# ANALYSIS: The London Summit — Macron, Starmer, Merz and Zelensky lay the foundations for peace

> On June 7, 2026 in London, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to reaffirm their unwavering support for Ukraine and to define together the conditions they consider non-negotiable for any lasting peace. This meeting — convened in the context of the approaching

- Author: Maxime Marquette
- Publisher: MadMax (https://mad-max.co)
- Section: Analysis
- Published: 2026-06-29
- Canonical URL: https://mad-max.co/en/article/analyse-le-sommet-de-londres-macron-starmer-merz-et-zelensky-posent-les-jalons-d

## Introduction: June 7, 2026 — four leaders set the conditions for a just peace

### A trilateral meeting that became quadrilateral

On **June 7, 2026** in **London**, French President **Emmanuel Macron**, British Prime Minister **Keir Starmer**, and German Chancellor **Friedrich Merz** met with Ukrainian President **Volodymyr Zelensky** to reaffirm their unwavering support for **Ukraine** and to define together the conditions they consider non-negotiable for any lasting peace. This meeting — convened in the context of the approaching **G7 in Évian** and the upcoming **NATO summit in Ankara** — is no ordinary gathering. It is a moment of doctrine, a moment when Ukraine's closest allies clearly state what they expect from any resolution to the crisis.

The **four conditions** set out are precise and demanding: a **full ceasefire**, a **withdrawal of Russian troops**, **binding security guarantees** including the deployment of a **Multinational Ukraine Force**, and the **maintenance of the freeze on Russian assets** until full compensation is paid. These conditions close the door to a rushed peace deal at **Ukraine**'s expense. For **Moscow**, they are also a red line that says: there is no easy way out.

### The context: a particularly charged diplomatic week

The **June 7** meeting fits within an especially intense diplomatic sequence: the **G7 in Évian** on **June 15–17**, **Ramstein** on **June 18**, the **European Council** on **June 18–19**, and the upcoming **NATO summit in Ankara**. The **London** meeting served to coordinate positions before all these gatherings — to ensure that **Paris**, **London**, and **Berlin** spoke with one voice on the fundamental questions related to **Ukraine**.

This prior coordination is crucial in great-power diplomacy. Multilateral summits only produce concrete results when key actors have agreed behind closed doors before the plenary sessions. The **London** meeting is one of those essential preparations that make major political decisions possible.

*I recognize what it means that Macron, Starmer, and Merz — the leaders of France, the United Kingdom, and Germany — meet in London with Zelensky to coordinate their positions. Four years ago, such a meeting would have been unimaginable. Today, it is diplomatic normalcy. The war has forged solidarities that peacetime had failed to create.*

## The four conditions: a firm and non-negotiable peace doctrine

### The ceasefire and withdrawal: the first two demands

The first two conditions set by the four leaders — a **full ceasefire** and a **withdrawal of Russian troops** — appear simple but carry enormous political weight. They implicitly reject any "conflict freeze" arrangement in which **Russia** would retain the occupied Ukrainian territories in exchange for a halt to hostilities. That type of deal, occasionally floated in certain diplomatic circles as a pragmatic compromise, is categorically refused.

The withdrawal demand is the condition most difficult for **Moscow** to satisfy — and that is precisely why it is on the list. It clearly states: a peace that rewards aggression by leaving **Russia** on conquered territories is unacceptable. It is a principled position grounded in international law, one that makes **Ukraine**'s territorial integrity an uncrossable line.

### The Multinational Ukraine Force: the concrete security guarantee

The third condition — **binding security guarantees including the deployment of a Multinational Ukraine Force** — is the most innovative and concrete element of the peace doctrine outlined in **London**. This Multinational Force, whose precise contours remain to be defined, would be deployed on Ukrainian territory to guarantee compliance with any eventual peace agreement and deter any further Russian aggression.

This concept recognizes a fundamental reality: a peace without concrete security guarantees is a truce, not a peace. **Ukraine** needs to know that if **Russia** violates an agreement, there will be an automatic and binding international response — not just more condemnations. The **Multinational Ukraine Force** would be that institutional response.

*The Multinational Ukraine Force is a concept that both fascinates and questions me. It resembles a partial guardianship arrangement — and I understand that some Ukrainians see it that way. But in the current context, where Russia has shown it does not honor unguaranteed agreements, an international military presence may be the only credible guarantee. It is not perfect. It is realistic.*

## Coordination ahead of the G7 in Évian: preparing the major announcements

### The London meeting as G7 preparation

The **June 7, 2026** meeting also had an immediate practical objective: to coordinate European positions ahead of the **G7 in Évian**. The **four leaders** wanted to ensure that **G7** decisions on **Ukraine** — particularly on frozen Russian assets, financial support, and sanctions — would reflect the positions agreed upon in **London**.

This prior coordination bore fruit. The **G7 in Évian** produced concrete commitments on support for **Ukraine**, on strengthening sanctions against **Russia**, and on the **ERA mechanism** for mobilizing frozen Russian assets. These results would not have been as coherent without the preparation done at the **London** meeting.

### Ramstein and the European Council in the same dynamic

The coordination dynamic initiated on **June 7** in **London** continued at **Ramstein on June 18**, the **European Council on June 18–19**, and the **E5 meeting in Berlin on June 22**. Within the span of a few weeks, Europe's allies consolidated a common doctrine, formalized major military and financial commitments, and aligned their positions ahead of the **NATO summit in Ankara**.

This cadence of summits and coordination meetings can appear excessive to an outside observer. But for those involved, it is the normal mechanics of intensive crisis diplomacy. The **Ukraine war** has forced democracies to operate at a coordination speed they had not practiced in decades.

*I am sometimes irritated by the procedural dimension of this diplomacy — summit after summit, declaration after declaration. But when I look at the coherence of the decisions produced over June 2026 as a whole, I have to admit the machine works. Slowly, imperfectly, but it works.*

## Freezing Russian assets until full compensation: the fourth condition

### A commitment of duration against Russia

The fourth condition — the **maintenance of frozen Russian assets until full compensation** — is a durational commitment the four leaders wanted to inscribe as a non-negotiable principle. It responds to a legitimate fear: that a peace agreement would lead to the premature lifting of sanctions and asset freezes before **Ukraine** has been compensated for the damage caused by Russian aggression.

This condition carries considerable weight. It means that even after a ceasefire and a withdrawal of Russian troops, the frozen assets — roughly **$300 billion** — would remain locked until **Russia** has paid the compensation owed to **Ukraine**. It is a form of permanent economic pressure on **Moscow**, designed to ensure that peace is also a just peace.

### The International Claims Commission: the compensation mechanism

The **International Claims Commission for Ukraine**, whose establishment is advancing in parallel with the **Special Tribunal for the Crime of Aggression**, is the mechanism designed to assess and process Ukrainian compensation claims. Its operationalization, welcomed by the **European Council on June 18–19, 2026**, is a key piece of the justice and accountability architecture being built around the war in **Ukraine**.

The fact that this condition — frozen assets until full compensation — appears among the four peace conditions set in **London** shows that European allies have incorporated the legal and economic dimension into their vision of peace. It is not just a ceasefire they want — it is a comprehensive resolution that addresses the consequences of the aggression in all their dimensions.

*The frozen assets until full compensation condition is, in my view, the most important of the four. It guarantees that peace will not be a disguised amnesty. It tells Moscow: you will pay in full for the damage you caused. I find this vision of international justice not only right, but necessary for the credibility of international law itself.*

## Zelensky in London: a head of state negotiating from strength

### The transformation of Zelensky's standing on the world stage

**Volodymyr Zelensky** arrived in **London** on **June 7, 2026** not as a leader pleading with allies, but as an equal partner co-defining the conditions of a just peace. This transformation of his diplomatic standing is one of the most remarkable achievements of his presidency: he transformed **Ukraine** from a victim-country seeking pity into a strategic actor co-defining European security policy.

This position of relative strength is the product of four years of successful resistance, mastered communication, and intensive diplomacy. It also rests on a military reality: **Ukraine** holds, strikes deep, and innovates. These results give **Zelensky** a credibility and weight that few leaders of comparably sized countries possess on the world stage.

### The London conditions as Zelensky's minimum program

The **four conditions** set in **London** represent **Zelensky**'s minimum program — the floor below which he cannot accept a deal without losing the legitimacy earned through four years of resistance. This is not stubbornness: it is recognition that his population has consented to immense sacrifices to avoid accepting a peace that would resemble a disguised defeat.

This domestic political constraint is real. **Zelensky** cannot sign an agreement that would abandon occupied territories, provide no binding security guarantees, and release Russian assets without compensation. Any agreement that failed to meet these minimum criteria would be politically unacceptable in **Ukraine** — and he would be right to reject it.

*I see Zelensky in London and think of the head of state who, in February 2022, answered American evacuation offers with "I need ammunition, not a ride." There is absolute consistency between that man in 2022 and the one in 2026 co-defining peace conditions with the leaders of France, the UK, and Germany. Resistance has a diplomatic reward.*

## Implications for the NATO summit in Ankara

### Ankara as the next key moment

The **London** discussions had the **NATO summit in Ankara** firmly in view. The four leaders discussed coordination for that event, knowing it would be the venue where long-term security guarantees for **Ukraine** — including the question of **NATO** membership and/or alternative guarantees — would be negotiated with all **32** Alliance members.

The question of Ukrainian **NATO** membership remains thorny. Secretary General **Mark Rutte** has repeatedly stated there is no unanimity on near-term membership. But alternative security guarantees — including the **Multinational Ukraine Force** — could provide a credible security path without requiring formal near-term accession.

### The diplomacy of peace as a minefield

The road to a just peace is strewn with pitfalls. Russian demands — including **Ukraine**'s withdrawal from the **Donbas** — are incompatible with the conditions set in **London**. **Trump**, who wants a swift peace without necessarily ensuring it is just, could seek to bypass European demands. And divisions within **NATO** — particularly around countries more accommodating toward **Moscow** — could be exploited by Russian diplomacy.

These obstacles are real. They do not mean peace is impossible — they mean it requires constant vigilance and a European cohesion that cannot be fragmented by Russian and American pressures. The **London** meeting of **June 7, 2026** is one answer to this challenge: creating a hard European core that holds together on the essential conditions.

*The road to peace is long and dangerous. Every summit, every coordination meeting, every joint declaration is an attempt to maintain this cohesion against centrifugal pressures. I am not certain it will be enough. But I am certain that without these efforts, the probability of a just peace would be far lower.*

## The role of Trump: the most unpredictable variable in the equation

### Washington between disengagement and pressure for a quick deal

**Donald Trump** is the most unpredictable variable in the peace equation defined at **London**. Having directed his attention toward **Iran** since the spring of **2026**, he relaunched his interest in **Ukraine** at the **G7 in Évian** in June. His meeting with **Zelensky** on the sidelines of the summit on **June 16** led him to declare that **"Russia must make a deal"** — an encouraging phrase on substance, but whose concrete meaning has yet to be confirmed by action.

The problem with **Trump** is not a lack of willingness to end the war — he has been clear about that since his campaign. It is his definition of what constitutes a good deal. For him, a quick agreement that stops the fighting may seem acceptable even if it does not satisfy all the **London** conditions. European allies must therefore ensure their conditions are sufficiently embedded in any negotiation process involving **Washington** to avoid being bypassed.

### Structural dependence on American engagement

Despite the growing strength of European support, **Ukraine** remains dependent on the **United States** in several critical dimensions: satellite intelligence, certain electronic capabilities, and the political weight of **Washington** in any negotiation with **Moscow**. This dependence means that the peace conditions set in **London** cannot be maintained against **Trump**'s will — they must be defended within the framework of a difficult but necessary transatlantic dialogue.

European coordination meetings — including the one in **London** — also serve to reinforce the collective European position in this dialogue with **Washington**. A united **Europe** around clear conditions is harder to work around than a fragmented **Europe** where each capital can be approached separately. That is the strategic value of the cohesion displayed on **June 7**.

*Trump is the wild card in this diplomatic chess match. He can accelerate peace — that would be positive. He can also impose a rushed peace that satisfies none of the London conditions — that would be a slow-motion catastrophe. I have no certainty about what he will do. But I know that Europe must hold its demands, even under Washington's pressure.*

## Negotiation prospects: three rounds without agreement, but dialogue continues

### The US-Russia-Ukraine negotiations in 2026

According to diplomatic sources, **three rounds of US-Russia-Ukraine negotiations** have taken place since the start of **2026** without reaching a ceasefire agreement. The main reason for the failure: Russian demands for Ukraine's withdrawal from the **Donbas** — incompatible with **Kyiv**'s position and with the conditions set in **London**. These negotiations illustrate both that dialogue exists and that fundamental positions remain far apart.

The fact that these negotiations have taken place, even without result, is significant. It indicates that **Russia** is willing to sit at the table under certain conditions — implying that military and economic pressure is beginning to have effect. But "sitting at the table" is very different from "accepting reasonable conditions." **Russia** is still seeking an exit on its own terms — and that is precisely what the **London** conditions aim to prevent.

### Maximum pressure strategy as a prerequisite for negotiation

The logic behind the **40-day operation** launched by **Zelensky** in late **June 2026** — striking Russian energy infrastructure to force **Moscow** to negotiate — is consistent with the peace doctrine defined in **London**. One does not obtain fair peace terms by negotiating from a position of weakness. Maximum pressure on **Russia** is the prerequisite for negotiations that could produce an agreement respecting the four allies' conditions.

The **London** allies understand this logic. Their weapons deliveries and statements are not aimed solely at supporting **Ukraine** militarily — they are also aimed at creating the conditions for negotiations in which **Ukraine** will be in a position to defend its interests. A militarily strong **Ukraine** is a diplomatically strong **Ukraine**.

*The logic of maximum pressure to negotiate from strength is as old as diplomacy itself. It is cold and cynical. But in a world where Russia only respects force, it may be the only language it understands. I say "may be" — because I am not certain, and humility is required before a situation this complex.*

## Conclusion: London as a compass for demanding peace diplomacy

### What the June 7 meeting says about the state of the Alliance

The **London** meeting of **June 7, 2026** is a strong signal of the cohesion of the European core around **Ukraine**. **Paris**, **London**, and **Berlin** — often divided by diverging national interests — speak here with a common voice on the essential conditions of a just peace. With **Zelensky** at their side, not as a spectator but as co-author of this doctrine, the meeting illustrates the maturity of a partnership forged over time.

This cohesion is not guaranteed forever. It can be tested by elections, economic pressures, and demands from **Washington**. But the fact that it exists today, expressed in clear and non-negotiable peace conditions, is a significant political reality that will weigh in the negotiations ahead.

### Just peace: a requirement, not an aspiration

*I end this analysis with the conviction that the conditions set in London on June 7, 2026 are the right ones. They are not perfect — no peace conditions ever are. But they are honest toward Ukrainian sacrifices, consistent with international law, and firm enough to prevent a peace that would be a disguised defeat. That is what could be hoped of this meeting.*

The lesson of the **London** meeting is simple: a just peace is not a utopian ideal — it is a political and legal demand grounded in international law principles and the sacrifices made by the Ukrainian people. **Macron**, **Starmer**, and **Merz** said so clearly on **June 7, 2026**. **Zelensky** has been saying it from the start. This file will not be closed by a rushed deal. A just peace or no peace — that is the line these four leaders drew together in **London**, and it is the line that must hold.

**By Maxime Marquette, columnist**

## Columnist's transparency note

### Editorial stance

I am not a journalist but a **columnist and analyst**. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies.

I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. **I claim analytical clarity**, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events.

### Method and sources

This text keeps the basic distinction between **verified facts and interpretive analysis**. The rule never changes: a factual claim is published only when a verifiable source supports it, and the sources this article actually used are listed under **Sources**, never here.

**Primary source families** used by the publication, when the story has them: official statements from governments and international institutions, public statements by political leaders, reports from intergovernmental organisations, dispatches from recognised international news agencies.

**Secondary source families**: specialised publications, internationally recognised news media, analyses from established research institutions, reports from industry organisations.

When an article cites statistical, economic or geopolitical data, it comes from the institutions that produce it (intergovernmental organisations, central banks, national statistics offices), and the exact institution is named under **Sources**.

### Nature of the analysis

The analyses, interpretations and perspectives in the analytical sections of this article are a **critical, contextual synthesis** based on the information available, the trends observed and the expert comments cited in the sources consulted.

My role is to interpret these facts, to set them in the context of today's geopolitical and economic dynamics, and to give them a coherent meaning within the larger story of the changes shaping our time. These analyses reflect expertise built through continuous observation of international affairs and an understanding of the strategic mechanisms that drive global actors.

This article describes a documented state of affairs on its publication date, not a prediction: later developments may shift its outlook. No update is promised in advance; when an article is corrected or completed, the change is dated in the text.

## Sources

### Primary sources

- [French Diplomacy — France, UK and Germany voice unwavering support for Ukraine — June 2026](https://uk.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/france-uk-and-germany-voice-unwavering-support-ukraine)

- [UK Government — PM meeting with President Zelenskyy of Ukraine — June 16, 2026](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-meeting-with-president-zelenskyy-of-ukraine-16-june-2026)

- [The Guardian — Kyiv's allies push for peace at G7 summit in France — June 16, 2026](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/16/ukraine-war-briefing-kyivs-allies-push-for-peace-at-g7-summit-in-france)

### Secondary sources

- [United24 Media — Ukraine and France expand air defense cooperation — 2026](https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/ukraine-and-france-expand-air-defense-cooperation-with-focus-on-aster-30-missiles-19747)

- [RBC Ukraine — Ukraine and Germany to develop missiles together — June 18, 2026](https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukraine-and-germany-to-develop-missiles-for-1781802434.html)

- [WSWS — Analysis of the European leaders' meeting on Ukraine — June 8, 2026](https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2026/06/08/blfz-j08.html)

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Source: Maxime Marquette, MadMax. When citing, name the author and link https://mad-max.co/en/article/analyse-le-sommet-de-londres-macron-starmer-merz-et-zelensky-posent-les-jalons-d