# ANALYSIS: 40-day influence operation: Kyiv targets Russia's resolve

> On June 25, 2026, following a meeting with Major General Yevhen Khmara, acting head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), President Volodymyr Zelensky published a message on Telegram that came down to a single sentence: "I have approved a 40-day influence operation for the Service against the aggressor state, aimed at compelling it to end the war." No operational details, n

- Author: Maxime Marquette
- Publisher: MadMax (https://mad-max.co)
- Section: Analysis
- Published: 2026-06-28
- Canonical URL: https://mad-max.co/en/article/analyse-operation-d-influence-de-40-jours-kyiv-vise-la-resolution-russe

## Introduction: when strikes become a diplomatic language

### A historic decision announced with restraint

On **June 25, 2026**, following a meeting with Major General **Yevhen Khmara**, acting head of the **Security Service of Ukraine (SBU)**, President **Volodymyr Zelensky** published a message on **Telegram** that came down to a single sentence: "I have approved a **40-day** influence operation for the Service against the aggressor state, aimed at compelling it to end the war." No operational details, no fanfare — just this concise, weighty declaration.

But behind that sentence lies a sophisticated military-diplomatic strategy. The operation approved by **Zelensky** combines three axes: special combat operations, long-range and medium-range strikes on Russian military and economic targets, and the strengthening of Ukrainian positions on the front. The whole is designed to make continuing the war more costly for **Moscow** than sitting down at a good-faith negotiating table.

### An unprecedented logic: strikes as economic sanctions

**Zelensky** himself described the strike operations as Ukrainian "sanctions" — a bold rhetorical framing that equates drones and missiles with instruments of economic pressure. This is no longer only about destroying military targets; it is about systematically degrading **Russia**'s economic capacity to finance its war. The oil refineries in **Ufa**, in **Bashkiria**, struck on **June 25** at **1,500 kilometers** from the front, illustrate that ambition.

This framing is not insignificant. It repositions **Ukraine** not as a defensive power absorbing an aggression but as an actor holding real leverage over the Russian economy. It is a significant transformation in Ukrainian posture — and a direct message to **Moscow**, to Washington, and to European partners.

*This decision by Zelensky is one of the boldest since the invasion began. Not a costly ground operation in human lives, but a graduated, methodical, surgical economic pressure campaign. This is modern warfare as democracies should wage it.*

## The mechanics of the operation: what we know

### The SBU and the Alpha group at the heart of the effort

The operation is run by the **SBU** and its elite unit, the **Special Operations Center Alpha**. **Zelensky** explicitly mentioned that this group was recording "the highest rates of defending Ukrainian positions on the front through the use of various types of drones." The exact nature of the targets and methods remains classified, but the strikes of the first days provide clear indications.

Within **24 hours** of the official announcement, Ukrainian drones struck the **Poltavskaya** oil depot in **Krasnodar Krai**, the Russian cable-laying ships **Volga** and **Vyatka** in **occupied Crimea**, an **S-400** air defense system radar station near **occupied Kerch**, and a chemical plant in the **Tula** region. **Occupied Crimea** declared a regional state of emergency on **June 26**.

### The choice of targets: a coherent logic

The targets are not selected at random. They follow a coherent logic: **oil refineries** and **fuel depots** to cause shortages affecting both Russian civilians and military logistics; **port and naval infrastructure** in Crimea to isolate the peninsula and disrupt supply lines; **air defense systems** to reduce Russian coverage and widen Ukrainian operational zones. Each strike aims to degrade Russia's capacity to sustain the war effort at a level that is beginning to show on the ground.

According to data compiled at the end of **June 2026**, more than **50 of Russia's 83 regions** had imposed restrictions on gasoline sales. The **Moscow** oil refinery, severely damaged in previous strikes, will not resume production before year's end. These statistics are not anecdotal — they point to a structural degradation of Russia's ability to fuel itself.

*There is something profoundly right about this strategy: striking where Russia is vulnerable, not where it is strong. Putin can replace soldiers more easily than he can replace refineries. This grim calculation is at the heart of the economic war Ukraine is now waging.*

## Crimea under a state of emergency: the immediate impact

### A peninsula besieged from within

**Occupied Crimea** is at the heart of the Ukrainian operation. On **June 26, 2026**, Russian occupation heads **Sergei Aksyonov** and **Mikhail Razvozhaev** signed decrees declaring a regional state of emergency, officially to "streamline economic matters." In reality, according to the **ISW**, Ukrainian strikes are creating fuel shortages, water supply problems, and triggering an exodus of the population from the occupied peninsula.

Logistical lines to **Crimea** — already weakened since the destruction of the **Kerch Bridge** and repeated strikes on railway lines — are now being attacked systematically. The cable ships **Volga** and **Vyatka**, struck in the port of **Zatoka**, were used to maintain undersea communications in the region. Their destruction is part of a strategy of deep disruption of Russian occupation administration in Crimea.

### Ukrainian intelligence confirms the crisis

Ukraine's foreign intelligence service (**SVR**) obtained internal documents showing that the Russian occupation administration itself admits it is unable to resolve the disruptions caused by Ukrainian operations. According to **Zelensky**, these documents describe a "crisis that deepens practically every day" in the occupied territories, covering fuel, military logistics, and administrative management. The demonstration is twofold: **Ukraine** is striking effectively and **Russia** cannot defend what it has stolen.

**Russia** tried to show it was intercepting Ukrainian drones — the **Russian Defense Ministry** claimed to have shot down **660 Ukrainian drones** in a single night, from **June 25 to 26**, which **TASS** called "the largest Ukrainian attack wave of 2026." But even if those numbers are accurate, the documented damage shows that enough drones are reaching their targets to sustain significant pressure.

*When the occupier must admit in its own internal documents that the situation is out of control, the strategy is working. Ukrainians have learned to strike fast, strike far, and strike where it hurts. This skill is irreversible.*

## Russia's economic pressure: the broader context

### An economy running on fumes

The Ukrainian operation is unfolding against a backdrop of mounting fragility in the Russian economy. **Russia's GDP** contracted by **0.2%** in the first quarter of **2026**. The budget deficit hovers near **3% of GDP**. Approximately **40%** of public expenditure is now allocated to the war effort. **Russia** plans to increase military spending by **4 to 5 trillion rubles** additionally in **2026**, according to **Bloomberg**.

The price of **Ural crude** — Russia's main source of state revenue — fell to **$44.3 per barrel** at a recent low, compared to **$109.7 on April 2, 2026**. The **21st European sanctions package** reinforced the price cap at **$44.10** and targeted more of the Russian **shadow fleet**. A Zelensky government sanctions adviser declared that the Russian economy had reached a structural "dead end."

### Oil as the lifeblood of the war

**Vladimir Putin** extended until end of **2027** his ban on Russian companies selling oil to buyers complying with the Western price cap. This measure aims to maintain oil revenues by circumventing sanctions — but it also complicates long-term planning for Russia's Asian clients, notably **China** and **India**. Sanctions combined with Ukrainian strikes on refineries are creating a simultaneous compression of both production and revenues.

This dual pressure — international sanctions and Ukrainian "sanctions" via strikes — forms the core of **Kyiv**'s strategy. The objective is not to destroy the Russian economy overnight, but to degrade it enough so that continuing the war becomes more costly than peace. It is a long-term bet, but one grounded in concrete economic indicators rather than wishful thinking.

*The Russian economy is not collapsing — war economists are unanimous on that. But it is structurally deteriorating, and that is enough for pressure to accumulate. Putin's regime has held together thanks to oil revenues. When the refineries burn, the calculation changes.*

## 40 days: why this precise timeframe?

### A signal of diplomatic temporality

The choice of **40 days** as the operational horizon is not arbitrary. **Zelensky** declared in the same announcements that the negotiating window was open until the winter of **2026**. The **40-day** operation is thus positioned as a phase of maximum pressure before a possible diplomatic relaunch. It ends at the beginning of **August**, theoretically leaving **Moscow** time to signal genuine willingness to negotiate before the onset of the autumn and winter combat season.

This timeframe is also calibrated against the American calendar. With the **NATO summit** scheduled for **July 7–8, 2026** in **Ankara** and ongoing discussions between **Washington** and **Tehran**, **Zelensky** is seeking to maximize pressure on **Moscow** precisely while attention is shifting to other files. It is a politically astute calculation.

### Can a 40-day window move Putin?

The honest question is this: can **40 days** of intensified strikes actually bring **Putin** to reconsider his positions? The nuanced answer is that probably not in terms of a radical change of course — but potentially yes in terms of increasing internal costs to the point of altering the cost-benefit calculus of the war for the Russian elites surrounding the president. The degradation of Russian military logistics could also give **Ukraine** tactical advantages on the ground.

**ISW** analyses indicate that the pace of Russian advances has slowed since **November 2025**, and that Ukraine's strike campaign "is inhibiting Russian logistics in occupied territories in ways that are beginning to manifest on the front line." If **40 days** of heightened pressure accelerate this trend, the result may not be peace — but it will be a better Ukrainian position on the ground for any future negotiations.

*I don't believe 40 days will make Putin fold. But I do believe that every additional day his refineries burn and his soldiers die in a war he cannot win militarily brings him closer to a moment when internal pressure becomes unbearable. That moment will come.*

## The Russian reaction: between denial and escalation

### The Kremlin downplays, Putin instrumentalizes

The official Russian reaction to the announcement of the **40-day** operation was predictable. Authorities claimed to be intercepting the majority of drones and missiles, denied the scale of damage to energy infrastructure, and framed Ukrainian strikes as terrorist acts targeting civilians. **Putin** for his part instrumentalized the situation by declaring that everything **Kyiv** does aims to "create conditions favorable for future position-of-strength negotiations" — a formulation that implicitly acknowledges that Ukrainian pressure is real.

**Russia** retaliated with **7 Iskander-M ballistic missiles** and **189 drones** against **Ukraine** on the night of **June 25–26**. Brutal attacks on Ukrainian civilians — but ones that do not reverse the economic pressure that Ukrainian strikes are exerting on Russia's industrial and logistical capacity.

### The Kremlin spokesman on American mediators

**Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov** admitted on **June 26, 2026** that American envoys **Steve Witkoff** and **Jared Kushner** were "busy with other files" and that discussions with them were expected to resume once those matters were concluded. This statement reveals a Russian dependence on American mediators that **Moscow** would rather not advertise — and an indirect acknowledgment that the diplomatic process is at a standstill.

Meanwhile, **Lukashenko's Belarus** continues to build military infrastructure along the border with **Ukraine** — roads, ammunition and fuel depots — according to information confirmed by **Zelensky**. But Belarusian drone relay stations used in attacks against **Ukraine** were neutralized by Ukrainian operations on **June 22**.

*Peskov admitting that Witkoff and Kushner are elsewhere — it's almost unintentional humor. Moscow needs American mediation it doesn't control in order to get out of this quagmire. And Trump is busy negotiating with Iran. The Kremlin was waiting at the wrong table.*

## Strikes on refineries: a documented economic lever

### The impact on Russia's fuel supply

Data available at the end of **June 2026** indicate that more than **50 of Russia's 83 regions** had imposed restrictions on gasoline sales — a direct consequence of repeated strikes on refineries. The **Moscow** refinery will not resume production before the end of **2026**. Refineries in **Ufa**, **Krasnodar**, and other regions have sustained significant damage. These shortages are beginning to affect the mobility of Russian civilians — and, more strategically, the logistics of Russian armed forces in combat zones.

**Ukraine** calls these operations "sanctions" — a bold rhetorical framing that equates strikes with instruments of economic pressure. This is more than a figure of speech: it is a coherent strategy that targets Russian state revenues rather than its direct military capabilities. Reducing oil revenues means reducing **Moscow**'s ability to fund its war machine. On this point, the strikes and Western sanctions are working in the same direction.

### ISW figures on Ukrainian strikes

According to the **ISW**, **Ukraine** conducted **210 intermediate strikes in May 2026** and **145 in June** through **June 22**. Of the **28 strikes on oil infrastructure in June** alone, the cumulative effects on Russian logistical capacity are measurable. These data are not projections — they are documented, open-source results that establish the partial effectiveness of the strike campaign even before the formal announcement of the **40-day** operation.

**Zelensky**'s decision to formalize and amplify this strategy in the form of a formal **40-day** operation is therefore grounded in concrete results, not hopes. It is a data-driven decision — and that is exactly what strategic decision-making in wartime should be.

*When the data shows the strategy is working — even partially — you scale it up. That is exactly what **Zelensky** is doing with this **40-day** operation. He is not inventing a new doctrine; he is intensifying what works.*

## Escalation risks: a question that deserves an honest answer

### Can Putin respond disproportionately?

The legitimate question the **40-day** operation raises is that of escalation. If Ukrainian strikes reach unprecedented levels of intensity — the wave of **June 25–26**, with **660 drones** intercepted according to **Russia**, is already described as "the largest of 2026" — **Putin** could decide to escalate his own strikes on Ukrainian cities, or even resort to more destructive weapons. This scenario cannot be dismissed.

**Russia** already launched **7 Iskander-M ballistic missiles** and **189 drones** against **Ukraine** on the night of **June 25–26**. These attacks are brutal and ongoing — but they are not qualitatively different from what has been happening for months. **Moscow** currently appears to be maintaining a symmetrical rather than disproportionate escalation. That calculus could change — but so far, **Russia** has not deployed the gravest elements of its escalation threat arsenal.

### The threat of tactical nuclear weapons

The Russian nuclear threat — brandished on multiple occasions since **2022** — remains in the back of minds. But analysts at the **ISW** and Western intelligence services regularly assess that the threshold for using tactical nuclear weapons is extremely high for **Moscow**: the diplomatic, economic, and military consequences would be catastrophic for **Russia**, including with its own allies such as **China**. This is not certainty — but it is a structural constraint that **Putin** himself has so far respected.

In this context, **Zelensky**'s **40-day** operation is a calculated bet that **Russia** will stay within the bounds of conventional escalation. It is a risky bet — but one grounded in precedents and analysis, not blind recklessness.

*Escalation risks are real. Ignoring them would be irresponsible. But overestimating them to justify inaction in the face of a war of aggression would be even more dangerous. **Zelensky** has chosen to act with full awareness. That is his right — and his duty.*

## Conclusion: a courageous strategy with real risks

### The limits of pressure through strikes

The **40-day** operation is bold, but it is not without risks. **Russia** could respond by escalating its own strikes on Ukrainian cities. It could attempt to accelerate its ground operations to offset the economic pressure. And if after **40 days** **Moscow** does not budge, **Zelensky** will have to decide what to do next — without being able to indefinitely defer the question of negotiations on current terms.

### But also an inexorable logic

Despite these risks, the underlying logic is sound: **Russia** will not come to the table in good faith as long as it believes it can win militarily. Making the continuation of the war sufficiently costly — in lives, in fuel, in rubles — is the only realistic way to create the conditions for an acceptable peace. **Zelensky**'s **40-day** operation may be the most genuinely diplomatic phase of the entire war. And its opening hours prove it means business.

*Pressure always ends up producing results — history has shown this time and again. The question is not whether this strategy can work, but whether the **West** will have the patience and determination to sustain it long enough for it to bear fruit.*

**By Maxime Marquette, columnist**

## Columnist's transparency note

### Editorial stance

I am not a journalist but a **columnist and analyst**. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies.

I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. **I claim analytical clarity**, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events.

### Method and sources

This text keeps the basic distinction between **verified facts and interpretive analysis**. The rule never changes: a factual claim is published only when a verifiable source supports it, and the sources this article actually used are listed under **Sources**, never here.

**Primary source families** used by the publication, when the story has them: official statements from governments and international institutions, public statements by political leaders, reports from intergovernmental organisations, dispatches from recognised international news agencies.

**Secondary source families**: specialised publications, internationally recognised news media, analyses from established research institutions, reports from industry organisations.

When an article cites statistical, economic or geopolitical data, it comes from the institutions that produce it (intergovernmental organisations, central banks, national statistics offices), and the exact institution is named under **Sources**.

### Nature of the analysis

The analyses, interpretations and perspectives in the analytical sections of this article are a **critical, contextual synthesis** based on the information available, the trends observed and the expert comments cited in the sources consulted.

My role is to interpret these facts, to set them in the context of today's geopolitical and economic dynamics, and to give them a coherent meaning within the larger story of the changes shaping our time. These analyses reflect expertise built through continuous observation of international affairs and an understanding of the strategic mechanisms that drive global actors.

This article describes a documented state of affairs on its publication date, not a prediction: later developments may shift its outlook. No update is promised in advance; when an article is corrected or completed, the change is dated in the text.

## Sources

### Primary sources

- [Kyiv Independent — Ukraine's SBU to wage 40-day pressure campaign against Russia, Zelensky says — June 25, 2026](https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-sbu-to-wage-40-day-pressure-campaign-against-russia-zelensky-says/)

- [Ukrainska Pravda — Zelensky approves SBU 40-day influence operation targeting Russia — June 25, 2026](https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/06/25/8041138/)

- [UNITED24 Media — Zelensky announces 40-day SBU operation to pressure Russia to end the war — June 25, 2026](https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/zelenskyy-announces-40-day-sbu-operation-to-pressure-russia-to-end-the-war-20180)

- [ISW — Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 26, 2026 — June 27, 2026](https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-26-2026/)

### Secondary sources

- [Euronews — Ukraine launches 40-day operation to "pressure Russia to end the war" — June 26, 2026](https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/06/26/ukraine-launches-40-day-operation-to-pressure-russia-to-end-the-war)

- [The Guardian — Zelensky announces 40-day Russia blitz to "influence the aggressor state" — June 26, 2026](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/26/ukraine-war-briefing-zelenskyy-40-day-russia-blitz)

- RBC-Ukraine — Russia's economy has reached a dead end — June 26, 2026

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Source: Maxime Marquette, MadMax. When citing, name the author and link https://mad-max.co/en/article/analyse-operation-d-influence-de-40-jours-kyiv-vise-la-resolution-russe