanism that groups Ukrainian needs for American armaments into **500 million dollar** packages, funded by voluntary contributions from allies.

According to the Kyiv Independent, citing analyst Martin Leng from the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics, the EPF is **“by design one of the EU's most flexible funding instruments.”** Now that the Hungarian veto has been lifted, nothing technically prevents directing these funds toward purchases of air defense systems. The question is political: some states, notably France, are conditioning these purchases on the use of **European** equipment, refusing to see EU money fund the American military industry. An industrial ego squabble while Russian Shaheds take off from Crimea.

### The PURL program in trouble: The consequences of American disengagement

The picture is worsened by the slowdown of the PURL program since March 2026, when the United States engaged in strikes against Iran. According to the Kyiv Independent, deliveries via PURL have **slowed down** and new contributions have become **“smaller and less frequent.”** This context makes the use of the EPF even more crucial: it is no longer simply about supplementing American aid, but potentially substituting for it in certain critical niches. Europe, whether it wants to or not, finds itself propelled to the front line of the Ukrainian military supply chain.

The figures confirm the scale of the challenge. According to the EEAS, since the start of the war, the EU and its member states have mobilized more than **$226 billion** in financial, military, humanitarian, and refugee support. Out of this total, **$86 billion** corresponds to direct military aid. But Russian bombs are adapting: strikes against the Ukrainian power grid are increasingly precise, increasingly massive. The six billion from the EPF represents a drop in the ocean of needs — but a potentially decisive drop if it arrives at the right place at the right time.

*It is ironic that the debate over these six billion pits Europe against itself at the exact moment its strategic role is expanding. The United States is looking elsewhere. China is quietly supporting Moscow. It’s up to Europe to hold the line. And yet it’s still debating reimbursement percentages. I don’t know if it’s myopia or cowardice — probably both.*

## Long-Range Munitions: Kyiv’s Second Priority

### Hitting Russian launch bases before they hit Ukrainian transformers

The second priority identified by Zelensky in his June 19 speech is the purchase of **long-range munitions**. This request fits into a clear military logic: to reduce Russian strikes on energy infrastructure, one must be able to hit the launch bases — Shahed drones, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles — deep within Russian territory. The European Council conclusions of June 19, 2026, explicitly confirm this priority: European leaders **“stress the importance of urgently accelerating the production and delivery of priority equipment, notably air defense systems, ammunition, drones and missiles.”**

In this context, the sequence of the week of June 15 is instructive. According to EA WorldView, following meetings of NATO defense ministers and the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, allies announced **$4 billion** in new aid, including air defense missiles, drones, and artillery ammunition. Norway, Denmark, Spain, Lithuania, and Luxembourg jointly pledged **$540 million** in long-range artillery ammunition. These commitments alongside the unblocking of the EPF illustrate the dynamic: the money exists, the goodwill exists, but the European bureaucracy remains the bottleneck.

### The strategic debate: European or American weapons?

The most sensitive friction point in the use of the EPF concerns precisely the origin of the equipment. According to analyst Juraj Majcin from the European Policy Center, interviewed by the Kyiv Independent, **“aid to Ukraine must not be subordinated to the goals of the EU's defense industrial policy.”** The absolute priorities must be **“speed and Ukraine's operational needs.”** This warning aims directly at the temptations of certain member states to use EPF funds to subsidize their own military industry rather than buying what Ukraine needs now.

France, in particular, has expressed reservations about using European funds to buy American equipment via the PURL program. This is an understandable position from the perspective of European strategic autonomy — but it risks sacrificing immediate effectiveness on the altar of long-term industrial policy. **Ukraine needs Patriot missiles now**, not in eighteen months when the European industry might have developed an equivalent. Every additional week of deliberation is a week that Putin uses to prepare the next wave of winter strikes.

*I perceive a certain hypocrisy in the European discourse on strategic autonomy. European industry is invoked as a screen to slow down aid that Ukraine needs urgently. Strategic autonomy is a ten-year vision. The Ukrainian winter is six months away. The hierarchy of priorities seems obvious to me.*

## Energy Infrastructure: Putin’s Favorite Target Before Winter

### Destroying the power grid to break civilian resistance

Zelensky’s third priority — the protection of energy infrastructure — is perhaps the most directly linked to Ukrainian civilian survival. The European Council of June 19, 2026, **“strongly condemns Russia for systematically and deliberately targeting Ukraine's civilian and energy infrastructure.”** This formulation is not trivial: it recognizes that the destruction of the power grid is a deliberate strategy by Moscow, not collateral damage. The objective is to break the civilian population's will to resist by plunging them into cold and darkness during the harshest months.

Reuters reported in January 2026 that Ukrainian stocks of energy equipment were **depleted** after the previous winter, requiring urgent financial aid of about **one billion dollars** to prevent the collapse of the grid. Zelensky, in his June 19 speech, was explicit about this risk: **“I don’t know what they are going to destroy this winter or before winter.”** This uncertainty itself is an argument for maximum preparation. EPF funds could finance replacement transformers, emergency generators, rapid repair equipment — everything that allows the Ukrainian grid to withstand the next cycles of Russian strikes.

### The winter package: 300 missiles and diesel fuel

Beyond the EPF, Zelensky formulated a parallel request: a **winter aid package** including an energy component — gas, diesel, oil, necessary equipment — and a military component of at least **300 missiles**. **“Help us prepare for winter. We are asking you now. We don’t have time to reflect,”** he urged European leaders. This formulation is strategically clever: it asks for **preventative** preparation, before the crisis hits, rather than a reactive response to destruction already caused.

The European Council partially responded to this request in its conclusions, calling for **“intensified EU efforts to support Ukraine in repairing, reconstructing, and strengthening the resilience of its critical infrastructure and energy system before the next winter.”** It also encourages **“enhanced regional energy cooperation and cross-border electricity interconnections.”** Concrete commitments, but they remain in the realm of intention — far from the cash-on-hand urgency Zelensky is demanding.

*There is something deeply unfair about the Ukrainian situation: they are asking us for help to prepare for a winter that we, as Europeans, will live through in our heated apartments. While Zelensky talks about 300 missiles and diesel stocks, our heads of state get into their limousines. I’m not saying they are bad people — I’m saying the distance between the realities is dizzying, and that should compel us to act faster.*

## The Distribution Squabble: Who Gets the Six Billion?

### Berlin vs. Warsaw: The clash of national interests

The real obstacle to the rapid use of the funds is no longer political — it’s arithmetic. According to Ukrainska Pravda of June 10, 2026, **Germany** wants to direct the entirety of the **6.6 billion** to Ukraine in the name of European solidarity. Sebastian Hartmann, German Deputy Defense Minister, explicitly stated: **“The European Peace Facility was created as a solidarity mechanism.”****Poland**, on the other hand, is demanding full reimbursement of approximately **2 billion zlotys** (€450 million) for the weapons it has already transferred to Ukraine. **“This money is our money,”** Tomczyk hammered home.

Kallas's proposal — a partial distribution of **10%** to member states with the rest for joint procurement — was rejected by Warsaw. Between these positions, the funds remain in a Brussels account. The paradox is cruel: the Hungarian veto was lifted to unblock money intended for Ukraine, but intra-European squabbles risk achieving the same result as Orbán: immobility. Meanwhile, according to RBC-Ukraine, the total reimbursement requests submitted by member states for weapons already delivered reached **43 billion euros** — a sum out of all proportion to the 6.6 billion available.

### The German plea and the lesson in consistency

The German position deserves to be highlighted because it represents a rare strategic consistency. Germany is the country that has contributed the most in proportion to the EPF. It is deliberately waiving its reimbursement and asking that the funds go directly to Ukraine. This posture is both morally consistent and strategically smart: a resisting Ukraine is more useful to European security than **a few hundred million reimbursed to Berlin**. This is the kind of long-term geopolitical calculation one would like to see adopted by all European capitals.

But Berlin's lesson runs into domestic realities. Poland has just spent massively to arm Ukraine — its taxpayers expect a return. France conditions its support on European purchases. Slovakia, ever suspicious, watches every cent. These tensions are not irrational — they reflect real budgetary constraints. But they change nothing about the Ukrainian urgency. Zelensky isn’t asking Europeans to get rich off this money. He is asking for it to serve what it was intended for: **protecting lives**.

*I am struck by the geopolitical irony: Germany, long criticized for its pusillanimity toward Russia, is today the clearest voice for the money to go to Ukraine without conditions. Berlin has changed. Not yet fast enough, but the direction is right. The question is whether other capitals will follow before winter hits.*

## The European Council Prism: Between Declarations and Ground Reality

### Official conclusions: The right words, insufficient acts

The European Council conclusions of June 19, 2026, published by the EEAS, are a solid document on paper. The Twenty-Seven **“reaffirm their firm and unwavering support for Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.”** They **“underline the importance of continuing sustained efforts to provide military support to Ukraine, including via the Ukraine Support Loan.”** They call for the **“urgent production and delivery of priority equipment.”** And they condemn Russia for its strikes on civilian and energy infrastructure.

But the conclusions do not explicitly mention the EPF or the six billion. This silence is telling. At this stage on June 19, the debate over the distribution of funds has not yet been settled. The European Council carefully avoided turning the official communiqué into an arbitration of an intra-European squabble. It prefers general formulations on military support rather than a precise commitment on the fate of the unblocked funds. It is politically understandable — and strategically problematic for Ukraine.

### The 90 billion loan: A windfall whose first tranche is finally arriving

In this context, we must also mention the other major financial news of the week: the European Council **“looks forward to the first disbursement to Ukraine of the 90 billion euro loan for 2026 and 2027 by the end of June 2026.”** This loan, approved by the European Parliament in February 2026 and formally adopted in April, represents the most massive financial instrument ever deployed by the EU for a third country. Of these 90 billion, **60 billion** are intended for defense capability building, and **30 billion** for budgetary and macroeconomic support. The first tranche of **5.9 billion** was expected for defense — notably the purchase of Ukrainian drones.

These two financial flows — the 90 billion loan and the 6.6 billion from the EPF — are **complementary but distinct**. The loan is a massive long-term financing tool, subject to reform conditions. The EPF is a reimbursement and joint procurement mechanism, more flexible but more political. Zelensky needs both. And the June 19 appeal aims precisely to prevent the unblocking of the EPF from being swallowed by bureaucratic delays, while the largest loan in European history also takes its months to get moving.

*When you add it all up — 90 billion loan, 6.6 billion EPF, 2.8 billion under the Ukraine Facility — the numbers make your head spin. Europe isn’t stingy. It’s slow. And slowness, in the face of a war that kills every day, is a form of passive complicity that I refuse to accept as inevitable.*

## The Russian Threat to Infrastructure: A Documented Strategy

### Hitting transformers to freeze resistance

To understand why Zelensky insists so much on energy protection, one must look at what Russia has done systematically since the fall of 2022. Moscow’s strategy is documented and deliberate: target electrical transformers, pumping stations, district heating facilities, gas distribution centers. The objective isn’t military — it’s psychological. Deprive Ukrainian civilians of electricity, heat, and drinking water during the coldest months to push them toward capitulation. This strategy has partially failed so far — Ukrainian resilience is remarkable — but each additional winter of strikes worsens the cumulative damage.

The European Council conclusions of June 19 notably cite **“recent strikes against the UNESCO World Heritage site of the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra”** as an example of Russian escalation. They also mention a Russian drone loaded with explosives that hit a residential building in Romania — an incident that reminds us the war is already spilling over Ukrainian borders onto EU soil. **The threat is existential for Europe too**, not just for Ukraine. The six billion from the EPF doesn’t just protect Ukrainians — it also protects the eastern flank of the Atlantic alliance.

### The complicity of Pyongyang and Tehran

The European Council of June 19 **“strongly condemns the deployment of DPRK military forces in the war against Ukraine as well as the continued military support provided to Russia by Iran, Belarus and the DPRK.”** This sentence, often read quickly, deserves a pause. North Korea provides artillery shells and soldiers. Iran provides Shahed drones. China maintains a benevolent neutrality toward Moscow while providing it with electronic components. What Ukraine is facing is no longer just a Russian army — it’s an informal coalition of the enemies of the liberal West.

In this context, the six billion from the EPF takes on a symbolic dimension as important as its financial value. It is Europe telling this anti-Western coalition that its strategy of attrition will not work. Every euro unblocked quickly is a political message: the West is holding, Ukraine is holding, and Putin’s calculation is fundamentally flawed. Every euro sitting in a Brussels account sends the opposite message — and Moscow reads these signals with the utmost attention.

*We often speak of the war in Ukraine as a territorial conflict. That is reductive. What is at stake is the credibility of the democratic and liberal model against a coalition of authoritarian regimes that have decided the West is in decline. Six billion euros deployed quickly is an argument against that thesis. Six billion euros immobile is an argument for it.*

## Kaja Kallas’s Role: Between Will and Institutional Impotence

### The High Representative pressed from all sides

Kaja Kallas, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, find herself in an uncomfortable position. She announced the compromise proposal on the EPF. She publicly welcomed the unblocking by Hungary. She has maintained regular contact with member states to encourage arms deliveries, including via the PURL program. But her actual powers are limited: she cannot force an agreement on the distribution of funds, she can only mediate and persuade. When Poland says **“no,”** Kallas must return to the negotiating table.

The Ukrainian presidency website notes that European partners **understand** the needs of Ukraine regarding air defense and that joint work is underway to ensure Europe its own anti-ballistic capabilities. This is real progress. But between **understanding** and **funding**, there is still the abyss of institutional procedures. Kallas can express the urgency as loudly as she wants — the final decision on the distribution of EPF funds belongs to the member states.

### The week of June 15: Positive but insufficient signals

The week of June 15, 2026, did produce concrete results nonetheless. According to EA WorldView, besides the 4 billion in new military aid, the United Kingdom announced the supply of **enriched uranium** to power Ukrainian nuclear plants for two years — a delivery valued at **210 million pounds sterling**. The Netherlands pledged an **additional 500 million euros**, with 250 million dedicated to drone capabilities. These announcements alongside the European Council summit show that support for Ukraine remains strong — but they do not replace the clear and rapid use of the EPF's six billion, which remains the main issue.

The geopolitical context has also evolved favorably with the formal resumption of Ukrainian accession negotiations to the EU on June 15, 2026 — a historic development welcomed by the European Council. Zelensky stated it was **“a very big moment for Ukraine.”** But accession, even accelerated, is a prospect several years away. What Ukraine needs now is military and energy concrete, not institutional promises. **The future in the EU is a perspective; Russian missiles this winter are a certainty.**

*Kallas does what she can with the tools she has. But the truth is that European construction has created institutions that excel at making consensual decisions in peacetime and find themselves paralyzed in the face of military urgency. This is a structural flaw of the EU that this war is exposing starkly.*

## Lessons from the Winter of 2025-2026: Don’t Make the Same Mistake Twice

### A winter of destruction from which conclusions have not yet been drawn

Ukraine went through the winter of 2025-2026 in conditions that Europeans have trouble imagining. Entire cities without electricity for days. Hospitals running on generators. Millions of homes in the cold from December to February. According to Reuters, stocks of energy equipment were **depleted** in January 2026, and urgent aid of one billion dollars was needed to keep the grid in minimal working order. Ukraine survived — but at what human and industrial cost.

Russian strikes on the Ukrainian power grid are not random. They deliberately target **high-voltage transformers** — equipment that is long to produce, difficult to replace, and which constitutes the vital nodes of the grid. Every destroyed transformer takes months to replace and costs millions. Ukraine desperately needs replacement stocks, rapid repair capabilities, and air defense systems capable of intercepting missiles before they reach their target. The six billion from the EPF, if deployed quickly, could fund all of that.

### The preparation window: From June to September, not a day longer

Zelensky formulated his request in June for a precise reason: **the window of preparation for winter closes in September**. Repair work on the power grid, purchases of generators, fuel storage, delivery of missiles for air defense — all of this takes time. According to the Ukrainian president's statements, if preparation does not start now, in parallel with diplomatic efforts, Ukraine risks finding itself once again helpless against the first Russian winter strikes. **“We are asking you now. We don’t have time to reflect,”** he said — and this urgency is not rhetorical.

The call to prepare the winter package **now**, in June, is not an exaggeration. Air defense systems ordered today will arrive in three to six months. Transformers ordered in July will be installed in October, just before the frost begins. Gas and diesel stocks constitute buffer capacities that don’t fill up in a week. Every week of delay in the European decision on the EPF is a week of lost preparation. **The Russian winter will not wait for Brussels' consensus.**

*I think of this phrase I heard from a European diplomat — anonymous, of course: "We are ready to do everything for Ukraine, but not right now." It is the quintessence of the problem. Ukrainian urgency and European institutional time are fundamentally incompatible. And it is Ukraine that pays the price for this gap.*

## Trump’s Stance and the Atlantic Equation

### A necessary but cumbersome ally

The United States remains an unavoidable variable in the Ukrainian equation. Donald Trump, whose administration oscillates between conditional support for Ukraine and attempts at rapprochement with Moscow, represents what one could call a **necessary evil for the West**. On one hand, his rhetorical firmness toward Russia — and his use of sanctions as leverage — remains useful. On the other, his **“procurement-for-engagement,”** described by analyst Martin Leng as **“tacit blackmail,”** creates friction with European allies. The Americans want to sell their weapons; the Europeans want to assert their autonomy; Ukraine wants missiles.

The slowdown of the PURL program since March 2026, linked to the American engagement against Iran, illustrates Ukraine’s structural dependence on American supply chains. The Patriot system remains the best anti-missile shield available — and it is American. Europeans can criticize Trump’s policy, but they cannot yet replace him in this specific segment. This is precisely why some, like Sybiha, want to use EPF funds to finance purchases via PURL: **using European money to buy American protection**, even if it irritates certain capitals of the Old Continent.

### China in ambush: The true strategic adversary

Behind Russia, there is China. Beijing has not sent soldiers to Ukraine — but it has maintained a constant flow of electronic components, semiconductors, and spare parts that fuel the Russian war machine. The European Council of June 19 urges **“all countries to immediately cease all assistance to Russia in its war of aggression”** — a formulation that targets Beijing directly without naming it. China is the greatest long-term threat to the liberal international order. Its passive complicity with Moscow is not a foreign policy accident: it is a strategy to reshape the world order.

In this context, the EPF's six billion acquires a significance that far exceeds the Ukrainian conflict. It is Europe deciding whether it is capable of actively defending its values and interests against an informal coalition of revisionist powers. Effective and rapid support for Ukraine, including the immediate use of EPF funds, is the best message Europe can send to Beijing: **the West is not in decline, and it will not abandon its allies.**

*I don’t believe Xi Jinping is closely following the debates on the distribution of the European six billion. But he is certainly following the results. If Ukraine collapses because of a lack of winter support, it will be recorded in Beijing as a strategic victory. That is the real stake of the sums involved. Not abstract numbers — a geopolitical lesson that the whole world will read.*

## What History Will Remember: Every Hour Counts

### Ukraine has already proven its resilience — Europe must prove its own

Here is what we know with certainty as of June 19, 2026: Ukraine has held out for over four years against an army that was supposed to subdue it in four days. Kyiv has not fallen. The power grid has survived two winters of intensive bombing. The Ukrainian defense industry produces competitive drones. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have partially regained territory. **Zelensky n'est pas venu demander la charité au Conseil européen — il est venu réclamer des outils dont il a prouvé qu'il savait les utiliser.**

Von der Leyen said, during the summit, that **“the tide is turning”** in favor of Ukraine. Perhaps. But tides do not turn without conditions. The condition for this turnaround is that Western allies maintain — and accelerate — their support at a decisive moment. The six billion from the EPF is precisely this type of support: funding already voted on, already available, waiting only for a political decision to be deployed. Blocking it through squabbles over national reimbursements is wasting a window of opportunity that history will not forgive.

### The memory of inaction: What every delay costs

The history of wars is also the history of delays. Ammunition that didn’t arrive on time. Anti-aircraft shields ordered too late. Backup generators bought in December rather than September. Every delay has a human cost that financial statements never record. When Zelensky says **“no lives are lost because of delays”**, he isn't using rhetoric — he is documenting a reality that Ukraine has lived for four years.

Europe has the opportunity, in June 2026, to demonstrate that it has learned this lesson. Six billion euros unblocked and deployed before summer — in air defense, long-range munitions, energy infrastructure — could make the difference between a bearable Ukrainian winter and a catastrophic one. It isn’t certain. War always involves uncertainties. But the probability that these funds save lives, transformers, and resistance capacities is high enough that inaction becomes inexcusable. **Every euro that sleeps is a decision Europe makes.**

*I end this article with a question that haunts me: in twenty years, when historians write about the winter of 2026-2027 in Ukraine, what will they say about us? That we acted quickly, with the awareness of urgency? Or that we dithered, counted our pennies, and let Ukrainians die of cold under Russian missiles while six billion euros sat quietly in Brussels? The answer depends on decisions being made now. Not tomorrow.*

## Conclusion: The Race Against Winter — Europe Can Still Win

### The hour is no longer for declarations but for speed of execution

Zelensky’s speech to the European Council on June 19, 2026, will remain in the diplomatic archives as a call to action of rare clarity and urgency. **Six billion euros** have just been unblocked after two years of Orbanist obstruction. Three priority uses have been identified: air defense, long-range munitions, energy protection. A complementary winter package — 300 missiles, gas, diesel — has been requested in preparation. The European Council responded with firm conclusions on the level of principles. Now remains the essential part: **transforming these words into acts, and these euros into equipment, before the Russian winter reclaims its rights.**

The lesson of four years of war is simple but brutal: Ukraine does not lack courage, it does not lack strategy, it does not lack will. What it sometimes lacks is the speed of delivery of Western promises. The **20th and 21st sanctions packages** are being adopted. The **90 billion** loan is starting to be disbursed. EU accession negotiations are open. The momentum is positive. But Putin’s schedule — hitting infrastructure before winter to break resistance — is also in motion.

### History's verdict will be rendered as early as spring 2027

In six months, in the spring of 2027, we will know if Europe kept its implicit promise. If the six billion were deployed quickly, if air defense systems reduced winter destruction, if replacement transformers were delivered on time, if the 300 missiles requested by Zelensky kept Ukrainian cities less bruised — then Europe can say it lived up to its discourse. If, on the contrary, the funds remained stuck in reimbursement squabbles until December, if Ukraine crossed a third catastrophic winter for lack of preparation, history will be merciless. And it will be right to be.

The West remains the center of the liberal international order — but this order is not maintained by incantation. It is defended by acts, by euros, by missiles, and by the political will to keep its commitments before it is too late. Zelensky said what needed to be said. European leaders said what needed to be said. Now: **do what needs to be done.**

**By Maxime Marquette, columnist**

## Columnist's transparency note

### Editorial stance

I am not a journalist but a **columnist and analyst**. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies.

I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. **I claim analytical clarity**, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events.

### Method and sources

This text keeps the basic distinction between **verified facts and interpretive analysis**. The rule never changes: a factual claim is published only when a verifiable source supports it, and the sources this article actually used are listed under **Sources**, never here.

**Primary source families** used by the publication, when the story has them: official statements from governments and international institutions, public statements by political leaders, reports from intergovernmental organisations, dispatches from recognised international news agencies.

**Secondary source families**: specialised publications, internationally recognised news media, analyses from established research institutions, reports from industry organisations.

When an article cites statistical, economic or geopolitical data, it comes from the institutions that produce it (intergovernmental organisations, central banks, national statistics offices), and the exact institution is named under **Sources**.

### Nature of the analysis

The analyses, interpretations and perspectives in the analytical sections of this article are a **critical, contextual synthesis** based on the information available, the trends observed and the expert comments cited in the sources consulted.

My role is to interpret these facts, to set them in the context of today's geopolitical and economic dynamics, and to give them a coherent meaning within the larger story of the changes shaping our time. These analyses reflect expertise built through continuous observation of international affairs and an understanding of the strategic mechanisms that drive global actors.

This article describes a documented state of affairs on its publication date, not a prediction: later developments may shift its outlook. No update is promised in advance; when an article is corrected or completed, the change is dated in the text.

## Sources

### Primary Sources

- [UNN — Zelenskyy called on the EU to quickly use the unblocked €6 billion and prepare a winter aid package — June 19, 2026](https://unn.ua/en/news/zelenskyy-called-on-the-eu-to-quickly-use-the-unblocked-euro6-billion-and-prepare-a-winter-aid-package)

- [Ukrainska Pravda — Zelenskyy calls for release of €6bn from European Peace Facility — June 19, 2026](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/06/19/8040069/)

- [EEAS — European Council conclusions on Ukraine — June 19, 2026](https://www.eeas.europa.eu/delegations/ukraine/european-council-conclusions-ukraine_en)

### Secondary Sources

- [Euromaidan Press — Hungary unblocks $7.7 billion in EU arms payments after dropping two-year veto — June 3, 2026](https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/06/03/hungary-unblocks-e6-6-billion-in-eu-arms-payments-after-dropping-two-year-veto-on-ukraine-aid/)

- [Kyiv Independent — Ukraine hopes newly unblocked EU fund could plug air defense gap — June 3, 2026](https://kyivindependent.com/the-newly-unblocked-eu-fund-that-ukraine-hopes-could-plug-air-defense-gaps/)

- [Ukrainska Pravda — Berlin reportedly wants €6.6bn unlocked by Budapest to go directly to Ukraine — June 10, 2026](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/06/10/8038714/)

- [Official website of the Ukrainian Presidency — Partners Recognize Ukraine's Strength, Understand the Need for Air Defense and Army Funding — June 18, 2026](https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/partneri-viznayut-silu-ukrayini-rozumiyut-potrebu-v-ppo-ta-f-105041)

- [EA WorldView — Ukraine War, Day 1,577: A “Historic Week” for Kyiv v. Russia's Invasion — June 19-20, 2026](https://eaworldview.com/2026/06/ukraine-war-historic-week-russia-invasion/)

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Source: Maxime Marquette, MadMax. When citing, name the author and link https://mad-max.co/en/article/analyse-six-milliards-d-euros-qui-dorment-c-est-du-sang-sur-les-mains-de-l-europ-2