# ANALYSIS: Inflation at 3.2% in the eurozone — the war in Iran showed up on your heating bill

> On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel struck Iran. Four months later, the effect of that military decision has lodged itself in every European's heating bill. Eurozone inflation reached 3.2% in May 2026, up from 3.0% in April — its highest level since 2023. This is not a coincidence. It is a geopolitical equation whose energy variable citizens are now paying for.

- Author: Maxime Marquette
- Publisher: MadMax (https://mad-max.co)
- Section: Analysis
- Published: 2026-06-27
- Canonical URL: https://mad-max.co/en/article/analyse-inflation-a-3-2-en-zone-euro-la-guerre-en-iran-s-est-invitee-dans-votre

## Introduction: The price of war is paid at the pump too

### When Tehran closes the Strait, Brussels trembles

On **February 28, 2026**, the **United States** and **Israel** struck **Iran**. Four months later, the effect of that military decision has lodged itself in every European's heating bill. **Eurozone inflation** reached **3.2%** in May 2026, up from **3.0%** in April — its highest level since **2023**. This is not a coincidence. It is a geopolitical equation whose energy variable citizens are now paying for.

The mechanism is brutal in its simplicity. The **Strait of Hormuz**, through which approximately **20%** of the world's oil and **liquefied natural gas** supply transits, has been partially closed since the start of the conflict. Energy prices surged **10.9%** year-on-year in the eurozone. The **European Central Bank** responded with a **25 basis point** rate hike on **June 11, 2026** — its first in three years. Europe is caught between a war on another continent and the monetary austerity it is imposing on itself.

### A scenario economists simulated but did not anticipate

The economic models of the **IMF** and the **ECB** had incorporated a theoretical risk of **Middle East** conflict in their stress-test scenarios. But the gap between simulating a disruption and living through one is a chasm of real economic suffering. The revisions are damning: the **ECB** raised its **2026** inflation forecast to **3.0%** from **2.6%** previously, and cut its **GDP** growth forecast to **0.8%** from **0.9%**.

These figures look small. They are not. Behind every tenth of a point in lost growth lie companies freezing their hiring, investment projects put on hold, households choosing between heating and food. When the **ECB** speaks of **0.1 percentage point of lost GDP**, it is describing a lived reality for millions of Europeans who never asked to be part of this war.

*Globalization was sold to us as a promise of shared prosperity. Not enough people read the fine print: it also made us partners in other people's catastrophes. The **Strait of Hormuz** is **6,000 kilometers from Brussels**. And yet it sits at the heart of your gas bill. It's vertiginous — and none of the European capitals explain this honestly to their citizens.*

## The energy shock: autopsy of a direct transmission

### Hormuz, the strangler of the global market

The **Strait of Hormuz** is the planet's most strategically critical passage for hydrocarbons. Under normal conditions, approximately **20 to 21 million barrels per day** transit through it — roughly one fifth of global oil consumption. Since the conflict erupted in **February 2026**, maritime insurers have multiplied their premiums by **three to five times**, pushing many operators to divert via alternative routes that are twice as long and costly.

The partial closure of **Hormuz** is not total — but it doesn't need to be to trigger a crisis. A disruption of **30 to 40%** of normal traffic is enough to strain markets beyond the rational. **Brent** futures flirted with **$105 to $115 per barrel** in March–April 2026 before stabilizing at elevated levels. For **Europe**, which imports large volumes of liquefied natural gas from the **Persian Gulf**, the impact is amplified by a structural dependency built precisely to escape reliance on Russian gas.

### Energy drives inflation, everything else follows

The energy component of the harmonized consumer price index in the eurozone stands at **+10.9%** in May 2026 — the figure that alone accounts for most of the overall inflation increase. But energy never stays contained: it contaminates industrial production costs, transportation prices, and agricultural inputs. These are what economists call **second-round effects** — and the **ECB** fears them more than the initial shock itself.

**Eurostat** data show that food prices have already begun to incorporate the rise in logistics and energy costs. The chemicals, ceramics, and glass sectors — highly energy-intensive — are reporting severely compressed margins. Several major German and Dutch manufacturing companies have announced capacity reductions or temporary plant closures. The **creeping deindustrialization** of Europe, accelerated by the Russian shock of **2022**, is picking up speed again in a different but equally devastating form.

***Europe** spent years weaning its industry off Russian gas. It found itself dependent on **Gulf LNG**. And now the Gulf is burning. This isn't bad luck — it's systemic vulnerability that nobody wanted to name when it mattered. We replaced one addiction with another, with a sense of duty accomplished.*

## The ECB rowing against the tide: hiking rates during a near-recession

### An uncomfortable but defensible decision

On **June 11, 2026**, the **ECB Governing Council** decided to raise its three key interest rates by **25 basis points**. The deposit facility rate moves to **2.25%**, the main refinancing rate to **2.40%**, and the marginal lending facility to **2.65%**. This is the first hike since **September 2023** — and it comes in a particularly ungrateful context: an economy barely growing, fragile domestic demand, and imported inflation triggered by an external shock that rates cannot directly resolve.

The **ECB's** logic is nonetheless rigorous. If energy commodity inflation passes through into wages and expectations, the price-wage spiral can take hold, making disinflation far more costly over time. By acting early and modestly, the institution in **Frankfurt** is trying to anchor expectations before the problem becomes structural. **Christine Lagarde** explicitly cited the risks stemming from the war in Iran as a factor justifying vigilance — while stopping short of claiming that monetary policy can end a geopolitical crisis.

### The immediate losers from the rate hike

Every rate hike has its victims. In **2026**, they are primarily households with variable-rate mortgages, **SMEs** refinancing their debt, and the most indebted member states. **Italy**, whose debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds **140%**, sees its refinancing costs rise at a moment when it can afford no additional strain on its public finances. **Spain** and **Greece** are in similar situations, even if their recent budgetary trajectories are more favorable.

The European real estate market, already under pressure since the first hikes of **2022–2023**, receives another shock. Real estate brokers in **Germany** and the **Netherlands** are reporting a relapse in mortgage demand. For variable-rate homeowners in **Spain** or **Portugal**, the translation is immediate and painful: monthly payments rising in a context where energy bills are already swelling. The **ECB** is right on principle — but the most vulnerable citizens don't have the long-term horizon that central bankers allow themselves.

*Raising rates when the economy is wobbling means giving bitter medicine to a weakened patient. I understand the logic — the **ECB** cannot let inflation entrench. But someone will one day have to account to those who lost their home, their job, or their margins, while economists debated **basis points** in air-conditioned rooms in **Frankfurt**.*

## Growth stalling: 0.3% and the stagflation threat

### The numbers that haunt EU corridors

Eurozone growth for the first quarter of **2026** was revised to **+0.3%** — a number that keeps the head above water but outlines no dynamic. The **ECB's** annual projection for **2026** has been cut to **0.8%**. This is technically not a recession — but it's the kind of growth that creates no jobs, doesn't reduce public debt, and doesn't improve citizens' living standards. It is stagnation in motion.

The specter haunting economists is not easily named in official communications, but everyone is thinking about it: **stagflation**. This toxic combination of economic stagnation and persistent inflation is a central banker's nightmare, because the standard tools cannot fix both problems simultaneously. Cutting rates would stimulate growth but fuel inflation. Holding or raising them protects against inflation but strangles growth. The **ECB** is navigating on a razor's edge.

### Germany, the weak link that worries everyone

**Germany**, the historical engine of the European economy, has been experiencing a period of recession or near-zero growth since **2023**. The **war in Ukraine** had broken its cheap-energy-and-China-exports model. The war in **Iran** inflicts a new energy surcharge at the precise moment when its auto industry was attempting to restructure. **Volkswagen**, **BASF**, **Thyssenkrupp** — the great names of German heavy industry are under pressure that some analysts describe as **existential**.

Berlin announced an emergency energy plan in April **2026**, including targeted subsidies for the most exposed industries and an acceleration of tenders for additional **LNG** terminals in the **North Sea**. But construction timelines are measured in years, not months. In the short term, **Germany** is suffering — and when it suffers, the entire European economy feels the vibrations. The **Munich Ifo Institute** published a business climate index that has declined for the fourth consecutive month in May **2026**.

***Germany** is paying today for two decades of deliberate dependence on cheap energy — first Russian, then Qatari and Iranian. This wasn't naivety. It was a conscious industrial choice that generated enormous profits. German taxpayers are now footing the bill that **shareholders** pocketed. Will the lesson finally be learned? I wouldn't bet on it.*

## The most affected member states: a map of pain

### The South and East under maximum pressure

The impact of the energy shock is not uniform across **Europe**. Countries whose energy mix is most dependent on liquefied natural gas and oil imports pay an extra premium. **Greece**, **Italy**, **Spain**, and **Portugal** — already weakened by high debt levels — see their national inflation exceed the eurozone average. In **Italy**, inflation reaches **3.7%** in May; in **Greece**, domestic energy prices have risen **15.2%** year-on-year.

Countries in **Central and Eastern Europe**, including **Poland**, **Hungary**, and the **Baltic states**, face a different but equally strained situation. Their exposure to the Ukrainian conflict had already led them to massive defense investments, weighing on budgets. The rise in energy prices complicates budgetary trade-offs that were already tight. For the Baltic states in particular, which completed their disconnection from the Russian power grid in **2025**, transition costs are piling up in an unfavorable context.

### The relative winners: who is holding up best?

**France**, with its nuclear fleet — which produces approximately **70%** of its electricity — absorbs part of the energy shock in a more cushioned way. Its inflation remains contained at **2.6%** in May, well below the eurozone average. This is a competitive advantage that **Paris** asserts every time the debate on Europe's energy future is opened — with growing success since Russian and Middle Eastern gas proved as unreliable as critics warned.

**Finland** and **Sweden**, though the latter is outside the eurozone, also benefit from their diversified energy mix — nuclear, hydro, wind — to partially absorb the shock. The countries most resilient to this crisis are precisely those that invested most in the **energy transition** and in diversified supply. It's an empirically irrefutable demonstration: energy sovereignty is not an ideological quirk, it's insurance against other people's wars.

***France** and its nuclear plants watch their neighbors suffer with a compassion that struggles to hide a quiet vindication. I don't say this with malice. But it needs to be named: for twenty years, those who argued for nuclear power were called irresponsible. Today, their **energy resilience** is the most complete answer they could have given.*

## Financial markets: an anxious but disciplined reading

### The euro under pressure, spreads widening

European financial markets digested the **ECB** rate hike with relative discipline. The **euro** strengthened slightly against the **dollar** in the days following the decision — a sign that markets approved **Frankfurt's** rigorous posture. But **sovereign spreads** — the yield gap between German bonds and those of peripheral countries — widened. **Italy** sees its spread against the **Bund** return to levels reminiscent of the tensions of **2023**.

European equity markets are oscillating between two contradictory narratives. On one side, the rate hike strengthens the appeal of bonds and weighs on growth stock valuations. On the other, certain sectors — energy, defense, nuclear utilities — benefit directly from the geopolitical context. The **Euro Stoxx 50** index shows a negative return since the start of the Iranian conflict, but sector dispersion is considerable. This is not a generalized stock market recession — it is a forced recomposition.

### Commodities and speculation on Hormuz

Commodity traders have been playing a tense score since **February 2026**. Every news item about an additional military strike, every rumor of reinforced **Hormuz** blockage, every maritime incident report triggers volatility spikes in **Brent** and European **Henry Hub**. The geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices is estimated at between **$15 and $25 per barrel** by analysts — a premium that will one day disappear abruptly when the conflict resolves, but that is causing pain now.

The **sovereign wealth funds** of non-belligerent **Gulf** countries — notably **Saudi Arabia** and the **UAE** — have quietly increased their foreign exchange reserves and their positions in gold. A signal that even the best-informed players in the region are hedging against a broadening of the conflict. This market reading is more alarming than any diplomatic statement: when the Gulf's wealthy buy gold, it means they don't trust short-term regional stability.

*I monitor commodity markets like a geopolitical thermometer. When professional speculators buy gold and flee the **Gulf**, official diplomacy can talk of de-escalation all it wants — the real message is in the prices. And the prices are saying, right now: nobody truly knows how long this will last. That's the only honest truth available.*

## The European fiscal response: between solidarity and paralysis

### The debate over an emergency energy fund

Facing the crisis, the **European Commission** has relaunched the debate on an energy solidarity mechanism inspired by the **REPowerEU** plan implemented after Russia's **2022** invasion. A common LNG emergency reserve, alternative supply corridors via the **Eastern Mediterranean** and **North Africa**, a stabilization fund for the most vulnerable households — these proposals have been circulating in **Brussels** corridors since March **2026**, but face the classic opposition of the frugal bloc (**Netherlands**, **Austria**, **Sweden**), which refuses any additional mutualization of debts or risks.

The result of this paralysis is predictable: each member state improvises its own national response, with very variable means and effectiveness. **Germany** subsidizes, **France** protects its consumers through regulated tariffs, **Italy** takes on more debt. The absence of a coordinated common response is itself information about the real state of European solidarity when the stakes get concrete. The **rhetoric of European unity** regularly shatters against the reality of diverging national interests.

### The unlearned lessons of 2022

In **2022**, faced with the Russian gas shock, **Europe** had responded with remarkable agility: accelerated storage filling, voluntary consumption reductions, rapid diversification toward **American** and Qatari LNG. These efforts had averted the feared energy catastrophe. In **2026**, facing a different but comparable shock, the response is slower, more fragmented, more exhausted. European politics spent much of its crisis capital in **2022–2023**. It returns less well armed for the next round.

Energy security experts point to a painful paradox: to exit Iranian dependency via **Gulf LNG**, **Europe** needs long-term contracts with stable producers. But the **United States**, the world's top LNG exporter, is increasingly conditioning its deliveries on political and tariff considerations. **Europe** finds itself begging for its energy supply from both conflict zones and an American partner leveraging its advantage. This is not an energy policy. It's survival.

***Europe** has a particular talent for drawing the wrong lessons from good crises. In **2022**, it understood it was too dependent on **Russia**. The logical conclusion was: massively diversify toward nuclear, renewables, energy efficiency. The practical conclusion was: replace Russian gas with Gulf gas. And here we are, in the same trap, at a different latitude.*

## The impact on households: who really absorbs the shock?

### Lower middle classes, the first victims

Macroeconomic statistics abstract away lived reality. An inflation rate of **3.2%** means concretely that a French household spending **€2,000 per month** on goods and services pays on average **€64 more** each month — that is, **€768 more per year**. For a German household at **€2,500**, the extra monthly bill exceeds **€80**. These are not abstract numbers. They are real, daily, painful budget trade-offs for those with no margin.

**Eurofound** studies consistently show that energy inflation hits households with low and middle incomes proportionally harder. These households devote a higher share of their budget to energy and food — the two categories hit hardest. They have less savings capacity to absorb shocks. And they are often renters, unable to invest in thermal insulation or solar panels that would reduce their exposure to market prices. The **energy transition** protects owners. It leaves tenants exposed.

### Government aid: a band-aid on an open fracture

European governments have multiplied tariff shields, energy checks, and tax exemptions. In **France**, the **tariff shield** cost the state more than **€40 billion** between **2022** and **2024**. Reconstituting a similar mechanism in **2026** in a context of strained public finances, with the **ECB** raising rates, is both politically necessary and economically costly. Every euro of energy subsidy is an additional euro of debt whose interest future generations will pay.

The effectiveness of these mechanisms is also uneven across countries. Nordic countries, with more robust social protection systems and stronger tax bases, can deploy more generous and better-targeted aid. **Italy** or **Greece**, whose fiscal margins are virtually nonexistent, must choose between protecting households and respecting the **Stability Pact** rules that **Brussels** has reactivated. These are impossible political choices — and they create intra-European tensions that technocrats would prefer to ignore.

*We are collectively incapable of admitting a simple truth: emergency aid resolves nothing. It buys time. And during that bought time, we are not building solar panels, not retrofitting energy-inefficient buildings, not investing in fourth-generation nuclear. We pay twice: today with subsidies, tomorrow with the same unresolved dependency.*

## The ECB facing its own contradictions

### The price stability mandate against the reality of an external shock

The **ECB's** mandate is crystal clear on paper: maintain inflation close to **2%** over the medium term. The reality of **2026** is less accommodating. The inflation the **ECB** is fighting is not demand-driven — it is not caused by an overheated economy or households spending too much. It is supply-side inflation, imported, triggered by a war that monetary policy cannot end. Raising rates to reduce inflation caused by the closure of **Hormuz** is like prescribing aspirin for a fracture — it reduces the pain but doesn't treat the cause.

The **ECB** knows this. **Christine Lagarde** implicitly acknowledged it at her **June 11** press conference, stressing that monetary policy "cannot be the only response tool" and that coordinated fiscal and structural policies are needed. That is a diplomatically worded call for governments to act. But European governments, constrained by budget rules and their own political divergences, are struggling to respond with the necessary coherence.

### Credibility at stake: inflation expectations as an obsession

What the **ECB** is protecting above all is its anti-inflation credibility. If households and businesses begin to believe that inflation will remain elevated, they will incorporate this expectation into wage negotiations and pricing decisions — creating the spiral the central bank fears most. This is why the **25 basis point** hike of **June 11** is as much a signal as an economic measure: it says "we are serious, we will react to inflation even when it is uncomfortable."

Surveys on eurozone inflation expectations for the next **3 to 5 years** show that households and markets remain broadly anchored around **2 to 2.5%** — a positive signal that justifies the **ECB's** strategy. If these expectations had slipped toward **4 or 5%**, as they briefly flirted with those levels in **2022**, the central bank would have needed to act far more brutally. For now, credibility is intact — provided the conflict in **Iran** does not last too long.

*The **ECB** is an institution doing what it can with the tools it has. I don't fault it. But there is something troubling about watching a technical institution manage the economic consequences of a war while European politicians — who hold the actual levers of action — gather at summits, consume coffee, and publish communiqués. European crisis **governance** remains an infinitely unfinished project.*

## The geopolitical implications: energy as a long-game weapon

### Iran and the strategy of economic pain

Since the conflict began in **February 2026**, **Iran** has instrumentalized the threat to the **Strait of Hormuz** as a negotiating lever. The strategy is as old as oil geopolitics: create enough economic pain in the adversary so that they seek a diplomatic exit. By reaching European heating bills, **Tehran** hopes to fragment the Western coalition supporting the **United States** and **Israel**. It is a strategy of economic attrition as much as a military one.

The partial effectiveness of this strategy is measurable in the growing divergences between **Washington** and European capitals over conflict management. Several European governments — notably **Italy** and **Hungary** — have publicly advocated for an accelerated diplomatic track. Not out of affection for **Iran**, but because each week of conflict costs their economies billions of euros. **Iran** reads this vulnerability perfectly. And it does not hesitate to exploit it.

### The role of Saudi Arabia and the UAE: a neutrality with a price

**Saudi Arabia** and the **UAE**, which have maintained careful neutrality in the conflict, occupy a position of considerable power. They could increase their production to partially compensate for the deficit caused by the **Hormuz** disruption — but they have chosen so far to do so only sparingly, profiting from elevated prices to replenish their sovereign wealth funds. This strategy is rational from **Riyadh's** and **Abu Dhabi's** perspective, but it prolongs European suffering.

Ongoing negotiations between the **EU** and non-belligerent **Gulf** countries to secure additional supplies are running into demanding terms. **Saudi Arabia** wants commercial concessions, technology transfers in renewables, and implicit recognition of its role as a regional regulatory power. This is not a transaction; it is a redistribution of geopolitical rent. And **Europe**, negotiating from a position of weakness, holds few cards in its hand.

*I'm not certain that European leaders have fully internalized what it means to negotiate energy from a position of structural dependency. This isn't trade. It's submission dressed up in contracts. And as long as **Europe** has not resolved its intrinsic energy vulnerability, it will remain a geopolitical hostage to wars it did not choose.*

## Prospective scenarios: what could happen before the end of 2026?

### Scenario 1: Rapid de-escalation and return to normal

The **memorandum of understanding** signed in **Geneva** in June **2026** between the **United States** and **Iran** opens a **60-day** negotiating window. If this negotiation produces a definitive agreement before the end of summer, the **Strait of Hormuz** could be fully reopened by **September 2026**. In that case, energy prices would fall quickly, eurozone inflation would drop back toward **2.5%** by year-end, and the **ECB** could suspend its rate hikes, potentially considering a cautious cut in early **2027**. This is the scenario everyone needs — but no guarantee makes it probable.

The complexity of the agreement to be negotiated — nuclear program, ballistic missiles, Iranian regional militias, sanctions relief — is such that the **60 days** will likely not suffice. The experience of the **2015 JCPOA**, negotiated over nearly two years, gives the measure of the difficulty. And in a context of intense military and economic pressure, the psychology of Iranian negotiators is not one of gracious concession but of theatrical resistance until the last possible moment.

### Scenario 2: Prolonged stalemate and technical recession

If negotiations fail and the conflict drags on past autumn **2026**, the economic projections for **Europe** turn considerably darker. A **0.8%** annual growth projection does not survive an additional six months of elevated energy prices. The risk of a technical recession — two consecutive quarters of negative growth — becomes real for **Germany** and plausible for the eurozone as a whole. The **ECB**, caught between persistent inflation and a nascent recession, would face a strategic deadlock.

In this scenario, internal political tensions in **Europe** would intensify sharply. Populist parties — which always thrive on the economic pain of working classes — would gain ground. Pressures to break solidarity with the American war effort would intensify. And Western unity — the real strategic victory of these years — would be weakened by the combined effects of economic pain and demagoguery. That is precisely what both **Iran** — and **Russia**, watching the scene with undisguised satisfaction — are trying to provoke.

*The stalemate scenario is not the most probable — but it's not the most improbable either. And I prefer to look squarely at what it means: not just an economic recession, but a democratic recession. Economic pain fuels populism, which fuels fragmentation, which fuels capitulation. That is the real danger of this distant war on our European daily lives.*

## The structural lessons: toward a new energy architecture

### The forced acceleration of the energy transition

Paradoxically, the recurring energy crises since **2022** have produced a notable acceleration of investment in **renewable energy** in **Europe**. Installed solar capacity in the eurozone increased by **47%** between **2022** and **2025**. Offshore wind saw similar expansion. These figures are positive — but they also reveal a paradox: we invest massively in the transition when fossil fuel prices are high, then slow down when they fall. Every crisis gives us an acceleration, then we brake again as soon as the pain eases.

The Iranian conflict strengthens the argument for unconditional acceleration of the transition. Every **gigawatt** of solar or wind capacity installed in **Europe** is one less gigawatt of dependence on the geopolitical vagaries of the **Middle East**. The **REPowerEU** and **Green Deal** plans are regaining political momentum. But financing remains the crux — and in a context of elevated rates imposed by the **ECB**, the cost of capital for energy infrastructure projects is rising precisely when we would want to accelerate them. Another cruel paradox.

### Nuclear: the revenge of a long-sacrificed technology

The current crisis relaunches the nuclear debate with renewed vigor. **Sweden** has announced the construction of four new reactors by **2035**. **Belgium** extended its reactors by ten years after nearly shutting them down. The **Netherlands** is building two new plants. In **Poland**, the first civilian nuclear reactor is in active planning. This reversal of public and political opinion on nuclear power is one of the least expected — but most durable — consequences of the recurring energy crises.

**France**, which had maintained its fleet under political pressure for twenty years, emerges from this period with a considerable competitive advantage. Its program to build **six new EPR2 reactors** launched in **2023** represents a long-term investment that will pay off around **2035–2040**. This is not a solution for the **2026** crisis — reactors are not built in months. But it is proof that sound energy choices are made decades in advance, not in the panic of crisis summits.

***Nuclear power** was treated for twenty years as a dying technology — dangerous, incompatible with the future. It is coming back in force because reality put a simple question on the table: what produces decarbonized electricity in a stable way, independent of climate and geopolitical vagaries? The answer has not changed since **1960**. It was our fears that had changed. And wars return us to our realities.*

## The China-Iran axis: the systemic dimension of the economic conflict

### Beijing, the great beneficiary of Western disruption

While **Europe** suffers from rising energy prices, **China** is quietly negotiating oil supplies from **Iran** at massively discounted prices. **Beijing**, refusing to join sanctions against **Iran**, has been importing since the start of the conflict substantial volumes of Iranian crude at **$30 to $40 below market price** — a considerable windfall for its manufacturing economy. This energy cost asymmetry reinforces **China's** competitive advantage over European industries that are paying full global market price under strain.

This is a systemic dimension of the conflict that the **West** is analyzing with anxiety. The war in **Iran** is not merely a regional conflict — it is reconfiguring global trade flows to **China's** advantage, positioning it as a buyer of last resort for producers excluded from the Western financial system by sanctions. **Moscow** tested this model since **2022**. **Tehran** is confirming it. And **Beijing** benefits doubly: cheap energy plus the economic weakening of its Western competitors.

### An asymmetric economic war that the West must name

Western capitals are hesitant to explicitly name the systemic **economic war** dimension represented by the **China-Iran-Russia** convergence. Out of concern not to provoke further escalation, out of commercial pragmatism with **Beijing**, out of the complexity of the files. But this hesitation has a cost. It prevents the elaboration of a coherent long-term economic resilience strategy.

The **European Union** has engaged a policy of **de-risking** from **China** since **2023**, stopping short of full decoupling. This timid policy leaves European companies in uncertainty and exposes them to contradictory pressures. One day, European leaders will have to explain to their citizens that the war weighing on their heating bills is also a competition between economic and political systems from which **Europe** must emerge strengthened — not exhausted. This truth-telling is still awaited.

***China** is buying Iranian oil at knock-down prices while Europeans shiver under their heating bills. And meanwhile, we sell it our technologies, we depend on its components, we fund its solar equipment. Can someone explain to me how this is a coherent strategy? I ask sincerely, with no ready-made answer. Because I genuinely don't understand.*

## Prospects for exiting the crisis: between structural reform and political will

### The structural economic reforms needed in the eurozone

Exiting the current stagflation in the **eurozone** requires structural reforms that the **ECB** and monetary policies alone cannot accomplish. Governments must act on the supply side: diversify energy sources to reduce import dependency, invest in domestic industrial capacity for strategic sectors, and reform labor markets to address skilled workforce shortages in the energy transition sectors. These reforms take time — years, not months — and their effects unfold over long economic cycles.

In the short term, European governments must manage the tension between the need to support the most vulnerable households facing inflation and the imperative of budgetary consolidation imposed by European rules and financial markets. **Precise targeting** of aid — toward low-income households and the most exposed sectors rather than blanket subsidies — would maximize social impact while minimizing additional inflationary impact. **Well-targeted fiscal policy is an indispensable complement to monetary policy for managing this type of shock.**

### Europe's economic resilience: a generational project

Beyond the current crisis, **Europe's economic resilience** is a generational project. Energy dependence on Russian gas, revealed by the war, is being reduced — but slowly and at high cost. The European **Energy Union**, launched in **2015**, did not produce sufficient integration and diversification to absorb the 2022 shock. Lessons have been drawn — investments in **LNG** terminals, grid interconnections, and renewables are accelerating. But Europe's economic architecture remains vulnerable to external geopolitical shocks whose frequency is increasing.

Economic resilience is not built in the urgency of a crisis — it is planned in the years of relative calm that precede. European leaders who, in the 2010s, maintained dependence on Russian gas despite the warnings bore real responsibility for the current vulnerability. This lesson must guide today's investment decisions for the decade ahead: **geopolitics and economics are inseparable, and leaders who ignore this pay the price later, not now.**

*Europe's economic resilience is not automatic. It is built through difficult political choices: accepting higher short-term energy costs for long-term independence, investing in strategic industrial capacity even when not immediately profitable, coordinating national policies despite diverging interests. These choices demand European leadership that the current crisis is testing to its limits.*

## Conclusion: the war's invoice, or Europe facing itself

### A crisis that reveals rather than creates

**Inflation at 3.2%** in the eurozone in May **2026** and the **ECB** rate hike of **June 11** are not anomalies — they are the materialization of a structural vulnerability that **Europe** has never resolved. Every crisis since **2008** has revealed the same problem in a different form: a **European Union** that is economically integrated but politically fragmented, energy-dependent, strategically passive. The war in **Iran** did not create these weaknesses. It exposed them, once again, in the harsh light of energy prices.

The response that **Europe** gives to this crisis in the coming months will say much about what it truly wants to be. If it settles for buying time with subsidies, negotiating emergency supplies, and hoping the conflict ends quickly, it will have missed yet another historic opportunity to transform its vulnerability into strength. If it uses the pain of **2026** as a catalyst for an accelerated energy transition, a coherent industrial policy, and common crisis governance, it will emerge stronger. History will judge the choice made in the months ahead.

### The European citizen, between resignation and expectation

The European citizen is paying. Their bills, their credit, their frozen growth. They have every right to be angry. They also have the right to demand that this pain serves a purpose — that it finances a lasting transformation and not simply a return to the pre-crisis status quo. Democratic expectation is not refusing the necessary sacrifices to maintain a just international order against aggression — it is ensuring that these sacrifices truly serve long-term interests and not merely the short-term interests of those who hold capital and energy.

The **Iran war** will be resolved. Energy prices will fall. The **ECB** will cut rates again. But if in five years **Europe** finds itself just as dependent on the same strategic chokepoints, just as fragmented in its governance, just as vulnerable to external shocks — then we will have collectively chosen the comfort of forgetting over the intelligence of the lesson. And the next crisis will be even more painful. It always comes.

*I have no simple answer to offer. I know the situation is complex, the decisions difficult, the compromises inevitable. But I also know that **Europe** does not lack analyses, reports, or recommendations. What it lacks is the collective political will to implement them before the next war knocks at the door. And that will can only come if citizens demand it with force and consistency. It is in our hands.*

**By Maxime Marquette, columnist**

## Columnist's transparency note

### Editorial stance

I am not a journalist but a **columnist and analyst**. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies.

I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. **I claim analytical clarity**, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events.

### Method and sources

This text keeps the basic distinction between **verified facts and interpretive analysis**. The rule never changes: a factual claim is published only when a verifiable source supports it, and the sources this article actually used are listed under **Sources**, never here.

**Primary source families** used by the publication, when the story has them: official statements from governments and international institutions, public statements by political leaders, reports from intergovernmental organisations, dispatches from recognised international news agencies.

**Secondary source families**: specialised publications, internationally recognised news media, analyses from established research institutions, reports from industry organisations.

When an article cites statistical, economic or geopolitical data, it comes from the institutions that produce it (intergovernmental organisations, central banks, national statistics offices), and the exact institution is named under **Sources**.

### Nature of the analysis

The analyses, interpretations and perspectives in the analytical sections of this article are a **critical, contextual synthesis** based on the information available, the trends observed and the expert comments cited in the sources consulted.

My role is to interpret these facts, to set them in the context of today's geopolitical and economic dynamics, and to give them a coherent meaning within the larger story of the changes shaping our time. These analyses reflect expertise built through continuous observation of international affairs and an understanding of the strategic mechanisms that drive global actors.

This article describes a documented state of affairs on its publication date, not a prediction: later developments may shift its outlook. No update is promised in advance; when an article is corrected or completed, the change is dated in the text.

## Sources

### Primary sources

- [European Central Bank — Monetary policy decision of June 11, 2026, 25 bp hike — June 11, 2026](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260611~4d41bd5e83.en.html)

- [Euronews — ECB raises interest rates for the first time in three years as Iran war fuels inflation — June 11, 2026](https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/06/11/ecb-raises-interest-rates-for-the-first-time-in-three-years-as-iran-war-fuels-inflation)

- [CNBC — Eurozone inflation climbs to 3.2%, driven by energy costs tied to the Iran war — June 2, 2026](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/02/inflation-euro-zone-iran-energy-costs.html)

- [The Brussels Times — Rising energy costs push euro inflation to 3.2%, ECB head cautions — June 2026](https://www.brusselstimes.com/eu-affairs/2204032/rising-energy-costs-push-euro-inflation-to-3-2-ecb-head-cautions/)

### Secondary sources

- [The Guardian — ECB raises eurozone interest rates as Iran war fuels inflation — June 11, 2026](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/11/ecb-eurozone-interest-rates-iran-war-inflation)

- [Ground News — Inflation hits 3.2% in the euro zone as Iran war pushes energy costs higher — June 2026](https://ground.news/article/inflation-hits-32-in-the-euro-zone-as-iran-war-pushes-energy-costs-higher)

- Foreign Policy — The Iran war and Europe's energy vulnerability — June 2026

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Source: Maxime Marquette, MadMax. When citing, name the author and link https://mad-max.co/en/article/analyse-inflation-a-3-2-en-zone-euro-la-guerre-en-iran-s-est-invitee-dans-votre